Market Discussions

Zydrine has been in the crapper for months now but thanks to the new FIS focused expansion which is introducing tons of new uses for our favorite green mineral the opportunity to rake in cash money is now glowing hot.

Reasons why Zydrine is going up

The new tier 3 BCs will use up thousands of units per ship and will be in high demand because they are new, useful, and bound to be destroyed by concord in large numbers as people use them as suicide gankboats.

New capital changes are resulting in new push to produce more carriers and dreads thus soaking up more zydrine
New modules will likely soak up some zydrine as well
New supercap changes are resulting in a big push for moar titans which will soak zydrine up.

If the propaganda can be believed this winter will result in divine retribution against the evil DRF (which claims to no longer exist in an attempt to shed the target on their backs.)

TLDR

Winter is coming, buy Zydrine.

uhh... really? cos I'm pretty sure most of the recent zyd movement has been due to a very vague mention by a dev that they are thinking about removing mineral drops from drone rats and replacing them with bountys.

If anything, the titan nerf will decrease demand more than any other factors will boost it, addition of non-super capital ship requirements remain steady based on loss-rate and new capital pilots, both of which are more of less steady atm, prediction of tier 3 BC's placing extra demand on the market is wishful thinking, they'll probably be 50m isk hulls at most which will be so over priced at launch and such a small proportion of global consumption that stockpiling minerals now makes little sense for the extra few % profit that might gain you.

Miners are fleeing ice belts in favour of highsec trit due to goons and associated paranoia, trit may begin to fluctuate soon but nothing worth buying in to. goons will probably get bored soon, battlefield 3 release will sap some numbers from their ranks for a while.

The only reason the buy/sell spread has suddenly gone massive right now is because a few people are anticipating that if drone regions are going to be converted from a high isk value proportion of high end mineral drops to bountys only, that ccp will be late in announcing such a change if it makes it into the winter expansion due to a) the large quantity of content yet to be devblog'ed or formally announced, and b) possibly a little CCP paranoia about how such a change would effect the mineral market just before a winter expansion that they are pinning their hopes on boosting subscriber numbers, if they knew such a change would have drastic effects on most hull prices, but esp. their new T1t3 hulls.

PS: can't beleave that this is the thread I choose to post to that brings me out of a three year forum hiatus... but... seriously... nice attempt, 2/10. put some more thought into the next one

100%.

Doesn't change the fact that everything i posted was also entirely accurate

And let's not forget that a 5% decline in minerals consumed (from the PE skill boost) combined with T2 mining ganglinks is going to boost demand, crush supply!

I dunno about sky is the limit, but it does seem to have found a bottom. Moderate gains have been going on before the dev mention of drone drop changes, such mentions are just that and are not even yet a "soon".

Zyd is at a relative low. New top, if there are no supply or demand changes, should be around 1300 at current inflation rates. Duration to get there is anyone's guess. Winter expansion should give a bump.

I am almost certain that the 5% PE boost thing is cosmetic. Ran through it in the other thread, but basically the current situation is that the 4% improvement per level of ME actually results in 5% less minerals used per level. ie. the situation we have now is mathmatically correct in saying it improves by 4% per level but it's easier to understand when looking at it as a 5% improvement (and this can also be mathmatically correct).

Current skill improves the base multiplier (of 1.25) by 4% per level. 4% of 1.25 is 0.05 - or 5%.

As such I'm strongly minded to think they're just changing the description to relate to what people commonly imagine the skill to actually do - they think it reduces mineral consumption, and it does, by 5% per level. People's initial impression of the skill is not necessarily one of "oh, so that reduces the base multiplier applied to mineral consumption by 4% per level".

Zydrine has never been this low in the last 3.5 years, iirc. Have been buying for the last 4 months, as I do not think it will go lower. It is still pretty low (current Jita buy orders at 787) . Not sure when it will go up, but I'm hoping for at least 1200/unit :)

Protip 1

Before the titan there was 1 isk tritanium...

After the removal (aka big nerf) of titan, there will be < insert guess about tritanium price here >

Protip 2

When tritanium is low, zydrine is high.


Now you can go crazy...

I'm starting to get the impression that the market, once again, fails to recognize my genius. That is, this was not a good time to sell my zydrine stocks.

I find that every time I think I'm "a ******* genius who got out before the market crashed" I'm some dude who sold into the market while it was on the up-swing.

My solution?

When I think: "Yeah, I'd be a ******* idiot to hold this- every moron can see the crash coming and will want to gtfo"
HOLD

e: and when you think you're being clever and about to get rich, you're already ******.