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The Post-Oxytopes World

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Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#121 - 2011-11-14 18:44:22 UTC
Well, Weaslior, you originally asked the MD "pseudointellectuals" to comment on the market impact of GoonSwarm Shrugged, and, after reading back through the posts, it is clear that you (and the other Goons, who mostly opted to troll) didn't care much for the responses which you received.

Sorry that no one here seems willing to just outright proclaim it all a great Goon victory, one for the history books, but, take it as you will. Many of us just don't take it all quite as... personally, I guess... as you Goon role players seem to do, and trolling does eventually get rather boring. I'm sure you'll get plenty of, and more positive, support for your POV from other sides of the Eve community.

Regards... and good luck with GoonSwarm Shrugged.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#122 - 2011-11-14 18:55:37 UTC
regrettably your analysis has been full of easily-debunked holes, I was hoping for analysis that could not be disproven within seconds

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.
Bernard Schuyler
Thundererz
#123 - 2011-11-14 19:10:51 UTC
jm24 wrote:

Another question is will the price not actually recede, and will other isotopes actually rise to match the markets willingness to pay for isotopes. Perhaps this interdiction will have far reaching consequences beyond what is apparent.



Perhaps, but isn't it equally likely that people expect this to be a short to mid-term bubble, and are eating the increased cost as part of doing businesss? That doesn't necessarily imply that everything would continue as normal if this were a permanent change, or if all four isotopes were to match this price.

Although there is certainly anecdotal evidence to suggest there is a glut of isk in the game, which could support higher prices... but still that is a much bigger issue and I do not think that a spike in one commodity can predict that.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#124 - 2011-11-14 19:36:03 UTC
"operate at a loss" is a dumb idea, you would need to expend significant effort to turn valuble fuel into less valuble things

you could argue these pos farm owners have stockpiles, but that's just not understanding oppurtunity cost (and to be fair, that's possible, eve players are idiots)

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.
jm24
CRICE Corp
#125 - 2011-11-14 19:37:16 UTC
Bernard Schuyler wrote:
jm24 wrote:

Another question is will the price not actually recede, and will other isotopes actually rise to match the markets willingness to pay for isotopes. Perhaps this interdiction will have far reaching consequences beyond what is apparent.



Perhaps, but isn't it equally likely that people expect this to be a short to mid-term bubble, and are eating the increased cost as part of doing businesss? That doesn't necessarily imply that everything would continue as normal if this were a permanent change, or if all four isotopes were to match this price.

Although there is certainly anecdotal evidence to suggest there is a glut of isk in the game, which could support higher prices... but still that is a much bigger issue and I do not think that a spike in one commodity can predict that.

To classify this as a bubble would be misleading, the market prices are simply floating based on the demand given the constrained supply. A bubble would imply the prices are unsustainable, but how can that statement be true given that the daily
volume remains relatively unchanged since before the interdiction.

Whether a correction will happen once the underlying issues are resolved remains to be seen. For now the prices are going up up up.
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#126 - 2011-11-14 19:40:54 UTC
My guess is that you'll see people shut down their gallente reaction farms first in hopes of waiting it out. I imagine people would rather sit on their hands for a month and hope than tear down and rebuild their farms right away. It should be close enough to the winter "expansion" with its anchoring changes that people will just wait for that.

The key number is when mining thick blue in nullsec becomes more profitable than mining whatever people do now ("ABCs", I believe).
jm24
CRICE Corp
#127 - 2011-11-14 19:41:47 UTC
Perhaps a telling anecdotal detail, the want to buy JF character(toons) threads in the character bazaar are clearly stating no anshars. It seems there is confidence by the market the price may be around for some time.
jm24
CRICE Corp
#128 - 2011-11-14 19:43:29 UTC
Elise DarkStar wrote:
My guess is that you'll see people shut down their gallente reaction farms first in hopes of waiting it out. I imagine people would rather sit on their hands for a month and hope than tear down and rebuild their farms right away. It should be close enough to the winter "expansion" with its anchoring changes that people will just wait for that.

The key number is when mining thick blue in nullsec becomes more profitable than mining whatever people do now ("ABCs", I believe).


That is well into the past 5k range
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#129 - 2011-11-14 19:46:55 UTC
jm24 wrote:
That is well into the past 5k range


I've seen so many numbers thrown around already.

Somebody needs to sit down for 10 minutes and do the math.

I'm too lazy.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#130 - 2011-11-14 19:53:08 UTC
thick blue ice produces 350 isotopes, up from 300 in highsec

this is...not a lot... as a bonus for mining in 0.0

what that compares to mining arknor (or, perhaps more relevantly, mining industry upgrade mining sites) or drone region sanctuming is another :effort: question

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#131 - 2011-11-14 19:54:33 UTC
Elise DarkStar wrote:
My guess is that you'll see people shut down their gallente reaction farms first in hopes of waiting it out. I imagine people would rather sit on their hands for a month and hope than tear down and rebuild their farms right away. It should be close enough to the winter "expansion" with its anchoring changes that people will just wait for that.

The key number is when mining thick blue in nullsec becomes more profitable than mining whatever people do now ("ABCs", I believe).

gallente reactor farms shutting down is precisely the goal we're aiming for. It was not exaggeration when I said earlier that tearing down and redeploying a reactor farm is pretty much the height of griefing: you are in for a miserable day of space work and potentially several

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.
OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
#132 - 2011-11-14 19:59:06 UTC
I'm sorry, I must have missed this, but is there an agenda behind this? Or is canbaiting noobs finally getting boring?
Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#133 - 2011-11-14 20:08:18 UTC
Hey, if you try a bit harder, you might just make an edgy post.

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat
jm24
CRICE Corp
#134 - 2011-11-14 20:09:17 UTC
OllieNorth wrote:
I'm sorry, I must have missed this, but is there an agenda behind this? Or is canbaiting noobs finally getting boring?


A curious child will drop a rock in a pond to see what happens. Upon seeing the splash, the fun will continue until they are tired.
jm24
CRICE Corp
#135 - 2011-11-14 20:11:34 UTC
The difference is we know about splashes and used a big rock in a small pond.
Elise DarkStar
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#136 - 2011-11-14 20:11:35 UTC
Ya, I'm not exactly sure when this forum turned from badass finance guys who would steal babies if there was a buck in it to blinded-by-"goonie"-hate hisec carebears, but it is definitely a turn for the worst.
jm24
CRICE Corp
#137 - 2011-11-14 20:13:36 UTC
Don't forget we are all Aspies and are high on sunny-d. Expect this to last for some time.
Bernard Schuyler
Thundererz
#138 - 2011-11-14 20:26:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Bernard Schuyler
jm24 wrote:
To classify this as a bubble would be misleading, the market prices are simply floating based on the demand given the constrained supply. A bubble would imply the prices are unsustainable, but how can that statement be true given that the daily
volume remains relatively unchanged since before the interdiction.

Whether a correction will happen once the underlying issues are resolved remains to be seen. For now the prices are going up up up.


OK, "bubble" was the wrong word choice. But say you are so successful that you get bored and go interdict Caldari ice for awhile... That is certainly possible, albeit not guaranteed :-p

Doesn't the fact that it is only Oxytopes suggest that there will be a limit eventually where people will just switch over to different ships, towers, etc? Of course that would put upward pressure on those topes... although without Interdiction all the old Oxy miners would have joined that market increasing supply... it isn't like Ice is scarce.

I will guess that when you start to see the Gallente hi-sec towers put up by one-man corps go offline is when you will see the price peak past sustainable for the average joe. Although if PLEX prices keep going up, you may see the dedicated simply tack the fuel costs onto their subscription fees.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#139 - 2011-11-14 20:30:28 UTC
that precise uncertainty about when we will go "ok we're bored" is a wonderful asset: it blocks planning for the future and increases the information edge we hold about future economic swings as a result of the interdiction, increasing our ability to profit

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.
Krios Ahzek
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#140 - 2011-11-14 20:31:16 UTC
Bernard Schuyler wrote:
Although if PLEX prices keep going up, you may see the dedicated simply tack the fuel costs onto their subscription fees.


Gas prices are high enough in the real world, I can't see why someone would use real money to pay for overpriced space fuel too.

 Though All Men Do Despise Us