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Statistics Wanted! C4 Site Payouts

Author
Ayeson
State War Academy
Caldari State
#21 - 2012-08-07 19:22:01 UTC
Chucky Mcnutt wrote:
. This means that my previous statement of an average somewhere between 0 and y stands.


Yes, I can do math too, I can guarantee personally that If I am killed I will drop between 0 and Y Nanoribbons as well
Tisisan
Hard Knocks Inc.
Hard Knocks Citizens
#22 - 2012-08-07 19:26:09 UTC
Ayeson wrote:


I can guarantee personally that If I am killed I will drop between 0 and Y Nanoribbons as well



I don't believe you, we need to test this.
Ayeson
State War Academy
Caldari State
#23 - 2012-08-07 19:33:42 UTC
Tisisan wrote:
Ayeson wrote:


I can guarantee personally that If I am killed I will drop between 0 and Y Nanoribbons as well



I don't believe you, we need to test this.


I test it frequently enough, unless im in the prowler or a DD i rarely drop MNR's
Tisisan
Hard Knocks Inc.
Hard Knocks Citizens
#24 - 2012-08-07 19:49:38 UTC
Ayeson wrote:
Tisisan wrote:
Ayeson wrote:


I can guarantee personally that If I am killed I will drop between 0 and Y Nanoribbons as well



I don't believe you, we need to test this.


I test it frequently enough, unless im in the prowler or a DD i rarely drop MNR's


So what you're saying is... I should wait to test it till you're in a prowler.
Ayeson
State War Academy
Caldari State
#25 - 2012-08-07 19:51:37 UTC
Tisisan wrote:
Ayeson wrote:
Tisisan wrote:
Ayeson wrote:


I can guarantee personally that If I am killed I will drop between 0 and Y Nanoribbons as well



I don't believe you, we need to test this.


I test it frequently enough, unless im in the prowler or a DD i rarely drop MNR's


So what you're saying is... I should wait to test it till you're in a prowler.


Possibly
Keith Planck
Hi-Sec Huggers
#26 - 2012-08-08 06:32:27 UTC
Ayeson I understand that such information may scare you, but you can't hide behind false claims.

I've seen 10 nanoribbons drop from 1 frigate wreck.

I've seen 0 nanoribbons drop from an entire site.

However, "Random" simply doesn't exist in something as simple as programing, otherwise wed be seeing sites worth billion of isk.

There IS a formula in place that dictates nanoribbon drop, my guess is that each type of ship has a loot number associated with it. Then theres a loot table with # of nanoribbons assigned to numbers. You roll for loot then add the loot number from the ship type and thats what you get \o/ http://i.imgur.com/TLPIs.png <--- epic graphs



Although I'm posative the formula CCP used is infinity more complicated
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#27 - 2012-08-08 06:58:28 UTC
Keith Planck wrote:
Ayeson I understand that such information may scare you, but you can't hide behind false claims.

I've seen 10 nanoribbons drop from 1 frigate wreck.

I've seen 0 nanoribbons drop from an entire site.

However, "Random" simply doesn't exist in something as simple as programing, otherwise wed be seeing sites worth billion of isk.

There IS a formula in place that dictates nanoribbon drop, my guess is that each type of ship has a loot number associated with it. Then theres a loot table with # of nanoribbons assigned to numbers. You roll for loot then add the loot number from the ship type and thats what you get \o/ http://i.imgur.com/TLPIs.png <--- epic graphs



Although I'm posative the formula CCP used is infinity more complicated


Or infinatly more simple

Take 2 sets of dice, toss them on the floor several hundred times, OK whats your average now buddy?

God the @@@@@@ forum posters are useless...
Keith Planck
Hi-Sec Huggers
#28 - 2012-08-08 07:00:21 UTC
whats @@@@@@@?
Ayeson
State War Academy
Caldari State
#29 - 2012-08-08 07:01:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Ayeson
I'm glad you've seen ribbons drop before, I believe that finding ribbons would probably be the first step in searching for statistics about ribbons.

That being said, claiming you've seen "10 nanoribbons drop from 1 frigate wreck." and then claiming you've seen "0 nanoribbons drop from an entire site." doesn't really support the "It isn't random as ****" hypothesis you had going there.

Nice try?

"There IS a formula in place that dictates nanoribbon drop," <- Well Obviously. It's not like they just have a room full of monkeys and every time a sleeper dies it triggers a ball to fall from a basket, and then the monkey has to pick it up and place it on the right pedesteal, so it can trigger the abacuses to send the start command to the ENIAC machine located in the basement of Big Ben. Which then tells the eve server how many ribbons to drop.

Actually, that might not be that far fetched.

Also: your graph is not based on any data and I reject its relevance from the matter at hand
Keith Planck
Hi-Sec Huggers
#30 - 2012-08-08 07:13:51 UTC
That being said, claiming you've seen "10 nanoribbons drop from 1 frigate wreck." and then claiming you've seen "0 nanoribbons drop from an entire site." doesn't really support the "It isn't random as ****" hypothesis you had going there.
>Actually it does, as you can see in my graph, the random drops are indicative of a negative sloping hyperbola. Having large numbers of ribbons drop ispossible but very unlikely. This type of drop rate would produce an average.

Also: your graph is not based on any data and I reject its relevance from the matter at hand
Actually my graph IS based on data, the data I've picked up so far. No numbers are possible to extrapolate but they do show strong evidence to a negative sloping hyperbola with battleships dropping more nanoribbons more often.



Nice try though ;)
Myz Toyou
Nekkid Inc.
#31 - 2012-08-08 08:35:31 UTC
Your graph is photoshopped, I can see it by the pixels and so it`s invalid.
Please put more effort in your next try to fool the WH community.
Orrelious
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#32 - 2012-08-08 13:13:05 UTC
Question, what are you going to do with this data? Estimate money you MIGHT get? I think you need to focus on actually playing the game instead of ship toasting in the forums where every corp that's worth a damn is starting to gradually hate you.
Chucky Mcnutt
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#33 - 2012-08-08 13:23:06 UTC
Keith Planck wrote:
That being said, claiming you've seen "10 nanoribbons drop from 1 frigate wreck." and then claiming you've seen "0 nanoribbons drop from an entire site." doesn't really support the "It isn't random as ****" hypothesis you had going there.
>Actually it does, as you can see in my graph, the random drops are indicative of a negative sloping hyperbola. Having large numbers of ribbons drop ispossible but very unlikely. This type of drop rate would produce an average.

Also: your graph is not based on any data and I reject its relevance from the matter at hand
Actually my graph IS based on data, the data I've picked up so far. No numbers are possible to extrapolate but they do show strong evidence to a negative sloping hyperbola with battleships dropping more nanoribbons more often.



Nice try though ;)


If your graph is based on data, where are your scale markings?

Nice try though ;)
Ayeson
State War Academy
Caldari State
#34 - 2012-08-08 14:20:47 UTC
Chucky Mcnutt wrote:
Keith Planck wrote:
[u] really really bad backpedaling and trying to defend a graph made in MS Paint

Nice try though ;)


If your graph is based on data, where are your scale markings?

Nice try though ;)


Burned.
Chucky Mcnutt
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#35 - 2012-08-08 14:28:45 UTC
Keith Planck wrote:

Actually my graph IS based on data, the data I've picked up so far. No numbers are possible


not to mention that he directly contradicts himself here.
Jak'at
The Terrifying League Of Dog Fort
Deepwater Hooligans
#36 - 2012-08-15 19:38:41 UTC
Keith Planck is a tool.
Keith Planck
Hi-Sec Huggers
#37 - 2012-08-16 00:43:24 UTC
Chucky Mcnutt wrote:
Ayeson wrote:
Chucky Mcnutt wrote:
yes. Since we know that the number of ships per site is static, and those ships are capable of either dropping or not dropping MNRs, we can postulate that the number of MNRs per site can range from (0 MNRs) * (number of ships) = 0 to (max possible MNRs per ship) * (number of ships) = y MNRs. While this doesn't help us predict the number of MNRs we get per site effectively, it does force there to be a long-term average number of MNRs per site somewhere between 0 and y.

http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/rvmnvar.htm


What if there isnt a max possible MNR's/ship...because that's random


The fact that ships are indeed hard-coded to only drop a given number of MNRs is irrelevant. Even if we assume that a ship can drop a completly random number of MNRs - for easy math, we'll say into the billions of MNRs, we'd have an interesting outcome. In the event that someone actually salvaged a legit drop of so many MNRs, the market value would plummet to nothing. So we see that CCP has an incentive to not allow so many MNRs per site in the economic realm, completely discounting the fact that it's simply easier to code a hard limit in terms of random number generation.

However, if we throw that aside and say that they did allow infinite MNR drops per site or per ship, we would still see a long term average, regardless of how large that average might be. Since ships aren't capable of dropping negative MNRs, the average will always be greater than zero. This means that my previous statement of an average somewhere between 0 and y stands.



Example:
Battleship has a
50% chance of dropping no ribbons
25% chance of droppign 1 ribbon
12.5% chance of dropping 2 ribbons
6.25% chance for 3
3.125% for 4
1.5625% chance for 5
.78125% chance for 6

^^^ that's how the graph I made set it up, i forget what its called, negative exponential correlation or something
Tommassino Preldent
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#38 - 2012-08-20 00:09:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Tommassino Preldent
Frontier Barracks 104/7
Frontier Command Post 83/5
Sleeper Information Sanctum 150/2
Arazel Chainfire
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#39 - 2012-08-20 17:03:04 UTC
Ok, lets get this straight.

K-Space exploration - random loot is random. However, if you are running anomalies in nullsec, you can accurately predict that you are going to get X isk per hour. The reason why random loot is random though, is because there are things like faction and complex loot drops, which are random and varied enough that no average can be gained from them. Guess what WH space doesn't have?

So, what does WH space have that is random? Nano-ribbons. Guess what WH space that isn't random? Anomalies!
Guess what K-space has that isn't random in "exploration"? Anomalies!

OMG do we have here a correlation? Are we saying that C1-C6 anomalies are similar to K-Space anomalies? YES! And guess what - people measure isk/hour from K-space anomalies all the time. Amazing isn't it? And we already know that every battleship/cruiser/frigate already drops "blue loot" that is worth Y amount of isk, because there are NPC buy orders up for them at that price. This is just like bounties from k-space anomalies. And since the blue loot is always the same, we can go ahead and set sites as having a "minimum value".

Wait, if sites have a minimum value, how is it random again? Nano-ribbons. Those special things that only drop in WH space, and are worth lots of isk. But because every site has between 0 and infinite nano-ribbons, but are always worth about the same value (cause 1 nano-ribbon is exactly the same as another), we actually CAN calculate the average number. And since the randomness is just in the number of a particular item that is dropped, but not really in the value of that item, that average number is actually useful.

"But what is the purpose" you ask. After all, every site isn't going to be worth the same amount. Simple - if you are putting together a "corp buyback program", and the corp is taking (ex. 10% cut) then the corp can go ahead and put a value on each site, and pay members according to the average value of the site. By placing this value on the site, the corp then doesn't need to worry about silly **** like getting everything out to K-space to sell before giving out isk. This makes it a lot easier if you are doing something like living in a WH with some characters, while keeping others outside of the WH. Or trying to prevent daily trips out to sell loot. Or you just want numbers so that way you can flout them to all the nullsec bears and invite them to come to "real space", (so you can kill them naturally).

Conclusion: STFU about random being random. It isn't "completely random" and there are rather easy to achieve averages.

-Arazel
Keith Planck
Hi-Sec Huggers
#40 - 2012-08-20 17:14:26 UTC
Tommassino Preldent wrote:
Frontier Barracks 104/7
Frontier Command Post 83/5
Sleeper Information Sanctum 150/2


logged <3
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