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Why 500k?

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Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#21 - 2013-05-07 19:14:23 UTC
E-2C Hawkeye wrote:
Even if you take that number at its highest and double it not even taking in account for alts you still fall far short.
Lolno. You're just still assuming an unrealistically high activity from each person.

50–60k peak users represents maybe ⅛ of the active accounts. If it were 120k, it would be pretty much everyone in that time zone. So already, you're looking at almost half the accounts that would have their regular play time being logged on, which is amazingly high, but then we should adjust that downwards since neither time zones nor player activity is as sharply divided as that. They'll float into each other. At any rate, spread that out over the week, and you get maybe 5h online per player, which is entirely in line with what you see in the polls they've published every now and then.

Quote:
I have been on all hours of the night on the weekends and I don’t see the magic spike for those who are in different time zones.
Why should there be any kind of spike at all (besides the roughly two-hour US/EU overlap)?

There should really only be a dip during periods when no populus timezone is active… which is exactly what we see. There are 24 hours in a day; there are 400-something thousand accounts on TQ… and what are the hourly online averages, again? Hmm?

Quote:
Does the server feel heavy populated to you?
At 50k+ for the days and hours I play, it certainly does.
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#22 - 2013-05-07 19:14:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Ranger 1
Currently online, on Tuesday in the middle of the work day here in the US:

Tranquility only: 50,983

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#23 - 2013-05-07 19:18:28 UTC
when are you playing with 25k? :o

Even mornings in EU TZ its usually 30k+ when I log in, atm it is 51k.

To assume only 50k players implies everyone is permanently logged in. So right now, the entire population of eve is logged in....or something. Only, there are at least 5 subscriber accounts I know of which arent logged in just now ^^

Are there 500k unique players? Not at all. Are there 500k accounts? sure, why not?

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

Din Chao
#24 - 2013-05-07 19:18:47 UTC
Ranger 1 wrote:
Currently online, on Tuesday in the middle of the work day here in the US:

Tranquility only: 50,983

And... how does that make you feel?
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#25 - 2013-05-07 19:20:09 UTC
Din Chao wrote:
Ranger 1 wrote:
Currently online, on Tuesday in the middle of the work day here in the US:

Tranquility only: 50,983

And... how does that make you feel?

Left out. Cry

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#26 - 2013-05-07 19:20:27 UTC
Ranger 1 wrote:
Currently online, on Tuesday in the middle of the work day here in the US:

50,983


It's mostly Goons, they are online right now because when you live in yo momma's basement and she splits here welfare check with you, you can do that! CCP should make Ramen Noodles an ingame commodity so we can eject them every time Goons try to gank someone, it'll be like flares on a heat seeking missile!

* Jenn aSide says screw it and puts in app to Goons because that actually sounds like a good deal, just need momma to sign up for welfare*
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#27 - 2013-05-07 19:32:37 UTC
…in fact, at an average online count of 39k or more ever since Retribution across both TQ and Serenity, that's 6.5 million account-hours per week, or just over 13 hours per week per account. To me, that actually sounds rather high and would suggest that the number of accounts is much higher than a mere 500k (but then, those online-hours would include not just a bunch of trail accounts that aren't counted among the 500k, but also a bunch of 23.5/7 bots that bring the hour count up).

So yeah, no. 500k almost sounds too small a number.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#28 - 2013-05-07 19:43:16 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Tippia wrote:
but also a bunch of 23.5/7 bots that bring the hour count up).

So yeah, no. 500k almost sounds too small a number.



Also legitimate 23.5/7 alts. Like AFK Cloakers, Market Alts (mine stays online because I don't want to bother typing things when I want too oogle Jita), Safari alts retaining their corp membership till (or past) dt, etc.



Anyway, to the guys who don't understand how to find a population from sampling:
[Average PCU]/[Fraction of the Week Spent Online]=[Population]


Per http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility average PCU has been around 30k (judging from the closest read to the end of the graph I could get with my mouse).
Per https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/pr_100302/ the average gamer plays 8hrs a week in 2010. Let's say EVE accounts for half that time on an average player.

So:
(30k*168)/4=1.26m Accounts.... which doesn't sound right.

Going the other way, to get a better idea of how much time an EVE player spends weekly,
[Population]*[Fraction of the Week Spent Online]=[Average PCU]

500k*x=30k
Solve for x
x=.06
Convert to hours by multiplying by 168
10.08hrs per week on average.

So, on average, we're above average Lol


The only way, given the unambiguous data available to us, for the server population to be under 100k is for the average account to be logged in 8+ hours a day.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Maxpie
MUSE LLP
#29 - 2013-05-07 19:54:29 UTC
Unsuccessful At Everything wrote:
Yes yes, we all know that Eve is full of Alts.


Were all fine with it.

Move along.



Please speak for yourself. Personally, I believe alts take away from the immersion and consequences of an otherwise fairly elegant game design.

No good deed goes unpunished
FlamesOfHeaven
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#30 - 2013-05-07 20:08:20 UTC
Time zone.... I bet the world is flat amirite?
Danni stark
#31 - 2013-05-07 20:11:01 UTC
Din Chao wrote:
Ranger 1 wrote:
Currently online, on Tuesday in the middle of the work day here in the US:

Tranquility only: 50,983

And... how does that make you feel?


it makes me feel like it's evening in europe and i've just cracked open another cider.

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#32 - 2013-05-07 20:11:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
RubyPorto wrote:
Also legitimate 23.5/7 alts. Like AFK Cloakers, Market Alts (mine stays online because I don't want to bother typing things when I want too oogle Jita), Safari alts retaining their corp membership till (or past) dt, etc.

[maths]
Yeah, I suppose.

I just did the following:

· Assume 7h/week for the average normal account use (2h each week-end day, 1h every other working day).
· Assume 164.5h/week for the 23.5/7 accounts (because that's what it comes out to).
· Assume 20k trials active and futzing around on the server in addition to the 500k subscribed accounts (because, hey, optimism).
· Take 39k average online (from eve-offline.com) for 168h/week or 6,552,000 account-hours per week.

Solve: 7x + 164.5(520,000-x) = 6,552,000 (where x = normal accounts)
→ 501,511 normal-use subscribed accounts (of which 20k are trials), 18,489 all-hour accounts.
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#33 - 2013-05-07 20:13:53 UTC
Maxpie wrote:
Unsuccessful At Everything wrote:
Yes yes, we all know that Eve is full of Alts.


Were all fine with it.

Move along.



Please speak for yourself. Personally, I believe alts take away from the immersion and consequences of an otherwise fairly elegant game design.


Agreed.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal
Ocih
Space Mermaids
#34 - 2013-05-07 20:14:52 UTC
FlamesOfHeaven wrote:
Time zone.... I bet the world is flat amirite?


That's the thing that makes the just under 70K log in very EVE like. My guess, there is in fact around 200K Active in EVE but if you really think 12 million are playing WoW I have a carbon freighter I'd like to sell real cheap. All Online games spin their numbers. Not sure why, don't much care. My subs are active, that's all I concern myself with.
Setaceous
Nexus Prima
#35 - 2013-05-07 20:30:39 UTC
Ranger 1 wrote:


I can't remember the last time when I logged on and the player count has been anywhere near that low.

You know, it really doesn't mean much to point out "an insatiable need to be correct" when that person actually IS correct. Smile

This is the middle of the work day here in the states, so numbers should be pretty low right now. Quick, somebody log in and tell us how many are on... as I'll admit I don't normally log on in one of the slower periods for EvE.

I log on during the evening New Zealand Time, and I've never seen less than 25k on Tranquility. Even if I stay up late on a work day and log on after downtime (midnight NZT).
Setaceous
Nexus Prima
#36 - 2013-05-07 20:40:16 UTC
Ocih wrote:
FlamesOfHeaven wrote:
Time zone.... I bet the world is flat amirite?


That's the thing that makes the just under 70K log in very EVE like. My guess, there is in fact around 200K Active in EVE but if you really think 12 million are playing WoW I have a carbon freighter I'd like to sell real cheap. All Online games spin their numbers. Not sure why, don't much care. My subs are active, that's all I concern myself with.

Another good point. If you're enjoying yourself, why worry what other people are doing? The only people that should worry about such numbers are the game companies and their investors. For a player there should be only two things to worry about:

1. Are you enjoying yourself?
2. Can you afford the sub?

If no to either then you should probably just leave.
E-2C Hawkeye
HOW to PEG SAFETY
#37 - 2013-05-07 21:00:47 UTC
Forum Clone 77777 wrote:
E-2C Hawkeye wrote:
Tippia wrote:
Concurssi Mellenar wrote:
I've only ever heard talk of subscriber counts, not accounts.
In The Butterfly Effect video, a phrase that goes something along the lines of "your actions could touch the lives of more than 300000 people in 230 countries". People, not accounts. And that video was made some time ago.
These days, I've heard talk of there being 500000 subscribers. Not accounts.
Welcome to marketing. The numbers are always accounts, not people. Mainly because there's no reliable way of counting actual people — at best, you can generalise numbers from polling data (which will have a significant self-selection bias among those with more accounts).

E-2C Hawkeye wrote:
Any one that plays sees the server population. Weekends it can reach 50kish. Most times the op is correct ~25k.
…except that this would assume that every last player is always online 23.5/7. So no, the OP is ridiculously incorrect.


Even if you take that number at its highest and double it not even taking in account for alts you still fall far short. I have been on all hours of the night on the weekends and I don’t see the magic spike for those who are in different time zones. Unless the population numbers at log in are inaccurate.

Does the server feel heavy populated to you? Most times I wounder with those 25k if half are alts or afk even.

In the end its still just a number. The number means nothing to mean. What matters to me is the feel of the server.

What’s ridiculous is your endless insatiable need to always be correct . Try stepping off your high horse now and then.


You feel the universe is dead? Well, maybe where you are, but then again, I can also go to somewhere in space where Id be the only one around for 20 jumps. I can also go to a place where hundreds of ships fly past me every second. Its all about where you are, the most remote corner of null wont have the same activity as Jita, obviously.


Nope never said that. Just said it doesnt feel 500k populated. This is a single shard not multple servers like WOW or EQ2
E-2C Hawkeye
HOW to PEG SAFETY
#38 - 2013-05-07 21:04:10 UTC
Tippia wrote:
RubyPorto wrote:
Also legitimate 23.5/7 alts. Like AFK Cloakers, Market Alts (mine stays online because I don't want to bother typing things when I want too oogle Jita), Safari alts retaining their corp membership till (or past) dt, etc.

[maths]
Yeah, I suppose.

I just did the following:

· Assume 7h/week for the average normal account use (2h each week-end day, 1h every other working day).
· Assume 164.5h/week for the 23.5/7 accounts (because that's what it comes out to).
· Assume 20k trials active and futzing around on the server in addition to the 500k subscribed accounts (because, hey, optimism).
· Take 39k average online (from eve-offline.com) for 168h/week or 6,552,000 account-hours per week.

Solve: 7x + 164.5(520,000-x) = 6,552,000 (where x = normal accounts)
→ 501,511 normal-use subscribed accounts (of which 20k are trials), 18,489 all-hour accounts.

Great work at making your own numbers. These have to be accurate and true...after all this is the internet. "Bonjour"

I doubt the marketing people at ccp are going to low ball thier own numbers to seem less sucessfull Roll
E-2C Hawkeye
HOW to PEG SAFETY
#39 - 2013-05-07 21:08:12 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
E-2C Hawkeye wrote:


Does the server feel heavy populated to you? Most times I wounder with those 25k if half are alts or afk even.

In the end its still just a number. The number means nothing to mean. What matters to me is the feel of the server.


Yea, to hell with empirical evidence, how does a server of video game that represents 7000 solar systems FEEL, that's a much better way to judge things. Just like my ex-wife use to say "I don't care about the facts, i care about how I FEEL"......

Quote:

What’s ridiculous is your endless insatiable need to always be correct . Try stepping off your high horse now and then.


Yea, Tippia, why don't you let go of all the "fact", and "evidence" and "reason" BS you keep spouting and get with the real (E-2C Hawkeye) plan and just tell us what FEELS right to you? Let your self be wrong all the time like hawkeye, not having to think is SO damn liberating it ain't even funny!


(And no, I'm not going to reimburse any exploded sarcasm meters guys, since CCP wants to nerf my magic moon goo spigot that CCP hands out to everyone who lives in null simply for living in null)


To bad all you have is ASSupmtions. I knew it wouldnt be long before you started fabricating your own data to help prove your right. They say perception is reality. So since you and tippa always percieve to be right then it has to be so. "Bonjour"
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#40 - 2013-05-07 21:11:08 UTC
E-2C Hawkeye wrote:
Jenn aSide wrote:
E-2C Hawkeye wrote:


Does the server feel heavy populated to you? Most times I wounder with those 25k if half are alts or afk even.

In the end its still just a number. The number means nothing to mean. What matters to me is the feel of the server.


Yea, to hell with empirical evidence, how does a server of video game that represents 7000 solar systems FEEL, that's a much better way to judge things. Just like my ex-wife use to say "I don't care about the facts, i care about how I FEEL"......

Quote:

What’s ridiculous is your endless insatiable need to always be correct . Try stepping off your high horse now and then.


Yea, Tippia, why don't you let go of all the "fact", and "evidence" and "reason" BS you keep spouting and get with the real (E-2C Hawkeye) plan and just tell us what FEELS right to you? Let your self be wrong all the time like hawkeye, not having to think is SO damn liberating it ain't even funny!


(And no, I'm not going to reimburse any exploded sarcasm meters guys, since CCP wants to nerf my magic moon goo spigot that CCP hands out to everyone who lives in null simply for living in null)


To bad all you have is ASSupmtions. I knew it wouldnt be long before you started fabricating your own data to help prove your right. They say perception is reality. So since you and tippa always percieve to be right then it has to be so. "Bonjour"

The current number of people online during a non-peak time are a fact... which you seem intent on ignoring. Smile

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.