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ship cost increasing?
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Ciyrine
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#1 - 2013-05-19 20:12:40 UTC
Im a new player comimg back after a 2.5 year break. I was reading and not sure i was understanding correctly. But ship costs are going up on june 4th? All of them?

Because i have the ability to buy a scorpion, rattlesnake or widow if these ships are going to increase in cost id rather buy them now before the price skyrockets. So will these ships increase in cost?
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#2 - 2013-05-19 20:41:22 UTC
Some ship costs have been rising due to the rebalancing regime known as "Tiericide". This June 4th, it's going to affect battleships. Most other smaller ship classes have already been dealt with, with the main exception being that T2 ships have not yet been rebalanced.

Please review various Dev Blogs issued over the last year or so for vast quantities of info, charts and poetic waxings.

And WB. Blink

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )
mechtech
Ice Liberation Army
#3 - 2013-05-19 20:46:58 UTC
There is an insane stockpile of BS. It's a great investment, but expect a very slow rise in prices.

For reference, battle cruisers had build cost increases a while ago, and they're currently below the pre-change prices.
Alex Grison
Grison Universal
#4 - 2013-05-20 04:31:49 UTC
I want you to imagine a world where ships are boats, and boats are made out of fruit.

What does this tell you about the current economical situation???

If boats are made out of ships and ships are a kind of fruit. Where do they get the extra things from? They have to come from somewhere. One simply cannot get things from nothing.

Instead, blergs are toogles, and toogles are sometimes weevilards.

Considering that we already know that ships are boats, and most boats are made out of a kind of fruit.

yes
Tul Breetai
Impromptu Asset Requisition
#5 - 2013-05-20 06:45:01 UTC
Alex Grison wrote:
I want you to imagine a world where ships are boats, and boats are made out of fruit.

What does this tell you about the current economical situation???

If boats are made out of ships and ships are a kind of fruit. Where do they get the extra things from? They have to come from somewhere. One simply cannot get things from nothing.

Instead, blergs are toogles, and toogles are sometimes weevilards.

Considering that we already know that ships are boats, and most boats are made out of a kind of fruit.

The fruits come from the boats; this is empirical fact. But the boats come from the fruits on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, creating a thriving underground market. If the price of fruits increases, it's because the fruits are more useful on Tuesdays than on Wednesdays. Which moon phase is it today? I digress, the moon is irrelevant. It's all in the boats.

There's nothing worse than an EVE player, generally considered to be top of the food chain in the MMO world, that cannot smacktalk with wit and coherency.
Xintri Ra'Virr
Yamaguchi-Gumi
#6 - 2013-05-20 07:18:48 UTC
Ciyrine wrote:
Im a new player comimg back after a 2.5 year break. I was reading and not sure i was understanding correctly. But ship costs are going up on june 4th? All of them?

Because i have the ability to buy a scorpion, rattlesnake or widow if these ships are going to increase in cost id rather buy them now before the price skyrockets. So will these ships increase in cost?


It's hard to say for sure.

As you can check on SiSi new building cost for BS will be around 200m ISK at current mineral prices.

Thing is many expect mineral prices will go down because of Odyssey changes. When CCP will increase basic mineral amounts in ABC ores import of low end minerals into null might be reduced or even stopped causing prices to drop hard.

Also many large entities are building tousands of ships for months now in hope to make huge profits after Odyssey expansion.
Danari
Syncore
#7 - 2013-05-20 08:31:35 UTC
mechtech wrote:
There is an insane stockpile of BS. It's a great investment, but expect a very slow rise in prices.

For reference, battle cruisers had build cost increases a while ago, and they're currently below the pre-change prices.


Not completely true. They may be below pre-change prices, but mineral costs have tanked a bit, so they're not below recent costs. It's true I haven't turned over any Prophecies since the change, but I started moving Hurricanes precisely two months after, and Drakes two weeks after that -- both high-volume hulls which led to the surplus depleting fairly quickly. My GP since they started moving again has been 7.3 and 4.5% respectively, not fantastic but healthy.
Danari
Syncore
#8 - 2013-05-20 11:29:06 UTC
Xintri Ra'Virr wrote:

Also many large entities are building tousands of ships for months now in hope to make huge profits after Odyssey expansion.


I defy you to back that up with facts. You have no idea how hard it is to pre-build 'thousands' of battleships in high-sec, let alone deep space. That act would require trillions of isk of idle minerals earning nothing pre-patch. If high volume battlecruisers cleared out in under three months, battleships will clear out even more quickly.
Theo Sotken
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#9 - 2013-05-20 14:27:32 UTC
Danari wrote:
Xintri Ra'Virr wrote:

Also many large entities are building tousands of ships for months now in hope to make huge profits after Odyssey expansion.


I defy you to back that up with facts. You have no idea how hard it is to pre-build 'thousands' of battleships in high-sec, let alone deep space. That act would require trillions of isk of idle minerals earning nothing pre-patch. If high volume battlecruisers cleared out in under three months, battleships will clear out even more quickly.



Here's a quote from Mynnna on his production
'Only about 2400 total, and they're all out of build already. And I've already been selling them to people willing to lock their cash up longer than me, though I dunno if I'll get to move them all before the patch.'
Ciyrine
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#10 - 2013-05-20 17:35:15 UTC
So i should expect scorpion, rattlesnake, widow prices to increase because bs prices are going up right? Sorry, there is soo much information to absorb
Ciriaco Waldvogel
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2013-05-20 17:48:13 UTC
Theo Sotken wrote:
Danari wrote:
Xintri Ra'Virr wrote:

Also many large entities are building tousands of ships for months now in hope to make huge profits after Odyssey expansion.


I defy you to back that up with facts. You have no idea how hard it is to pre-build 'thousands' of battleships in high-sec, let alone deep space. That act would require trillions of isk of idle minerals earning nothing pre-patch. If high volume battlecruisers cleared out in under three months, battleships will clear out even more quickly.



Here's a quote from Mynnna on his production
'Only about 2400 total, and they're all out of build already. And I've already been selling them to people willing to lock their cash up longer than me, though I dunno if I'll get to move them all before the patch.'



Seeing how there are 12 varieties of BS, that means about 200 of each type. What is the turn over in Jita on a slow day? And don't forget, he has some of the deepest pockets in the game. I can't imagine too many people building more than that.
Marsan
#12 - 2013-05-20 19:14:45 UTC
Ciyrine wrote:
So i should expect scorpion, rattlesnake, widow prices to increase because bs prices are going up right? Sorry, there is soo much information to absorb


No the widow will likely remain stable in price as T2 battleships aren't getting changed , and their cost is not primarily tied to minerals. Rattlesnakes might decrease in price as they aren't changing while competing Navy Issue BS are getting buffs. Scorpion will certainly increase in price relative to minerals as their cost to build is basically time and minerals. The problem is that CCP is changing low end minerals in Null Sec which will most likely decrease the cost of all basic tech 1 BS's like the Scorpion.

Personally I expect prices on many tech 1 BSs to go up for until the patch happens then decrease in value as the mineral market falls for the next 3-6 months. Which why I'm buying various select battleships, and reselling them before the patch comes out. The summer patch is very complex economically and there are no sure bets like with prior patches.

Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a grumpy small portion of the community.
Mr LaboratoryRat
Confederation of DuckTape Lovers
#13 - 2013-05-20 21:32:58 UTC
nice one
Illest Insurrectionist
Sparta.
#14 - 2013-05-20 22:55:46 UTC
Danari wrote:

I defy you to back that up with facts. You have no idea how hard it is to pre-build 'thousands' of battleships in high-sec, let alone deep space. That act would require trillions of isk of idle minerals earning nothing pre-patch. If high volume battlecruisers cleared out in under three months, battleships will clear out even more quickly.



Trillions of idle isk isn't a big deal. It isn't that one person has trillions, rather 100+ combine to be trillions.

Take a look at the volume graphs of tier one battleships and you'll easily see trillions in sales from these changes. Specifically dominixes and armageddons.

None of the tier 1 battlecruisers have cleared out. I don't have any idea where you got this.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#15 - 2013-05-20 23:14:21 UTC
Im going to say only Amarr ships stand any chance of going up in price.

as for minerals.... Oh did you see the new trit/pyerite rich rocks in low/null?
if anything, the prices wont be going up, Amarr ships, May possibly be the only thing that stands a chance of not going south.

Also, id like you to head to Jita and have a nice close look at a 3 month history for Technetium prices, then head on over to the Dev blogs and have a read on the matter.
Im not seeing a dramatic crash, but I do not see prices growing across the board.

Personally iv completely pulled out of almost all of my current Industrial endeavors and reformulating everything so I can get back on track, because outright T1 T2 manufacture has a higher risk of losing isk then gaining isk, (with my current setup)

The highsec market is at very high risk of volatility right now, unless you are capable of throwing around 200B isk, then lets face it, things have Radically changed and the market will feel the changes, probably sooner then later.
Alex Grison
Grison Universal
#16 - 2013-05-21 04:05:52 UTC
Tul Breetai wrote:
Alex Grison wrote:
I want you to imagine a world where ships are boats, and boats are made out of fruit.

What does this tell you about the current economical situation???

If boats are made out of ships and ships are a kind of fruit. Where do they get the extra things from? They have to come from somewhere. One simply cannot get things from nothing.

Instead, blergs are toogles, and toogles are sometimes weevilards.

Considering that we already know that ships are boats, and most boats are made out of a kind of fruit.

The fruits come from the boats; this is empirical fact. But the boats come from the fruits on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, creating a thriving underground market. If the price of fruits increases, it's because the fruits are more useful on Tuesdays than on Wednesdays. Which moon phase is it today? I digress, the moon is irrelevant. It's all in the boats.


Whats a tuesday?

I use different names for the days

Mangus
Tharkor
Tootorr
Durea
Inglang
Putmurr
Weevunt

You will find that this simplifies things by an order of three and a half.

Ships are pretty much the same things as boats. So we have pretty much been talking about the same thing in this entire thread.

This is indicative that we are actually just a small group of birds that are hallucinating

yes
Danari
Syncore
#17 - 2013-05-21 13:50:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Danari
.
Manny Moons
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#18 - 2013-05-23 14:24:03 UTC
Well the facts are the facts. Most of the BS hulls will require significantly more minerals to build post-patch. So barring a significant decrease in the overall cost of minerals, the cost to build most BS hulls will increase post-patch. Pre-patch stockpiles will delay the rise of BS sale prices to that new build cost. The unknowns are (1) exactly what the post-patch mineral prices will be (it will take time to know this because minerals are also stockpiled), (2) how large the pre-patch BS hull stockpiles are, and (3) how much BS demand will be affected by increased hull prices and rebalancing changes.

And while T2 ships are not being rebalanced in Odyssey, their prices will necessarily be changing due to the T2 component material changes and POS fuel price increases caused by the reduced availability of ice in highsec.

There are so many inter-related changes in Odyssey that I am unable to reach many confident conclusions.
Adunh Slavy
#19 - 2013-05-23 14:52:06 UTC
Manny Moons wrote:

There are so many inter-related changes in Odyssey that I am unable to reach many confident conclusions.



+1

And let's throw another unknown at the BS speculation: moon goo moving around is going to create some churn in null sec, churn, in eve, usually results in things blowing up.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Tinu Moorhsum
Random Events
#20 - 2013-05-23 15:40:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Tinu Moorhsum
Manny Moons wrote:


There are so many inter-related changes in Odyssey that I am unable to reach many confident conclusions.



Yeah, it's not clear to me either. But if I put on my tinfoil hat then what I forsee is an early spike in BS prices and then followed by a crash in prices and then a soft adjustment upwards over an extended period of time, maybe a year or more.

Why?

Because build costs will initially spike right after the patch due to current low-end mineral prices and then soften out as the price of the low-ends drops. The price drop in low-ends won't be instant so people who know this will wait to build BS's because of two things:

- they know that build prices will be lower if they wait
- they know that there is a huge stockpile of BS hulls waiting for market.

So I think right after the patch the number of new BS hulls being made is going to be very low. (ie. supply side shortage)

Add to that the fact that the Armageddon, in particular, is going to be a viable nullsec alpha-fleet ship and you'll see quite a few of these being lost as nullsec alliances clash to control resources after the shake up. This will take place quickly because nullsec alliances will respond very rapidly to grab what they can. (ie, increase on demand side)

So supply will drop, demand will increase and the third factor is that people with stockpiles are going to "wait and see" what happens to prices (dampening supply). As prices go up they will not sell right away becaue they'll hope to ride the wave right to the peak.

There has already been some price speculation so the initial launch of the spike might go through a short period of winding up before it takes off.

The spike will be short lived though.

The bubble will burst when the first fat cat dumps a load of BS's on the market to take their profits and causes people to think that the peak has been reached and then follow suit. Once the flood gates are open supply will increase dramatically as BS's change hands from stockpiles to traders who are speculating on the price. Some of those traders will be disappointed as they buy BS's for prices that they won't be able to ask for quite a while going forward. Prices will drop back to under the level of the build price today +30%, initially from profit taking and then from panic dumping, after which they will climb slowly to their new build price going through one or two more smaller such adjustments until:

a) mineral prices have reached their new equilibrium
and
b) manufacturers start making hulls again
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