These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
123Next page
 

Thoughts on the future cost of Isk?

First post
Author
Thomas Hurt
Future Ventures
#1 - 2013-11-19 17:27:25 UTC
Anyone have market projections (technical analysis, maybe some geometric harmonics) on how much isk isk will be worth, say, a year from now?
X ATM092
The Hatchery
RAZOR Alliance
#2 - 2013-11-19 17:39:38 UTC
Given isk is the unit we use to quantify stuff in eve it'll probably be worth about 1 each, unless you wish to propose another standard. I expect PLEX prices will continue to rise though.
Dramaticus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#3 - 2013-11-19 17:57:00 UTC
I propose the Guidance System Standard

The 'do-nothing' member of the GoonSwarm Economic Warfare Cabal

The edge is REALLY hard to see at times but it DOES exist and in this case we were looking at a situation where a new feature created for all of our customers was being virtually curbstomped by five of them

X ATM092
The Hatchery
RAZOR Alliance
#4 - 2013-11-19 18:15:42 UTC
Dramaticus wrote:
I propose the Guidance System Standard

I've always liked the idea of plex being dividable into a million microplex and used for currency.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#5 - 2013-11-19 20:31:12 UTC
Thomas Hurt wrote:
Anyone have market projections (technical analysis, maybe some geometric harmonics) on how much isk isk will be worth, say, a year from now?


No need of technical analysis. As long as CCP does not heavily intervene at reducing ISK faucets (or enormously increase ISK sinks), the ISK will keep dropping.

If you read my last 3 market analyses, they all have one thing in common: commodity [enter here a name] is steadily rising over the years. Now, patches do affect commodity prices but if multiple and unrelated of them keep rising across the years, it's really because there's something with ISK global quantity that does not work any more.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#6 - 2013-11-19 22:26:08 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Thomas Hurt wrote:
Anyone have market projections (technical analysis, maybe some geometric harmonics) on how much isk isk will be worth, say, a year from now?


No need of technical analysis. As long as CCP does not heavily intervene at reducing ISK faucets (or enormously increase ISK sinks), the ISK will keep dropping.

If you read my last 3 market analyses, they all have one thing in common: commodity [enter here a name] is steadily rising over the years. Now, patches do affect commodity prices but if multiple and unrelated of them keep rising across the years, it's really because there's something with ISK global quantity that does not work any more.


One can only hope that the building of stargates in the future is a monumental ISK sink.

As virtually nothing else players build is. Faction ships are a little bit of a sink but not much,

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#7 - 2013-11-19 22:45:58 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Thomas Hurt wrote:
Anyone have market projections (technical analysis, maybe some geometric harmonics) on how much isk isk will be worth, say, a year from now?


No need of technical analysis. As long as CCP does not heavily intervene at reducing ISK faucets (or enormously increase ISK sinks), the ISK will keep dropping.

If you read my last 3 market analyses, they all have one thing in common: commodity [enter here a name] is steadily rising over the years. Now, patches do affect commodity prices but if multiple and unrelated of them keep rising across the years, it's really because there's something with ISK global quantity that does not work any more.

[zydrine]
[megacyte]

maybe im holding this upsidedown idgi

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#8 - 2013-11-19 22:47:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Weaselior
if only there was a graph that clearly showed that there was no serious isk inflation

i guess we'll just have to take vv's word for it

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Thomas Hurt
Future Ventures
#9 - 2013-11-20 02:32:45 UTC
Weaselior wrote:


That's certainly an interesting article (bookmarking it to read it more in-depth later), but I was asking about the value of Isk with regards to Isk specifically, not a basket of commodities.
okoolos rimmer
Napkin Nation
#10 - 2013-11-20 02:54:14 UTC
How can you express a value of something in relation to itself? The only meaningful way of evaluating isk is in terms of its purchasing power ( be it PLEX or goods). I think the more intersting question would be the purchasing power of a PLEX over time but that topic has been beaten to death.
Thomas Hurt
Future Ventures
#11 - 2013-11-20 03:03:02 UTC
okoolos rimmer wrote:
How can you express a value of something in relation to itself? The only meaningful way of evaluating isk is in terms of its purchasing power ( be it PLEX or goods). I think the more intersting question would be the purchasing power of a PLEX over time but that topic has been beaten to death.


Good point, I suppose that is a problem with any fiat currency.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#12 - 2013-11-20 06:20:57 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Thomas Hurt wrote:
Anyone have market projections (technical analysis, maybe some geometric harmonics) on how much isk isk will be worth, say, a year from now?


No need of technical analysis. As long as CCP does not heavily intervene at reducing ISK faucets (or enormously increase ISK sinks), the ISK will keep dropping.

If you read my last 3 market analyses, they all have one thing in common: commodity [enter here a name] is steadily rising over the years. Now, patches do affect commodity prices but if multiple and unrelated of them keep rising across the years, it's really because there's something with ISK global quantity that does not work any more.

[zydrine]
[megacyte]

maybe im holding this upsidedown idgi


You mean, the items that had an explosive rise in farming, to the point it greatly surpassed the effects of ISK losing value?

You mean, the materials that were used to build hundreds of thousands tiericided ships for past patches speculation, and that some still could not manage to sell and thus they caused minerals pricing going down due to huge excess of supply?
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#13 - 2013-11-20 06:24:11 UTC
Thomas Hurt wrote:
okoolos rimmer wrote:
How can you express a value of something in relation to itself? The only meaningful way of evaluating isk is in terms of its purchasing power ( be it PLEX or goods). I think the more intersting question would be the purchasing power of a PLEX over time but that topic has been beaten to death.


Good point, I suppose that is a problem with any fiat currency.


It's more than that.

PLEX is THE relevant item, as it represents:

1) The scarcest commodity in the universe (game and RL): time. With PLEX you buy time.

2) With PLEX you can also buy money.

3) It's THE elder trading game item for many and thus gets a lot of liquidity invested into it.

Therefore PLEX is a leading item, no talk can conveniently ignore it - a la Weaselior.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#14 - 2013-11-20 06:45:45 UTC
Weaselior wrote:



1) You "forgot" to include PLEX in your arguments. "Tiny" oversight, eh?

2) When the author talks about PLEX, he mentions a decrease in rise, whereas if he used proper financial tools, he'd see he was analyzing a down swing, not a downtred. PLEX price is rising since March 2010.

2) That chart is made with moving averages, which don't tell a lot of stuff (and are a lagging indicator anyway).

3) It shows a 2007-2010 period that was exactly where prices should be. The big bad thing of that era was minerals prices, but those have been fixed with many changes (drones regions, L4 missions loot nerf etc), so once removed this defect, everything else was OK back at that date.
Also, nobody cares that 2007-2010 appear in that chart if the last chart bit show indexes sharply going up again and reaching warning levels.

Also, ever wondered why they stopped posting those nice economy data?
When somebody stops being transparent my auditor senses tingle and make me wonder: "what do they have to hide? Their lovely indicators proved to be as useless as I believe they are and now they don't dare to show that some super-important commodities are spinning out of control?"

4) If you spent the time to read the second part of the article you'd find the author spending 2/3 of the article explaining where he'd find faucets to cut and how.

And in the end, he poses the big question you skipped with both feet: "The other, often overlooked aspect of this discussion is, what is our target?"

Because it's true that we need inflation - unlike RL, ISK is not (often) passed to "heirs" when a player quits playing, unlike RL ISK that goes to NPCs is not going to "return to the source, ready to be reintroduced in the economy" like it'd do with a RL central bank and so on.

But we don't need so much ISK that it makes PLEX rise for years in a row.

We need inflation, but we need less of it.
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#15 - 2013-11-20 14:07:10 UTC
VV if you are arguing for less inflation you need to be able to tell what is current inflation. Otherwise when you try to lessen inflation you may unintentionally overshoot and cause depression.

There is no inflation in mining (mining for PLEX is killing mineral prices), there is no inflation in ratting (mods are worth little), there is no inflation in lvl 4s (because of ganking risk and missioning for PLEX). I believe that professions in general are becoming less profitable. PLEX is going up but players doing most activities in general are getting poorer as in their earning power per hour is eroding because they don't get paid in PLEX. A solution, if they are short isk, is to just sell a PLEX.

What do you think would happen if rat bounty payouts were to be halved? Isk would become scarcer so prices of everything on average would fall, and you would start having shortages of stuff because people could not be arsed to mine, etc., and they would try to live off their isk reserves until economy improves with a patch.

You might actually benefit if net isk flow into the game were reduced because you are sitting on a lot of isk. So are you being scientific or are you talking your book? :-) In a sense you are the man keeping the little people down. :-)
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#16 - 2013-11-20 16:07:05 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

PLEX is THE relevant item, as it represents:

1) The scarcest commodity in the universe (game and RL): time. With PLEX you buy time.

yeah no

plex isn't an item that's scarce in the "universe" it is an item that can be manufactured infinitely by the application of dollars

plex is a measure of the value of real money versus space money, and is no more relevant to a discussion of inflation as the value of the dollar to the lira or some other joke currency: forex is not a measure of inflation

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#17 - 2013-11-20 16:08:41 UTC
Thomas Hurt wrote:
Weaselior wrote:


That's certainly an interesting article (bookmarking it to read it more in-depth later), but I was asking about the value of Isk with regards to Isk specifically, not a basket of commodities.

which type of entrails do you think we need for this sort of forecasting

i suggest ducks

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#18 - 2013-11-20 16:10:47 UTC
Rthor wrote:
VV if you are arguing for less inflation you need to be able to tell what is current inflation. Otherwise when you try to lessen inflation you may unintentionally overshoot and cause depression.

There is no inflation in mining (mining for PLEX is killing mineral prices), there is no inflation in ratting (mods are worth little), there is no inflation in lvl 4s (because of ganking risk and missioning for PLEX). I believe that professions in general are becoming less profitable. PLEX is going up but players doing most activities in general are getting poorer as in their earning power per hour is eroding because they don't get paid in PLEX. A solution, if they are short isk, is to just sell a PLEX.

What do you think would happen if rat bounty payouts were to be halved? Isk would become scarcer so prices of everything on average would fall, and you would start having shortages of stuff because people could not be arsed to mine, etc., and they would try to live off their isk reserves until economy improves with a patch.

You might actually benefit if net isk flow into the game were reduced because you are sitting on a lot of isk. So are you being scientific or are you talking your book? :-) In a sense you are the man keeping the little people down. :-)



Well you have just to check my past General Discussion posts to see how I am often defending "little people" from the continuous attempts by large powerblock players to have them nerfed into extinction.

Said that, no serious talk about inflation can be done if the only ones with the data (CCP) went silent mode since a long time.

All what we have been left with, are commodities and ISK and their relative value.

Now, I'd rather not use minerals as a meter, because they can be professionally farmed (see the famous guy multiboxing 90 mining ships and stuff) and thus they suffer their own "inflation". Plus minerals were hit very hard by tiericide patches multiple speculations.

That is, minerals are an highly polluted sample to use as reference.
PLEX on the other side are manipulated, but manipulated to keep them low. So, if they fail to crash despite being manipulated downwards by CCP, it means there's a powerful pressure to buy them.

Why is there such pressure?

I think there are 3 main reasons to that.

- One is the fact that players feel entitled to not pay for MMOs with RL money any more. Since EvE has a mechanism to do that, players work towards such objective.

- The second is the fact that players are slowly getting disgruntled with EvE and thus think EvE does not deserve to be paid like it used to deserve in the past. Less players buy PLEXes for ISK as well, because there's too much ISK already. So the supply dries up, the demand rises.

- The third is the ever increasing efficiency at farming ISK which amplifies the existing ISK faucets.



In the end, people don't care that they can buy a ship for 20% less ISK, they care they have to pay a 10% higher price to keep playing, which is a premise to even care about buying a ship for 20% discount.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#19 - 2013-11-20 16:12:21 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

PLEX is THE relevant item, as it represents:

1) The scarcest commodity in the universe (game and RL): time. With PLEX you buy time.

yeah no

plex isn't an item that's scarce in the "universe" it is an item that can be manufactured infinitely by the application of dollars

plex is a measure of the value of real money versus space money, and is no more relevant to a discussion of inflation as the value of the dollar to the lira or some other joke currency: forex is not a measure of inflation



Try reading better. When I say PLEX represents the scarcest commodity does not mean it IS the scarcest commodity.
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#20 - 2013-11-20 16:33:17 UTC
Oh please. When I hear that somebody is trying to help little people it is always going to get funny. When I get turned into a space communist arguing on the side of the space proletariat that is something.

You are arguing for lower pay for everybody. That is what reducing isk faucets means.

Who here wants missions to pay less? Who here wants rats to have smaller rat bounties? Who here wants to sell their salvage for less.

You are trying to keep inflation by cutting income. That is not helping little people. And yes that will work in slowing inflation, and protect the value of your already earned isk. In real life too. If we all make half in salaries that will reduce inflation or stop the "imminent" threat of hyper inflation from happening. This is how the man protects us the little people by doing what is good for us.

If you want to help people economics will tell you that the best most efficient way is direct money transfer. Help them out by flying through space and dropping off some cash to randoms. It is fun.

How about we do not try to fix what is not broke?
123Next page