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Isotope prices on the rise

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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#121 - 2013-08-26 06:06:49 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:
Plenty of dormant (read: "Anchored") towers out there not burning fuel. Instead of fighting over ice, many folks opted for the "meh" solution and just turned off some/all of their towers, and in so doing they negated a large part of the potential effect of CCP's much desired "OPEC" style crisis to generate conflict.

Try again, CCP. Another 20%, AT LEAST, because you didn't grasp the player "CBA'd" factor.


First of all, look at the charts, it's too early to talk final.

Second, CCP has first hand data on everything. CCP have the ability to create a simple script to know the global ice consumption data (smoothed with some EMA) and they can decide to dynamically shrink or enlarge the total ice spawns in game.

So, no, offlining POSes would only work in the short term, then the next script run tells about it and the grand total ice is lowered accordingly.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#122 - 2013-08-26 08:25:57 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:
Plenty of dormant (read: "Anchored") towers out there not burning fuel. Instead of fighting over ice, many folks opted for the "meh" solution and just turned off some/all of their towers, and in so doing they negated a large part of the potential effect of CCP's much desired "OPEC" style crisis to generate conflict.

Try again, CCP. Another 20%, AT LEAST, because you didn't grasp the player "CBA'd" factor.


There should be a corresponding drop in isotope use.

6 Months Iso

1 Year Iso


If we are only talking Highsec, then if everyone in the entirety of highsec turned off towers and ceased all use of ice related products, it would be a 15% drop in use....still leaving nullsec to supply 5% of the ice, even if high sec then decided to drain all anoms 5 times a day.

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#123 - 2013-08-26 13:30:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Krixtal Icefluxor
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:


Second, CCP has first hand data on everything. CCP have the ability to create a simple script to know the global ice consumption data (smoothed with some EMA) and they can decide to dynamically shrink or enlarge the total ice spawns in game.


Every Ice belt in High/Low/Null, when farmed out will most indeed re-spawn after a 4 hour time period in the amounts respectively of 2500/3000/3500 cubes per respectively.

End of story.


ed: Please link to any Dev Blogs delineating any changes to occur ever with this particular mechanic.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#124 - 2013-08-26 14:44:09 UTC
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:


Second, CCP has first hand data on everything. CCP have the ability to create a simple script to know the global ice consumption data (smoothed with some EMA) and they can decide to dynamically shrink or enlarge the total ice spawns in game.


Every Ice belt in High/Low/Null, when farmed out will most indeed re-spawn after a 4 hour time period in the amounts respectively of 2500/3000/3500 cubes per respectively.

End of story.


ed: Please link to any Dev Blogs delineating any changes to occur ever with this particular mechanic.


VV's point is that CCP can easily tune the amount of ice entering the game by changing the respawn time, the number of blocks per belt, or the number of belts in the game.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#125 - 2013-08-26 14:49:27 UTC
Fozzie ♥

Is probably the closest to it, with the " Our key goals during this period are to ensure that any price and supply shocks are manageable and that the overall market and gameplay effects are pointing in the right direction. On both counts we're quite happy right now. "

Read into that what you will :)

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#126 - 2013-08-26 15:12:28 UTC
mynnna wrote:


VV's point is that CCP can easily tune the amount of ice entering the game by changing the respawn time, the number of blocks per belt, or the number of belts in the game.



I'd love to hear the howling if the re-spawns were in random systems (within same region) Lol

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#127 - 2013-08-26 15:30:44 UTC
That'd fundamentally be the same as making the respawn rate longer, since it'd take longer for people to find and clear the belts, so you'd get fewer per day.

It would be some good tears though.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#128 - 2013-08-26 15:42:52 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:
The slower than expected start has the early exit speculators cheering and those still holding either panic selling or crying that they missed out.

Time will tell whether the slow start was a ruse or a whimper.

I believe popcorn is undervalued right now. Big smile


Slow starts are the best, they create the long lasting trends.


The trend can go both ways Ugh
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#129 - 2013-08-26 18:46:41 UTC
Sir SmashAlot wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:
The slower than expected start has the early exit speculators cheering and those still holding either panic selling or crying that they missed out.

Time will tell whether the slow start was a ruse or a whimper.

I believe popcorn is undervalued right now. Big smile


Slow starts are the best, they create the long lasting trends.


The trend can go both ways Ugh


Both in RL and EvE, declining prices lead to fast (and even panic) selling, which tends to make descending trends twice or thrice as steeper as ascending. The net result is that bullish markets tend to last longer (hence the jargon name "long" given to buys or, better, buy-and-hold) while bearish markets tend to last a lot less (hence the jargon name "short" given to short-sells).

The phenomenon is further amplified in EvE, because with no option to short sell, speculation traders must only use buy and hold strategies and when the markets tide changes, they are literally racing at who is the guy left holding the baby.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#130 - 2013-08-26 19:19:55 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:
The slower than expected start has the early exit speculators cheering and those still holding either panic selling or crying that they missed out.

Time will tell whether the slow start was a ruse or a whimper.

I believe popcorn is undervalued right now. Big smile


Slow starts are the best, they create the long lasting trends.


The trend can go both ways Ugh


Both in RL and EvE, declining prices lead to fast (and even panic) selling, which tends to make descending trends twice or thrice as steeper as ascending. The net result is that bullish markets tend to last longer (hence the jargon name "long" given to buys or, better, buy-and-hold) while bearish markets tend to last a lot less (hence the jargon name "short" given to short-sells).

The phenomenon is further amplified in EvE, because with no option to short sell, speculation traders must only use buy and hold strategies and when the markets tide changes, they are literally racing at who is the guy left holding the baby.


By having a massive stockpile of select materials you can effectively short sell the market, only under the assumption that you intend on buying back the materials you sold (Ice, Moon Mats, Implants work well for me). Though you are right we cannot short sell naked Shocked.

The downward pressure is also an EVE artifact I have seen where players are usually unwilling to cancel their order once listed while continuing to 0.01 their competition past a rational exit point.

My gut says that the market will be stuck in a slowly assending channel. I do not see prices falling too far nor rising too quickly because of the big players on either side.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#131 - 2013-08-26 20:32:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Sir SmashAlot wrote:


By having a massive stockpile of select materials you can effectively short sell the market, only under the assumption that you intend on buying back the materials you sold (Ice, Moon Mats, Implants work well for me). Though you are right we cannot short sell naked Shocked.

The downward pressure is also an EVE artifact I have seen where players are usually unwilling to cancel their order once listed while continuing to 0.01 their competition past a rational exit point.

My gut says that the market will be stuck in a slowly assending channel. I do not see prices falling too far nor rising too quickly because of the big players on either side.


I have some reserves on this.

Imo the most viable way to short in EvE is to purchase anti-cyclic items and/or hedging them to have a constant NAV.

Holding large amounts of un-hedged anything is very dangerous, whatever your intention to buy back later, at T = 0 you are heavily invested in a massive buy and hold operation.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#132 - 2013-08-26 21:18:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir SmashAlot
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:


By having a massive stockpile of select materials you can effectively short sell the market, only under the assumption that you intend on buying back the materials you sold (Ice, Moon Mats, Implants work well for me). Though you are right we cannot short sell naked Shocked.

The downward pressure is also an EVE artifact I have seen where players are usually unwilling to cancel their order once listed while continuing to 0.01 their competition past a rational exit point.

My gut says that the market will be stuck in a slowly assending channel. I do not see prices falling too far nor rising too quickly because of the big players on either side.


I have some reserves on this.

Imo the most viable way to short in EvE is to purchase anti-cyclic items and/or hedging them to have a constant NAV.

Holding large amounts of un-hedged anything is very dangerous, whatever your intention to buy back later, at T = 0 you are heavily invested in a massive buy and hold operation.


You are absolutely right it is a buy and hold operation no matter how I try to spin things. I would feel bad profiting off friends by asking for their stuff to flip for profit (I would rather have them join in). I might have to look into the lending rates for assets. I wonder if there is a market for it, or can I lend out assets for a return that will justify the risk/opportunity cost?

Anti-cyclic items? Are there any? Hedging, is it possible? Is there an item basket that would allow for an effective hedge to be setup? If so, on what, is it stable? I will have to ponder this, thank you Big smile. My focus is on accumulation of fixed supply dependent items that are undervalued compared to their peers/historic/production cost, with a touch of dirty speculation. So an understanding of what can be hedged or not and the cost would be very handy.

A hedge on my pirate tag or Nex clothing trades would of been nice. Other than those the EVE market has been very forgiving and generous.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#133 - 2013-08-27 06:53:42 UTC
Sir SmashAlot wrote:
I might have to look into the lending rates for assets. I wonder if there is a market for it, or can I lend out assets for a return that will justify the risk/opportunity cost?


You might want to look into less popular solutions like futures. There's very little support in EvE but you can never say never, there are always inquiring minds who love those topics. Cool

Sir SmashAlot wrote:

Anti-cyclic items? Are there any? Hedging, is it possible? Is there an item basket that would allow for an effective hedge to be setup? If so, on what, is it stable? I will have to ponder this, thank you Big smile. My focus is on accumulation of fixed supply dependent items that are undervalued compared to their peers/historic/production cost, with a touch of dirty speculation. So an understanding of what can be hedged or not and the cost would be very handy.

A hedge on my pirate tag or Nex clothing trades would of been nice. Other than those the EVE market has been very forgiving and generous.


I feel you'll appreciate a lot these two threads:

Direct and inverse correlation and hedging vs old, classic ISK faucets

and it's practical "proof on the field" sister thread by estimated Samroski:

Mineral and PLEX price correlation. Forge, 15 Oct - 14 Nov. 2012

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#134 - 2013-08-27 20:18:39 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:


By having a massive stockpile of select materials you can effectively short sell the market, only under the assumption that you intend on buying back the materials you sold (Ice, Moon Mats, Implants work well for me). Though you are right we cannot short sell naked Shocked.

The downward pressure is also an EVE artifact I have seen where players are usually unwilling to cancel their order once listed while continuing to 0.01 their competition past a rational exit point.

My gut says that the market will be stuck in a slowly assending channel. I do not see prices falling too far nor rising too quickly because of the big players on either side.


I have some reserves on this.

Imo the most viable way to short in EvE is to purchase anti-cyclic items and/or hedging them to have a constant NAV.

Holding large amounts of un-hedged anything is very dangerous, whatever your intention to buy back later, at T = 0 you are heavily invested in a massive buy and hold operation.


Are you comfortable holding large amounts of isk?
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#135 - 2013-08-27 20:31:28 UTC
Rthor wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:


By having a massive stockpile of select materials you can effectively short sell the market, only under the assumption that you intend on buying back the materials you sold (Ice, Moon Mats, Implants work well for me). Though you are right we cannot short sell naked Shocked.

The downward pressure is also an EVE artifact I have seen where players are usually unwilling to cancel their order once listed while continuing to 0.01 their competition past a rational exit point.

My gut says that the market will be stuck in a slowly assending channel. I do not see prices falling too far nor rising too quickly because of the big players on either side.


I have some reserves on this.

Imo the most viable way to short in EvE is to purchase anti-cyclic items and/or hedging them to have a constant NAV.

Holding large amounts of un-hedged anything is very dangerous, whatever your intention to buy back later, at T = 0 you are heavily invested in a massive buy and hold operation.


Are you comfortable holding large amounts of isk?


Prefer to remain fully invested as isk generates no return by itself. So returns are funneled back into something as they are earned.
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#136 - 2013-08-27 21:09:12 UTC
Sir SmashAlot wrote:
Rthor wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:


By having a massive stockpile of select materials you can effectively short sell the market, only under the assumption that you intend on buying back the materials you sold (Ice, Moon Mats, Implants work well for me). Though you are right we cannot short sell naked Shocked.

The downward pressure is also an EVE artifact I have seen where players are usually unwilling to cancel their order once listed while continuing to 0.01 their competition past a rational exit point.

My gut says that the market will be stuck in a slowly assending channel. I do not see prices falling too far nor rising too quickly because of the big players on either side.


I have some reserves on this.

Imo the most viable way to short in EvE is to purchase anti-cyclic items and/or hedging them to have a constant NAV.

Holding large amounts of un-hedged anything is very dangerous, whatever your intention to buy back later, at T = 0 you are heavily invested in a massive buy and hold operation.


Are you comfortable holding large amounts of isk?


Prefer to remain fully invested as isk generates no return by itself. So returns are funneled back into something as they are earned.


Not necessarily so if there is deflation.

I wonder if last patch was deflationary.

The point is that isk is a commodity just like other stuff. Whether you hold stockpiles of isk or anything else it makes no difference. You can only hedge against CCP if you hold a basket of crap.
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#137 - 2013-08-27 21:32:28 UTC
Rthor wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:
Rthor wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sir SmashAlot wrote:


By having a massive stockpile of select materials you can effectively short sell the market, only under the assumption that you intend on buying back the materials you sold (Ice, Moon Mats, Implants work well for me). Though you are right we cannot short sell naked Shocked.

The downward pressure is also an EVE artifact I have seen where players are usually unwilling to cancel their order once listed while continuing to 0.01 their competition past a rational exit point.

My gut says that the market will be stuck in a slowly assending channel. I do not see prices falling too far nor rising too quickly because of the big players on either side.


I have some reserves on this.

Imo the most viable way to short in EvE is to purchase anti-cyclic items and/or hedging them to have a constant NAV.

Holding large amounts of un-hedged anything is very dangerous, whatever your intention to buy back later, at T = 0 you are heavily invested in a massive buy and hold operation.


Are you comfortable holding large amounts of isk?


Prefer to remain fully invested as isk generates no return by itself. So returns are funneled back into something as they are earned.


Not necessarily so if there is deflation.

I wonder if last patch was deflationary.

The point is that isk is a commodity just like other stuff. Whether you hold stockpiles of isk or anything else it makes no difference. You can only hedge against CCP if you hold a basket of crap.


You are absolutely right, but not all items faced deflation. The mineral related market is in deflation, so in response all mineral assets were sold or put into teiricide based production jobs to add value. The remaining isk was funneled into items that would related to the ice market as longer term it "should" experience inflation. Carbides are one example (I am mostly out of this market off a nice ~30-50% pop).

Holding isk as a hedge is completely rational, but for me I find there is always something that looks like it can give a greater return holding verse not.
Mohandar Sabezan
Doomheim
#138 - 2013-08-27 23:48:58 UTC
holy batman, look at all the orders on the sell side =D I wonder how many people bought at around 800 ISK per unit, and got burned Twisted
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#139 - 2013-08-28 01:41:03 UTC
Prefer to remain fully invested as isk generates no return by itself. So returns are funneled back into something as they are earned.[/quote]

Not necessarily so if there is deflation.

I wonder if last patch was deflationary.

The point is that isk is a commodity just like other stuff. Whether you hold stockpiles of isk or anything else it makes no difference. You can only hedge against CCP if you hold a basket of crap.[/quote]

You are absolutely right, but not all items faced deflation. The mineral related market is in deflation, so in response all mineral assets were sold or put into teiricide based production jobs to add value. The remaining isk was funneled into items that would related to the ice market as longer term it "should" experience inflation. Carbides are one example (I am mostly out of this market off a nice ~30-50% pop).

Holding isk as a hedge is completely rational, but for me I find there is always something that looks like it can give a greater return holding verse not. [/quote]

We think alike.