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Fuel Pellets: Price spike is go!
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proxwar
Doomheim
#61 - 2011-11-10 22:59:54 UTC
Lauren Hellfury wrote:



Anyway, have fun and carry on buying as the prices slide. There's profit there somewhere. If you're lucky. Maybe.


Ima lol hard, specifically at you, when LO hits 900 soon....Cool
Lauren Hellfury
Super Happy Awesome Fun Times
#62 - 2011-11-10 23:24:05 UTC
I assume you mean Soon™

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Max Flipper
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#63 - 2011-11-11 00:06:22 UTC
Lauren Hellfury wrote:
Max Flipper wrote:
Lauren Hellfury wrote:

Quote:

Yes, there will be an upswing when the pellet BPOs are released as it more than doubles the amount of LO being consumed for POS operation (maybe trippled) but that is only a small fraction of the market for LO in the first place. This upswing will then correct itself as soon as the fuel changeover occurs as the need for LO to fuel current towers as well as supply the new pellets will be removed.

Because the new Pallets don't need LO Roll


What you read? It's not what I wrote. There is going to be an, approximate, 2 week period where towers will be consuming fuel (including LO) as normal and where people will be buying it to create the pellets ready for the switch.


Stop trying to be clever, it doesn't suit you.

Try being less dumb, it would suit you Blink

Quote:

as it more than doubles the amount of LO being consumed for POS operation (maybe trippled)

You write word for word that the new Pellets will increase demand for POS FUEL OPERATION to twice the current amount.

There will be increased demand in order to produce Pellets yes, but they can be taken for a big part from the POS-Fuel reserves which exist already. But that can pass as bad wording and wasn't hard to interpret right.

[quote]
as the need for LO to fuel current towers as well as supply the new pellets will be removed.

Read that sentence out loud and ask again.

You write literally that there will be no need for LO to fuel towers currently Online nor to produce more [newly introduced] Pellets.
That would be true if either all current Towers would go offline or would stop using POS-Fuel.

I don't argue against a Price spike, since theres always Speculation around new items and also think LO will rise in Price through higher Demand then it had before.

However i argue your reasoning WHY that stuff will happen is either retarded or so badly worded that the meaning is lost if you try to read it as regular English.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#64 - 2011-11-11 00:23:01 UTC
Heavy Water isn't exactly rare when refining hisec ice, which yields twice as much Heavy Water as Liquid Ozone.

When I was young and foolish and harvesting ice to fuel my control tower, Heavy Water was never a problem, even with max CPU. However, I still had to buy extra Liquid Ozone to make up the shortfall when I didn't even have the grid maxed.

I can't imagine the current Heavy Water market prices being sustainable, and I'm somewhat surprised Liquid Ozone hasn't been affected more.
Lauren Hellfury
Super Happy Awesome Fun Times
#65 - 2011-11-11 01:00:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Lauren Hellfury
grrrr. forums Evil

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Lauren Hellfury
Super Happy Awesome Fun Times
#66 - 2011-11-11 01:00:40 UTC
Max Flipper wrote:

Quote:

as the need for LO to fuel current towers as well as supply the new pellets will be removed.

Read that sentence out loud and ask again.

You write literally that there will be no need for LO to fuel towers currently Online nor to produce more [newly introduced] Pellets.
That would be true if either all current Towers would go offline or would stop using POS-Fuel.

I really don't. Let's try and make this really simple and please remember that we're ignoring any other uses for LO.

(1)Now:
People buy LO to place in tower fuel bays.

(2)Winter Expansion launches:
People buy LO to place in tower fuel bays.
People buy LO to manufacture into fuel pellets.

(3)POS fuel changeover happens:
People buy LO to manufacture into fuel pellets.


When we switch from (2) to (3) the need for LO to fuel current towers as well as supply the new pellets will be removed. We have a situation where there is, effectively, a multiplication in demand for a portion of the LO market.

That multiplication would double the volume if all towers currently use max. powergrid.
That multiplication would triple the volume if all towers currently use 50% powergrid.

I suspect that the reality is that, on average, the powergrid used is between those two points.



Now, that is a slightly more expanded explanation of what I wrote in the bit you quoted at the top of your post.

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Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#67 - 2011-11-11 01:40:56 UTC
And most of us with 2-3 months of fuel stockpiled away will just convert 1 month's of fuel stockpile into fuel pellets - without having to purchase new fuel off of the market.
Claire Voyant
#68 - 2011-11-11 03:03:58 UTC
Esan Vartesa wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
Lauren Hellfury wrote:
You get twice the HW out of ice than LO, so if they were only used for running POS' you'd expect the price of LO to be about double that of HW. However the vast majority of LO is consumed by Cynos, jump bridges and bridging fleets in using BlOps and Titans. That is why LO is so much more expensive in comparison.

Wrong. Hisec ice doesn't produce enough ozone to meet demand even for towers, let alone cynos. 25 ozone per 300 topes is 8.33%. Current fuel requirements are somewhere between 16.6% (at half power) to 33.3%. The new fuel reqs will be 37.5%.

Therefore, the current market price of ozone has always been set and will continue to be set by lowsec and nullsec (glare crust) ice mining. Higher demand will certainly mean higher prices, but trying to tie the price of ozone to heavy water or whatever argument you were making is heading down the wrong path.


Higher demand means higher prices, and higher prices means higher supply. More mining of ice for ozone means more heavy water production, without a commensurate increase in demand for it. What will that do to price?

He was on to something, he just didn't know what.

I have never ever ever said heavy water prices would go up. I am on record saying heavy water has been the waste product of ice refining since the dawn of time. All that Glare Crust mined in low and null sec to make up the missing ozone supply also produces 1000 units of Heavy Water per unit of ice. The good news for the idiots buying heavy water (I've still got a few sells orders needing to be filled) is that no one in their right mind would drag all that heavy water to high sec. I can barely be motivated to move it three jumps to Jita, let alone from nullsec. When you buy heavy water, you are basically paying for just shipping and handling, like those free offers on TV. Heavy water will be below 25 in less than a week.
Via Shivon
#69 - 2011-11-11 08:38:07 UTC
Esan Vartesa wrote:
The Goon's right.

Stopped clock and all that...



nice discussion, except those ppl - but fans are fans Roll



the price is 390-500 ppl buy other that allready had stock before this announcement sell, fine with me bought it for 350
BUT like most others here i think in med timerange the price will raise 800-1200 for a while, if there are no changes in the pellets anymore.

i dont tink 100% will need to buy fuel for pellets, they will just add a weapon array and place allready existing fuel in there.
BUT there will be producer that start producing pellets for profit, maybe its worth it, so the price will raise because demand is bigger and they dont buy small quantities.

the bigges factor is the BIG increase of LO need from what ~30% per tower to 100% per tower?
nobody can tell me this will not raise the price.

I am not talking about short term speculation, you can go to HW and loose your mones there like allot others did Lol

20 to 200 in 24h and 200 to 50 in 48h - thats a good way to loose 75% of your money Twisted
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#70 - 2011-11-11 12:23:48 UTC
Oh, it will raise the price of LiqOz for sure - but not much more then 10-20% long-term. (On the flip-side, consumption and price of Isotopes is about to take a 10% drop since towers now only consume 400 instead of 450 per hour.)

As the price for ice products go up, more people will go back to mining ice in order to save money for their POS towers. If people need to mine more and more ice to met LiqOz needs, that will just help drive down the price of the various isotopes.
Via Shivon
#71 - 2011-11-11 12:47:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Via Shivon
yes - i dont think it will change "LONG"termn price allot.
but i really dont want to invest x-xx b in one product longterm in the market, waste of profit ...short- better medterm is the way to go.
Eukalipta
Planetary 0perations
#72 - 2011-11-13 13:41:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Eukalipta
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Oh, it will raise the price of LiqOz for sure - but not much more then 10-20% long-term. (On the flip-side, consumption and price of Isotopes is about to take a 10% drop since towers now only consume 400 instead of 450 per hour.)

As the price for ice products go up, more people will go back to mining ice in order to save money for their POS towers. If people need to mine more and more ice to met LiqOz needs, that will just help drive down the price of the various isotopes.








while these numbers of fuel use etc might be correct, isotopes and other ice products will have to be imported to high sec, this might still influence price.
Mantra Achura
Stammtisch
#73 - 2011-11-13 14:08:00 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Oh, it will raise the price of LiqOz for sure - but not much more then 10-20% long-term. (On the flip-side, consumption and price of Isotopes is about to take a 10% drop since towers now only consume 400 instead of 450 per hour.)
[...]


The original POS-Setup for 450 topes per hour is just one figure of dozens. CCP just calculated some sort of average consumtion.

One example:
The 450 topes per hour are covered with a large gallente tower fitted with
2 x harvester
2 x coupling array
2 x simple reactor array
4 x silo

Another setup uses 315 topes per hour only:
1 x harvester
2 x coupling array
1 x complex reactor array
5 x silo

So just stating all reaction are using 450 topes per hour and will save 50 with the patch isn't it. Consumption could be stable or even higher. That depends how towers are setup currently and will be fitted in the furure.
Lauren Hellfury
Super Happy Awesome Fun Times
#74 - 2011-11-13 18:43:00 UTC
Um..... Isotope consumption is a fixed hourly rate. Even *I* know that. Blink

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Mantra Achura
Stammtisch
#75 - 2011-11-13 18:56:06 UTC
Indeed. Big smile

My - POS - tool bug.
Alisarina
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#76 - 2011-11-14 01:42:50 UTC
Interesting discussion going on here, but I have a question that I've not seen mentioned here, or I could be going on out-dated info.

With the Winter Expansion coming out with all the pellet changes, arn't they also removing high sec ice fields? If they do that then it will reduce supply by ab amount (I've no idea by how much, maybe someone else has a rough idea). Wouldn't this boost the prices in the short term and possibly permanently for ice related products for PoS fuels/pellet production?

If it is still going to go ahead then HW will not drop down to 20 per again due to the logistics of low/null hauling costs and not being supplied by high sec ice miners/bots.

If I missed the mark or the ice field change got scrapped I'm sorry, not seen it mentioned in a while.
Via Shivon
#77 - 2011-11-14 11:41:10 UTC
there no dev bloq that ice will be removed from high sec.
i wish it would - lots of LO to sell then :D