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First step to create a real bond market in EVE

First post
Author
Adunh Slavy
#61 - 2013-06-16 19:23:32 UTC
Your bonds will do nothing to reduce the money supply since they are a risk free return of ISK upon maturity. All you are going to accomplish is trade one form of credit for another.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Alexander wulfgard
Korrupted Gaming
#62 - 2013-06-16 19:24:18 UTC
Erotica 1 wrote:

I suggest that we draw up an outline of how a player-run project like this could work. We can then present it to the Mittani for consideration.



I would very much like to work with anyone willing to listen to my proposals and taking a genuine interest in monetary concerns and capital markets.
Alexander wulfgard
Korrupted Gaming
#63 - 2013-06-16 19:29:29 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Your bonds will do nothing to reduce the money supply since they are a risk free return of ISK upon maturity. All you are going to accomplish is trade one form of credit for another.


This is not true!

Upon maturity of the old bonds, new bonds are issued instantly. This will offset the potential increased money supply. This procedure is also general practise in RL economies both for governments and corporates.

As stated before, the only threat is if the new bonds are not fully subscribed for.
Adunh Slavy
#64 - 2013-06-16 19:44:49 UTC
Alexander wulfgard wrote:




I can see that you do not understand money and credit. I will take RAW's advice and instead eat pop corn

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Alexander wulfgard
Korrupted Gaming
#65 - 2013-06-16 19:46:35 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Alexander wulfgard wrote:




I can see that you do not understand money and credit. I will take RAW's advice and instead eat pop corn


No need to get grumpy just because you are wrong.
Molic Blackbird
Orion Faction Industries
Orion Consortium
#66 - 2013-06-16 21:07:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Molic Blackbird
Alexander wulfgard wrote:


In the CCP quarterly economic newletter inflation concers have been raised in the past, but I do agree with you in most of your observations. However my suggestion of creating government securities was never meant to control inflation as primary function but merely as the step stone towards liberal capital markets. The inflation controlling element in my suggestion is however just a positive effect which CCP can use actively to manage the money supply better.



The capital market in Eve currently has zero rules from CCP regulating it. How does creating a new game mechanic which issues NPC bonds make the capital market more free? It does the exact opposite as it would create a floor in which interest rates could not fall below.
Adunh Slavy
#67 - 2013-06-16 21:28:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
Alexander wulfgard wrote:

No need to get grumpy just because you are wrong.



Hypocrite much, Harry?

P.S. You have been wrong ever since your first thread "https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2978985#post2978985"

You've not learned anything yet, still running around with your sophmoric understanding of what ISK is.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Alexander wulfgard
Korrupted Gaming
#68 - 2013-06-16 21:47:08 UTC
Molic Blackbird wrote:


The capital market in Eve currently has zero rules from CCP regulating it. How does creating a new game mechanic which issues NPC bonds make the capital market more free? It does the exact opposite as it would create a floor in which interest rates could not fall below.


I see your point and concern in my somehow contra dictionary statement.
But we don't just need free markets we also need efficient and liquid markets.
With the current setup you can defiantly argue that we have free a free market. Players are free to pursue any business opportunity and create any kind of company they like within EVE. However this is not happening because of various reasons, many which can be linked to system requirements, lack of investor protection and no rules and regulations.

In regards to eve capital markets I want to create a system which finds the sweet spot, where investors can meet borrowers on fair terms. This I believe will require regulations aswell as new IT system in-game features.

The new game mechanic is just another tool for CCP to control the money supply.
I agree with you say that government issues will create a floor or benchmark for interest rates and I only see this as positive aspect as investors will be able to value private bonds against this benchmark, exactly as its done IRL.

Finally, the setup for government issues are designed to work as a proxy for the private issues I would like to see implemented later.
When ingame IT systems and markets are up running smoothly on government bonds the mechanics will be much easier implemented into the private sector.

Alexander wulfgard
Korrupted Gaming
#69 - 2013-06-16 21:51:17 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Alexander wulfgard wrote:

No need to get grumpy just because you are wrong.



Hypocrite much, Harry?

P.S. You have been wrong ever since your first thread "https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2978985#post2978985"

You've not learned anything yet, still running around with your sophmoric understanding of what ISK is.



buddy just let it go , you lost the argument about money supply and now you are just getting desperate. Better if you just go back to your popcorn as you said you would do.
I am not sure you have any real interst in this field anyway as you do not make any real comments on the substance behind the suggestion.

Adunh Slavy
#70 - 2013-06-16 22:00:48 UTC
Alexander wulfgard wrote:

buddy just let it go , you lost the argument about money supply and now you are just getting desperate. Better if you just go back to your popcorn as you said you would do.
I am not sure you have any real interst in this field anyway as you do not make any real comments on the substance behind the suggestion.




ROFL, you are so full of your self.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Zaxix
State War Academy
Caldari State
#71 - 2013-06-16 22:16:09 UTC
I can't decide if OP speaks English as a second language. His sentences rarely make it from start to finish without weird leaps of logic and odd phrasal constructions. I guess it doesn't matter, because none of this is ever going to happen and if OP wanted it considered as an actual game mechanic, he should be posting in Features and Ideas.

Now, let's argue about something more constructive, like how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

Bokononist

 

Alexander wulfgard
Korrupted Gaming
#72 - 2013-06-16 22:32:36 UTC
Zaxix wrote:
I can't decide if OP speaks English as a second language. His sentences rarely make it from start to finish without weird leaps of logic and odd phrasal constructions. I guess it doesn't matter, because none of this is ever going to happen and if OP wanted it considered as an actual game mechanic, he should be posting in Features and Ideas.

Now, let's argue about something more constructive, like how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.


I do not want this thread to be about my English. However if you need me to clarify any past sentences which I may have constructed wrong or where I did not explain myself good enough I will be happy to do so now.

You may have been right that the features and idea forum would have been a better choice for this thread. I chose this forum because it is market oriented and its not uncommon that players post ideas and suggestions here as well.
Zaxix
State War Academy
Caldari State
#73 - 2013-06-16 22:53:52 UTC
Alexander wulfgard wrote:
Zaxix wrote:
I can't decide if OP speaks English as a second language. His sentences rarely make it from start to finish without weird leaps of logic and odd phrasal constructions. I guess it doesn't matter, because none of this is ever going to happen and if OP wanted it considered as an actual game mechanic, he should be posting in Features and Ideas.

Now, let's argue about something more constructive, like how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.


I do not want this thread to be about my English. However if you need me to clarify any past sentences which I may have constructed wrong or where I did not explain myself good enough I will be happy to do so now.

You may have been right that the features and idea forum would have been a better choice for this thread. I chose this forum because it is market oriented and its not uncommon that players post ideas and suggestions here as well.

Your entire argument is pinned on the idea that NPC corps are running a deficit. They aren't. Every NPC corp sells NPC goods, collects rent from offices, and, at least in the lore and the underpinnings of datacore farming, is engaged in major R&D. They're also collecting ISK and such for LP conversion. They have many forms of income, its just that most aren't actual ingame mechanics. For example, I think it's safe to assume that the Minmatar Mining Company is involved in mining. As at least one previous poster has suggested, if you really wanted to follow this argument through instead of simply declaring yourself a "winner," you'd separate the faucet/sink conversation from the lore behind the concept of NPC corporations. Your proposal creates a faucet, regardless of how you choose to describe it.

As some famous person once said, this is a solution in search of a problem.

And now to let the thread die the death it deserves.

Bokononist

 

Joan Greywind
The Lazy Crabs
#74 - 2013-06-17 06:09:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Joan Greywind
Let me correct a common misconception regarding money supply. When money supply increases doesn't necessarily mean we are going to have inflation, there is another main factor that you have to take into consideration, the increase in raw commodity supply. As before let me give you an hypothetical example.

Say that the total isk in EVE is 500 trillion, and we only have one commodity trit which we use to build everything, which we have a total of 1000 in all of EVE. Now let us say through the various activities of ratting, missioning etc. (isk creation activities) we have a total inflow of 100 trillion in the EVE economy in the year 2012 (an increase of 20%). Now you will say ah we will have inflation of 20% and that is bad because inflation is bad (it isn't by the way, uncontrollable inflation is bad, but planned controlled ones are healthy for the economy, i'll explain in a bit). But you still didn't take into account the increase in trit over the year 2012. Now if the miners mined 200 trit over the year (20% increase), then we shouldn't have any inflation, if they mined more we would have deflation, and if they mined less we would have inflation.

So you see don't take the raw money supply numbers alone, you have to ask yourself how much more commodities got created (produced) also in EVE. CCP should strive to make the money supply, or net inflow of isk, slighly higher than the new commodities being created each year. Having a low number of inflation is good, as it encourages investment so your ideal money doesn't lose value. It is like a reverse hidden interest rate. The risk free rate in EVE is the inflation rate, we already have one. Of course having a high one means wealth deterioration which decrease the value of the iskies. Inflation also plays a role in balancing the game since that means older player don't have an inherent advantage over newer players, as their isk reserves will slowly lose value over time (thankfully not like wow where you lose all your value on each expansion, so bittervets don't moan please).

My point is simply I don't see how a central bank is needed or why. Sure it is a "nice" idea, but the sole job of the central bank is to control the money supply and as I explained in the previous post it is controlled and CCP is on it. So why the extra complication I still don't understand.


Just to answer your argument about CCP controlling the NPC prices to fit their needs and payouts. How is your idea of CCP controlling the central bank have any less control than through the NPCs, they are still control over the interest rates. At least with NPC's the players have a significant degree of control, as CCP can't just swoon in and changes payouts and prices on a whim (they only do when something is clearly broken or needs heavy rebalancing, HAI FW).

We have to remember that this a game and CCP will try to keep things within its intended parameters. For example let us say that suddenly minning veld becomes the highest paid activity in EVE, and people flock left and right to mine it. Do you think is a good idea for CCP to not do nothing about it and let it happen, or would it be wiser to maybe change the ore composition or maybe increase the missioning income etc.

At the end of the day the economy can swing, but it can only swing in the range that CCP allows it to (and it is a pretty wide range for a game). Another example (not hypothetical this time) is the wormhole phenomena in EVE. Many people moan that wh's get a lot of iskies, relative to their efforts. CCP didn't predict that people will actually live in wormholes, and they factored in the time lost to actually finding the holes and getting out every time you wanted to do sites. They also didn't expect people to actually use dreads to kill them. Now obviously this wasn't intended, but CCP elected not to change the payouts of these sites (until now at least) because even though they were higher than intended they didn't break the game or brought heavy imbalances. So at the end of the day the the wormhole culture as we know it now, was created by the players, and that is just one example why EVE is a great game.

Now regarding your argument about banks don't run on trust alone, yes of course you put your money in the banks for the interest payout. But trust is a fundamental ingredient that is neccassary for a bank to function, and it just isn't there in EVE. the credit risk premium required will just be too high to be anywhere near feasible to account for the lack of trust. And to tell you the truth the people that have acquired that trust, especially on the MD forums can easily acquire funding if they need to. So again under the current mechanics of EVE, I just don't see banks working. My offer still stands if you are adamant about it, as I said if 200% is not enough to cover your credit risk, I can offer you 2000%. So let me know

It is a long post I know, but I tried to make it as short as possible but at the same time being coherent.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#75 - 2013-06-17 06:56:03 UTC
@Several people above

EvE has a central bank and it also indirectly manages ISK velocity and outflow both through PLEX manipulation regulation and confiscation (and ISK confiscation).
Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#76 - 2013-06-17 08:38:32 UTC
Alexander wulfgard wrote:


Creation of a "risk free" rate.



^^ I found your problem right there.

Basically proves you dont really understand EVE. Your rather strange one eyed view on economy in general is already pointed out pretty extensively.

Oh and what VV was saying is that ccp by being developers control isk sinks and faucets, and regulates PLEX prices accordingly, in the event of to much isk flowing in, becoming available in player hands through other means, or by grops of players gaining a huge isk advantage from exploit or misbalance.




Lady Molefield
Burpies Incorporated
#77 - 2013-06-17 19:20:59 UTC
Joan Greywind wrote:
The risk free rate in EVE is the inflation rate, we already have one.


Best statement in the whole thread.

Also for those interpreting "risk free" as literally risk free... it's a financial term for a theoretical rate. Even IRL the risk free rate is not risk free.
RAW23
#78 - 2013-06-17 20:21:12 UTC
Lady Molefield wrote:
Joan Greywind wrote:
The risk free rate in EVE is the inflation rate, we already have one.


Best statement in the whole thread.

Also for those interpreting "risk free" as literally risk free... it's a financial term for a theoretical rate. Even IRL the risk free rate is not risk free.


The only significant risk in investing is that of a scam and he wants to remove this risk and have the bonds secured by god (CCP). The risk of FX fluctuations and inflation are completely trivial by comparison.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

Harry Forever
SpaceJunkys
#79 - 2013-06-17 23:39:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Harry Forever
Alexander wulfgard wrote:
With the recent development and expansions of EVE I believe its time to take the step to create a better capital market.


Creation of a "risk free" rate.

In order to value all other financial products in Eve, a risk free rate is essential.

The major and minor factions all pay ISK to players via missions & bounty prizes and they receive ISK via transaction taxes, skill books etc. However they are running a deficit which is covered by "printing" ISK and hence increasing the money supply.

Instead of printing ISK, CCP can create a risk free rate by selling bonds through EVE market (at NPC bank stations) to cover the defecit.

I suggest 3 types of bonds: 1 week, 1mth and 3mth bonds, which are sold every Sunday.

All bonds will have a notional of 10mio ISK and the rate determined by selling price. Players can enter market orders at fx 99.00 which means that the player pay 9.9mio for the bond and receive 10mio at maturity. CCP start filling highest bids first and fill them until the deficit have been covered. If rates get to high or market orders cannot cover the deficit , CCP central bank will buy the outstanding bonds by printing.


To make the system more realistic and incorporated with EVE universe the current currency ISK which is completely unrealistic need to be replaced. ( https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2974285#post2974285 )


Instead of 1 currency (ISK) , 4 new currencies wud need to be created , each printed and regulated by the major factions: Caldari yen ¥ , Gallente Mark , Minmatar pund £ and Amarr franc ₣.


We need these changes to create a free banking system and later a efficient stock & bond market. I will create another thread on these topics later.




this is perfect, i already mentioned the next expansion should be an economy expansion where trading, market data and reporting gets improved, adding a real banking system with currencies, stocks and bonds would be highly recommended!

however all the kids will freak out and start shooting statues again, because they would not have a clue what it is about :D fantastic!
flakeys
Doomheim
#80 - 2013-06-18 14:45:34 UTC
Harry Forever wrote:
Alexander wulfgard wrote:
With the recent development and expansions of EVE I believe its time to take the step to create a better capital market.


Creation of a "risk free" rate.

In order to value all other financial products in Eve, a risk free rate is essential.

The major and minor factions all pay ISK to players via missions & bounty prizes and they receive ISK via transaction taxes, skill books etc. However they are running a deficit which is covered by "printing" ISK and hence increasing the money supply.

Instead of printing ISK, CCP can create a risk free rate by selling bonds through EVE market (at NPC bank stations) to cover the defecit.

I suggest 3 types of bonds: 1 week, 1mth and 3mth bonds, which are sold every Sunday.

All bonds will have a notional of 10mio ISK and the rate determined by selling price. Players can enter market orders at fx 99.00 which means that the player pay 9.9mio for the bond and receive 10mio at maturity. CCP start filling highest bids first and fill them until the deficit have been covered. If rates get to high or market orders cannot cover the deficit , CCP central bank will buy the outstanding bonds by printing.


To make the system more realistic and incorporated with EVE universe the current currency ISK which is completely unrealistic need to be replaced. ( https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2974285#post2974285 )


Instead of 1 currency (ISK) , 4 new currencies wud need to be created , each printed and regulated by the major factions: Caldari yen ¥ , Gallente Mark , Minmatar pund £ and Amarr franc ₣.


We need these changes to create a free banking system and later a efficient stock & bond market. I will create another thread on these topics later.




this is perfect, i already mentioned the next expansion should be an economy expansion where trading, market data and reporting gets improved, adding a real banking system with currencies, stocks and bonds would be highly recommended!

however all the kids will freak out and start shooting statues again, because they would not have a clue what it is about :D fantastic!



If only they where as smart as you harry the clown .

We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.