These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

EVE General Discussion

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

The Ore Thief Career

Author
Vaju Enki
Secular Wisdom
#101 - 2012-09-22 15:31:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaju Enki
TharOkha wrote:
Vaju Enki wrote:

You don't see any problem with this approach? Mining haulers... Maybe if CCP removed 99,9% of the asteroids belts in the game and made you search/travel for 7 hour to mine some ore you would understand the problem.



I understand your problem perfectly. You are crying that they destroyed your "proffesion". Im just saying, that eve has plenty of other activities, than stealing stuff from noobs and miners. You know "Eve is hard place", adapt or survive.If you cannot find any other interesting activities in eve maybe its time for you to consider quit eve and switch to another, easier game... like WoW for example.

Btw you can still steal ore from miners. Take your mining barge and mine the asteroid they mine, before they do it.


If a patch "removed" mining from the game and someone said to you "eve has plenty of other activities" and if you don't like it 'play theme park game", what you say to that person?

I enjoy sandbox mmo's, my favorite game ever is UO (before Trammel), i don't like theme park games. EvE Is the last true old school sandbox mmo. It's sad to see it go the Trammel way.

The Tears Must Flow

Captain Stupid
Zeta Reticuli Blackpill Alliance
Absolute Glory
#102 - 2012-09-22 15:33:31 UTC
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Shouldn't this be in the "Stupid Questions" thread?



I had a thread for stupid questions, but can't find it. Eve forum search is ******** you see.


TharOkha
0asis Group
#103 - 2012-09-22 15:47:12 UTC  |  Edited by: TharOkha
Vaju Enki wrote:

If a patch "removed" mining from the game and someone said to you "eve has plenty of other activities" and if you don't like it 'play theme park game", what you say to that person?


Your comparision is just stupid and perfectly follows rules of fallacy. Mining is a profesion implemented in eve. Your "profesional can stealing" is just your point of view that it is proffesion.

For example I like orbiting statues. now if ccp remove those statues, should i cry on formus that CCP destroyed my" profesional statue orbiting"? Should any change in the EvE be the reason for crying that it destroyed "LoL proffesion" no matter how stupid? (they retextured vindicator. Now i cannot hide in blackness of space, they removed my "profesional hiding career")
Vaju Enki
Secular Wisdom
#104 - 2012-09-22 16:08:46 UTC
TharOkha wrote:
Vaju Enki wrote:

If a patch "removed" mining from the game and someone said to you "eve has plenty of other activities" and if you don't like it 'play theme park game", what you say to that person?


Your comparision is just stupid and perfectly follows rules of fallacy. Mining is a profesion implemented in eve. Your "profesional can stealing" is just your point of view that it is proffesion.

For example I like orbiting statues. now if ccp remove those statues, should i cry on formus that CCP destroyed my" profesional statue orbiting"? Should any change in the EvE be the reason for crying that it destroyed "LoL proffesion" no matter how stupid? (they retextured vindicator. Now i cannot hide in blackness of space, they removed my "profesional hiding career")


And your argument is Bullshit. Ore Theft has been a profession since the game started, it always been hand in hand with Mining.

The Tears Must Flow

TharOkha
0asis Group
#105 - 2012-09-22 16:18:09 UTC  |  Edited by: TharOkha
Vaju Enki wrote:

And your argument is Bullshit. Ore Theft has been a profession since the game started, it always been hand in hand with Mining.


And im repeating to you that they didnt removed it. They just make it harder for you.
Vaju Enki
Secular Wisdom
#106 - 2012-09-22 16:25:05 UTC
TharOkha wrote:
Vaju Enki wrote:

And your argument is Bullshit. Ore Theft has been a profession since the game started, it always been hand in hand with Mining.


And im repeating to you that they didnt removed it. They just make it harder for you.


I also repeat the that if CCP removed 99,9% of the asteroids belts in the game and made you search/travel for 7 hour to mine some ore, they wouldn't have removed mining from the game, just made it harder for you.

The Tears Must Flow

TharOkha
0asis Group
#107 - 2012-09-22 16:46:25 UTC
Vaju Enki wrote:
I also repeat the that if CCP removed 99,9% of the asteroids belts in the game and made you search/travel for 7 hour to mine some ore, they wouldn't have removed mining from the game, just made it harder for you.


i give up Roll
Belitch
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#108 - 2012-09-22 18:08:37 UTC
Some people still jet can mine. With a hulk convert alt set up I normally have around 1-7 cans floating at any one time. Now is this smart not really but its the only way to mine when you can fill a can in 16min (two ships mind you). The orca is only use-full if your supporting more then 4 hulks.


Now : I say this once : They did not remove the ability to jet-can mine from ships. Use d scan to look for cargo containers its not hard to see whats going on...if your flying to each belt your doing it wrong.
You complain because the mining ships were part of the first wave of re-balances. Wait until all the ships have been done before complaining 2 much.

They didn't remove jet-canning, come find me you can skim my profits here for a bit, but bring some back up I don't do this unarmed.

What are your losses like, we have baited ships before using jet-caning as bait?

Its good to know not many people look for us, but we do exist just because I'm better at hiding then you are at finding : Is that reason to start a post on the forums. You can steal all the ore you can carry out of my field when all my backups dead, keep looking I'm out there, but I'm rarely alone anymore. Twisted
Pipa Porto
#109 - 2012-09-22 21:28:18 UTC
malcovas Henderson wrote:
I think this is where you go wrong. Risk has the "potential". in other words you may or may not lose. Ganking, you 100% lose your ship, so no . You don't risk your ship, by ganking. it's already lost once you start the gank.


So you're saying that Russian Roulette with 6 chambers full is has a lower risk than Russian Roulette with only one chamber full? Good to know.

Risk and Uncertainty are not the same thing, no matter how much you want them to be.

Quote:
All ships undocking is a risk of losing the ship. So again the arguement is flawed there. A drake undocking is at risk of being lost but the risk is. How did you say it? " his risk level is near zero. " Same as the canflipper or ganker. What is the risk for them to undock? Yep you got it in one. The risk of losing their ship is less than the Miners. when a ganker chooses to gank. He has not risked losing his ship. he has infact sacrificed it to gain some profit. The only risk a ganker has is if the kill is successful.


So Russian Roulette with 6 chambers loaded instead of 1 is less risky. Gotcha.

By the way, Miners sacrifice their ship with some probability X in order to gain some profit. Just because the probability of loss for the ganker is 1 doesn't mean that they don't use the same equation for calculating risk.

Risk and Uncertainty are not the same thing.

Quote:
The guide is very relevent to the OP's complaint of lack of Targets. I'm Telling him one way of finding said Targets. Again the Ganker risks nothing, but wether he makes a profit or not. And if he is ganking Tanked Skiffs in a Veletor, i'll have no sympathy for him.


So you're saying that a significant, across the board EHP buff did not reduce the number of profitable targets? Industrialized ganking is the only thing that has ever provided any significant risk loss to miners who didn't jetcan. Industrialized ganking was obsoleted by CCP's catering to the least competent pilots in EVE.

What significant risk do miners face?
Let's say that a "significant risk" has an expected cost of 2m an hour (a tenth of the risk involved in Suicide ganking). A Mackinaw costs about 250m. Does the average Mackinaw (run with no active protection measures*) survive more or less than 125hrs of mining in HS? If it's more, than Suicide ganking doesn't pose a significant risk. And guess what, it most certainly is more than that. The HS mining fleet is far too vast for the small number of gankers able to gank at a loss to put any kind of significant dent in it.

*Aligning, etc.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Pipa Porto
#110 - 2012-09-22 21:30:39 UTC
TharOkha wrote:
Vaju Enki wrote:

And your argument is Bullshit. Ore Theft has been a profession since the game started, it always been hand in hand with Mining.


And im repeating to you that they didnt removed it. They just make it harder for you.


Tell that to the Mackinaw, which has replaced the Jetcan for Hauler impaired miners.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

malcovas Henderson
THoF
#111 - 2012-09-22 22:22:30 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:

So you're saying that Russian Roulette with 6 chambers full is has a lower risk than Russian Roulette with only one chamber full? Good to know.

Risk and Uncertainty are not the same thing, no matter how much you want them to be.

What cookies are you munching on? Russian roulette with six barrels loaded is not a risk. If you pull the trigger. You eat a bullet.
Risk and Guarenteed are not the same thing. No matter how much you want them to be

Pipa Porto wrote:
So Russian Roulette with 6 chambers loaded instead of 1 is less risky. Gotcha.

Undocking, no matter the ship, carries the same risks. You risk losing your ship. This applies to ANY ship. As it is a "Risk" and not guarenteed, how the hell can you compare it to a fully loaded Russion roulette barrel?

Pipa Porto wrote:
By the way, Miners sacrifice their ship with some probability X in order to gain some profit. Just because the probability of loss for the ganker is 1 doesn't mean that they don't use the same equation for calculating risk.

Oh come now. Are you comparing risk to the time you can keep a ship? seriously? I can undock in a Brand spanking new Drake minutes old and see it go bang in a puff of smoke. Lets take Gankers too. Apparently finding targets is all but impossible. This must mean that it reduces the loss of ships per hour. So using your own arguement. This means ganking is less risky too.

Pipa Porto wrote:
So you're saying that a significant, across the board EHP buff did not reduce the number of profitable targets? Industrialized ganking is the only thing that has ever provided any significant risk loss to miners who didn't jetcan. Industrialized ganking was obsoleted by CCP's catering to the least competent pilots in EVE.

What significant risk do miners face?
Let's say that a "significant risk" has an expected cost of 2m an hour (a tenth of the risk involved in Suicide ganking). A Mackinaw costs about 250m. Does the average Mackinaw (run with no active protection measures*) survive more or less than 125hrs of mining in HS? If it's more, than Suicide ganking doesn't pose a significant risk. And guess what, it most certainly is more than that. The HS mining fleet is far too vast for the small number of gankers able to gank at a loss to put any kind of significant dent in it.

*Aligning, etc.

No, I am not saying a significant increased EHP has not decreased Gankable Targets. I'm saying that the risk to miners has finally been brought closer into line with everyone else.
Again you are argueing Risk over the amount of time you can keep a ship. Ganking for profit as an arguement has been invalidated by CCP stating it was never their intention for it to be profitable.
Pipa Porto
#112 - 2012-09-22 22:32:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Pipa Porto
malcovas Henderson wrote:
Still confusing Risk with Uncertainty.


Risk is, and has always been Probability*Magnitude of Loss. That's why skiing on the edge of a cliff is riskier than skiing nowhere near a cliff, your probability of falling is the same, but the magnitude of your loss is different. Same thing with Russian Roulette with 1 and 5 chambers filled. The Magnitude of loss is the same, but the probability is different.

I like how you're claiming that Russian Roulette with 1 bullet is risky, 3 bullets is riskier, 5 bullets is really risky*, but 6 bullets and it's no longer risky. It's no longer uncertain, but it is most certainly risky.

*Now that I think of it, by your definition of Risk=Uncertainty, the riskiest game of Russian roulette would be with 3 bullets, as 1 and 5 have less uncertainty.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

TharOkha
0asis Group
#113 - 2012-09-24 12:31:30 UTC
Quote:
Tell that to the Mackinaw, which has replaced the Jetcan for Hauler impaired miners.

So? They prefer tank+ore hold(macks) instead of yeld/minute and jetcans (hulks). Miners has finaly evolved. Situation before miner rebalance? Hulk or GTFO. Miners have a choice now. Tank or yeld.
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#114 - 2012-09-24 13:18:55 UTC
Vaju Enki wrote:

Since the patch, i only found 5 guys jetcan mining.

i have never seen 1(!!!) shuttle loaded with PLEXes. They don't exist? Public killmails prove they do.

Try harder instead of whine.

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"

Vanyr Andrard
VacuumTube
#115 - 2012-09-24 17:05:47 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
malcovas Henderson wrote:
Still confusing Risk with Uncertainty.


Risk is, and has always been Probability*Magnitude of Loss. That's why skiing on the edge of a cliff is riskier than skiing nowhere near a cliff, your probability of falling is the same, but the magnitude of your loss is different. Same thing with Russian Roulette with 1 and 5 chambers filled. The Magnitude of loss is the same, but the probability is different.

I like how you're claiming that Russian Roulette with 1 bullet is risky, 3 bullets is riskier, 5 bullets is really risky*, but 6 bullets and it's no longer risky. It's no longer uncertain, but it is most certainly risky.

*Now that I think of it, by your definition of Risk=Uncertainty, the riskiest game of Russian roulette would be with 3 bullets, as 1 and 5 have less uncertainty.



A better quote from Wikipedia would have been: "In statistical decision theory, the risk function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty."

Your function gives the expected value of the loss function, and is one reasonable, simple, definition for the word risk. However, his point, that uncertainty is needed for a situation to be reasonably termed risky, is definitely valid. Applying the loss function to situations without uncertainty still gives the expected value of the loss function, but no reasonable human being could term that 'risk'. That is then simply the 'cost'--and using a framework of a loss function across a probability distribution would then be a ridiculous model, as the domain of such a distibution would be a single point. Russian roulette with a gun in good working order and all chambers loaded isn't russian roulette, it's just suicide.

Most simply put, risk requires a situation where there is uncertainty as to the likelihood of potential undesirable consequences. Where those consequences can be assigned a loss function with monetary values, then one can integrate/sum the loss function to find the expected value(depending on whether the loss function is continuous or discrete), which gives the formula you are using for risk. If the consequences can't be given an agreed-upon monetary value, then your formula is inapplicable. If there is no uncertainty to begin with, then the situation was never 'risk' in the first place, although something looking exactly like your formula would still give the expected value, if the certain outcome of the situation under discussion has an agreed-upon monetary impact. In essence, your argument is equivocal and misleading, and uncertainty is always necessary for a situation to be termed risky. The foundation of this equivocation is that in ganking, there is uncertainty as to the result of the gank, even after concord has been invoked, on the positive side of the ledger, so it's reasonable to construct a probability distribution to model the results. However, the destruction of one's own ship at that point is 100%, save exploit, so if you're only looking at that particular cost, talking about the larger situation's distribution and using the language of risk and uncertainty is a sophisticated form of deception.
Pipa Porto
#116 - 2012-09-24 21:05:52 UTC
Vanyr Andrard wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
malcovas Henderson wrote:
Still confusing Risk with Uncertainty.


Risk is, and has always been Probability*Magnitude of Loss. That's why skiing on the edge of a cliff is riskier than skiing nowhere near a cliff, your probability of falling is the same, but the magnitude of your loss is different. Same thing with Russian Roulette with 1 and 5 chambers filled. The Magnitude of loss is the same, but the probability is different.

I like how you're claiming that Russian Roulette with 1 bullet is risky, 3 bullets is riskier, 5 bullets is really risky*, but 6 bullets and it's no longer risky. It's no longer uncertain, but it is most certainly risky.

*Now that I think of it, by your definition of Risk=Uncertainty, the riskiest game of Russian roulette would be with 3 bullets, as 1 and 5 have less uncertainty.



A better quote from Wikipedia would have been: "In statistical decision theory, the risk function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty."

Your function gives the expected value of the loss function, and is one reasonable, simple, definition for the word risk. However, his point, that uncertainty is needed for a situation to be reasonably termed risky, is definitely valid. Applying the loss function to situations without uncertainty still gives the expected value of the loss function, but no reasonable human being could term that 'risk'. That is then simply the 'cost'--and using a framework of a loss function across a probability distribution would then be a ridiculous model, as the domain of such a distibution would be a single point. Russian roulette with a gun in good working order and all chambers loaded isn't russian roulette, it's just suicide.

Most simply put, risk requires a situation where there is uncertainty as to the likelihood of potential undesirable consequences. Where those consequences can be assigned a loss function with monetary values, then one can integrate/sum the loss function to find the expected value(depending on whether the loss function is continuous or discrete), which gives the formula you are using for risk. If the consequences can't be given an agreed-upon monetary value, then your formula is inapplicable. If there is no uncertainty to begin with, then the situation was never 'risk' in the first place, although something looking exactly like your formula would still give the expected value, if the certain outcome of the situation under discussion has an agreed-upon monetary impact. In essence, your argument is equivocal and misleading, and uncertainty is always necessary for a situation to be termed risky. The foundation of this equivocation is that in ganking, there is uncertainty as to the result of the gank, even after concord has been invoked, on the positive side of the ledger, so it's reasonable to construct a probability distribution to model the results. However, the destruction of one's own ship at that point is 100%, save exploit, so if you're only looking at that particular cost, talking about the larger situation's distribution and using the language of risk and uncertainty is a sophisticated form of deception.



Ok, using that definition, Suicide Gankers run the risk of a Bad drop and the risk of a failed gank. Each one of those costs the ganker. These happen much more often than an individual miner getting ganked (even at the height of HAG).

Miners gain their ore with 100% certainty. Their ships do not get blown up in anything approaching the numbers that would have their Risk (my definition again, because it's the only way to talk about assessing risk without sounding like a gibbering idiot) rise above the Risk Suicide gankers run of Failed ganks alone (using failed ganks only because it makes the rest of the math easier).

A Failed Gank is a loss of ~20m. Say it happens once every 4 hours. That means failed ganks are a 5m ISK/hr risk.
A Suicide Gank is a loss of ~250m. For loss to suicide ganks to be a bigger risk than the risks Suicide gankers face, they would have to happen more often (on average) than once every 50 hours to each Exhumer flying.

We can easily find out how big the mining fleet would have to be for that to be true.

There have been 12,000 Exhumer kills sumbitted to the HAG kb since it started. I'm going to assume the mining fleet is roughly even throughout the day because ::Math::. I'm also going to assume HAG started on May 1st because ::Memory::.
That is 12,000 Exhumer kills in 146 days (or 3,504 hours). That's 3.5 kills per hour across the entire HS mining fleet. For the individual to have an average loss rate of 1/50hrs, there can be no more than ~175 Exhumers mining in HS at any given time.

A more reasonable but still extremely conservative estimate of 1750 (chosen for ease of math) Exhumers mining at any given time gives an average loss rate of 1/500hrs costing the miner 500k ISK/hr in lost Exhumers. Personally, I am absolutely certain that the average number of Exhumers mining in HS is higher than that. Which means that the Risk is even lower.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Vanyr Andrard
VacuumTube
#117 - 2012-09-24 22:06:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Vanyr Andrard
Pipa Porto wrote:

Ok, using that definition, Suicide Gankers run the risk of a Bad drop and the risk of a failed gank. Each one of those costs the ganker. These happen much more often than an individual miner getting ganked (even at the height of HAG).


Yes, that's certainly true. Obviously ganking miners post-barge/exhumer buff is no longer what it was, and gankers now face both a fixed large cost per gank and the risk that the gank will fail.

Pre-buff if you wanted riskfree mining you could just mine in a rock-containing combat mission far from warpin. Post-barge-buff you can still mine with risk, in a wh. It's still all out there, but the 'default' case of afk-ish mining in hisec belts is obviously much different. I'm not sure I see the point of a discussion about how 'risky' that default case is, when the real disagreement seems to be on how risky it SHOULD be. (not to mention procurer vs. retriever vs mack vs hulk making both those discussions multi-case)
Pipa Porto
#118 - 2012-09-24 22:31:16 UTC
Vanyr Andrard wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:

Ok, using that definition, Suicide Gankers run the risk of a Bad drop and the risk of a failed gank. Each one of those costs the ganker. These happen much more often than an individual miner getting ganked (even at the height of HAG).


Yes, that's certainly true. Obviously ganking miners post-barge/exhumer buff is no longer what it was, and gankers now face both a fixed large cost per gank and the risk that the gank will fail.

Pre-buff if you wanted riskfree mining you could just mine in a rock-containing combat mission far from warpin. Post-barge-buff you can still mine with risk, in a wh. It's still all out there, but the 'default' case of afk-ish mining in hisec belts is obviously much different. I'm not sure I see the point of a discussion about how 'risky' that default case is, when the real disagreement seems to be on how risky it SHOULD be. (not to mention procurer vs. retriever vs mack vs hulk making both those discussions multi-case)


Actually, earlier in this page, malcovas was claiming that the Barge buff brought the risk profile of mining closer to that of other activities.* Since we know that the risk profile pre-buff was less than 500k ISK/hr, apparently he believes that all other activities have a lower risk profile.

You can't have a productive discussion on how risky an activity should be when many of the participants are profoundly ignorant of how to calculate that risk (when discussing comparative risks, no other definition but Loss*Probability makes any sense) and what order of magnitude that risk has.

*
malcovas Henderson wrote:
I'm saying that the risk to miners has finally been brought closer into line with everyone else.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Vanyr Andrard
VacuumTube
#119 - 2012-09-24 23:13:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Vanyr Andrard
Pipa Porto wrote:
[
Actually, earlier in this page, malcovas was claiming that the Barge buff brought the risk profile of mining closer to that of other activities.* Since we know that the risk profile pre-buff was less than 500k ISK/hr, apparently he believes that all other activities have a lower risk profile.


It certainly bring it closer to the risk profile of running lvl4 missions, or manufacturing t1 ammo, which is probably what he had in mind as common hisec activities, and that's probably a fairly accurate picture as to how CCP chose to rebalance the barges, actually...that is to say, they compared it to running lvl4's and made it equally risk-free, unless you fly a tankless hulk or an officer-fit tengu, and then it's only a little risky.

"You can't have a productive discussion on how risky an activity should be when many of the participants are profoundly ignorant of how to calculate that risk (when discussing comparative risks, no other definition but Loss*Probability makes any sense) and what order of magnitude that risk has."

'many of the participants are profoundly ignorant'--by which you mean you quoted one person out of context to make him look like a fool, when his perspective was perfectly self-consistent though limited. I'm sure there may have been some person in this thread who thinks that hi-sec pvp is less risky than hisec pve, which is crazy, but that's not the majority view by any means.
Pipa Porto
#120 - 2012-09-24 23:58:02 UTC
Vanyr Andrard wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
[
Actually, earlier in this page, malcovas was claiming that the Barge buff brought the risk profile of mining closer to that of other activities.* Since we know that the risk profile pre-buff was less than 500k ISK/hr, apparently he believes that all other activities have a lower risk profile.


It certainly bring it closer to the risk profile of running lvl4 missions, or manufacturing t1 ammo, which is probably what he had in mind as common hisec activities, and that's probably a fairly accurate picture as to how CCP chose to rebalance the barges, actually...that is to say, they compared it to running lvl4's and made it equally risk-free, unless you fly a tankless hulk or an officer-fit tengu, and then it's only a little risky.


Manufacturing T1 Ammo provides less ISK/hr than mining. Running L4s is actually similar or lower reward, since you can't efficiently multibox to the scale you can mine (as evidenced by the fact people aren't switching from mining to missioning), and missioning in the most efficient missionboat is much riskier than mining in the most efficient mining boat.

Quote:
"You can't have a productive discussion on how risky an activity should be when many of the participants are profoundly ignorant of how to calculate that risk (when discussing comparative risks, no other definition but Loss*Probability makes any sense) and what order of magnitude that risk has."

'many of the participants are profoundly ignorant'--by which you mean you quoted one person out of context to make him look like a fool, when his perspective was perfectly self-consistent though limited. I'm sure there may have been some person in this thread who thinks that hi-sec pvp is less risky than hisec pve, which is crazy, but that's not the majority view by any means.


He claimed that Mining is riskier than ganking, and his posts pretty clearly show that he has no concept of how probability works (that is to say, he demonstrates his assumption that "can happen" equals "will happen" and that the actual probability is irrelevant).

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto