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PLEX prices and the end of isk incentives for GTCs
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RAW23
#1 - 2013-10-29 16:02:51 UTC
So, the big news in New Eden today is that CCP have put their foot down and banned the giving of ingame isk or items in exchange for purchasing GTCs. A significant proportion of the GTCs being purchased have previously been done so through SomerBlink's notorious affiliate link, which paid out a bonus 200mil isk to anyone making a purchase. Since this effectively provided a subsidy to PLEX sellers should we now expect to see PLEX prices rise either as sellers look to get that isk from the market instead of Somer or as the supply of PLEXes shrinks from fewer people choosing to buy GTCs without the extra isk incentive?

*Disclaimer - I am a PLEX consumer not a PLEX trader or speculator.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
#2 - 2013-10-29 17:05:29 UTC
I was all 'GTFO you crazy person' but then I looked and saw 'RAW23'. Now I just don't know. Should be interesting. Also, I wish I had known about that back when I bought my last round of PLEX.
RAW23
#3 - 2013-10-29 17:18:31 UTC
OllieNorth wrote:
I was all 'GTFO you crazy person' but then I looked and saw 'RAW23'. Now I just don't know. Should be interesting. Also, I wish I had known about that back when I bought my last round of PLEX.


I'm genuinely asking not telling what's going to happen. The big market swings are not my main strength. The counter, I guess, is that the people who bought GTCs were going to buy them anyway and that Somer's incentive just channeled them through his link rather than incentivising them to buy in the first place. Hopefully the experts can weigh in.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#4 - 2013-10-29 17:25:47 UTC
I think it will be interesting, I suspect Somer was not the only one offering incentives, and so it will be interesting to see whether people still use GTCs without the referrals.

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Kate stark
#5 - 2013-10-29 19:06:45 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
So, the big news in New Eden today is that CCP have put their foot down and banned the giving of ingame isk or items in exchange for purchasing GTC.



Source, please.
not that i doubt you, i just want the source.

Yay, this account hasn't had its signature banned. or its account, if you're reading this.
RAW23
#6 - 2013-10-29 19:12:51 UTC
Kate stark wrote:
RAW23 wrote:
So, the big news in New Eden today is that CCP have put their foot down and banned the giving of ingame isk or items in exchange for purchasing GTC.



Source, please.
not that i doubt you, i just want the source.


https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3800889#post3800889

Katarina Reid wrote:
Headshot

Not sure if im allowed to link the letter given to resellers but it says to stop players trading ingame items for cash. ETC + bonus items may not be direclty or indirectly traded by the buyer for isk. EULA says cant sell ingame stuff for cash. 10 days for reseller to stop it or else.

You can still support me for no reward when you buy your ETC's here

$660 made for me
377 sale of ETC's
$13,195 for CCP
188b given out


We're still missing an official announcement but this came from the one player whose GTC referral for isk thread was allowed to stay up on the forum by CCP.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
mechtech
Ice Liberation Army
#7 - 2013-10-29 19:14:48 UTC  |  Edited by: mechtech
Well the first obvious observation would be that a 60 day GTC + 200m bonus works out to a 100m bonus per PLEX. Therefore at most we could be seeing a 100m increase in PLEX cost to bring supply/demand back where it was. Of course, nowhere near 100% of GTCs were done through Somer, and as PLEX prices rise it makes GTC buying even more attractive for people who never used incentives in the first place. Based solely on this line of thought, I'd hazard to guess PLEX would go up 15m or so.

On the other hand, I suspect there were a large number of people who bought GTCs only because they were Somer users. I'd imagine that more than a small portion of Somer GTC buyers end up losing the isk through Somer and re-buying more GTCs, and then rinse and repeat. Somer has hundreds of trillions in isk, so there must ultimately be a very large number of fairly addicted gamblers out there, many of whom probably bought Somer GTCs occasionally as part of their routine.

So in the end, PLEX supply will definitely fall, but we don't know by how much and it's basically impossible to predict without knowing the exact value of Somer GTC sales vs global GTC sales, as well as Somer's customer data. There was already strong upwards pressure on PLEX, so definitely expect that to continue.
RAW23
#8 - 2013-10-29 19:20:16 UTC
mechtech wrote:
Well the first obvious observation would be that a 60 day GTC + 200m bonus works out to a 100m bonus per PLEX. Therefore at most we could be seeing a 100m increase in PLEX cost to bring supply/demand back where it was. Of course, nowhere near 100% of GTCs were done through Somer, and as PLEX prices rise it makes GTC buying even more attractive for people who never used incentives in the first place. Based solely on this line of thought, I'd hazard to guess PLEX would go up 15m or so.

On the other hand, I suspect there were a large number of people who bought GTCs only because they were Somer users. I'd imagine that more than a small portion of Somer GTC buyers end up losing the isk through Somer and re-buying more GTCs, and then rinse and repeat. Somer has hundreds of trillions in isk, so there must ultimately be a very large number of fairly addicted gamblers out there, many of whom probably bought Somer GTCs occasionally as part of their routine.

So in the end, PLEX supply will definitely fall, but we don't know by how much and it's basically impossible to predict without knowing the exact value of Somer GTC sales vs global GTC sales, as well as Somer's customer data. There was already strong upwards pressure on PLEX, so definitely expect that to continue.


While we don't know the exact proportion of Somer's GTC sales as part of the global total, we do know that he accounted for a third of all Shattered Crystal sales across all games in a 2.5 year period and that the total value of sales through his referrals in this time was c. 2.5 million dollars. I have to go afk for some hours now but it should be possible to work out the rough number of plexes going through Somer per month from that and someone more familiar with the plex market may be able to suggest what proportion of the total that accounts for.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#9 - 2013-10-29 19:37:04 UTC
Or perhaps they'll need to buy more GTCs in order to fund their gambling habit ;).

Have CCP specifically stated that Somer is no longer allowed to offer an incentive for using their referral link? Remember Somer give "Blink Credit" rather than directly depositing ISK. Perhaps that obfuscation is enough for CCP.

Free 3rd party services

Buddy link w/ bonus 250k SP, you keep the whole PLEX upon subscribing
Kate stark
#10 - 2013-10-29 19:53:09 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
Kate stark wrote:
RAW23 wrote:
So, the big news in New Eden today is that CCP have put their foot down and banned the giving of ingame isk or items in exchange for purchasing GTC.



Source, please.
not that i doubt you, i just want the source.


https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3800889#post3800889

Katarina Reid wrote:
Headshot

Not sure if im allowed to link the letter given to resellers but it says to stop players trading ingame items for cash. ETC + bonus items may not be direclty or indirectly traded by the buyer for isk. EULA says cant sell ingame stuff for cash. 10 days for reseller to stop it or else.

You can still support me for no reward when you buy your ETC's here

$660 made for me
377 sale of ETC's
$13,195 for CCP
188b given out


We're still missing an official announcement but this came from the one player whose GTC referral for isk thread was allowed to stay up on the forum by CCP.


obviously reid wasn't generating enough sales for them to justify letting them carry on.

also, thanks for that.

Yay, this account hasn't had its signature banned. or its account, if you're reading this.
RAW23
#11 - 2013-10-29 20:54:49 UTC
A bit of further corroboration. Together the two sources are enough to convince me this is CCP's official stance, even in the absence of a statement from them as yet.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3802585#post3802585

Quote:

At the request of CCP, we have discontinued our Bonus program for purchasing ETC's through our affiliate Link.

In the future, if an acceptable time code incentive presents itself, we will of course implement it to ensure we remain competitive with other sites.

We are still offering time codes at a great discount to our users so we invite you to stop by and give as a try!

Thanks,
EVE-GAMES
https://eve-games.net

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#12 - 2013-10-30 00:14:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Diomedes Calypso
Any ideas on orders of magnitude of plex they SELL per day compared to the Jita daily volume? 1% 2% 4% couldn't be 10% could it?

Also same question about ships.. Are they giving away a noticeable number of ships in relation to the number of those same ships sold daily in Jita ?

I'd think those two questions are imortant to try to put a number on if you're trying to deci

.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#13 - 2013-10-30 01:29:59 UTC
RAW23 wrote:
So, the big news in New Eden today is that CCP have put their foot down and banned the giving of ingame isk or items in exchange for purchasing GTCs. A significant proportion of the GTCs being purchased have previously been done so through SomerBlink's notorious affiliate link, which paid out a bonus 200mil isk to anyone making a purchase. Since this effectively provided a subsidy to PLEX sellers should we now expect to see PLEX prices rise either as sellers look to get that isk from the market instead of Somer or as the supply of PLEXes shrinks from fewer people choosing to buy GTCs without the extra isk incentive?

*Disclaimer - I am a PLEX consumer not a PLEX trader or speculator.


As long as people have ways to make so much ISK, PLEX will keep rising.

It's just like Forex, one of the two "currencies", ISK (PLEX is effectively a currency as it's the interface to/from "outside EvE") is being printed in too big amounts so the other skyrockets.

At this point I fear a further 20% or so nerf to game ISK faucets will soon be in order.

One day CCP will understand that you can't manage a realistic economy with an huge tap spewing ISK with no boundary.
They have to swap almost ALL the current ISK faucets with appropriate player to player swapped items.

The only ISK allowed to flow in game should be barely enough to guarantee a turnover in the total ISK mass circulating in the economy, taking care of players unsubbing, current functioning sinks and similar.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#14 - 2013-10-30 07:29:00 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
RAW23 wrote:
So, the big news in New Eden today is that CCP have put their foot down and banned the giving of ingame isk or items in exchange for purchasing GTCs. A significant proportion of the GTCs being purchased have previously been done so through SomerBlink's notorious affiliate link, which paid out a bonus 200mil isk to anyone making a purchase. Since this effectively provided a subsidy to PLEX sellers should we now expect to see PLEX prices rise either as sellers look to get that isk from the market instead of Somer or as the supply of PLEXes shrinks from fewer people choosing to buy GTCs without the extra isk incentive?

*Disclaimer - I am a PLEX consumer not a PLEX trader or speculator.


As long as people have ways to make so much ISK, PLEX will keep rising.

It's just like Forex, one of the two "currencies", ISK (PLEX is effectively a currency as it's the interface to/from "outside EvE") is being printed in too big amounts so the other skyrockets.

At this point I fear a further 20% or so nerf to game ISK faucets will soon be in order.

One day CCP will understand that you can't manage a realistic economy with an huge tap spewing ISK with no boundary.
They have to swap almost ALL the current ISK faucets with appropriate player to player swapped items.

The only ISK allowed to flow in game should be barely enough to guarantee a turnover in the total ISK mass circulating in the economy, taking care of players unsubbing, current functioning sinks and similar.


In before incursion bears have a go at Vaerah

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#15 - 2013-10-30 07:44:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:

In before incursion bears have a go at Vaerah


I have an huge history of being alternatively accused being one of the prominent PVE nerfs promoters (starting with the great L4 nerfs of 2010+ and then incursions and then the exploited FW missions) but also to stand in the middle of some large alliances drive to nuke hi sec profits to the ground (yes the two topics do not totally overlap).

As such I think I am attempting fairness P

Imagine this: a game without ISK faucets would have mostly just players wealth exchanges, it'd be harder to make a profit by botting, inflation would turn into deflation (and mineral faucets would turn into inflation as people desperately try to grind more material to exchange for the scarter ISK).

Hmm :consequences: and more challenges for the Good Doctor.

A first consequence would be the need to move mineral roids into anomalies as well.

More shallow, random mental rummaging:

The ultimate consequence would be that better players and organizations would slowly but surely grab the wealth and the others would become space-poor. So, well, yeah, some "welfare" faucets would still need to remain, else the bads would really "lose at EvE" and ultimately quit.

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JamDunc
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#16 - 2013-10-30 19:15:15 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
In before incursion bears have a go at Vaerah


The simple way to deal with that is to add some more items to the Concord LP store or reduce the tax on converting the LP to other stores.

Then reduce the amount of isk paid out in incursions and increase the number of LP to compensate.
Adunh Slavy
#17 - 2013-10-30 22:02:01 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

Imagine this: a game without ISK faucets would have mostly just players wealth exchanges, it'd be harder to make a profit by botting, inflation would turn into deflation (and mineral faucets would turn into inflation as people desperately try to grind more material to exchange for the scarter ISK).



That would likely not turn out well.

Unlike the real world, people do come and go in Eve in ways very unlike the real world. ISK and other wealth, in a unsubscribed player's account is removed. In the real world, when someone dies, the children, business partners, governments, etc get a hold of that wealth and use it.

Also ISK sinks in Eve are sinks, black holes. In the real world, even the most wasteful user of wealth, governments, impact markets. They reduce the PPC of course, but still impact the markets in which they meddle and participate. When a government in Eve taxes us, or we buy a skill book and whatnots, that wealth simply vanishes. Granted some of those costs do increase the PPC in opposition to real world government, but it is hardly a wash.

Also, as Eve players mature, their activities, enabled by advancing skills, they want to purchase and use exponentially more expensive toys. The SP crack of flying the next ship, using the better module, would suffer.

So long as productivity levels meet monetary inflation, things seem to work out well enough. If Eve needs anything it needs better divisions of labor, more industrial specialization that encourages horizontal business versus vertical business. Altering missions/rats to give fewer types of rewards would help in that regard and likely rather easy to implement.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#18 - 2013-10-31 05:54:48 UTC
I'm enjoying this conversation a lot. I'll stay out of it so it keeps going ; )

.
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#19 - 2013-10-31 08:44:40 UTC
as much of a hassle as it would be to liquidate most of my stuff, i have to agree that a culling of ISK faucets would be good for the game.

I should buy an Ishtar.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#20 - 2013-10-31 14:29:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Adunh Slavy wrote:

That would likely not turn out well.

Unlike the real world, people do come and go in Eve in ways very unlike the real world. ISK and other wealth, in a unsubscribed player's account is removed. In the real world, when someone dies, the children, business partners, governments, etc get a hold of that wealth and use it.

Also ISK sinks in Eve are sinks, black holes. In the real world, even the most wasteful user of wealth, governments, impact markets. They reduce the PPC of course, but still impact the markets in which they meddle and participate. When a government in Eve taxes us, or we buy a skill book and whatnots, that wealth simply vanishes. Granted some of those costs do increase the PPC in opposition to real world government, but it is hardly a wash.

Also, as Eve players mature, their activities, enabled by advancing skills, they want to purchase and use exponentially more expensive toys. The SP crack of flying the next ship, using the better module, would suffer.

So long as productivity levels meet monetary inflation, things seem to work out well enough. If Eve needs anything it needs better divisions of labor, more industrial specialization that encourages horizontal business versus vertical business. Altering missions/rats to give fewer types of rewards would help in that regard and likely rather easy to implement.


After 10 years I believe Dr. Ejyo has a fairly accurate model describing the "fresh ISK in" vs "ISK out" vs "wallet segregated ISK".

Now, PLEX has provided several economy "knobs" to turn and rebalance the various economy variations but it comes with an issue: it's "cyclical". That is, if an expansion is liked or hyped, PLEXes will get bought out so quick that they generate imbalance instead of balance. Likewise in case of a bad expansion, PLEXes stop being bought enough and they crash.
Bad stuff expecially happens when PLEX rises: people start resorting to all sorts of ISK faucets milking and this tends to happen exactly when more people are playing and this further exacerbates the imbalance between created and sunk ISK. Once the PLEX drive up ends, ISK is still circulating and now is in excess of the game need.
Problem is, ISK does not manage to be sunk enough to be readsorbed before the next PLEX price escalation happens, so every time we see a little higher peaking, because ISK is just more than before.

This HAS to end, look at my multi-year charts, it's a steady upward trend that knows no halt and this is going to hurt the economy.

On another side, it's true the Doctor got some thousands PLEXes from confiscation but they will deplete sooner or later, if the upward price pressure won't stop he has to burn them to control the price itself and once they are gone, CCP can't resort to "printing" PLEX to straight inject in the economy. Well, they could but then it's all money they are NOT getting and actually they are paying players to play for ISK instead of playing for real money.

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