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Dev Blog: Exploration Sites Statistics Post Odyssey

First post
Author
Solanarrr
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#61 - 2013-06-25 20:11:02 UTC
Kurron wrote:
CCP Bayesian wrote:

High-sec at least seems to be on a similar trend, albeit with a much smaller jump in usage but what on earth happened to null-sec Combat Sites? We'd need to gather some more information to find out exactly but clearly people are much less interested in them now.


Please tell me that this is some sort of joke. Anyone who does any money making in null can tell you in a heartbeat why there's a crash in the number of ratters doing Hubs.

You added tackling frigates to them.

It isn't even the presence of tackling rats that is the problem here - the issue is that by adding small, fast, high resist rats, you've removed entire categories of ships from being able to run those anoms. And to add insult to injury, the promised sanctum/haven changes (fewer small ships, more battleships) didn't materialize, so there's no reason to shift to running them either!

If you wanted to add the risk of being tackled by NPCs and then ganked, you should have added scramming cruisers - that way we could still use T3 BCs/Vindicators, we'd just have to be more careful.


I'm completely baffled by the fact that CCP doesn't seem to be able to understand the simple direct results of PvE changes, while managing to have a decent grasp on PvP (as evidenced by tiericide).


No, it obviously makes a lot more sense to have frigates, cruisers, battlecruisers, and battleships all in one anomaly designed to be run by one person.

But yeah, it's painfully obvious that if they wanted to add more risk to these sites (and in a meaningful way), all they needed to do was add scramming to either the cruisers, BCs, or battleships. But nope, lets add frigates. I too have not run a single anomaly since the changes.
Unezka Turigahl
Det Som Engang Var
#62 - 2013-06-25 21:06:25 UTC
I'd like to see graphs for hisec 4/10s: the number of players running them, the number of players who died to NPCs, and the number of players who died to other players or a combo of NPC/players.

I would think many more people are running them than before patch since they are easier to find for lower skilled pilots now. But prices suggest otherwise.

Since T3s were banned there are more flimsy ships running them, as well as lower skilled pilots, so I wouldn't be surprised to see an upswing in ship loss to NPCs. Ive seen a few player wrecks in sites, and have found sites that were started but then seemingly given up on.

PVP activity in the most sought after hisec site would just be plain interesting to see. There is definitely more criminal activity but I wonder how much ends up with a kill.
Sofia Wolf
Ubuntu Inc.
The Fourth District
#63 - 2013-06-25 21:18:35 UTC
I hope someone in CCP could make similar bog analysing results of 0.0 industry improvements in Odyssey.

I'm especially interested in how much of an increase, if any, we had in 0.0 mining, and was there any increase in number of .0. manufacturing slots being used, and by how much.

Jessica Danikov > EVE is your real life. the rest is fantasy. caught in a corporation. no escape from banality. open up yours eyes, peer through pod good and seeeeeee. I'm just a poor pilot, I need no sympathy. because I'm easy scam, easy go, little isk, little know. anyway the solar wind blows...

Nexus Day
Lustrevik Trade and Travel Bureau
#64 - 2013-06-25 22:28:28 UTC
Thanks for the exploration statistics CCP! But a few minor comments and questions.

You show one year worth of exploration being flat lined, then a spike when it is "improved". How does this spike compare to past "improvements"? In other words how much of the spike is due to something being new?

Since the "improvement" the trend for relic and data sites is downward. You could easily say this isn't indicative of future results due to the small sample size. But then why would you show results with a small sample size to begin with?

Hacking attempts is not indicative of people using the feature. As a matter of fact none of your graphs are, they just represent runs or attempts. The whole point of dumbing down exploration was to attract more people to it. Do you have any data to support that, or are the old explorers just taking advantage of you making it easier?
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#65 - 2013-06-25 23:00:13 UTC
Solanarrr wrote:
Kurron wrote:
CCP Bayesian wrote:

High-sec at least seems to be on a similar trend, albeit with a much smaller jump in usage but what on earth happened to null-sec Combat Sites? We'd need to gather some more information to find out exactly but clearly people are much less interested in them now.


Please tell me that this is some sort of joke. Anyone who does any money making in null can tell you in a heartbeat why there's a crash in the number of ratters doing Hubs.

You added tackling frigates to them.

It isn't even the presence of tackling rats that is the problem here - the issue is that by adding small, fast, high resist rats, you've removed entire categories of ships from being able to run those anoms. And to add insult to injury, the promised sanctum/haven changes (fewer small ships, more battleships) didn't materialize, so there's no reason to shift to running them either!

If you wanted to add the risk of being tackled by NPCs and then ganked, you should have added scramming cruisers - that way we could still use T3 BCs/Vindicators, we'd just have to be more careful.


I'm completely baffled by the fact that CCP doesn't seem to be able to understand the simple direct results of PvE changes, while managing to have a decent grasp on PvP (as evidenced by tiericide).


No, it obviously makes a lot more sense to have frigates, cruisers, battlecruisers, and battleships all in one anomaly designed to be run by one person.

But yeah, it's painfully obvious that if they wanted to add more risk to these sites (and in a meaningful way), all they needed to do was add scramming to either the cruisers, BCs, or battleships. But nope, lets add frigates. I too have not run a single anomaly since the changes.

The changes really haven't affected the difficulty all that much. Just you have to be a tiny bit more awake for some sites. I think the main reason for the dip is definitely the war. There are thousands of null sec players who used to rat a lot now fighting all day every day, and that's going to have an impact on the other activities they used to do. If they pulled out the null sec mining graph that probably dipped around the same time.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Traska Gannel
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#66 - 2013-06-25 23:47:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Traska Gannel
Hi ...

Ok ... I must be missing something.

The blog cited the "Angel Forsaken Hub" as a 0.0 combat site.

... but it isn't.

It's an anomaly which has been available as a warpable site without using probes for years. All that you needed to do was hit the onboard scanner for a list of available anomalies.

In addition, it used to be one of the most profitable and safe anomalis because it only had battleships and battlecruiser rats ... which all spawned at a central point. It was an easy, safe, fast and efficient combat anomaly for making isk.

The patch changed the ship composition in the Angel Forsaken Hub by adding some scramming frigates ... and possibly made other changes in the ship composition (I haven't been in one in a while). There were also changes to sanctums and havens as far as I know also affecting their profitability ... thus some folks have likely migrated from Angel Forsaken Hubs to other anoms ... no mystery at all.

If you want to look at the impact on 0.0 scanned combat sites you need to look at completion rates for the DED 7/10, 8/10 and 9/10 complexes and not combat anomalies.
S Byerley
The Manhattan Engineer District
#67 - 2013-06-26 00:01:39 UTC
No one is going to make a joke about Bayesian statistics? I've lost faith in this community.
Spathe Ne Boirelle
Dead Space Continuum
#68 - 2013-06-26 00:35:22 UTC
I love how exploration works, its pretty clear that it was meant to be easier and faster to scan down a site. But I do have 1 problem or 1 question regarding the hacking sites which seems to be odd in nature.

Questions to the devs : When you successfully complate a hacking minigame and those mini cans are release was it intended to have a "BIG" random chance of loot gathering ?

Before the patch I remember when you hacked a container, you had some loot in your can and that was it. THere was no chance of getting like the current system. Just think about it. you get around 6-10 cans when you hack correctly. At best your cargo scanner on those scans works with a timer of 5 seconds. Given the fact you have to target all containers, scan it, look at the items. At the end it doesn't give you enough time to get the item you want.

Personally, I would love to get a list of items so I can choose what I want. Either because of what I need for production or just pure profit. This current system has way too much chance in it and I don't personally like that since the original one didn't incorporate any chance at all...except for the success cycle of hacking the container.
Galphii
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#69 - 2013-06-26 01:13:45 UTC
I would speculate that the amount of cans being lost in a site is due to people preferring to do them solo. You can't force people to work together if they don't want to. You need to use a carrot (added benefit), not a stick (miss out if you don't have more players). As it stands, an individual still gets the same amount of stuff whether or not the pilot has a friend in that site, as the friend isn't necessarily handing their stash over to the first pilot afterwards.

"Wow, that internet argument completely changed my fundamental belief system," said no one, ever.

Zircon Dasher
#70 - 2013-06-26 01:17:35 UTC
Is it possible to add scale to all the graphs?

For example, total hacking attempts per day is expected to level off ~100K, but is that the line it hovers on now?The "Peak" line?

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.

Johan Toralen
IIIJIIIITIIII
#71 - 2013-06-26 02:13:05 UTC
Hope the diving income gets adressed soon.
Looks like you expect the number of explorers to stay higher then before Odyssey so i think what's needed is a much wider range of loot so the market doesn't get flooded with the same couple items from everyone. Or more jackpot items to set off the lower income from the regular loot. Tho i'm not so sure what it could be because i sorta expect everything to dive that will be put in these sites :/
Gogela
Epic Ganking Time
CODE.
#72 - 2013-06-26 03:58:07 UTC
I would like a point or some strategy to the hacking mini-game. Buy a friggin' puzzle company or something CCP. This thing is too dumb for EvE. It should be hard.

ShockedRollSad

Signatures should be used responsibly...

Epsilon Knight
Full-Fledged Insanity
#73 - 2013-06-26 04:00:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Epsilon Knight
Johan Toralen wrote:
Hope the diving income gets adressed soon.
Looks like you expect the number of explorers to stay higher then before Odyssey so i think what's needed is a much wider range of loot so the market doesn't get flooded with the same couple items from everyone. Or more jackpot items to set off the lower income from the regular loot. Tho i'm not so sure what it could be because i sorta expect everything to dive that will be put in these sites :/


Something something free market. Prices are going to get hosed until people start saying "this isn't worth doing", or "this is barely worth doing." Then they will stabilize. You're pretty much right in whatever they put into these sites is going to drop in value, and any fix other than letting the player economy come up with the value for for the labor performed and risk taken is going to flop.

The only alternative might be expanding the hacking game so that arch V and hack V are required for some sites, or so that the sites with high value items are extremely difficult to probe down without high skills. Changing the time sink for becoming moderately profitable will stem the number of people who pursue the profession, and limit the item flood. More people will still train to do it, because probing and hacking is no longer brain-hemorrhaging-ly boring, but it'll shave off some of the mission-running interlopers who can't tack a month onto their skill time before cruise missiles V.

But then, limiting the exploration crowd is exactly what CCP doesn't want to do. You've seen their trailer for the expansion, right? All bets: get ready for new, permanent lower prices on salvage, blueprints, etc.
ghosttr
CRUZADOS
Goonswarm Federation
#74 - 2013-06-26 04:09:34 UTC
Epsilon Knight wrote:
Johan Toralen wrote:
Hope the diving income gets adressed soon.
Looks like you expect the number of explorers to stay higher then before Odyssey so i think what's needed is a much wider range of loot so the market doesn't get flooded with the same couple items from everyone. Or more jackpot items to set off the lower income from the regular loot. Tho i'm not so sure what it could be because i sorta expect everything to dive that will be put in these sites :/


Something something free market. Prices are going to get hosed until people start saying "this isn't worth doing", or "this is barely worth doing." Then they will stabilize. You're pretty much right in whatever they put into these sites is going to drop in value, and any fix other than letting the player economy come up with the value for for the labor performed and risk taken is going to flop.

The only alternative might be expanding the hacking game so that arch V and hack V are required for some sites, or so that the sites with high value items are extremely difficult to probe down without high skills. Changing the time sink for becoming moderately profitable will stem the number of people who pursue the profession, and limit the item flood. More people will still train to do it, because probing and hacking is no longer brain-hemorrhaging-ly boring, but it'll shave off some of the mission-running interlopers who can't tack a month onto their skill time before cruise missiles V.

But then, limiting the exploration crowd is exactly what CCP doesn't want to do. You've seen their trailer for the expansion, right? All bets: get ready for new, permanent lower prices on salvage, blueprints, etc.


Its not the items that are the issue its the demand, demand was already relatively weak prior to odyssey.

CCP needs to create more demand for exploration related materials. Add bpc merging that uses some materials, shift datacore to supply from passive research agent farming, make data interfaces have finite amount of uses (so that people need to purchase more than one).


Ajunta Thor
Ascendance
Goonswarm Federation
#75 - 2013-06-26 04:10:03 UTC
CCP i have solved your problem for you :)
Why has the amount of Angel Forsaken Hubs done dropped off since the expansion?
Simple Null Sec is played owned space as you know and so generally the only people ratting in this space or specifically the sites in question take ships and fittings of a higher value then normal. This means mostly the people ratting those sites are the players of whatever alliance/coalition owns that region of space. Currently N3 owns a large part of Angel's Null Sec pre-expansion the majority of N3 was ratting it up which explains the pre-expansion site counts. There was times where in a specific region we had 4-6 systems with over 12k rat kills in 24h's according to dotland and a total of 10-12 if not more systems over 10k.
Shortly after Odyssey N3 as all of eve knows deployed to help Test with the goons. Now in 24h's dotland shows not a single system over 12k rat kills and only 1 over 10k. So its not some failing in the game mechanics or a disinterest in this specific site but more like no one is really around to do them atm. I will say though that some of the changes to null sec ratting sites which made Hub's less profitable then havens according to the patch could account for a very small amount of the drop off but honestly most people dont even notice that yet.
Jean-Pierre Boirelle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#76 - 2013-06-26 04:36:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Jean-Pierre Boirelle
I have been trying out exploration since odyssey but I also did exploration 5 years ago when I dabbled in EVE as well.

The differences are stark CCP has made exploration feel like a real activity.

However I think the ideal of exploration and the reality of EVE are making it hard for newcommers to get into this.

Truth of the matter is that unless you have a partner or a fleet with you your survive ability is hard to gauge. I have gotten ganked doing a Exploration Combat site Escalation in low sec. I can't imagine how I would solo a data/relic site in low/null sec. I am a decent multitasker but I don't think simultaneously running the hacking mini game and d-scanning is my idea of a good time. Not to mention how in the old exploration you can hack and rat at the same time (numerous video guides pretty much say this is the only way to explore in low/null). Now you have to take down the rats before you can attempt a hack; and don't forget that d-scan!!!

Also I'm sorry but the toss in the air grab what you can thing at the end is silly; I feel like I lost most of the items; And why is the ability to "tractor" in items not affected by, I don't know, the number of tractor beams you have equipped? Very disappointing when I hacked a site ready with 3 tractor beams......

Finally I must say the hacking game is alot more enjoyable than I thought. There is a sense of strategy and luck that mixes well and I don't feel like I'm just clicking away until I reach the objective. I would make a recommendation for a future update that your virus should be configurable like every other fighting vehicle in the game. There should be the ability to load scripts and plugins and customize the virus. Likewise the hacking board should be made more complex and add more obstacles and opponents.

However, being that I cant see how to solo explore where the money is and high sec is pretty much getting farmed out I'm not sure if I can truly answer my own question which is can I just explore and make isk? So far the answer has been no; not alone at least.
Hawke Nolen
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#77 - 2013-06-26 06:18:42 UTC
How about providing statistics on how this impacted on market value of the loot derived from this new mechanic.......
now that EVERYONE is doing it the market value of t2 salvage has depreciated to such an extent that you guys would have to look at ways of adding more valuable or faction loot to make up for the difference... One of your developers claimed that capsuleers would be getting the same amount of ISK value loot as before odyssey,,,, well that's no longer true is it?...Shocked

Simple fact, making it easier has not made it better........


Stop loot spews!! - It causes carpal tunnel syndrome!! - If you can open the can the contents are yours... simple effort and reward.
Bring the rats back - in null sec at least as in WH space... it will create a better market by making it a niche profession again.

Crappy Hacking minigame is crappy
Ze'ev Sinraali
Ataraxia Pharmacies
#78 - 2013-06-26 06:28:22 UTC
S Byerley wrote:
No one is going to make a joke about Bayesian statistics? I've lost faith in this community.


Clearly you need to re-evaluate your priors.
CCP Bayesian
#79 - 2013-06-26 08:37:35 UTC
Thanks for all the comments!

For those of you asking for statistics on other features that changed in Odyssey, I hope some will be along soon as other teams take a look at their specific areas of interest in more depth.

EVE Software Engineer Team Space Glitter

CCP Bayesian
#80 - 2013-06-26 09:17:38 UTC
Nexus Day wrote:
You show one year worth of exploration being flat lined, then a spike when it is "improved". How does this spike compare to past "improvements"? In other words how much of the spike is due to something being new?


Thanks for the excellent questions.

It's a fairly common trend across videogames for the new new to be extremely popular for a short period of time before declining to a stable population then declining further until death. How long that tail is depends on how good the game is. This landscape is changing a bit with the advent of alpha-funding and other similar models though.

On EVE a lot of changes that have predictable market effects will also get lots of speculator uptake as well. You can see this in the Hacking Attempts graph as the first week is full of activity which begins to tail off at a quite quick rate which rapidly begins to decrease with minor bumps for weekends. This is an expected trend as the players who still don't enjoy the feature and speculators leave to new pastures. I'm basically taking a bet on where the stable level will be, the 100,000 line is the one the graph is dancing above and below. The downward trend during the week also stopped for the first time today and we saw a slight uptick in attempts yesterday (which might just be due to the publicity this blog generated or it might just be noise).

Quote:
Since the "improvement" the trend for relic and data sites is downward. You could easily say this isn't indicative of future results due to the small sample size. But then why would you show results with a small sample size to begin with?


Downward after, in some cases, a more than ten-fold increase in use. As above this is what we'd expect to see with any new feature addition or major change.

Quote:
Hacking attempts is not indicative of people using the feature. As a matter of fact none of your graphs are, they just represent runs or attempts. The whole point of dumbing down exploration was to attract more people to it. Do you have any data to support that, or are the old explorers just taking advantage of you making it easier?


They definitely don't measure directly the number of people using the feature but they are definitely indicative of the number of people using it otherwise we wouldn't see an uptick at the weekends when we know more people are online. One thing that suggests that this is not just the old players exploiting an "easier system" is the scale of uptake.

This data collection and aggregation on a larger scale is quite new and as you reasonably point out this captures only at the character/user level. It says nothing about the subscriber level where people have multiple accounts. However characters are owned by users and users are subscribers so it should be possible to aggregate up to the subscriber level. This sort of data mining will be done by our Research and Statistics guys.

EVE Software Engineer Team Space Glitter