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market stabilization question
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350125GO
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2014-04-08 16:39:59 UTC
Not sure the title matches the question, but here it is.

Several T2 mods I produce were trading at a decent profit last month for a few weeks straight. Then the race to the bottom began, and now they're trading at a much worse margin.

Example. Module 1 is normally near 1,100,000 p/u in Jita with steady sales. Race to bottom happened and is now trading at under 900,000 p/u with the same volume trading.

I've seen this happen over the years but have never really identified the pattern.

My question is, how long does it usually take ( I know that can't be answered specifically, so general ideas please) for an item to re-stabilize and go back to the normal trading prices?

The mod trades about 1500 units a day.

Is there a website or app that tracks these sorts of trends?

You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it.
TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#2 - 2014-04-08 17:39:09 UTC
Try the tools supplied by http://www.vahrokh.com/ for analyses.

A thing that could be happening; people take profit by dumping, when their cycle of speculation has ended, they simply dump to leave the market. You wont win that race, ever.

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
350125GO
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2014-04-08 19:41:19 UTC
thanks for the info. It's hard to tell if this is a dump, or a trend. With one mod I'm trading in it appears someone is dumping as there are more than one sell order of 1000 or more units, which means I'll either have to stockpile or stop producing to ride it out. With the other module(s) it's a little less clear, though it's definitely selling at lower than average prices.

You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it.
TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#4 - 2014-04-08 22:59:24 UTC
350125GO wrote:
thanks for the info. It's hard to tell if this is a dump, or a trend. With one mod I'm trading in it appears someone is dumping as there are more than one sell order of 1000 or more units, which means I'll either have to stockpile or stop producing to ride it out. With the other module(s) it's a little less clear, though it's definitely selling at lower than average prices.



Stockpiling is the way to go, if you can afford, maybe the other player is counting on that, so be carefull. Also, do a show info on the order (buy or sell 1 item of the competition), google his char, does he post in EVE forums? does he post on marketing blogs? If so, with what kind of information, know your competition.

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#5 - 2014-04-08 23:41:54 UTC
350125GO wrote:
Not sure the title matches the question, but here it is.

Several T2 mods I produce were trading at a decent profit last month for a few weeks straight. Then the race to the bottom began, and now they're trading at a much worse margin.

Example. Module 1 is normally near 1,100,000 p/u in Jita with steady sales. Race to bottom happened and is now trading at under 900,000 p/u with the same volume trading.

I've seen this happen over the years but have never really identified the pattern.

My question is, how long does it usually take ( I know that can't be answered specifically, so general ideas please) for an item to re-stabilize and go back to the normal trading prices?

The mod trades about 1500 units a day.

Is there a website or app that tracks these sorts of trends?



Ah, Magnetic Field Stabilizer IIs. I'm in that market too (as a producer and small time trader).

I noticed a short term opportunity where they were selling at wildly different prices in different regions and were more profitable than usual, and exported over a thousand from Dodixie to Hek as well as building a thousand or so and commissioning a third party to build nearly a thousand more of them.

I'm a small market player. Someone with more capital than me probably noticed "hey, these are above historical average prices and very profitable, let's muscle in on this market". Where I had 16 or 17 lines inventing them and 30-40 producing, these larger players probably had 60-180 lines each on them.

Hell, the person that I paid to produce from my spare BPCs probably started inventing their own too.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
350125GO
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#6 - 2014-04-09 13:33:35 UTC
I figured I might need to stockpile, but am also concerned that the market won't recover. I'm currently trading in Jita, but may just need to move some stuff to Amarr or Rens/Hek for a while.

Fortunately I can afford to do both. Since I'm not set up with an army of alts I'll wait the market out a bit so I don't have to spend a lot of time moving goods and moving to distant regions to update orders.

You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it.
TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#7 - 2014-04-09 19:36:45 UTC
350125GO wrote:
I figured I might need to stockpile, but am also concerned that the market won't recover. I'm currently trading in Jita, but may just need to move some stuff to Amarr or Rens/Hek for a while.

Fortunately I can afford to do both. Since I'm not set up with an army of alts I'll wait the market out a bit so I don't have to spend a lot of time moving goods and moving to distant regions to update orders.


If want to liquidate faster, you could considering selling your stock to someone who is more spread out, like the char above, or the one pushing you out of market. The isk freed up will escribe money faster.

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Herzyr
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#8 - 2014-04-09 21:40:54 UTC
In my experience, the market takes quite a bit of time to recover. Do you like sitting on old stock for a ''eventual'' profit or do you want your items to move NOW?

I'd say you are better off dumping your stock for a minimum margin or (hopefully) minuscule loses. I have kept track of markets that used to be profitable and I decided to sell of my stock rather than wait and so far, 1+month waiting, the margins are still horrible on that certain item :/
Syds Sinclair
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2014-04-11 20:30:52 UTC
..I don't recommend stockpiling, as you could most likely earn more ISK from freeing up your capital and utilizing it somewhere else in the time it takes you to realize your projected profits once that items market bounces back. If it ever bounces back.

I'd check the prices for that item is some of the other trade hubs and if it is profitable, create a currier contract and post it to the Hauler's Channel. A pilot from there will move your goods very quickly, and for a reasonable rate.

♠ Sinclair Consulting ♠