Intergalactic Summit

I wonder, my dear Heathens,

Will this tentative peace on Caldari Prime hold for long?

If it should hold and an amicable peace be attained, the State Protectorate and FDU shall certainly find their justifications for hostilities more awkward than before, yes? Fighting over that planet was the cause celebre keeping the war-mill going.

Heth cannot remain in power so long as the State does not contest the planet. They will retake it, or they will not and he will be removed or die of 'natural causes' soon thereafter.

Perhaps both factions will return to a 'cold war' posture and lick their respective wounds for a time.

Perhaps we will again collectively turn our attention to the Matari and their wars of aggression? Will the FDU and the State Protectorate be eager to assist their allies and their conflicts in foreign regions?

Interesting days ahead. Or not, I suppose we shall see.

What say you?

I for one would be more than willing to assist my Minmatar brethren in their fight to free those subjugated by Amarrian slavery.

Speaking entirely personally, I would have to take a long and hard look at remaining part of the CEWPA war. There are signs that other groups are undergoing the same sort of examination of their priorities in the light of this enormous change to the sea state of cluster politics.

You're right that such a dramatic reappraisal of my duty and my life is a little frightening, but I'm sure that there is work for a pilot out there. For example, there is Black Rise to free and defend. There are more pirates in the CEWPA arena than there are FDU forces - and they need to be put in place.

Ironic that you would call someone heathen, being yourself a heretic. And the worst kind, by the way. But lets leave that for another moment.

As for your question, my personal opinion on the matter is that things are too full of mud now to know. One of the first lessons they teach you in sociology or politology subjects is that you can never predict the future, specially without clear, long-term processes (like demography, and even then only to some extent). This is clearly not a long-term process, and definitely not a clear one either, with too many things going on in the middle. So there's no way of telling out how it'll go yet. But I do see two clear ley-lines where the conflict will move through.

-On one hand, we have the internal instability of the State. With Tibus Heth pushed further into the corner, and civil unrest growing not only among pod pilots but general populace, the Caldari are on the brink of change. Where to? Unknown yet, but learly the State can either leave Heth behind and return to how it was, or evolve into a more centralized form of government, maybe along authoritarian lines.

-On the other, the relations with the Federation. The Gallente are taking a stronger stance, and making their points with less fear of using all means necessary, as the attack on the Shiigeru shows. The reaction to this will depend on the capacity of the State to live up to the new risks the Federation is becoming, which in turn will depend on their corporations and their government's transformations.

So, as things stand, too many pieces are currently moving, and in unpredictable directions. It's impossible to know where all will be when the dust settles.

Apparently some people are not learning.

Pointless as long as it remains in the frame of the Proxy War.

Breaching Yulai Convention if not.

Why does everyone assume the fall of one planet will change the face of the war, or end it? This war is far larger then Caldari Prime. While retaking it would be a great victory for the State, its loss will not stop the war effort.

I'll be honest, participation in the 'Forever War' is of limited interest to me if the wider war between the State and Federation cools down. I also find it hard to muster the enthusiasm to go and fight for our gallant allies in the Empire, having some sympathy for the plight of the Matari peoples and their efforts to stand on their own two feet.

With the matter of Caldari Prime settled, there's just the sovreignty of Black Rise to fight for. Under the current rules of engagement that's not a war that can ever be truly won or lost and the battle sages say that "If fighting will bring victory, then prepare for battle." The matching statement to that is that it is folly to fight if doing so doesn't contribute to victory.

Astute analysis.

Come to think of it there was a thread on that very non-high ground earlier today!

You make it sound as if I could have bought beachfront property there at any time and just couldn't be bothered.