Market Discussions

It seems that after many months of their value stagnating, recent events in New Eden have resulted in the largest sustained rise in price that this commodity has seen since the original introduction of PI.

Several weeks ago the price was holding level at around 12600, having slowly and steadily declined over a period of 6-8 months - yet it swiftly began a climb over several weeks to the new sell price of 16000 despite a couple of individuals evidently attempting to cash in by selling moderate stocks of it. Intriguingly, in the last 24-48 hours it would seem the sell price has hiked still further to 18800, with significant increases of buy orders following behind it.

Likely this is down to a mixture of factors such as the final drying up of supplies that were obtained from NPC sell orders around the introduction of PI, aswell as potential interdiction of PI supply by higher isotope fuel costs for logistics capitals, the diverting of PI to the creation of custom office components following the recent dev blog and of course the heavy drop in player activity that took place in the recent several months likely altering levels of supply and demand.

Either way, it seems investors have noticed that this is a good opportunity for investment, with the usual buy up of 100-200k units per day rising to a peak of 1.6 million units yesterday. Possibly the several gentlemen who have patiently been holding orders of 4 million units each at the 37000-45000 per unit price for the last year may be about to see a reward for that patience.

Certainly the numbers of people liable to still hold stocks of this item from the old NPC sell orders will have diminished significantly now that a year of steady cashing in has occured. Around 2 million units in several sell orders seperate this item from further price rises, leaving us waiting to see what investors will do next.

Time will tell.

Same here. The time has come to push prices...

Keeping more than 4 million items total in GS and PV of old stocks horded for 1 year and still buying..

Actually, the hike is temporary and the market is more likely to crash than climb as there is a lot more stockpiled GS available than buy orders, hell, even sell orders outnumber the buy orders by a fair margin, and the current consumption rate has the current stock piles lasting for several months if not a couple of years.

So yea, sell sell sell.

Yes, because those who've bought in will certainly turn a profit when the market takes a nose dive, good logic.

I suspect the poster above is sitting on a mountain of GS and wouldn't like the market to have it's bottom fall out. But there's very few buy orders left right now, and the bulk is sitting at 12k. So I can only conclude my previous statement has merit.

Recent market discussions in SCC-lounge confirm approximate 15% inflation, I myself also believe this is the number where everything will even out, so don't get hyped into buying stuff that seems a bit overinflated.


Look what happened to PLEX.... yesterday we had buy orders at 450 but right now its taken a steep nosedive, who knows about tomorow but, my point is, dont get caught in the hype especially if your not on the ball of exactly whats going on.

I have stacks of these sitting in CL-85V. I can check the actual quantities tonight when I log in. If anyone wants to do some business then shoot me a mail.
Cheers.
Dunbar.

At this point in time, the only people determining price of Guidance Systems are speculators holding GS and speculators looking to buy GS.
As such, actual market price could fluctuate in just about any direction at any given moment.

It'll probably be another 2-3 years before actual consumption reduces the stockpiles low enough so that "real" supply and demand take the reins back.
You know, as opposed to speculative supply and demand.

Allow me to help you all with some math regarding production of Guidance Systems. Tax total for various production methods. JUST the Customs Office Tax, to produce ONE unit of GS. Calculations use 10% (highsec) tax rate.

>>> p0=.5
>>> p1=50.
>>> p2=900.
>>> p3=7000.
extraction -> p0 -> p1 -> p2 -> GS
>>> p3+(10./3.)*2*(1.5)*p2+(10./3.)*2*(1.5)*8*2*p1+(10./3.)*2*(1.5)*8*2*150*p0
36000.0
extraction -> p1 -> p2 -> GS
>>> p3+(10./3.)*2*(1.5)*p2+(10./3.)*2*(1.5)*8*2*p1
24000.0
extraction -> p1 -> GS
>>> p3+(10./3.)*2*(1.5)*8*2*p1
15000.0
extraction -> p2 -> GS
>>> p3+(10./3.)*2*(1.5)*p2
16000.0

GS cannot be produced on a single planet so extraction -> p3 is invalid. We see that if you use the most efficient possible method, you will still pay 15,000 isk in *taxes alone* to produce 1 unit of GS. Totally disregarding the market value of GS long-term or prepatch, these things must be worth at LEAST 15,000 isk/u. Pre-crucible, p3's seemed to have a market value of 40-70k. If you an Interbus CO tax rate, you get 25,500 isk/u in taxes alone for ONE unit of GS.

Guidance Systems buy orders are currently in the 17k range, and they are available in the low 20s on sells.

Single best investment in the game.

Or, "do you have 20b isk sitting around doing nothing?" and "would you like it to be 60b+ isk when DUST 514 is released?"

That's assuming DUST will be enough of a success for long enough to have plenty of people in it consuming enough stuff, and that's also assuming Guidance Systems will do something pretty useful in DUST as opposed to being not more important that anything else around, and also assuming the numbers vehiculated for GS stockpiles are grossly out of proportion with actual stockpiles.
An awful lot of assumptions right there.

Sure, the price MIGHT go up to 60k a piece or even higher even before then, but it won't be due to the actual demand, just speculative demand. And it could crash back to 20k or even lower soon after. That's why I was saying the main driver of prices is speculators and people with stockpiles, not actual consumers nor producers. And it can go either way.
I heard rumors of anything up to a combined total of over 800 mil units purchased game-wide before they cut NPC orders down - even with an assumed 150k/day average consumption, that would be 14 years before the stockpiles are gone. DUST demand might as well be just a speck of sand in a duststorm in comparison.