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Market Manipulation - What are the limits

Author
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#1 - 2013-03-08 20:26:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Wyke Mossari
In another thread I've been ( accused / credited ) with manipulating a specific market. We seen others have been accused of manipulating other markets over a long time. This thread isn't about those specifically but aimed at starting a discussion to explore the limits of market manipulation.

Do you think it would be possible to manipulate a market upwards or downwards by 100%, 500%, for how long?

How long can a manipulation be maintained, days, weeks, indefinitely?

How do you go about it?

Could a market be manipulated a transparently in full spot light of MD?

What is possible?

What is impossible?

Perhaps we could try a challenge, purely for ego and reputation and MD elite recognition for the most outrageous manipulation!
Alex Grison
Grison Universal
#2 - 2013-03-08 20:44:27 UTC
Wyke Mossari wrote:

In another thread I've been ( acussed / credited ) with manipulating a specific market. Over time others have been accused of manipulating other markets. This thread isn't about those specifically but aimed to start inga discussion to explore the limits of market manipulation. Do you think it would be possible to manipulate a market upwards or downwards by 100%, 500%, for how long ? a few days, weeks, indefinitely?

Could we manipulate a market transparently in full spot light of MD?

What is possible?
What is impossible?

Perhaps we could try a challenge, purely for ego and reputation and MD elite recognition for the most outrageous manipulation!




You can manipulate a market as long as you can throw money at it. Or get money thrown at it.

You cannot truly control a market. as that would require you to control the source of the item.

For example. If you and only you had control over when asteroid belts respawn, then you would have control over the mineral market.

yes

Vera Algaert
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2013-03-08 21:10:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Vera Algaert
tale a look at c-type adaptive nano platings for the past 3-4 months to see what is possible.

very popular modules that are used in many pvp fittings (as they can replace a t2 EANM in performance without having its CPU footprint), no easy substitutes (t2 ANPs are significantly worse, A/B-types are a lot more expensive), limited supply and a low starting price -> price went from <20m to 60m and so far there are no signs of the manipulation breaking down.

I guess eventually fittings will be adapted to either use a t2 ANP (but that's a very painful decision to make) or use faction EANMs which provide better performance at a similar pricepoint (if CPU allows them but doesn't allow t2 EANMs) but for now they are still used widely in personal and doctrine fittings.

.

Boshisk
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#4 - 2013-03-08 21:30:40 UTC
I do slight "manipulation" every now and then when I spot a chance for it, like just buying out a few cheap mods and then putting them back on the market with a slight mark up. Tried it large scale as well just to see if I could push up a price on a mod up for several days or long enough to sell my stock for a profit, took a lot of updating and babysitting and in the end gave me only a slight profit.

But here's what I've come up with during my experiments:

-Stuff you can manufacture easily is bad for manipulation but can be done small scale. If you raise the price too much, you'll get a lot of people starting manufacturing runs on it, so expect to sell your stock before people are able to notice the price increase - start their manufacturing - dump their **** on the market.

- Manipulation on deadspace mods etc lootstuff is pretty profitable but you need to keep checking on them and buy out the competition that undercut you too hard and commit to it.

- Never focus on just one item when manipulating, If someone happens to have a huge stock of that stuff and your price dickery just gave them a signal to start selling, then you are now in an everlasting price competition against some null-sec carebear who has a 5x stock compared to you and determined to sell them.

- Mark ups of over 50% attract too much competition and usually buyers will just get an item that is kinda similar if they can and you won't be able to move your overpriced items too well, so would only do manipulation with "Best in slot" items so that the alternative to that item is worse so at least people with no isk problems will buy your overpriced **** since they want the best and they want it now.

- High value items of 500mil+ have less chance of people keeping a stock of them hidden somewhere so in that sense they are a little more safer for manipulation.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#5 - 2013-03-08 22:29:32 UTC
Wyke Mossari wrote:
Could a market be manipulated a transparently in full spot light of MD?


Yes.

Pirate

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#6 - 2013-03-08 22:55:16 UTC
that's like asking if herding can be done in full view of the sheep
Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#7 - 2013-03-08 23:07:42 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
that's like asking if herding can be done in full view of the sheep


Baaaahhhhhh-telcruiser

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#8 - 2013-03-09 00:07:23 UTC
Candy Oshea wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
that's like asking if herding can be done in full view of the sheep


Baaaahhhhhh-telcruiser


Literally laughed out loud at something on MD for the first time since I can't remember when.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal

Alex Grison
Grison Universal
#9 - 2013-03-09 00:19:01 UTC
Varius Xeral wrote:
Candy Oshea wrote:
EvilweaselSA wrote:
that's like asking if herding can be done in full view of the sheep


Baaaahhhhhh-telcruiser


Literally laughed out loud at something on MD for the first time since I can't remember when.


TRY AGAIN

yes

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#10 - 2013-03-09 01:38:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
mynnna wrote:
Wyke Mossari wrote:
Could a market be manipulated a transparently in full spot light of MD?


Yes.

Pirate


On GD too. I made a killing on Mack stuff thanks to simple usage of some easily manipulated spam posters who would perma-bump my posts in there. My best allies over there are T. and R. P. Twisted
awwcool Bayn
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2013-03-09 01:59:18 UTC
Anything in EVE is possible, The only thing that limits you is how determined you are Big smile
Arronicus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#12 - 2013-03-09 02:34:36 UTC
pliz for stop manipulate jita, OP, price change 2 many. I cannot' buy the ships.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#13 - 2013-03-09 05:28:18 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
mynnna wrote:
Wyke Mossari wrote:
Could a market be manipulated a transparently in full spot light of MD?


Yes.

Pirate


On GD too. I made a killing on Mack stuff thanks to simple usage of some easily manipulated spam posters who would perma-bump my posts in there. My best allies over there are T. and R. P. Twisted


Yeah, claiming that profit from patch speculation on ships whose build prices were being massively increased was caused (or affected) by forum posting. Roll



@OP, OTEC and the Ice Interdictions are examples of large scale market manipulation that was publicly announced and highly successful.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#14 - 2013-03-09 08:08:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
RubyPorto wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
mynnna wrote:
Wyke Mossari wrote:
Could a market be manipulated a transparently in full spot light of MD?


Yes.

Pirate


On GD too. I made a killing on Mack stuff thanks to simple usage of some easily manipulated spam posters who would perma-bump my posts in there. My best allies over there are T. and R. P. Twisted


Yeah, claiming that profit from patch speculation on ships whose build prices were being massively increased was caused (or affected) by forum posting. Roll


No, as I wrote I did not even do the "patch speculation", I finished taking profit before that and exclusively on the "Mack will be king" talks. I don't like tying tens of billions for months so I went for another route: ship sale before the patch with a markup similar to what the others would get after months of wait plus mass invented BPC sales at about 40% markup over the usual.

But hey, keep not understanding who does what and why, as I said you are of great help to whoever knows to pull your levers (and it's not just me Pirate). Ah, mine is actually an act of kindness to you, to make you (and not just you) understand you are being influenced by people less kind than me that won't tell you about their games.

Edit: as all the well made manipulations, this was done "with the trend" (that is I knew that Macks would become king for real), this makes those manips easy and cheap to pull off as they just amplify something already going on.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#15 - 2013-03-09 08:42:11 UTC
Bulk producable items that aren't in high demand but are exploded in PVP can be manipulated well in the short term.

I made decent returns once buying all the Small Nosferatu 2's in Dodixie, selling them at a 40% markup, and selling 'bulk lots' at a 25% markup as contracts on a 'gotta clear these, 10% below market, get your calculator and check it isn't a scam' basis.

With more capital I could probably manage the same with higher value mods like t2 webs or even t1 cruisers.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Arronicus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#16 - 2013-03-09 11:14:04 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:


With more capital I could probably manage the same with even t1 cruisers.


Please please please please do this. A few of us can supply you with all the tech 1 cruisers you'd ever need. That, or no matter how much you invested, the price wouldn't rise to even the cost to build... lol.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#17 - 2013-03-09 11:22:40 UTC
Arronicus wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:


With more capital I could probably manage the same with even t1 cruisers.


Please please please please do this. A few of us can supply you with all the tech 1 cruisers you'd ever need. That, or no matter how much you invested, the price wouldn't rise to even the cost to build... lol.



Vexors seem to sell at over mats cost (I'd need to compute it again) but not at an acceptable markup to actually make them.

I've manipulated the price on them up in Dodixie, but not enough to warrant serious investment (buy price 9500k, sell price 10800-11300k, sales volume ~10-20/day). Before my involvement they were readily purchased at 8800-9200k and I've had maybe 150 go through my hands.

Most of the manipulation comes from buying the cheap ones, then linking a particularly spectacular killmail I have from when my solo roaming Vexor came across an AFK Slepnir in a blinged out pod. I link that kill often in Dodi to drive demand up on the Vexor and it works - people that know the Vexor to be buffed see a solo kill of a non-failfit T2 BC and think 'I need some of those'.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Tauranon
Weeesearch
CAStabouts
#18 - 2013-03-09 12:58:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Tauranon
Vera Algaert wrote:
tale a look at c-type adaptive nano platings for the past 3-4 months to see what is possible.

very popular modules that are used in many pvp fittings (as they can replace a t2 EANM in performance without having its CPU footprint), no easy substitutes (t2 ANPs are significantly worse, A/B-types are a lot more expensive), limited supply and a low starting price -> price went from <20m to 60m and so far there are no signs of the manipulation breaking down.



CCP changed the supply of c-type frigate loot table by removing 10-12 ded1 statics per empire and replacing them with exactly 1 ded1 sig per empire. They also drop in hideout escalations, but hideouts don't accept cruisers so a lot of explorers ignore them and like all escalations, they fail to trigger a lot, and they break a lot on the way.

ie you would have to see a change to the signature spawn tables to see that item come down again, and its pushed the a-type up too. I think I still have a couple of pvp 'throns that I'll have to consider removing the item from.
Emma d'Acques
Doomheim
#19 - 2013-03-09 13:01:51 UTC
Alex Grison wrote:


Dude, you owe me a new keyboard...

I'm not totally useless, I can be used as a bad example.

RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#20 - 2013-03-09 18:07:26 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
No, as I wrote I did not even do the "patch speculation", I finished taking profit before that and exclusively on the "Mack will be king" talks. I don't like tying tens of billions for months so I went for another route: ship sale before the patch with a markup similar to what the others would get after months of wait plus mass invented BPC sales at about 40% markup over the usual.


Yeah, I did the exact same thing with BCs before the 1.1 patch. Built them and sold them before the patch. It still counts as patch speculation even if you're not the one speculating.

Has nothing to do with the forums, and everything to do with expected market behavior before that kind of patch.


Of course, you're free to keep claiming that profits from selling Mackinaws before their build costs skyrocketed were a result of your clever manipulation.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

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