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Let's break a t2 Monopoly.
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RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#21 - 2013-10-07 20:39:39 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Gizznitt Malikite wrote:
Here's the point: Modules and Ammo are primarily produced through invention, so removal of those BPO's wont do anything but HURT the BPO holder....


Better point: At the time of those posts, the "worst" module, the Expanded Cargohold II, with 81% of supply produced by BPO was profitable to invent.

Literally the instant the market demands more of an item than the BPOs for that item can provide, they become irrelevant in setting the market price.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Lors Dornick
Kallisti Industries
#22 - 2013-10-08 00:56:48 UTC
I's say that there are three kinds of posters who claim that T2 BPOs makes it impossible to make a profit on invented T2 BPCs.

  • Trolls.
  • People who fail at market research and/or basic math.
  • People who are making money on invention and doesn't want the unwashed masses to interfere in their markets.


Hmm, wait a sec, I'm on my own list.

I've changed my mind.

There's absolutely no way to make a profit on invented T2 BPCs.

CCP Greyscale: As to starbases, we agree it's pretty terrible, but we don't want to delay the entire release just for this one factor.
Kethas Protagonist
Protagonist Ventures
#23 - 2013-10-08 06:54:28 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
T2 BPOs do not control the markets of any decent volume items worth inventing. T2 BPOs do rule the markets of low volume items not worth inventing.


Minor quibble: a market being unprofitable for invention and a market's volume being dominated by T2 BPO production are not independent. If T2 BPOs all vanished tomorrow, presumably prices would go up in the low-volume markets. Either invention would become profitable or people would completely stop using the affected item, and I really have trouble seeing the latter happening on many items as the cost difference between BPOs and invented BPCs, and thus the price spike, is rarely egregious.

The pro-T2 BPO camp has several good arguments, but "inventors would not benefit from T2 BPO removal" is overreach.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#24 - 2013-10-08 07:09:55 UTC
Kethas Protagonist wrote:
The pro-T2 BPO camp has several good arguments, but "inventors would not benefit from T2 BPO removal" is overreach.


The set of "items not worth inventing" is not the same as the set of "items where invention loses money."

There are already tons of high margin, low volume T2 goods to produce via invention. They're a horrible pain to get sold if you end up making some (they get really peaky because lots of people come running). How does adding more to that pile help inventors?

Remember, for the most part, a rational inventor is product agnostic, so the price spike for low volume items will have to be much higher than simply the additional material and invention costs for inventors to produce them.

BPO owners are relatively locked into their production, so they'll keep churning their low volume production so long as they can get a reasonable profit (in ISK/hr, not % return, ofc).


Inventors would not benefit from the removal of T2 BPOs because inventors are able to avoid those markets dominated by BPOs without cost, the market price of markets not dominated by BPOs is unaffected by them, and the markets not dominated by BPOs are far more numerous than those that are so dominated. In other words, feeding Jita's hyperbolic 3 Crow/month habit is not going to be particularly appealing for inventors.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Sturmwolke
#25 - 2013-10-08 13:25:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Sturmwolke
They actually got nerfed when CCP moved T2 materials into the "Extra Materials" portion. Coupled with the lower datacores costs and decryptor changes, the gap between T2 invention and T2 BPOs was considerably narrowed, to almost negligible level for some items (where the bulk loss comes from invention costs - not manufacturing).

The field is a little flatter now compared to back a few years ago.
Waiting for the next nerf cycle Twisted
Deunan Tenephais
#26 - 2013-10-08 13:41:37 UTC
Lors Dornick wrote:
People who are making money on invention and doesn't want the unwashed masses to interfere in their markets.

Unwashed masses getting some T2 BPO ?
Of course...
Lors Dornick
Kallisti Industries
#27 - 2013-10-08 13:53:47 UTC
Deunan Tenephais wrote:
Lors Dornick wrote:
People who are making money on invention and doesn't want the unwashed masses to interfere in their markets.

Unwashed masses getting some T2 BPO ?
Of course...

Unwashed masses making money on T2 BPCs.

CCP Greyscale: As to starbases, we agree it's pretty terrible, but we don't want to delay the entire release just for this one factor.
Mortimer Civeri
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#28 - 2013-10-08 18:00:22 UTC
Oh noes! I don't have a T2 BPO, how will I ever spend the Billion in profit I make every month?

"I don't know which is worse, ...that everyone has his price, or that the price is always so low." Calvin
Carden
Conclave of Aritaur
#29 - 2013-10-09 07:16:14 UTC
Mortimer Civeri wrote:
Oh noes! I don't have a T2 BPO, how will I ever spend the Billion in profit I make every month?



Pay my bar tab
Samillian
Angry Mustellid
#30 - 2013-10-09 09:26:31 UTC
I keep being told you can't make a profit from T2 invention, my wallet balance and overstuffed ship hanger must obviously be illusions brought on by drinking to much Quafe.

NBSI shall be the whole of the Law
Alice Loreley
Citadel Technologies Unit
#31 - 2013-10-09 17:31:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Alice Loreley
Tau Cabalander wrote:
Alice Loreley wrote:
Let's discuss

You must be new to manufacturing, as you are completely wrong, or another Brewlar Kuvakei alt.


Lady Naween wrote:
nice to see you are still insane brewlar


You are paranoid or ate just to much blue pills? Go to a hospital and ask doctors to cure you with electricity or some sort of.
I'm not the person you're talking about, so stop this nonsence.

Ninlarra wrote:
Alice Loreley wrote:
But the number of industrialists able to produce t2 equipment without significant losses is very-very low. And the invention system of present time just kills any hope to success. And as the final blow - you're just not able to withstand to someone who has a t2 bpo.


This horrifically uninformed statement pisses me off. It pisses me off because you obviously have ZERO idea wtf you are talking about but for some reason still have the testicular fortitude to actually comment on it. How could you have done an iota of research on this subject and yet still make such an asinine statement?

I'll tell you how. YOU DIDN'T!

I started doing industry June 21st of this year. I started with 4.8 billion isk, no production skills, an unskilled alt, no pos, no idea how many different materials/components went into T2 and zero BPOs.

I'm not going to go into detail but suffice to say I have a **** ton more isk and assets now than when I started.

I suppose I should be happy there are idiots like you sitting around not producing anything cause its "just not possible" to make isk off of t2 production. You know what. Ignore this post. Carry on =p


You wrong, i did. But i start with much smaller money in my bag. Maybe because my original business was t1 construction. If you succeeded - it's great. I spend some time to invent t2 cruise missiles, but seems i did something terrible wrong, because my loss in invention reach a 50% barrier.

I don't want to ask anything more on this subject, because now i'm completely sure about my right decision to play eve in solo. Without any mess with insane people who find normal for them self to rush on anyone who take a different look or don't know some game tricks.

By the way i build to many ships (including capitals) alone, just by my own hands without spending single isk to hear you sarcastic bullshit. If you have billions to override probability theory - fine, but in fact t2 bpo is still more profitable than invention.


Thank you for your comments. This topic can be closed

EVE Online: Black Hole. Coming really soon.

And... Oh, yeah, small secret - Drifters are Talocan.
Haulie Berry
#32 - 2013-10-09 18:02:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
If you cannot make a substantial profit from invention, you are some combination of lazy and stupid.


Quote:
Without any mess with insane people who find normal for them self to rush on anyone who take a different look or don't know some game tricks.


Here's the problem: You think of it as "taking a different look", as if this is a matter of opinion that reasonable people can disagree about.

That's not the case, however. Unbeknownst to you, what you're arguing against are actual facts. You may as well be trying to tell us that 2+2 = zebra. It's utter nonsense that is mathematically, factually, and - most importantly - demonstrably false.
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#33 - 2013-10-09 18:07:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Elena Thiesant
Alice Loreley wrote:
I spend some time to invent t2 cruise missiles, but seems i did something terrible wrong, because my loss in invention reach a 50% barrier.


I'm bored, so...

Taking Scourge Fury Cruise missiles as an example since you didn't specify.

With minimum skills (Caldari Encryption, Electronic Engineering and Rocket Science at 1), invention chance is 42%.
1 Electronic Engineering data core, one Rocket Science data core needed.
Jita sell prices:
Electronic Engineering data core: 134 000
Rocket Science data core: 128 700

So a successful invention costs (on average) 625 500 ISK (Rounding to the nearest hundred). That results in a 10-run BPC at -4 ME

Building all 10 runs requires (Jita Sell prices according to eve-central)

Tritanium - 301,200 (4.89)
Mexallon - 4,500 (39.66)
Rocket Fuel - 1,260 (7288.16)
Nocxium - 1,050 (657.52)
Phenolic Composites - 590 (1214.78)
Megacyte - 530 (1657.87)
Morphite - 150 (7384.09)
Graviton Pulse Generator - 140 (19489.93)
R.A.M.- Ammunition Tech - 10 (66709.25)

Totalling that lot up per material:
Tritanium: 1 472 868
Mexallon: 178 470
Rocket Fuel: 9 183 081
Nocxium: 690 396
Phenolic Composites: 716 720
Megacyte: 878 671
Morphite: 1 107 613
Graviton Pulse Generator: 2 728 590
R.A.M.- Ammunition Tech: 667 092

Grand total: 17 623 501 ISK
If we include the average invention cost calculated above, that puts the cost of inventing and building 50000 Scourge Fury Cruise Missiles at 18 249 001

So say 18 250 000 ISK (for ease)

Scourge Fury Cruise Missiles sell in Jita for 619.74 each.
Total then for 50 000 missiles (ignoring tax solely because I don't want to try calculating it) is 30 987 000

That puts the profit for inventing and building 10 runs of Scourge Fury Cruise Missiles at 12 738 000 ISK (all prices calculated at Jita sell)

You're welcome to check my maths, I don't think I missed anything, but it's always a possibility.
Alice Loreley
Citadel Technologies Unit
#34 - 2013-10-09 18:10:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Alice Loreley
Haulie Berry wrote:
If you cannot make a substantial profit from invention, you are some combination of lazy and stupid.


Well you may be proud with your 10% profit from invention. I don't want to waste my time if the profit is below 40-50%.

Elena Thiesant wrote:

You're welcome to check my maths, I don't think I missed anything, but it's always a possibility.


Thank you, i will.

EVE Online: Black Hole. Coming really soon.

And... Oh, yeah, small secret - Drifters are Talocan.
Haulie Berry
#35 - 2013-10-09 18:13:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Alice Loreley wrote:
Haulie Berry wrote:
If you cannot make a substantial profit from invention, you are some combination of lazy and stupid.


Well you may be proud with your 10% profit from invention. I don't want to waste my time if the profit is below 40-50%.



Oh, I see. You're a margin humper.

Guess that pretty much tells us what the approximate mix of lazy and stupid is, here. Lol

Probably mine your own minerals 'cause they're free that way, too. Roll
Gizznitt Malikite
Agony Unleashed
Agony Empire
#36 - 2013-10-09 18:41:17 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Alice Loreley wrote:
I spend some time to invent t2 cruise missiles, but seems i did something terrible wrong, because my loss in invention reach a 50% barrier.


I'm bored, so...

Taking Scourge Fury Cruise missiles as an example since you didn't specify.

With minimum skills (Caldari Encryption, Electronic Engineering and Rocket Science at 1), invention chance is 42%.
1 Electronic Engineering data core, one Rocket Science data core needed.
Jita sell prices:
Electronic Engineering data core: 134 000
Rocket Science data core: 128 700

So a successful invention costs (on average) 625 500 ISK (Rounding to the nearest hundred). That results in a 10-run BPC at -4 ME
....
Grand total: 17 623 501 ISK
If we include the average invention cost calculated above, that puts the cost of inventing and building 50000 Scourge Fury Cruise Missiles at 18 249 001

So say 18 250 000 ISK (for ease)

Scourge Fury Cruise Missiles sell in Jita for 619.74 each.
Total then for 50 000 missiles (ignoring tax solely because I don't want to try calculating it) is 30 987 000

That puts the profit for inventing and building 10 runs of Scourge Fury Cruise Missiles at 12 738 000 ISK (all prices calculated at Jita sell)

You're welcome to check my maths, I don't think I missed anything, but it's always a possibility.


TBH, you shouldn't simply use the expected value for your BPC's invetion cost. There is a pretty high variance, and your "cost" should include that, or else half the time you are significantly undervaluing the cost of your BPC.

E(x) = 1 / p. Var = (1-p) / p^2 == sigma squared.

I'd recommend pricing your BPC using E(x) + 1.96 * sqrt (Var). This covers your cost of invention 95% of the time.
Now your BPC would cost (134000+128700) * (2.38 + 1.57) = 1,038,000

This has little change on your current example, but becomes very relevant when exploring the use of decrytpors.

Finally, people need to realize that if they invent and manufacturing an item, it doesn't mean it will sell easy. Somethings sell very slowly, and something have lots of competition.
Alice Loreley
Citadel Technologies Unit
#37 - 2013-10-09 19:38:58 UTC
Haulie Berry wrote:
Alice Loreley wrote:
Haulie Berry wrote:
If you cannot make a substantial profit from invention, you are some combination of lazy and stupid.


Well you may be proud with your 10% profit from invention. I don't want to waste my time if the profit is below 40-50%.



Oh, I see. You're a margin humper.

Guess that pretty much tells us what the approximate mix of lazy and stupid is, here. Lol

Probably mine your own minerals 'cause they're free that way, too. Roll


Heh, there is no reason for me to act as idiot anymore, because i see it clearly now - no one here knows about invention more than i am. I was hoping you will reveal to me something new in your try to humiliate another "lazy and stupid". Your arrogance was looking very potential. Blink

EVE Online: Black Hole. Coming really soon.

And... Oh, yeah, small secret - Drifters are Talocan.
Aischa Montagne
Blut-Klauen-Clan
#38 - 2013-10-09 21:24:39 UTC
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Alice Loreley wrote:
I spend some time to invent t2 cruise missiles, but seems i did something terrible wrong, because my loss in invention reach a 50% barrier.


I'm bored, so...

Taking Scourge Fury Cruise missiles as an example since you didn't specify.

With minimum skills (Caldari Encryption, Electronic Engineering and Rocket Science at 1), invention chance is 42%.
1 Electronic Engineering data core, one Rocket Science data core needed.
Jita sell prices:

[... Killed numbers because they are irrelevant ...]

You're welcome to check my maths, I don't think I missed anything, but it's always a possibility.


Your figures show me that you may be a good Producer, but you seem not to like to trade. But trade is the secret to make profit. The ability to produce is one possible requirement to increase value. I think your assumption are wrong. The Jita - price is not the Price the top sellers pay. At least I would not try to buy at Jita.

only my 2 cents, and this is a already mentioned Tipp in this discussion.
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#39 - 2013-10-09 21:32:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Elena Thiesant
Aischa Montagne wrote:
Your figures show me that you may be a good Producer, but you seem not to like to trade.


No, the figures show that I took Jita sell prices because they were the easiest ones to get quickly and the ones least likely to result in argument about 'wasting time making stuff' or 'that's trading profit so doesn't count' or [insert other excuse from OP as to why numbers are wrong]

That's not how I actually do things.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#40 - 2013-10-09 22:13:07 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Haulie Berry wrote:
Oh, I see. You're a margin humper.

Guess that pretty much tells us what the approximate mix of lazy and stupid is, here. Lol

Probably mine your own minerals 'cause they're free that way, too. Roll


Alice Loreley wrote:
By the way i build to many ships (including capitals) alone, just by my own hands without spending single isk to hear you sarcastic bullshit.


And is proud of it, to boot.

Alice Loreley wrote:
but in fact t2 bpo is still more profitable than invention.


%Profit is about the least useful measure of profitability. And, if you insist on using it, you absolutely must include the costs incurred by tying up tens of billions of ISK into the BPO.

For invention and manufacturing: ISK/hr and ISK/billion invested are far better measures. And by either of those measures (especially ISK/billion invested), Invention comes out far ahead.

Alice Loreley wrote:
Well you may be proud with your 10% profit from invention. I don't want to waste my time if the profit is below 40-50%.


In other words, if I can make 10% on 1 billion ISK with the same time, number of slots, etc. as you use to make 50% on 100m ISK, I'm doing better than you.

Aischa Montagne wrote:
Your figures show me that you may be a good Producer, but you seem not to like to trade. But trade is the secret to make profit. The ability to produce is one possible requirement to increase value. I think your assumption are wrong. The Jita - price is not the Price the top sellers pay. At least I would not try to buy at Jita.

only my 2 cents, and this is a already mentioned Tipp in this discussion.


Using Jita sell order prices for raw materials and buy order prices is a pretty standard pessimistic model for use in calculating expected profit. Doesn't mean you actually do that, just that you don't plan on your profits being better than that when deciding what to build.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon