Market Discussions

holy lawl your coinflip trading section boils down to "you lose money based on trading fees"

that is it

there is nothing else in there whatsoever the entire thing is just trading fees

great reading. thanks

one question: "zero sum game". Your description is clear. But why it's name "zero sum game"?

Let's imagine a cake. Regardless of how many try take a slice it's still this cake. Some will get the slice, some wont. Some will get a bigger slice some will get smaller, some will win and some will lose but in the end we still have that one cake.

In markets for every single transaction (there can easily be 100,000 a day on some markets) there is a winner and a loser.

EvE in this and many other regards is less harsh than RL. Even if you buy bad (but not too bad) you can still resell or manufacture for a smaller profit. In RL the margins are razor thin (usually one "tick", that is 0.01 ISK) and wins / losses are amplified by 5-10-50 and even 100 by a feature callled leverage.

Imagine losing in EvE if the RL mechanisms were in place:

- PLEX spread would be 0.01 ISK (you wish, eh? ).

- You buy a PLEX at 500M but after 5 minutes it drops to 498M. In EvE you just lost 2M. In RL you'd just have lost 2 * 50 = 100M.
Yes, that's quite a cold, harsh universe we got out there .

Not often enough.

Hmm looks like i got something to read at work tomorrow. Hopefully i learn something that can make me better trader. Yes im still noob when it comes to mastering the market...

You could play some games if you wanted. If you don't, it's just easier.




Here I'll tell you what I always tell to Mynna.

You are fundamentally right on two sides:

As one RL trader I talked with today told me when I tried describing this thing, "ah, so you are using a multi-frame, trend following method". While it's not exact (i.e. it lags very little vs a trend following system), its effect is basically that. Therefore it's indeed a step behind every step of the way.
Moreover it WILL perform worse than a perfectly executed Mynna fundamental analysis (see we talk enough about these things) and it WILL perform worse than a well done manipulation.

So you see, I am not deluded about this stuff, I know it's limits fairly well.

So why do I do it?
- Because I wanted to see if EvE markets behave simliar than the RL ones. Hence my main analysis thread is called "Experiment". Imagine it being a thesis. It's a testament to the realism of EvE markets, there had to be someone proving that the CCP claims of "realistic markets" were true.

- Because it does not require 10 hours a month, maybe 1.

- Because I don't care about learning the EvE markets driving factors enough (besides some I have a personal interest of). I know Mynna and probably you too get all happy when you find just another profitable "hidden gem". I don't take the same feeling for some reason so I lack of the motivation to do your work. You are into the game and live for your alliance goals, to me EvE is a trading playground, where I can play with "Demo money" but with a game setting which I find fun.

- Due to the above, I don't even try amassing insane wealth (I don't even know if my NAV got to so little as 200B so far, it's just... irrelevant to me) nor I analyze the markets a lot. I am truly "casual", I am not commited into moving markets or inventing the new Forex trick.
I log in, some days I get the urge to trade, I slap down 2-3 quick charts, place 2-3 buy orders and I am done maybe for 3 months till the next urge. I cannot be arsed pouring in effort.
Like me, there are others. Like me they started with "The Slow Sell System for Lazy Marketeers" just to show you the kind of mindset involved.
People who don't care to get e-rich quick, who don't have a "mission".
I am fairly sure we are closer mindset to those who put zillions on Grendell's 2% bonds than hyperactive station traders.

- Last but not least, to me this playground is training for RL trading and you know the average Joe is not going to RL trade by manipulating markets but by learning a "normal" trading method so I just do it.




You have a rosy vision of what happens in RL finance. LIBOR manipulation anyone? Does that ring you a bell?
Buying 200 oil tankers and keeping them parked for months in a bay to make price rise? Done that. It's not like blowing them up but see it almost gets to your example.
Hoard up cereals and similar to make prices rise, while seeing African childrens DIE because of it?
Have a nation create a tax to raise $5 billion and making that tax paid by the poor and pensioners to bail out a completely corrupt bank? Done, the money is going to be given to that bank in the next month or so.
In my nation there is more than 1 small industry enterpreneur suiciding PER DAY because banks are playing games with them, taking their homes and sheds: the work of a lifetime gone in a day.

Pretty please don't EVER compare yourselves with the vile bas****ds literally ruining lives when not downright killing people in RL.

I'll leave this here. The person who years ago predicted and wrote in her infamous Black Book how her financial invention would bring revolts and death in Northen Africa now is at work again.

This seems to boil down to two main kinds of EVE finance person. Either you are the type that maybe plays solo, probably just does margin/spec and some light manipulation and maybe some arbitrage... OR you are someone that does all that as a smaller part of a deeper game that adds on force, and breaking mechanics, and purposely moving parts of the economy to further some other goal.

My point is, if you are someone that can understand all the latter parts, why not do those too. Leave the analysis for those that are incapable of playing the deeper game for whatever reason, ISK/knowledge/community.

EVE has few enough people in it playing the meta finance game at all. That is where the all the really fun is.

Thanks to the feedback I received, I have added a much more newbie friendly couple of sections before the "though meat" that made the previous iteration.

Have a nice reading!

It's traders (using delivery contracts) that can forcibly keep commodities stocked out of reach to make certain markets cornered and cause the understandable consequences.

Just to give a little idea, those wars in North Africa come from an increase in certain base foods price by 4% or so. Not 40%, just 4. This immediately caused a feeding alimentation shortage, populations started starving while they requests for help were totally ignored by their dictators / "kings" or whatever you want to call those guys who steal billions from their poor nation and fill a Switzerland cyphered account registered to their family.

About trading, diamonds are traded and actually "blood diamonds" are those also used in speculation. They come from war zones, in wars also started / fueled / paid by certain nice companies like De Beers.

I am sad to say that you may apply forceful control and ships explosions but the "main concepts" of screwing up the next guy / population with no possible retaliation are already an invented reality.

Believe me, I wish I was wrong and this was just an EvE feature. Sure an assault rifle sounds less "sci-fi" than a spaceship but it kills just fine.

My Antivirus software alarmed on the 'BabyPips' website that you linked on the first page.

yk