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[LOAN #5] PRVEN: 30B @ 5%/month, 2 months, uncollat. (CLOSED)
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Kethas Protagonist

Protagonist Ventures

Likes received: 72

#1 - 2011-10-21 05:26:47 UTC | Edited by: Kethas Protagonist

Hello, MD. Let's make some isk together.

TLDR

Principal: 30.0B
Interest: 5-10%/month (see below)
Funds due: on or before November 1st, EVE time
Payment: interest payments on or before Dec. 1st and Jan. 1st; principal returned on or before Jan. 1st
Collateral: None

Current outstanding debt:
1) An undisclosed amount to Grendell, >100% collat., open-ended
2) 5.0B to Tanaka Kharn, ~100% collat. by 1k units of Quafe Zero, open-ended
3) 10.0B to flakeys, uncollateralized, due Nov. 1
4) 10.0B to Michelle P1H9A8N1, uncollateralized, due Nov. 1

Background

I'm an industrialist that's dabbled in manufacturing since way back in my EVE Uni days and have been engaged fulltime since early February. I'm good at what I do; my last three audits put my NAV at:

Roughly 1B in mid-February: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1470457#2 , second post
Roughly 23B in early June: www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1519281&page=2#1 , first post
Roughly 45B in mid-August: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1564399&page=1#28 , 28th post (*)

I currently operate four distinct businesses:

1) My original niche offers a high return on capital and easy hauling, but uses blueprints too inexpensive to serve as collateral.

2) My second niche offers a lower return on capital, but uses high-value blueprints and thus lets me finance production with lower-interest collateralized loans.

3) I've been experimenting in a third niche since early July, and thanks in large part to my previous loan, have now expanded into it to the point where I have as much capital invested in it as my first niche. It offers an even higher return on capital than the first business while retaining easy hauling, but involves invention, and thus more clicking - a lot more clicking.

4) I have my eyes on a fourth niche, one with a significantly lower return on capital but that requires much less keyboard time. It also has a sky-high market volume, so I could dump a lot of money into it without affecting the market. It's not lucrative enough to finance with the kind of interest rates I expect to get in an uncollateralized loan, so I'm not actually manufacturing yet, but I have a large set of BPOs set aside in a collateralized holding agreement with Grendell that I'm researching for future use.

Beyond my own personal industry, I've also recently formed what can best be described as an EVE industry think tank, or research coalition:

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12816

We're growing quite slowly, by design. I've met some great people through the recruitment process, I'm genuinely excited about each member we've accepted, and I'm looking forward to what we'll achieve.

Purpose

I have three distinct goals for this loan:

1) Maintain my current levels of working capital for niches #1 through #3. I'm trivially confident that I can profitably employ 20B of the requested 30B, since that's exactly what I've been doing for the past 2+ months.

2) Raise the working capital I allocate to niches #1 and 2 so that I can lengthen the jobs. This was supposed to be a goal of my previous loan, but to be honest, instead of lengthening jobs the capital went towards improving profits through better manufacturing uptime (having a higher material buy order uptime to eliminate delays waiting for full material stocks before queueing manufacturing jobs, for example). Given my current capital, I can only afford enough stock at one time to keep jobs going for 36-48 hours, and to be honest it's tiring keeping those refreshed. I'll be paying more in interest without actually earning more through increased market throughput, but the time savings are worth it to me.

3) Start experimenting in a fifth business. I have a large number of alts that have been going through training for a while now, and I can improve my profits by shifting my focus from T1 manufacturing to more skill-intensive, and thus more exclusive, T2 manufacturing.

(*): Sorry about the naked URLs, the EVE forums seem to be bugged such that including '%' in your post breaks URL aliases: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=15174

Kethas Protagonist

Protagonist Ventures

Likes received: 72

#2 - 2011-10-21 05:27:03 UTC | Edited by: Kethas Protagonist

Audit

The most recent audit of my assets was in mid-August:
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1564399#28 , 28th post

The most recent audit of my profitability was at the start of October:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=127686#post127686

Both were performed by yours truly, because of the difficulty in finding auditors on MD. The most recent peek at my business by an outside party was in early June:
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1519281&page=2#38 , 38th post

I will not be financing an audit out-of-pocket for this offering, but I'm open to receiving one. If any combination of investors find an auditor willing to audit me, and a combination of those investors and RAW23's MD Audit Fund are willing to handle payment, please post in the thread. I reserve the right to veto an auditor, but I'll post my reasoning and you can decide for yourself whether it's convincing.

As with my last offering, I will pre-emptively give my approval to the following people taking a look at my API information:

RAW23
Breaker77
Vaerah Vahrokha (if for some reason you can coax him out of retirement)
~~Tutskii~~ *cough*

Note that I haven't approached these people. Some of them aren't even actual auditors. Even the non-auditors, however, could presumably look at my job history and publicly confirm that I've been running far, far more industry jobs than is healthy over the past couple months, and I suspect all of them have some price at which it'd be worthwhile for them to perform an audit. That's between them and the investors, though. I know that "I'm open to being audited, but reserve the right to veto" might (justifiably) raise some eyebrows, so I want to preemptively demonstrate that I won't simply veto any would-be auditor that volunteers.

Bidding

The 30.0B in debt will be auctioned off here. If interested, please post with the amount you'd be lending as well as the minimum interest rate, no greater than 10%, you'd be willing to accept. Please only bid in increments of 1B and integer interest rates. On or before November 1st, EVE time, I'll close bidding and pick winners by starting with the lowest interest rate asked and climbing higher until either the bids are exhausted or the bond is filled. All winning bidders will receive the highest, clearing rate, and if the bond doesn't fill all bidders will receive 10%. You thus aren't penalized for bidding lower.

I've written up a more elaborate description of the audit system to handle edge cases that have popped up in my previous offerings; you can read the delightfully-named Standard Protagonist Offering Rates and Konditions writeup at:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=24064

Buyout

If at any time one or more investors collectively cover the entire 30.0B bond at 5%, bidding will be closed and those investors will win.

Early withdrawal

Creditors can request a return of their investment at any time. By doing so they sacrifice the current month's interest payment, and if the request is made during the first week of the month, sacrifice the previous month's interest payment as well (which will be deducted from the principal returned). Depending on market conditions and the size of the withdrawal I may need anywhere from three to six days to liquidate the funds.

Risks

Listed in descending order of estimated severity:

Wardec: This remains my biggest risk, but with the recent rules change on wardec-dodging is substantially reduced.

(See: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=19881 )

I retain my strong POS presence, and POS structures are still a lynchpin of my industrial activity, but between dodging wardecs by alliance-hopping, in-station manufacturing with out-of-corp alts for hauling, and being online enough that I'd likely have plenty of time to unanchor and stow POS structures, I'm not concerned. The "strong and proactive measures (which I will not comment on) to ensure any party wardeccing Protagonist Ventures doesn't enjoy the experience" from my previous offerings continue. For its duration, a wardec would slow, but not end, our profits.

Failure to capitalize: As with my past offerings, I think this is unlikely - I've been reliably picking consistently profitable products for eight months now - but not impossible. My bond payments are contractual obligations, though; I won't use lack of profitability as an excuse to not, or only partially, repay investors. My current NAV is in the 50B+ realm. For me to lose the ability to repay investors after receiving 30B in fresh capital, I'd have to not only fail to earn a profit but somehow lose at least 40-odd billion, corresponding to, for example, losing many fully-loaded haulers - which, now that I have access to freighters and an Orca, are never profitable for suicide gankers to hit.

Stop playing: I can't see a reason for this happening, but in the event I lose interest in EVE or otherwise stop playing, I'll immediately end the bond and repay investors their full principal + interest, as if the bond had run to completion.

Scam: Quoted verbatim from previous offerings, as I rather like how I put it:

I wrote:

I know it's politically correct to include this in a list of risks, and seen as pretentious not to, but, well, tough. I know this offer is not a scam. I will thus state that this offer is not a scam. I won't say "invest only what you can afford to lose" because you will not be losing your investment.

From February to October I've turned 300M or so into 50-60B, in large part thanks to remaining in MD's good graces and having access to borrowed funds. I don't think it'd make sense for a person in my position to throw that away.

Kethas Protagonist

Protagonist Ventures

Likes received: 72

#3 - 2011-10-21 05:27:12 UTC | Edited by: Kethas Protagonist

History

[BOND #1] (failed to raise money, but you can still see how I answered questions)
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1470457

[BOND #1.5] & [BOND #1.5.1] (3.1B total, 100% collateralized, closed successfully)
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1493599
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1493599 , 13th post

[BOND #2A] (7.05B total, 100% collateralized, closed successfully)
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1508030

[BOND #3] (5.0B total, uncollateralized, closed successfully)
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1519281

[LOAN #4] (20.0B total, uncollateralized, open, due Nov. 1)
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1564399 ... on the old forum
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=14865 ... on the new forum

Future plans

Not much that's MD-relevant for a couple months. 30B should tide my current industry over just fine with room to grow, and I'll want to devote most of my creative energies towards making sure my new alliance gets up and running smoothly.

I should add, though, that our alliance will eventually want to hire one or more players/corps to act as brokers: we handle the market research, manufacturing, and hauling; you handle babysitting the buy and sell orders. (It'd also have ancillary benefits, such as letting our entire alliance launder sales through your NPC-corp trader alt to avoid retaliation from the people we/you undercut.) There's a lot of money to be made in serving as the storefront for an entire alliance, and if you already have a trader alt in place, it probably wouldn't be too much additional hassle. If you might be interested, hit me up.

FAQ

Why did you call this offering a "loan?" Aren't MD offerings called bonds?

This has irked me for a while. A "bond" is a type of security - it's a freely-tradeable financial product that can change hands. If you buy a bond from the US government (namely, a Treasury), you're allowed to resell it to another investor. Most of what happens on MD are loans, or private agreements between two or more parties. I'm not explicitly giving my investors the right to sell their income stream to someone else, so it's better called a "loan," not a bond. (Granted, I'm sure I'd be fine with reselling under most circumstances, I just don't want to give the okay to unlimited paper-shuffling hassle on this end.)

What about [insert esoteric bidding edge case here]?

Really, just see the SPORK thread:

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=24064

If I missed something, though, let me know.

Final winning creditors:
flakeys (30B @ 5%)

Final clearing interest rate: 5%

Other bids:
Dyanmo (5B @ 6%)

Kethas Protagonist

Protagonist Ventures

Likes received: 72

#4 - 2011-10-21 05:27:20 UTC | Edited by: Kethas Protagonist

DO NOT SEND ME ISK YET.

I currently have 20B outstanding in uncollateralized debt, 10B each to flakeys and Michelle P1H9A8N1. When I return their money - on or before Nov. 1 - I'll ask them to post here to confirm, so my new creditors don't have to worry about me having my grubby little hands on more than 30B uncollateralized at once.

Doomheim 3,311
flakeys Doomheim Likes received: 3,311	#5 - 2011-10-21 06:00:33 UTC \| Edited by: flakeys 1 30 B @ 7% Might i btw add that i prefer that payments will be made AFTER the previous bond closes. We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.

Kethas Protagonist

Protagonist Ventures

Likes received: 72

#6 - 2011-10-21 06:05:29 UTC

flakeys wrote:

30 B @ 7%

Might i btw add that i prefer that payments will be made AFTER the previous bond closes.

I guess I don't need to send you that "new loan thread is up" notice ingame, huh. Lol

And yes, obviously. The final thing I'm going to put up in the OP is a "DO NOT SEND ME ISK UNTIL THE PREVIOUS INVESTORS CONFIRM THEY'VE RECEIVED THEIRS BACK" in nice big letters.

The Graduates The Initiative. 7
Dyanmo The Graduates The Initiative. Likes received: 7	#7 - 2011-10-21 13:36:18 UTC 1 flakeys wrote: 30 B @ 7% Might i btw add that i prefer that payments will be made AFTER the previous bond closes. 4b @ 6% ! snatching invest chances away like that, you're MEAN !


flakeys Doomheim Likes received: 3,311	#8 - 2011-10-21 15:24:31 UTC 1 Dyanmo wrote: flakeys wrote: 30 B @ 7% Might i btw add that i prefer that payments will be made AFTER the previous bond closes. 4b @ 6% ! snatching invest chances away like that, you're MEAN ! No YOU .. We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.


Dyanmo The Graduates The Initiative. Likes received: 7	#9 - 2011-10-22 17:44:42 UTC 1 Dyanmo wrote: flakeys wrote: 30 B @ 7% Might i btw add that i prefer that payments will be made AFTER the previous bond closes. 4b @ 6% ! snatching invest chances away like that, you're MEAN ! change it to 5b @ 6% got some money back.


flakeys Doomheim Likes received: 3,311	#10 - 2011-10-22 18:20:53 UTC 1 Dyanmo wrote: Dyanmo wrote: flakeys wrote: 30 B @ 7% Might i btw add that i prefer that payments will be made AFTER the previous bond closes. 4b @ 6% ! snatching invest chances away like that, you're MEAN ! change it to 5b @ 6% got some money back. Getting a bit greedy are we? We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.


Dyanmo The Graduates The Initiative. Likes received: 7	#11 - 2011-10-22 19:05:47 UTC 1 said the guy who tried to fill it in one go

flakeys

Doomheim

Likes received: 3,311

#12 - 2011-10-22 23:39:03 UTC | Edited by: flakeys

Dyanmo wrote:

said the guy who tried to fill it in one go

I noticed at the last reply : volition cult.

Kethas Protagonist wrote:

Buyout

If at any time one or more investors collectively cover the entire 30.0B bond at 5%, bidding will be closed and those investors will win.

Offer 30 B at 5%

We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.


Kethas Protagonist Protagonist Ventures Likes received: 72	#13 - 2011-10-23 04:28:16 UTC 1 Bought out, thank you. Would you be okay with simply sending the additional 20B (after Michelle confirms I've returned her 10B), instead of me returning your 10B and then you sending the full 30B?


flakeys Doomheim Likes received: 3,311	#14 - 2011-10-23 06:07:59 UTC 1 Kethas Protagonist wrote: Bought out, thank you. Would you be okay with simply sending the additional 20B (after Michelle confirms I've returned her 10B), instead of me returning your 10B and then you sending the full 30B? Sure thing keth We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.

Kethas Protagonist

Protagonist Ventures

Likes received: 72

#15 - 2011-10-27 20:12:27 UTC

Michelle informed me two days ago that, for RL reasons, she'd be away starting today and unable to confirm repayment until well into November. Yesterday I repaid her 10B principal + 900M interest for October early, hoping to give her a chance to confirm. As she hasn't confirmed receipt by now in either this thread or my new loan's, she presumably won't until some time in November.

When I informed flakeys of this, he asked that I post the explanation for Michelle's lack of confirmation publicly, presumably so that if for some reason I'm making it up Michelle can see and challenge me. That's this post. I'm also posting in my old loan's thread.

For the record, Michelle's reason for being away (which I will not disclose), if true, is legit and I don't particularly mind (although it's unfortunate that it makes me look a bit sketchy until she can get back). Informing flakeys of the discrepancy early, these posts, etc. are just due diligence.

flakeys

Doomheim

Likes received: 3,311

#16 - 2011-10-27 22:36:30 UTC

Kethas Protagonist wrote:

When I informed flakeys of this, he asked that I post the explanation for Michelle's lack of confirmation publicly, presumably so that if for some reason I'm making it up Michelle can see and challenge me.

Indeed keth you presumed right it is as you described.IT gives her -dunno the rl gender so going by character

- enough time to response before we proceed with the new investment.As she is not part of the expansion i want to make sure she runs no risk she did not set herself open to Blink

Planned expansion still stands keth on my side though so no worries there.

We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.


flakeys Doomheim Likes received: 3,311	#17 - 2011-10-29 19:27:45 UTC 1 Send the extra needed 20 B isk with an initial 10 B still in keth's hands to achieve the 30B investment . Good luck keth We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.


Kethas Protagonist Protagonist Ventures Likes received: 72	#18 - 2011-10-29 19:31:37 UTC 1 20B received. With that, we're live; the first interest payment will be 1.5B on or before Dec. 1.


Kethas Protagonist Protagonist Ventures Likes received: 72	#19 - 2011-11-26 21:55:46 UTC 1 1.5B interest sent. 1.5B interest + 30B principal repayment on or before Jan. 1. I'll roll over the debt at that time, but it'll probably stay at or slightly above 30B.


flakeys Doomheim Likes received: 3,311	#20 - 2011-11-27 06:25:38 UTC \| Edited by: flakeys 1 Confirming receipt , thx keth. We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.

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