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Dev blog: Building better Worlds

First post First post First post
Author
Querns
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1721 - 2014-04-25 15:07:26 UTC
Destiven Mare wrote:
A significant number of subscribers are clamoring for a dev blog in this series and instead CCP issues a fluff piece on one of their own??!!

http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/developer-spotlight-goliath/

I have zero issue with Goliath; I am curious to know whether this "dev blog" is a calculated move on CCP's part to further inflame industrialists or just more evidence of an utterly and absurdly inept PR department inside CCP.

CCP Eterne is a "Community Representative and Live Events Author for EVE Online." I kinda doubt he (she?) has much of a hand in the industry changes. Devblogs aren't some sort of scarce resource that require the entire output of the company to pen -- they can have their non-developer and non-designer folks put out devblogs without somehow choking off the potential for others.

That being said, I feel your weariness.

This post was crafted by the wormhole expert of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#1722 - 2014-04-25 15:14:39 UTC
Querns wrote:
Korthan Doshu wrote:

Just depends on how quickly the formula scales up, right? If it only takes ten items to get to max or if POSs contribute to systemwide congestion, things get much hairier for today's solo indy alt corp people. We just need to see numbers to see whether this is nullsec-highsec balance or a highsec nerf.

Yeah, I don't know the formula so it's hard to say how available 0% congestion manufacturing stations will be. Frankly, that's not the RAM type I'd be worried about -- it's copying that is probably gonna be the pisser. Manufacturing slots are just not that rare; I regularly run jobs 1-2j from Jita once a month or less, and I never have problems finding open slots today. Granted, this is not the BEST comparison, but it speaks to the prevalence of manufacturing facilities and its general demand. With the removal of remote copying at a POS, copy stations and offices are gonna be in high demand in highsec. I expect congestion to creep up pretty quick on those.

One thing's for sure though -- people with balls of steel who are willing to toss expensive BPOs into a POS to copy or do materials research are gonna get paid. Well, until someone finds their pos, I guess. Risk vs reward is a wonderful thing.


Yeah, fair enough on the point that copying will be important. But all that is still just to say that whether highsec is completely nerfed or just balanced depends on the numbers for the congestion formula.
Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#1723 - 2014-04-25 15:17:21 UTC
Korthan Doshu wrote:
Querns wrote:
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:

Yes, a flat tax hurts only the ones at the lower end of the economic spectrum, and this is what we are dealing with here.
The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.

Plus, the concept that somehow barriers to entry to being an industrialist will be lowered with these changes is just plain wrong. Sure, having more space opened up for POS's is going to allow more people to dabble in industry. But the upfront costs of building a POS are staying the same, if not going higher. And if the null sec cartel propagandists are to be believed, there was never a problem getting high sec mfg slots. But now, everyone who operates with a few jumps of a trade hub is getting hammered with huge fee increases.

I ran an order last day for 5 run BPC from an LP store. The cost for the 39 minute job was 1219 ISK. Based on the new regime, at the 14% rate, which the system I was in will surely get hit with, the same 39 minute job will cost 91.7 million ISK, based in the in-game valuation tool of the final product's sell price. That was an increase of over 75,000 times.

To put that in perspective, that works out to 141 million ISK per hour, per NPC mfg slot. It costs 108 million in fuel a month at present prices to run a small POS which can easily handle a couple assembly arrays. So yeah, if you can afford the upfront costs of a POS, PLUS find an open slot in the stampede (I already stated that the goons and their RvB slaves will be deadzoning entire systems by putting up small unfueled POS's, simply by using an army of alt corps), plus you can handle the risk of catastrophic BPO corp theft, a POS will be much less onerous.

But that is NOT lowering the barrier to entry, especially when the cartels are being handed an system that encourages full-on predatory pricing to crush high sec industry.

This vignette assumes that the industrialist in question is, for some reason, unwilling to leave the trade hub. If you spread out, you will find less congested services, suffer fewer fees, and increase your margin for your diligence. This is kind of the whole point of the change.

Also, regarding your POS spam scenario, have you stopped to consider how unfeasible that would be, even for us? 13400 moons are opening up in highsec. To tower them all with small towers at 65m per tower would cost 871 billion isk. Additionally, the supply available on the market or that can be manufactured with PI goods is maybe 1/20 of what we'd need, if that. (Mental math based on eyeballing eve-central before I head off for work, may be wrong.) We can extract a significantly better ratio of ISK to suffering by, say, burning Jita.


Just depends on how quickly the formula scales up, right? If it only takes ten items to get to max or if POSs contribute to systemwide congestion, things get much hairier for today's solo indy alt corp people. We just need to see numbers to see whether this is nullsec-highsec balance or a highsec nerf.


Given my costing scenario, let's assume I move all my manufacturing the furthest reaches of high sec. (Because my time is infinite and has no value). Let's further assume that I am paying, oh, I dunno, 3% in this hinterland. I am still faced with over a 15,000 fold increase on my costs, or around 30 million ISK / hour / NPC mfg slot.

Let's further examine someone who has built say, T1 Domi's at an NPC station. Now, the option of them moving far away to avoid high slot costs is impossible, because moving packaged Domi's in a freighter long distance is just a mess.
So let's say this hypothetical Domi builder has a BPO PE of 10 and manufactures at a NPC slot.
At current prices in Amarr, a Domi has an average of buy/sell of around 180 million, so will use that as the valuation.
Because hauling is so dangerous and such a huge pain, the builder is far enough away to incur a 10% tax.
It takes about 3 hours, 15 min to build the Domi at the station. He is now looking at a slot cost of 5.5 million / hour / slot to build at the station. If he runs 10 slots , that is 55 million / hour.

So let's say he moves even further out, and incurs ONLY a 5% tax. He is now looking at around 2.8 million / hour / NPC mfg slot , to run a single char in battleship manufacturing. If he runs 24 hours a day, with say 1 char = 10 slots, which is on the low end of a manufacturing setup, he is faced with taxes of 672 million ISK / day.

Let me break that down again:
One char
10 manufacturing slots on that char, running 24 hours/day, which is not abnormal
10 slots * 24 hours = 240 slot hours / day
Uses NPC station
NPC station slot tax is 5%
Makes Domi's, which have a valuation of 180 million
Manufacturing time is 3.25 hours per ship.
180 million * 5% = 9 million tax / 3.25 hours = 2.8 million tax / hour / slot
240 slot hours * 2.8 million tax / hour / slot = 672 million in taxes / day

Manufacturing at an NPC station now is utterly impossible to be profitable.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1724 - 2014-04-25 15:24:05 UTC
you should face an increase, it is absurd that costs used to be amounts of isk so small they are rounding errors even to newbies

like that's a normal and expected part of this rebalance: slot fees should matter. it'll just get passed onto the consumer.

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#1725 - 2014-04-25 15:39:45 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
you should face an increase, it is absurd that costs used to be amounts of isk so small they are rounding errors even to newbies

like that's a normal and expected part of this rebalance: slot fees should matter. it'll just get passed onto the consumer.


Right, sure.
Spoken by the guy who gets an 18% discount on his mineral costs, plus has been told by the dev's that null sec station slots costs will be significantly below high sec station slot costs.
Who will be able to price out any high sec competition in any market you choose.
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#1726 - 2014-04-25 15:43:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Korthan Doshu
Big assumptions on the tax rate Dinsdale, big assumptions. We need to see numbers.

EDIT: I mean, it might turn out to be a huge nerf. But it's just too early to know with any certainty (certainly not with the kind of confidence that has led Mord Fiddler to shut down, for example).
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1727 - 2014-04-25 15:44:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Weaselior
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
Right, sure.
Spoken by the guy who gets an 18% discount on his mineral costs, plus has been told by the dev's that null sec station slots costs will be significantly below high sec station slot costs.
Who will be able to price out any high sec competition in any market you choose.

i got told whatnow?

i mean, i assume that an upgraded amarr station (which can be upgraded to 230 slots) should ramp up much slower to 14% than a highsec 50 slot station because anything else would be ridiculous, but i'm still waiting on the actual details and i may be dissapointed.

however given that it starts at zero percent, and knowing how vast highsec is and that virtually every system has a station, I'm pretty sure there's going to be plenty of low-cost slots in highsec - just not right next to jita

(our discount on mineral costs though is not 18%: it's 20% if you ignore pos refineries, 15.4% if you don't)

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Takara Mora
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#1728 - 2014-04-25 15:46:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Takara Mora
Commander Venture wrote:
Lors Dornick wrote:
This will be fun.

Thank you CCP (and possibly CSM).

The age of Aquarius is over, this is the age of Vulcan ;)



Actually if I had to name this expansion, it'd be after Vulcanus, smith of the ancient Roman gods. Like industry in EVE, he was the unwanted child that still got the job done, the Tyrion Lannister of the Roman pantheon.





A better name: EVE CONTRACTION

- Obsoleting of POS research labs (mobile labs)
- Obsoleting of Faction Standings
- Obsoleting of Drone Interfacing V skill
- T2 Drone nerfs

Have we heard about anything actually being ADDED yet? Or just many of the deeper and long term mechanics (longer training time skills, longer term achievements like Faction Standings) being made more short term / less worth while?
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1729 - 2014-04-25 15:47:22 UTC
wait you're still trying to cover your hilarious mistake of complaining ccp yitterbum had insider info aren't you

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#1730 - 2014-04-25 15:49:20 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
Right, sure.
Spoken by the guy who gets an 18% discount on his mineral costs, plus has been told by the dev's that null sec station slots costs will be significantly below high sec station slot costs.
Who will be able to price out any high sec competition in any market you choose.

i got told whatnow?

i mean, i assume that an upgraded amarr station (which can be upgraded to 230 slots) should ramp up much slower to 14% than a highsec 50 slot station because anything else would be ridiculous, but i'm still waiting on the actual details and i may be dissapointed.

however given that it starts at zero percent, and knowing how vast highsec is and that virtually every system has a station, I'm pretty sure there's going to be plenty of low-cost slots in highsec - just not right next to jita


Please....the dev's have made it explicitly clear that null sec stations and POS's will enjoy far lower mfg costs that high sec because of this ridiculous idea that sov null sec has more inherent risk than high sec.

If CCP came out and said, "yeah, NPC null and wh space are going to have a minor edge over high sec in mfg, with low sec somewhere in between, because NPC null sec and wh space is the wild west", maybe I could buy into this whole disaster that coming down the road.

But that is not the case.

And with that, I am off to do real work, and try to lower my blood pressure.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#1731 - 2014-04-25 15:51:11 UTC
Korthan Doshu wrote:
TLDR: Surely this isn't mainly about ISK sinks, it's about highsec and nullsec.
CUT: AWESOME, Amazing, cogent, econmoic analysis.... so rare to see such a long post, from someone that clearly "gets it". Thanks.



Okay, perhaps it is a high/null re-balance. I had seen (and agreed with) the idea of drastically reducing high sec station slots and upping the null outpost slots.

I could see where they do NOT want to cut high sec slots. They do nt want the VERY significant portion of the player base that lives in high sec, and is NEVER going to move out, to log in, try to play, find nothing to do.... then drop their subscriptions.

This is why high sec belts are never going to go away (or even be nerfed back to teh point they were all mined out). Lack of high sec resources does NOT push people to null, it pushes them out of the game.

So, much higher slot prices would ensure that they are not "totally blocked", just lower profit.


However, if it were ONLY about re-balance, then why apply the cost structure to null at all? 14% cost added to high sec, 0% to null. Then the cost/risk of shipping goods into high sec would be sure to be rewarded with higher profit margins. Some things are easy enough to move to justify the profit, while other items (ammo) are too big and cheap (ammo), that people would not build in null and move it in.



What I do think you are definitely onto is that there is a shift in CCP thinking on the way of implimenting risk v. reward. Previous attempts focused on buffing null. Those were largely disasters as it exploded isk creation and concentration. If I could suddenly make twice as much ISK ratting null, the bosses with the titans doubled my rent. My profits didn't really change that much, but the wallets of the bosses got way fatter, very quickly.

So, now they are looking for ways to "rebalance" that do nto involve buffing null, but rather nerfing high.... which is what has the high sec player base (a huge portion of CCP's income) so concerned.



Perhaps CCP could finally do something about the #1 bat to teh head of null profitability... the cloaky camper.

What good is it that I can make 2x the isk/hr in null, if I spend over half my time sitting in station because there is NOTHING that can be done about a cloaky camper. Give us something, anything, that makes it possible to hunt down and kill a claoky camper! Poof, null sec profitability skyrockets!!!
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#1732 - 2014-04-25 15:56:30 UTC
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
Right, sure.
Spoken by the guy who gets an 18% discount on his mineral costs, plus has been told by the dev's that null sec station slots costs will be significantly below high sec station slot costs.
Who will be able to price out any high sec competition in any market you choose.

i got told whatnow?

i mean, i assume that an upgraded amarr station (which can be upgraded to 230 slots) should ramp up much slower to 14% than a highsec 50 slot station because anything else would be ridiculous, but i'm still waiting on the actual details and i may be dissapointed.

however given that it starts at zero percent, and knowing how vast highsec is and that virtually every system has a station, I'm pretty sure there's going to be plenty of low-cost slots in highsec - just not right next to jita


Please....the dev's have made it explicitly clear that null sec stations and POS's will enjoy far lower mfg costs that high sec because of this ridiculous idea that sov null sec has more inherent risk than high sec.

If CCP came out and said, "yeah, NPC null and wh space are going to have a minor edge over high sec in mfg, with low sec somewhere in between, because NPC null sec and wh space is the wild west", maybe I could buy into this whole disaster that coming down the road.

But that is not the case.

And with that, I am off to do real work, and try to lower my blood pressure.


So, I just ran some numbers to see what a round trip between Jita and VFK costs. It's about 45 million ISK (JF, level 4 on all skills, rounded up). Now, they might not actually do the manufacturing in VFK itself. But it's a starting point. Now also assuming that they can put only a billion ISK in the JF because of the slowboating from jump-in to Jita proper. That means for a round trip of one billion ISK they're paying 45 million or 4.5%. Assuming you can get down to 5% slot fees in HS pretty easily after the changes, I really don't expect the manufacturers of deep sov immediately killing us HSers. But that's if we're doing "pull numbers out of our butts and make wild assumptions" games.
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#1733 - 2014-04-25 16:03:34 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Korthan Doshu wrote:
TLDR: Surely this isn't mainly about ISK sinks, it's about highsec and nullsec.
CUT: AWESOME, Amazing, cogent, econmoic analysis.... so rare to see such a long post, from someone that clearly "gets it". Thanks.



Okay, perhaps it is a high/null re-balance. I had seen (and agreed with) the idea of drastically reducing high sec station slots and upping the null outpost slots.

I could see where they do NOT want to cut high sec slots. They do nt want the VERY significant portion of the player base that lives in high sec, and is NEVER going to move out, to log in, try to play, find nothing to do.... then drop their subscriptions.

This is why high sec belts are never going to go away (or even be nerfed back to teh point they were all mined out). Lack of high sec resources does NOT push people to null, it pushes them out of the game.

So, much higher slot prices would ensure that they are not "totally blocked", just lower profit.


However, if it were ONLY about re-balance, then why apply the cost structure to null at all? 14% cost added to high sec, 0% to null. Then the cost/risk of shipping goods into high sec would be sure to be rewarded with higher profit margins. Some things are easy enough to move to justify the profit, while other items (ammo) are too big and cheap (ammo), that people would not build in null and move it in.



What I do think you are definitely onto is that there is a shift in CCP thinking on the way of implimenting risk v. reward. Previous attempts focused on buffing null. Those were largely disasters as it exploded isk creation and concentration. If I could suddenly make twice as much ISK ratting null, the bosses with the titans doubled my rent. My profits didn't really change that much, but the wallets of the bosses got way fatter, very quickly.

So, now they are looking for ways to "rebalance" that do nto involve buffing null, but rather nerfing high.... which is what has the high sec player base (a huge portion of CCP's income) so concerned.



Perhaps CCP could finally do something about the #1 bat to teh head of null profitability... the cloaky camper.

What good is it that I can make 2x the isk/hr in null, if I spend over half my time sitting in station because there is NOTHING that can be done about a cloaky camper. Give us something, anything, that makes it possible to hunt down and kill a claoky camper! Poof, null sec profitability skyrockets!!!


I wouldn't say it's only about the highsec-nullsec balance, but I think that's the biggest factor here. I think the main reason to export the cost scaling to nullsec would be that 1) slots are a big problem for null and 2) without slots OR scaling costs, null manufacturers could just do everything in null hubs. I think they want to put the null industrialists on an even playing field with high, not make it easy for the goons to turn VFK into an industrialist utopia.
Flay Nardieu
#1734 - 2014-04-25 16:05:19 UTC
I pose the question to those it would affect:

Do player/ organizations feel the need or want scalability in their player owned structure?

The more general question, Unless I'm way out of date office slots are finite in both NPC and Player stations, How could a corporation even use pooled assets without an office?

Seriously current configuration allows a corp to get an office at a station without the research and/or manufacturing slots and do the actual work remotely from at a starbase from the station office
Querns
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1735 - 2014-04-25 16:08:35 UTC
Korthan Doshu wrote:
But that's if we're doing "pull numbers out of our butts and make wild assumptions" games.

This is a pretty popular game on eve-o.

This post was crafted by the wormhole expert of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

Querns
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1736 - 2014-04-25 16:10:40 UTC
I guess I should clarify; Korthan Doshu, I wasn't saying your numbers were inherently bad or anything, just making a general statement about eve-o. The fact that you've cottoned on to one of the major additional expenses inherent in nullsec production puts you above the majority of the posters in this thread.

This post was crafted by the wormhole expert of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#1737 - 2014-04-25 16:15:34 UTC
Flay Nardieu wrote:
@LHA Tarawa

It is specifically stated as a taxes

Quote:
Station (POS) owners will be charged parts of the running costs (taxes), other parts are outside the owners control. Total costs will never be zero. More information in an upcoming blog.
(section of OP)



Read again.

The "tax" is what players will control, and that money goes to the station owner. The part they do not control will be the "cost" that serves as an ISK drain to remove ISK from the game (if goes nowhere).

Flay Nardieu wrote:

There are already Lore associated and logical isk sinks in the game every order buy or sell has fees and or taxes, services provided only or in the majority by NPC groups and stations.


But they are too small to sufficient.


Flay Nardieu wrote:


And referencing back to quoted line from the original post, cost is never zero to begin with there are always costs and is always under some degree of control even so far as to limit production or suspend/cancel it in entirety. Some of the economic hyperboley posted by various people would have private business owners in coughing fits from laughing so hard.


Because most business owners are focused on micro-economics, which is intuitive. What we're dealing with on large scale is macro-economics, and that is very often counter-intuitive because of the massive feed back loops. Economists call it the paradox of thrift. What is good at the micro level, such as spending less than you earn, is bad to impossible at the macro level, where total spending must equal total income and savings is just a drain of money from active circulation that can only be replaced by borrowing new money into existence.

Most of the economic hyperbole comes from the people that are focused on micro-economics, and do not understand macro-economics. I can't tell you how many people I've encountered that dismiss macro-economic mathematically tautology as "Liberal hogwash" or "Keynesian Nonsense).
Kaius Fero
#1738 - 2014-04-25 16:19:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Kaius Fero
Querns wrote:
yada yada

"This post was crafted by a member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay."

Go figure :|

Anselmo & The Illegals

Omnathious Deninard
Ministry of Silly Walks.
#1739 - 2014-04-25 16:19:20 UTC
CCP Ytterbium, the 5% reduction is a good addition for POS manufacturing but will you be removing the 10% penalty for T2 ship production at a POS?

If you don't follow the rules, neither will I.

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#1740 - 2014-04-25 16:22:12 UTC
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
you should face an increase, it is absurd that costs used to be amounts of isk so small they are rounding errors even to newbies

like that's a normal and expected part of this rebalance: slot fees should matter. it'll just get passed onto the consumer.


Right, sure.
Spoken by the guy who gets an 18% discount on his mineral costs, plus has been told by the dev's that null sec station slots costs will be significantly below high sec station slot costs.
Who will be able to price out any high sec competition in any market you choose.



There is risk/cost associated with moving goods from null to high sec.


Yes, the small, high value items will get produced in null and moved in. jump freighter loads of small ammo is NOT going to be shipped in from null, even with a 14% lower slot cost.