These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
123Next page
 

[speculative] Isogen prices to continue rising

Author
poof312
Kenshin Industries.
Kenshin Shogunate.
#1 - 2012-11-26 10:24:33 UTC
Omber is still the least profitable hi-sec ore to be mined ATM. Nobody is mining it unless literally everything else in the belt is gone.

With production minimal, prices have risen significantly over the last 2 months, from 100 isk to 150.

Links to charts for the lazy:

Omber's lack of profitability: http://ore.cerlestes.de/index.html#site:ore

Isogen prices: http://ore.cerlestes.de/index.html#site:trend

With miners still not reacting to these price changes, the price will only continue to rise as stockpiles diminish, until omber is finally more profitable than veldspar to mine again. Then, as a knee-jerk reaction, miners will begin to target omber again.

But in the lag time between miners reacting and getting minerals to market, supply will still fail to meet demand for a while as the miners try to catch up. There will be a short spike in isogen prices during this time.

Timing will be tricky, but assuming pye and trit hold at least somewhat steady, I would guess that this spike would top out at 200 or so at the most.

Your thoughts?
enterprisePSI
#2 - 2012-11-26 10:32:27 UTC
My thoughts to yours.

The tears of the many, outweigh the tears of the few. Or the one. enterprise-psi©

Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#3 - 2012-11-26 11:06:22 UTC


I'm guessing most Isogen does not comes from Omber. Look at the top ore : Ore Income

Based on my ore pricing model and current Nocxium prices, Isogen could break the 260 ISK mark.



Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#4 - 2012-11-26 11:32:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
poof312 wrote:


Timing will be tricky, but assuming pye and trit hold at least somewhat steady, I would guess that this spike would top out at 200 or so at the most.

Your thoughts?


My thoughts are: trading is like planning a trip. You won't end well if you plan buying tickets etc. 1 hour before leaving home and these super-late analyses are a reaction of what in my land we call: "ox people".

Somebody "wakes up" late and finds the obvious, then a storm of Lemmings follows. Typical of retail shareholders debacles.

Late comers get trapped and killed by the market. They are those who buy extra late, extra high and right before a crash and so on.

Now, I don't say it's extra late to "get in" into Isogen (I have not checked the chart at all, I am out at this point) but your very "timing will be tricky" shows that you understand it's going to be hard to get in at this point.

Therefore, make sure you know what you are doing before substantially committing into it.




Finally, I'll reveal some grand coveted miners secrets:

AFK is everything, AFK is all.


1) The barges buffed huge cargo has squashed bots. Ships can now stay stuck on ice for 45 minutes with no intervention, no need to bot them since they are already "auto".

2) This leads to a much lower preference by miners for hi sec ores. Somewhat camped in this season, hi sec roids last few minutes and this greatly clashes against point 1 advantages.

3) Pyroxeres are huge yet they keeè volume for minimal Nocx contents and those roids last 2 laser cycles. Plus they are only in some empires => miners are not so hot on more micromanagement vs their AFK barges.

4) Omber roids are far from being everywhere and they are tiny. Once again, not really worth the effort. There are anyway nicer, smarter alternatives but they are also split against other direct sinks.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#5 - 2012-11-26 20:27:06 UTC
190 or so was the break-point where Omber became more valuable than other non-Kernite ores last time I checked the numbers, but since Kernite is so much more valuable people would mine that first, given the choice. There are also real world factors like what VV pointed out.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#6 - 2012-11-26 23:48:28 UTC
http://i.imgur.com/56Ejk.png

"lol"

I wonder if someone read this thread or if it merely looked ripe for a hit.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Nerdy McButtHurt Trald
Doomheim
#7 - 2012-11-27 00:33:37 UTC
CCP must be very happy. The low sec ore's are now the most valuable.

Risk vs reward!
poof312
Kenshin Industries.
Kenshin Shogunate.
#8 - 2012-11-27 04:26:28 UTC
corestwo wrote:
http://i.imgur.com/56Ejk.png

"lol"

I wonder if someone read this thread or if it merely looked ripe for a hit.


I would hope that whoever f'ed up jita like that did so after making their own considerations... I am by no means an expert economist or investor.
poof312
Kenshin Industries.
Kenshin Shogunate.
#9 - 2012-11-27 04:29:28 UTC
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald wrote:
CCP must be very happy. The low sec ore's are now the most valuable.

Risk vs reward!


It's funny though. The worst ores per m^3 are gneiss and spodumain, exclusive to 0.0.

But the best ones are Mercroxit, Hedbergite, and Arkonor, which are alo 0.0 / lowsec.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#10 - 2012-11-27 06:28:47 UTC
poof312 wrote:
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald wrote:
CCP must be very happy. The low sec ore's are now the most valuable.

Risk vs reward!


It's funny though. The worst ores per m^3 are gneiss and spodumain, exclusive to 0.0.

But the best ones are Mercroxit, Hedbergite, and Arkonor, which are alo 0.0 / lowsec.


That's been the case for a very long time. Gneiss and Spod are reliant on expensive high ends to have value. Back before grav sites and the drone regions, they were right where you'd expect them to be, forming the "low end" of nullsec ores, but still more valuable than anything else on their own.

Not so much anymore, clearly.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Dave stark
#11 - 2012-11-27 17:45:29 UTC
let's see, omber, not found in caldari high sec last time i checked. there's no way i'm moving more than 5 jumps from jita to mine. cost of moving my minerals to jita will outstrip the profit that omber may give me.
not to mention it'll be tough for omber to beat kernite unless the other minerals start dropping.

besides, high sec belts don't contain enough of one specific ore to bother cherry picking, you're far better off just stripping the entire belt regardless of it's composition. the price range of a jetcan of any given high sec ore is ~1.5m. it's hardly worth even bothering to check prices these days, better off just spending the time stripping the belt.


corestwo wrote:
stuff

is it safe to assume you had a hand in that article that went up on the mittani today? it was a nice read.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#12 - 2012-11-27 19:50:11 UTC
Dave stark wrote:

corestwo wrote:
stuff

is it safe to assume you had a hand in that article that went up on the mittani today? it was a nice read.

I am mynnna. So, yes, you could say I had a hand in it. And thank you.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#13 - 2012-11-27 23:02:32 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Dave stark wrote:

corestwo wrote:
stuff

is it safe to assume you had a hand in that article that went up on the mittani today? it was a nice read.

I am mynnna. So, yes, you could say I had a hand in it. And thank you.


I always wondered, why do you post and chat (in game) with C2 when you could use such a glorious main?
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#14 - 2012-11-27 23:09:06 UTC
Ingame, because this character is the one I'm most frequently logged into. On the forums, because at one point I preferred to keep the identities semi-separate. Not so much the case anymore, but I keep going with it anyway. I'd hate to give up all my likes. Roll

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Sisohiv
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#15 - 2012-11-28 05:43:22 UTC
Omber is found everywhere. It's the jumping off point for all Grav Plex in high sec. I'd still say most Isogen mined is gotten from Kernite so Isogen is married to Mex in a funky way. mex drops, Kernite becomes less appealing, Isogen spikes.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#16 - 2012-11-28 06:22:53 UTC
Except Mex has been fairly stable around 60-62 since July, but ok thanks for that I guess?

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Sisohiv
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#17 - 2012-11-28 14:10:39 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Except Mex has been fairly stable around 60-62 since July, but ok thanks for that I guess?


Mex is not stable, Mex is flat lined. Add in Bistot as a source of Mex and on that note, I notice nobody is asking why the Null bears aren't on Hedbergite?
Dave stark
#18 - 2012-11-28 14:30:53 UTC
Sisohiv wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Except Mex has been fairly stable around 60-62 since July, but ok thanks for that I guess?


Mex is not stable, Mex is flat lined. Add in Bistot as a source of Mex and on that note, I notice nobody is asking why the Null bears aren't on Hedbergite?


because there's about 300k/jetcan difference in price bwetween hed and ark, and for 300k/can i wouldn't bother wasting a few days training for crystals either.

in high sec, it's more lucrative to just strip a whole belt of everything rather than faff around trying to cherry pick ores. it's pretty much the same with 0.0 grav sites, especially when they respawn after they've been stripped.

also, bistot doesn't produce mex. it produces pyerite. hemorphite produces mex, then again if i'm reading this website correctly plaig produces 50x more mex than hemo, and it's in abundance around jita.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#19 - 2012-11-28 14:55:21 UTC
I have been asked in game to do an Isogen analysis, which I posted here.
Sisohiv
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#20 - 2012-11-28 15:20:17 UTC
Dave stark wrote:
Sisohiv wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Except Mex has been fairly stable around 60-62 since July, but ok thanks for that I guess?


Mex is not stable, Mex is flat lined. Add in Bistot as a source of Mex and on that note, I notice nobody is asking why the Null bears aren't on Hedbergite?


because there's about 300k/jetcan difference in price bwetween hed and ark, and for 300k/can i wouldn't bother wasting a few days training for crystals either.

in high sec, it's more lucrative to just strip a whole belt of everything rather than faff around trying to cherry pick ores. it's pretty much the same with 0.0 grav sites, especially when they respawn after they've been stripped.

also, bistot doesn't produce mex. it produces pyerite. hemorphite produces mex, then again if i'm reading this website correctly plaig produces 50x more mex than hemo, and it's in abundance around jita.



We still aren't thinking of miners as players with fixed play time, say 2 hrs a day. We assume they are bots, running 23/7 and just mining what's in front of them. If mining is the 2-3 hr player, what will Isogen need to be at to make Hed and Omber the ore people look for when the scanner cycle is up?
123Next page