Market Discussions

I doubt it will go down, but then I doubt it will go up much. It might prior to the change due to speculation and hoarding, but after the change everything will be about the same.

This is the best and most true post you have ever made on these fine forums.

I strongly suspect it will affect the more expensive minerals more than the cheapies. It doesn't take long to mine tremendous quantities of trit. Recyclers may out number miners, but takes a LOT of people recycling to equal what one guy can mine in a mack in an hour- and there's a LOT of macks out there mining scordite and veldspar in high sec. I wonder if you don't realize just how many miners there are in high sec. And in many systems all they have to mine is scordite and veldspar. They still strip them. We're talking many many belts, many many systems every day. The percentage of minerals used in high sec that come from reprocessing vs. mining has got to be much higher in noxium and megacyte than the cheapest minerals. Obviously a lot larger raw quantity of trit comes from reprocessing (and a lot more is needed as well), but it's a drop in the ocean compared to trit mined versus the rarer minerals that are maybe more of a drop in a Solo cup. OK, that's a bad analogy, I'm sure both are more than a drop, but you get the idea.

Due to the OCD psyche of miners combined with the fact that, with enough effort, ore yields can be slightly higher (theoretically significantly higher in upgraded null stations) than they are now I don't think trit prices will skyrocket. Even an increase of 1 ISK is, percentage-wise, a pretty huge gain. 950 nox is much more realistic than 10 trit (or even 7 trit for that matter). Personally, I think trit is more likely to stay the same or slightly decrease than it is to go up, as even a slight ore yield gain may be able to offset the recycling loss. Or will there be enough ore refined in null for those potentially large yield gains to come into play?

A big question is what percentage of minerals go into capital and supercapital production (or large battleship operations in null for that matter). If it's high then we probably will see some level 3 stations where I think they get ore yields like 115%-120% compared to what they are now, so that could offset A LOT of lost repossessed mod minerals. OR, and this is a cool possibility, if any group started LARGE scale ore refinement in null to re-import back into high sec. It would be pretty awesome to see a convoy of 80 freighters with a heavy carrier escort (also full of compressed ore or minerals) moving through null and back. If you could turn profits of even 15% on something that's as scalable as ore and minerals, although still maybe unlikely for someone to do, it could be possible. It's probably one of the most scalable business a multi-trillionaire could get into. Maybe takes too many people/accounts to get enough volume to make it worth the effort though, I really don't know.

One unknown factor, as in real life, is besides what effect this actually has, is what effect is it perceived to have? Whether in EVE or in the stock market knowing when to sell is often harder than picking winners. The run up to this change, that will be even more important, and even harder to predict. Even if I'm right we could see mineral prices shoot up if everyone agrees with you, regardless of who's right. If that happens, whatever you do, don't be afraid to sell. I hope it works for you (well... not really; I don't really want higher mineral prices, but I don't wish anyone to lose ISK is the point), but if trit gets to 6-6.5 just enjoy your profit (personally I'd dump at 5.5, but then I wouldn't invest in it in the first place). It ain't gonna get to 10. Of that I'm sure. Just remember if you do make some money, then it goes way back down, any token of gratitude for my wisdom will, as always, be much appreciated. It would be no fun sitting on that much trit if it did hit 6.5, only to fall down to 4 a couple months later, even though I wouldn't count on it spiking in the first place. OR, even if I'm wrong does everybody have huge piles of junk scattered around the galaxy that they're gonna reprocess now while they can and push prices down? Just how big is the collective pile of junk that everyone just kinda puts off doing something with? A few trillion worth of minerals? 20? 50? More!?!?? I'm sure it's huge in any case, but how huge is difficult to know or even guess at. If everybody liquidated that would be a hell of a thing. If you've got your finger on the pulse of the big industrialists and market movers maybe you have some chance of predicting the former "feeling"; the later size of the junk pile you'll just have to guess though. I'm not even gonna try to answer either.

Disclosure: I have no large mineral investments; I'm not confident that this couldn't go either way... or nowhere. I do think nox (or maybe even isogen) is a much better shot than trit though if I were to make a play at it. Although my theory about their recycling impact is correct, but the collective "junk reserve" is big enough and gets liquidated, they very well could be the worst investment- at least for awhile. That's why I'm sitting this one out.

Less minerals from missions and rats, min prices go up. Min prices go up, more people mine, which means less people shooting rats. Less people shooting rats means less ISK in the economy. Less ISK in the economy means ISK is worth more, thus negating the increase in mineral prices.

How quickly that happens, how it manifests, much less what the price of anything might be three months down the road, is anyone's best guess.

unlikely to happen in hisec, but you never know...

Are you sure on that one? With compressed ore mainly being marketed to null (and WH) space, they would likely pay higher for compressed ore than the value of the minerals refined in high sec, as they would be getting more out of it refining in null. In the same way, I'd expect high sec players to want more for the compressed form of ore since they would have to have a POS to create it.

So after the change, compressed veld with trit at 5/unit, would be worth around 3.45m reprocessed in high sec. In null, it would be worth 3.93m. I'd expect the price of compressed ore to fall somewhere in the middle of those, so 3.7m ish. [Note, figures here are examples only, based on approximate values].

While I agree the demand for minerals will not decrease, I don't suppose it will increase by a staggering amount either, and any increase it does have will undoubtedly be suppressed by the enormous stockpiling that's already started.

Is this, "minerals from thin air" confirmed or just the result of the formulas?

Only takes one line of code to eliminate magic minerals:

if (refine_rate > 100) refine_rate == 100;



If CCP allows minerals to be created from thin air, then they are doing it wrong.

People keep saying 20%. Where is that % coming from? From what I've seen it will be an increase of 14.4% over high sec max. Or do you mean 20% more than is current, with high sec also receiving more at maximum?

Refine rates round the board are being reduced, and to compensate miners the amount of minerals refined from ore is being increased.

According to the dev blog Veldspar is gaining 38.3 percent more Tritanium, multiply that by 72.4 percent (best high sec station refine post patch) and you get 1.001292 times current the Tritanium you can get right now from Veldspar with a 100 percent refine, using an 86 percent refine you get about 1.18 times the Tritanium you can today.

Well they kind of are. Stockpile your ore now and refine in maxed minmatar outpost after the patch and you will get more than pre patch.