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The Post-Oxytopes World

First post
Author
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#1 - 2011-11-09 20:10:51 UTC
As we all know, it is becoming virtually impossible to source oxytopes anywhere in eve for anything less than a fuckgoons price. Oxytopes have solidly broken the 1000 barrier again today, with no indication it is doing anything but going up as goons continue to murder anyone who so much as looks at ice funny - and that now includes pathetic 0.0 alliances such as IRC who actually mine ice in 0.0.

Obviously, many foolish gallente tower owners bet they could ride out the storm, but at this point it's starting to become apparent that there is no oxytopes salvation: hell, few people even bother trying to resist in megatanked hulks anymore. It's just people in covetors hoping they're not worth suiciding (they are~) and untanked mackinaws that don't seem to understand why nobody is mining this fantastically valuble ice in highsec, a completely safe part of the EVE universe.

What market impacts will this have?

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

jm24
CRICE Corp
#2 - 2011-11-09 20:34:26 UTC
All ice is undervalued for their use.
Levija Saplina
Ken Interplanetary Communication
#3 - 2011-11-09 20:36:35 UTC
i'll give you a 2/10 for trying but not much else.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#4 - 2011-11-09 20:37:16 UTC
maybe you should check ice prices :sun:

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#5 - 2011-11-09 20:37:41 UTC
gallente ice, that is

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Leonard Dukes
Arbitrage Holdings Corporation
#6 - 2011-11-09 20:41:56 UTC
Well, it's rather brutal here. Right now we are advising all our clients to put everything they've got into canned food and shotguns.
Krios Ahzek
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#7 - 2011-11-09 20:44:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Krios Ahzek
Weaselior wrote:
As we all know, it is becoming virtually impossible to source oxytopes anywhere in eve for anything less than a fuckgoons price. Oxytopes have solidly broken the 1000 barrier again today, with no indication it is doing anything but going up as goons continue to murder anyone who so much as looks at ice funny - and that now includes pathetic 0.0 alliances such as IRC who actually mine ice in 0.0.

Obviously, many foolish gallente tower owners bet they could ride out the storm, but at this point it's starting to become apparent that there is no oxytopes salvation: hell, few people even bother trying to resist in megatanked hulks anymore. It's just people in covetors hoping they're not worth suiciding (they are~) and untanked mackinaws that don't seem to understand why nobody is mining this fantastically valuble ice in highsec, a completely safe part of the EVE universe.

What market impacts will this have?



Well played sir.

You should consider expanding your efforts to another racial ice, preferably one that isn't botted in DRF space. The effects would be even faster.

 Though All Men Do Despise Us

Claire Voyant
#8 - 2011-11-09 23:10:21 UTC
I like what you guys are doing to my wallet, but I would appreciate expansion into Caldari ice. I would make a sizable donation to the Goon retirement fund if you could pull that off.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#9 - 2011-11-10 02:58:49 UTC
Awww, the Goons are trying to shift a market with some good old fashioned kneecapping ?
Niiiice.

Let's see what kind of a price shift they managed to accomplish
...
hmm
...
from around 400-600, up to 900-1000, not bad, but not exactly very impressive either.
Yet.
Especially since the whole thing started little over a month and a half ago, and the price spikes happened at about the time nearly a month's worth of regular trade volume was "mysteriously" purchased from the market.

Prices of Blue Ice barely raised from a very rough 200k per block to a very rough 300k per block, so from a whooping ~6 mil/hour to ~9 mil/hour in a solo T2-equipped Covetor and not that much more in a solo Mack/Hulk.
Heck if I know why the bloody hell people USED to bother to mine ice at all in the past at those prices, because even the current prices seem woefully inadequate.

Wake me up when Blue Ice goes up to about 700k per block and oxytopes are over 2300-ish ISK per.
That's when I'll know the Goons managed to do their job.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#10 - 2011-11-10 03:09:04 UTC
As for the market effect if they manage to pull that off AND maintain it nicely there for a few months ?

Well, all the reaction products will also go up accordingly , because everybody and their dog is working reactions with Gallente towers. Worst affected would be all the four racial carbides, slightly less affected sylramic and phenolic, and the rest, eh, not that much.

Of course, it would not last long, because reaction people will eventually say "screw it" and just change tower type.
Especially since POS stuff is getting simplified, and the thing with faction towers is a bit iffy.

On the other hand, depending on how things go later on, it might be a very good OR a very bad idea to buy/sell factional towers in the near future (especially gall-based ones), until the change is actually rolled out.

I'll let people with more free time nowadays speculate on it all. Me, I really have other things to attend to :P
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#11 - 2011-11-10 04:42:44 UTC
i'm glad to see you cunningly identified carbides as most affected by the ice interdiction and not as the one t2 reaction least likely to be affected

you certainly are not a one-trick pony when it comes to the moon mineral market and certainly not someone who doesn't know the first thing about it

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#12 - 2011-11-10 04:44:00 UTC
my god man how do you keep all that knowledge in one head

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#13 - 2011-11-10 04:45:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Weaselior
also it is stunning you thought "hmm someone purchased lots of oxygen isotopes just before the goons started murdering everyone" and instead of drawing the conclusion that goons were insider trading, figuring out it was that demand spike that caused the damage

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#14 - 2011-11-10 05:27:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Akita T
Gee, and here I was paying you guys a compliment, but you didn't even realize it.
Weak, bro, weak.

As for your comments...


...


Carbides have the lowest (input materials cost / fuel cost) ratio of all advanced materials, and are therefore most affected percentage-wise by an increase in fuel prices, since fuel represents a greater percentage of their overall cost.
Obviously, as an absolute amount of ISK per unit, the rest will be affected more, but as a PERCENTAGE, they won't.
For a trader, the percentage difference is the most important one, not the price per unit difference.

When somebody purchases AND HOLDS one month's worth of trade volume from the market in a few days, that would cause a price spike for the next one or two months REGARDLESS of any actual increased difficulties in acquiring that particular item (especially if the revenue for doing it does not increase all that much).

Yes, there's a good chance somebody from the Goons bought it, but WHO did it is irrelevant for the time being.
What is relevant is whether the price hike WOULD have happened in the ABSENCE of that massive purchase (and how much lower than the current one it would have been).
Also, what else is relevant is how will prices evolve if whoever purchased and held on to that huge amount of oxytopes decides to hold onto it longer as opposed to trying to sell it (no matter how slowly).
And how fast will prices crash down towards the previous level (or even to the previous level, or maybe lower) if the one who bought the huge stock decides to sell it even if the difficulty of obtaining the items remains raised.

Just remember that during the Hulkageddons, mineral prices barely moved. Then again, the volumes of minerals transacted barely moved too. In spite of the massive number of Hulk losses (and other barges too).
So yeah, if prices for oxytopes raise enough to make Blue Ice mining better than casual L4 mision running (Goonswarm-induced losses notwithstanding), then yes, it would finally be clear that the Goons really had a serious and long-lasting impact JUST WITH THEIR MILITARY ACTION as opposed to their (or somebody else's) less-long-lived market fiddling.

...

P.S. But, please, do continue. I am curious to see what you have to say about that.
Zelda Wei
New Horizon Trade Exchange
#15 - 2011-11-10 12:02:05 UTC

I can't help but smile at the clear Goon disappointment Big smile

If the Goons had been as successful as they make out the price would be much higher. The big mistake they are making is continuing to pursuing a single isotope, for 'tears'. When they should have taken the profit, switched isotope and repeated. This would have earned them a lot more ISK and tears.
Via Shivon
#16 - 2011-11-10 12:25:24 UTC
Zelda Wei wrote:

I can't help but smile at the clear Goon disappointment Big smile

If the Goons had been as successful as they make out the price would be much higher. The big mistake they are making is continuing to pursuing a single isotope, for 'tears'. When they should have taken the profit, switched isotope and repeated. This would have earned them a lot more ISK and tears.



so 400 to 1200 is no success? lol
Florestan Bronstein
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2011-11-10 12:38:16 UTC
Via Shivon wrote:
so 400 to 1200 is no success? lol

you made nice profit when the price did spike - but keeping the price at a high level after you have presumably unloaded your own stock (see kugu thread) is a lot of work for no reward.

Making some other isotope (and then another, and then another) spike would probably be more profitable.

there is never "enough" success or profit.
Jack Dant
The Gentlemen of Low Moral Fibre
#18 - 2011-11-10 12:50:55 UTC
Akita T wrote:
Carbides have the lowest (input materials cost / fuel cost) ratio of all advanced materials, and are therefore most affected percentage-wise by an increase in fuel prices, since fuel represents a greater percentage of their overall cost.
Obviously, as an absolute amount of ISK per unit, the rest will be affected more, but as a PERCENTAGE, they won't.
For a trader, the percentage difference is the most important one, not the price per unit difference.


Except carbides also have the lowest volume output per hour. They take a bit over 8 days to fill an unbonused silo.

Most people are fine with weekly maintenance, and it's cheaper to run 2 caldari towers than 3 gallente. So they aren't really exposed to gallente fuel prices.

What happens in lowsec, stays in lowsec, lowering the barrier to entry to lowsec PVP: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=476644&#post476644

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#19 - 2011-11-10 13:30:01 UTC
Jack Dant wrote:
Akita T wrote:
Carbides have the lowest (input materials cost / fuel cost) ratio of all advanced materials, and are therefore most affected percentage-wise by an increase in fuel prices, since fuel represents a greater percentage of their overall cost.
Obviously, as an absolute amount of ISK per unit, the rest will be affected more, but as a PERCENTAGE, they won't.
For a trader, the percentage difference is the most important one, not the price per unit difference.


Except carbides also have the lowest volume output per hour. They take a bit over 8 days to fill an unbonused silo.

Most people are fine with weekly maintenance, and it's cheaper to run 2 caldari towers than 3 gallente. So they aren't really exposed to gallente fuel prices.

ding ding ding

gallente towers are the wise man's choice for reactor farms for anything but carbides: for carbides, caldari towers are more fuel-efficent without horrendous extra effort from emptying the things every day or two

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#20 - 2011-11-10 13:30:40 UTC
Florestan Bronstein wrote:
Via Shivon wrote:
so 400 to 1200 is no success? lol

you made nice profit when the price did spike - but keeping the price at a high level after you have presumably unloaded your own stock (see kugu thread) is a lot of work for no reward.

Making some other isotope (and then another, and then another) spike would probably be more profitable.

there is never "enough" success or profit.

some men just want to watch the galaxy burn, mr. bronstein

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

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