Market Discussions

first off all I´d invest in pargraph´s they are heavily underated these days.

oh and yea, investing minerals right now is probably a rather bad idea.

Well minerals could go up, while the minerals/m^3 of nullsec ore is going up, increasing isotope prices may cause enough miners to harvest ice that there is still a net reduction in mineral supply. Very speculative, but not illogical.

If Ice prices go up high enough, 0.0 miners start mining ice instead of ore. If they do that, the increased minerals in the changed 0.0 ore wont actually result in more minerals entering the market. You would also see more miners chasing the despawning highsec ice, rather then mining ore. Whether Ice gets high enough that it drives up ore prices with it is speculative, but entirely possible.

I wouldn't invest in minerals right now myself, just saying I can understand a thought process that would lead someone to, and that its not crazy.

Actually, totally illogical!

Ice harvester duration will be cut in half. So, twice as much ice per unit of time spent harvesting ice.

The cap on ice will be availability. The anoms will get mined out quickly, they players will have to wait 4 hours for it to respawn. And what are they going to be doing in that extra wait time? Yeah, probably a lot of them are going to switch ships and go mineral mining.


So, we'll need half as many ice mining man hours to produce the same amount of ice... unless you assume all those miners are going to be sitting around doing nothing for 4 hours waiting for respawn.

Me thinks that the MD has gotten a little quiet in the last days.

... the speculators are afoot

yk

The other thing to consider is the reason behind CCP increasing the low end minerals in 0.0 ores: They want people to be building more stuff in 0.0 rather than having to take everything to high sec.

If that does actually happen then you might see some of the high-end ores becoming a little more scarce in high sec.

In either case, low-ends look certain to decrease in price.


disclaimer: No I haven't invested off the back of this, it's waaaay too speculative. I'm mostly just interested to see what happens :)

Same here.
Null Sec is still a NAP train. I see no new demand and supply without demand is just manipulation.

Yes... sort of. Minerals probably aren't going to fall as far as people think they are, though. We'll see trit at 4ish, pyerite at 8, but we're not going back to 3 isk/unit trit and 5 isk/unit pyerite. If you figure 4/unit for trit, 8/unit for pyerite, 35 for mex and 90 for isogen, and then just because say that nocx goes to 600, zyd to 700 and megacyte to 2000, a Maelstrom still costs 140m to build, and it's the cheap one. An abaddon is 187m, a hyperion is 181m, and a rokh is 151m.

For the purposes of tiericide, then, it's an "it depends on what they do." If they go ahead and equalize all the prices up near even what a maelstrom costs, that's a big leap in build cost for the tier 1 battleships - at the current mineral prices, those cost around 77m on the low end (domi and geddon) and 87-90m on the high end (scorp and typhoon). So, build cost increasing to the price of a maelstrom is a pretty big jump even with deflated mineral prices, much less if they do something like average the tier 3 prices and increase everything up to that (as well as balancing the tier 3s too). So basically, if they do "good things" for battleship mineral changes, everyone who is blindly panicking and dumping minerals right now is giving anyone else who hasn't bought minerals yet a good deal. We'll find out next week, though... CCP claims new stuff will be up on SiSi then.

e: For the record, I do have 200b isk worth of Tier 1 BS in my hanger, so that should tell you what I think in terms of the safety of the bet. I'm confident that I will at least not lose money.

Another factor to consider on long term mineral prices, by the way, is that right now, it's not worth building any battlecruiser that isn't an Attack battlecruiser - the formerly tier 1 and tier 2 are still under build cost, though with falling prices they're getting close. Many cruisers are still under build cost as well. So what we're seeing right now is also a factor of lessened demand for minerals as a result of that, probably by 10-15% or so. As minerals continue to fall post-odyssey, though, we'll see that demand come back into play.

Fozzie said something interesting on the GD.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=230660&p=4



So right now 98.4% of all ice is mined in hisec with 85% of that ice ending up in LowSec, NullSec, and WH POSs. After the patch, roughly 80% (rather tan 98.4%) of ice will be mined in high sec.,

Am I right to think that the change only represents a 18% decrease in the amount of hi-sec supply. The major low-sec/null sec power blocks will need to mine approximately 20% more than pre-patch to meet the demand. So the prices change long term will likely not produce so much of a supply/demand mismatch.

That being said, if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

yk