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Ore Refining Renormalization.

Author
Droxlyn
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#1 - 2012-07-24 08:03:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Droxlyn
I've been trying to understand how the Ore refining rates were devised. I think it suffered from doubled up rarity reduction. Both by count per batch and by count per m3. Fortunately, one of those was basically undone by having rarer minerals used less in production, easing the demand side of the supply problem.

Spreadsheet I'm going to reference: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdHNyVzQxOGRUVDZDeUc3czVsN0dJVVE#gid=4

Based off of the NPC Mineral Prices, the ores priced out as (160k m3 or 99,791 m3 for Mercoxit):
Veldspar 9,639,639.64
Scordite 16,046,786.79
Plagioclase 17,626,769.63
Pyroxeres 18,688,048.05
Omber 21,878,290.00
Kernite 25,050,037.50
Jaspet 26,989,359.00
Hemorphite 29,591,064.00
Gneiss 32,094,061.50
Hedbergite 36,102,656.00
Dark Ochre 38,545,078.13
Spodumain 46,119,675.00
Crokite 61,309,314.75
Bistot 104,945,332.50
Arkonor 153,904,653.75
Mercoxit 173,308,266.81

Using Today's mineral prices, they work out to:
Veldspar 33,015,765.77
Scordite 35,711,812.31
Plagioclase 33,952,683.66
Omber 16,890,704.35
Kernite 29,003,607.25
Pyroxeres 32,648,672.22
Jaspet 30,394,215.63
Hemorphite 28,232,493.56
Gneiss 14,386,668.68
Hedbergite 30,807,048.38
Dark Ochre 24,105,720.70
Spodumain 13,129,501.88
Crokite 28,701,380.40
Bistot 33,250,543.25
Arkonor 44,978,002.39
Mercoxit 34,377,901.27

The Ores have nearly all normalized to m3/hour in the high 20s to low 30s. Some of them are hopelessly deficient and will never be competitive.

On my spreadsheet on the Jita-NormalOre tab:
The first section is the as-is state.
The second section has modified refining amounts, the low-sec and null-sec ores are grouped by their best mineral. The high-sec ores are simply grouped together.
The low-sec and null-sec ores have had their outputs modified such that each group has a value that should keep them above the high-sec yields by around 2, 4, or 6x. This was done by increasing the yields of all the minerals except the highest two for each group. Mercoxit simply gained the lowest 4 minerals. The values 2, 4, and 6x multipliers was not chosen completely randomly. Based upon the NPC Mineral prices, the ratios were closer to 2.4, 6, and 7.
The low-end mineral baseket of the Megacyte family was not diverse enough and ended up flooding the few they had. So I substituted the ratios of minerals these used from some high-sec ores.
Spodumain's lowends are based off of the current Omber mineral ratio.
Bistot's lowends are based off of Pyroxeres' current mineral ratio.
Arkonor's lowends are based off of Kernite's current mineral ratio.

These values should preserve the rarity of the mid- and high-end minerals/ores. Improve Nullsec's self-reliance for minerals. And Improve the Risk/Reward of mining in the various regions. Spodumain also becomes an awesome ore to mine.

After this modification, the ores would value at with today's Jita mineral prices as:
Veldspar 33,015,765.77
Scordite 35,711,812.31
Plagioclase 33,952,683.66
Omber 25,968,022.60
Kernite 29,003,607.25
Pyroxeres 32,648,672.22
Jaspet 65,281,518.02
Hemorphite 69,995,722.41
Gneiss 57,365,158.06
Hedbergite 55,974,623.24
Dark Ochre 67,696,204.10
Spodumain 107,477,872.83
Crokite 70,187,083.35
Bistot 134,629,716.22
Arkonor 124,310,929.46
Mercoxit 187,936,067.35

If the mineral prices normalize to the expected ratios, the High-sec ores would be equal to each other roughly, Mid-grade ores would be worth 2x the high-sec ores, ABS ores would be worth 4x the high-sec ores, and Mercoxit would be worth 6x the high-sec ores (per hour).

Thanks,
Drox
Dave Stark
#2 - 2012-07-24 09:03:51 UTC
doesn't matter what minerals come from what ores. people will mine the highest isk/hour ore until the demand is so high another ore becomes more isk/hour and eventually that cycle will continue until all ores are worth a similar isk/hour ratio. basically what we're seeing now.

there are 10 or so ores within about a 3.5m/hr between them all. once people dump all the pyerite they've been mining it'll drop and plaig will go up to the most valuable until people dump their mex then because nobody has been mining veld the trit will be drying up and the prices for that will rise and veld will be the #1 thing to mine as it once was before...

although spodumain needs fixing, it's pointless.

also mining will never be worth more than 20-30m an hour, because as soon as it does every one will start mining, drive the prices down, start mission running again because mining is worth 5m/hour then because less people are doing it mineral prices will go back up so more miners will come out and mine again...

aside from some ores like spodumain needing fixing because it's just got a retardedly low yield of minerals changing mineral yields won't really do anything, it will just change what people pick to mine rather than what ores are worth.
Droxlyn
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#3 - 2012-07-24 12:56:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Droxlyn
It would be a very bad market/day when the ores would fall to what you describe. My new yields increase the low-ends heavily to enforce the x2, x4, x6 valuations. I did not increase the top 2 high-ends of each of the ores to ensure those minerals did not have a significant increase in supply.

The values of the Ores after the highsec minerals crash to 0.01 isk/u and the others are half current value with my modified refining rates:

Veldspar 48,198.20
Scordite 40,133.03
Plagioclase 14,101.42
Omber 6,061.55
Kernite 5,166.09
Pyroxeres 4,961,161.04
Jaspet 12,153,776.63
Hemorphite 13,930,163.08
Gneiss 5,475,818.22
Hedbergite 11,966,051.82
Dark Ochre 12,077,248.83
Spodumain 6,479,177.96
Crokite 14,377,870.88
Bistot 32,034,260.20
Arkonor 22,530,310.38
Mercoxit 17,290,963.58

Drox
Dave Stark
#4 - 2012-07-24 13:19:50 UTC
but that's my point; you won't increase ore value by adding more minerals, you'll just depress prices. no matter what ore yields what minerals people will always mine the most isk/hr ores until the supply and demand forces them all to within an acceptable margin of each other (10 ores within 3.5m isk/hr of each other)
Droxlyn
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#5 - 2012-07-24 13:41:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Droxlyn
I figured it was mostly the high-sec ores that were driving the rational balancing act.
I put together a more likely crash state:
Tritanium 0.93
Pyerite 3.13
Mexallon 11.86
Isogen 31.76
Nocxium 227.26
Zydrine 256.53
Megacyte 831.76
Morphite 360.36

Veldspar 4,497,401.99
Scordite 6,682,764.57
Plagioclase 6,716,869.87
Omber 8,572,268.42
Kernite 7,284,603.05
Pyroxeres 7,864,557.23
Jaspet 17,534,776.18
Hemorphite 19,721,953.29
Gneiss 17,595,626.93
Hedbergite 20,697,763.02
Dark Ochre 14,865,556.80
Spodumain 35,905,013.35
Crokite 15,506,273.90
Bistot 35,924,729.82
Arkonor 35,979,215.92
Mercoxit 35,979,215.92

The interesting thing about this result is, Empire would end up being the importer of all minerals instead of an exporter. While I hate this idea as a high-sec miner, I think it is in line with the Bash High-Sec income policy CCP seems to have.

The reason for my suggested change is to ensure the price disparity between the security ranges. If the prices do fall within the same values between all ranges, the high-end minerals have tanked while the low-ends did not. And that's unlikely to happen due to the high supply of the low-ends. (When it happens in my current spreadsheet, the high-end minerals go negative.)

Anyway, that's all I've got for this insanity.
mxzf
Shovel Bros
#6 - 2012-07-24 14:02:34 UTC
I think this belongs in the S&I or MD forums. You'll find more people in there who have delved very deep into the economy of Eve who can either confirm or (more likely) disprove your theories.

As it stands, all of your numbers seem extremely screwy, but I haven't been elbow deep in minerals for a bit, so I'm at best a somewhat-educated opinion. And your "NPC Mineral Prices" seem especially off the wall, since there are no NPC mineral prices at all in the game.

Also, drop the dollar sign. This is Eve, nothing except PLEX has any $ value. Either say ISK or just leave it blank, dollar signs are just an eyesore (especially when you're not talking about dollars).
Droxlyn
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#7 - 2012-07-24 14:12:00 UTC
mxzf wrote:
I think this belongs in the S&I or MD forums. You'll find more people in there who have delved very deep into the economy of Eve who can either confirm or (more likely) disprove your theories.

As it stands, all of your numbers seem extremely screwy, but I haven't been elbow deep in minerals for a bit, so I'm at best a somewhat-educated opinion. And your "NPC Mineral Prices" seem especially off the wall, since there are no NPC mineral prices at all in the game.

Also, drop the dollar sign. This is Eve, nothing except PLEX has any $ value. Either say ISK or just leave it blank, dollar signs are just an eyesore (especially when you're not talking about dollars).


I punch my currency button to get 2 decimal places and to differentiate from the other numbers. I'll save your eyes and do a search and replace for $ before posting.

I used the NPC values to establish what the designers had in mind for relative ore valuation. That was all of their purpose in this.

Drox