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Invention success rates nerfed??
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Ginger Barbarella
#21 - 2012-07-26 16:08:46 UTC
Emperor Salazar wrote:
Ginger Barbarella wrote:


As I said already, my OBSERVATION is purely anecdotal.


Anecdotal is just a fancy word for useless, when it comes to observations.


Awesome contribution to the topic. Keep up the good work.

Oh, and GD is that way ------>

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Emperor Salazar
Remote Soviet Industries
Insidious Empire
#22 - 2012-07-27 12:25:20 UTC
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Emperor Salazar wrote:
Ginger Barbarella wrote:


As I said already, my OBSERVATION is purely anecdotal.


Anecdotal is just a fancy word for useless, when it comes to observations.


Awesome contribution to the topic. Keep up the good work.

Oh, and GD is that way ------>


Tell me another anecdote baby.
Emperor Salazar
Remote Soviet Industries
Insidious Empire
#23 - 2012-07-27 12:26:13 UTC
I ran another 10 jobs and 1 was successful.

I guess they must have bumped it back up to 10%. I hope they bump it up more SadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSad
Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#24 - 2012-07-27 13:30:48 UTC
Emperor Salazar wrote:
I ran another 10 jobs and 1 was successful.

I guess they must have bumped it back up to 10%. I hope they bump it up more SadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSadSad


Is it possible for test players NOT to be jerks?
Just wondering.

The OP presents stats over a significant sample size, asks a legit question, and you choose to ignore all of it.
Wow, just wow.
Emperor Salazar
Remote Soviet Industries
Insidious Empire
#25 - 2012-07-27 18:12:42 UTC
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:


Is it possible for test players NOT to be jerks?


I'm sorry did I hurt your precious feelings?
Emperor Salazar
Remote Soviet Industries
Insidious Empire
#26 - 2012-07-27 18:12:52 UTC
I'm not really sorry, just to be clear.
Ginger Barbarella
#27 - 2012-07-28 17:01:51 UTC
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
Emperor Salazar wrote:
** idiocy snipped **


Is it possible for test players NOT to be jerks?
Just wondering.


No it's not, especially this tool. He proves it over and over again in every thread I've seen him post in. Just block him. Smile

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Pipa Porto
#28 - 2012-07-28 17:39:26 UTC
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:
Emperor Salazar wrote:
** idiocy snipped **


Is it possible for test players NOT to be jerks?
Just wondering.


No it's not, especially this tool. He proves it over and over again in every thread I've seen him post in. Just block him. Smile


We were having a nice discussion about statistics, then you came in and cried that people in other threads don't take your percentages at face value.

I pointed out that you can post your P values to show people what level of statistical confidence you have, and you apparently decided that statistics is e-peen games. Roll

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Emperor Salazar
Remote Soviet Industries
Insidious Empire
#29 - 2012-07-28 20:01:43 UTC
Ginger Barbarella wrote:


No it's not, especially this tool. He proves it over and over again in every thread I've seen him post in. Just block him. Smile


such a goddamn tool
Emperor Salazar
Remote Soviet Industries
Insidious Empire
#30 - 2012-07-28 20:03:44 UTC
I don't appreciate the name calling by the way.

You guys are such jerks.

I'm telling my mommy.
Ginger Barbarella
#31 - 2012-07-29 13:45:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Ginger Barbarella
Pipa Porto wrote:
We were having a nice discussion about statistics, then you came in and cried that people in other threads don't take your percentages at face value.


Wow, you clearly either didn't read or didn't understand my post whatsoever. No crying here at all: I was merely stating that for some people your percentages (anyone's percentages, since your comprehension is now in question) aren't enough to comment about statistically here, and I have no problems whatsoever with invention. I make money with my invention rates here in EveO, so who am I to complain?

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#32 - 2012-07-29 16:43:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Smohq Anmirorz
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
We were having a nice discussion about statistics, then you came in and cried that people in other threads don't take your percentages at face value.


Wow, you clearly either didn't read or didn't understand my post whatsoever. No crying here at all: I was merely stating that for some people your percentages (anyone's percentages, since your comprehension is now in question) aren't enough to comment about statistically here, and I have no problems whatsoever with invention. I make money with my invention rates here in EveO, so who am I to complain?


Well you did make the statement : ": One man's "significant statistical level" is another man's "you're not doing it enough."", which shows a lack of understanding of p-values. So you were given a link to show statistical significance and your first statement is "I don't play forum epeen games". There is no epeen game there, just a statement how you can show how significant your number is.

Your doubts about whether it would be enough are IN THE FORMULA. That's what the test of significance is, a test to see if your numbers mean anything. Straight-up trial numbers and percentages are just too limited to comment on.
Pipa Porto
#33 - 2012-07-29 18:10:13 UTC
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
We were having a nice discussion about statistics, then you came in and cried that people in other threads don't take your percentages at face value.


Wow, you clearly either didn't read or didn't understand my post whatsoever. No crying here at all: I was merely stating that for some people your percentages (anyone's percentages, since your comprehension is now in question) aren't enough to comment about statistically here, and I have no problems whatsoever with invention. I make money with my invention rates here in EveO, so who am I to complain?


Yes. Raw percentages, without P-Values and/or other tests of significance are worthless. They always have been.

Getting 3 or fewer Successes on 10 Coin Flips has a probability of .17
Getting 30 or fewer Successes on 100 Coin Flips has a probability of .000039

Both are a 30% Success rate when you expect 50%, but one is a much more compelling argument for an unfair coin.

Like I said, if you want people to pay attention to your statistics, you have to post actual statistics, not just percentages.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Ditra Vorthran
Caldari Imports and Exports
#34 - 2012-07-30 08:15:45 UTC
There's one in every patch... Roll

"Miners mine so I don't have to." ~Metal Icarus
Airto TLA
Acorn's Wonder Bars
#35 - 2012-07-31 16:58:57 UTC
Ditra Vorthran wrote:
There's one in every patch... Roll



And there probaly should be one in any patch, since:

1.) Game Designers change stuff all the time and forget to put it in the patch notes

2.) Game programmers eff stuff up all the time in patches

3.) The invention odds are not shown anywhere in game so you can not tell of they changed

4.) It is impossible to get a suffucient sample size to tell if 1 or 2 has happened so your only hope is reach out to the community and if you do not get the overwhelming hey I am getting boned as well, you assume you are just unlucky.

There are plenty of "streaks" that are not statisically valid, but really suck when you are in the middle of them.

Plus I have the type of luck where even though, I must be close to even, I will miss twice as often on that BPC i really could make money on and hit at a higher rate on the BPC that is just done to fill inventory until the next time (and since I now have a ton of them that will be a long time for now).
Casiella Truza
Ecliptic Rift
#36 - 2012-07-31 21:29:27 UTC
If you ever write the words "I have the type of luck" in a non-ironic sense, then you should not ever be in any discussion about probability.
Emperor Salazar
Remote Soviet Industries
Insidious Empire
#37 - 2012-08-02 14:56:26 UTC
Airto TLA wrote:
There's one in every patch... Roll
And there probaly should be one in any patch, since:


No.
Ravenclaw2kk
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#38 - 2012-08-02 17:29:07 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
We were having a nice discussion about statistics, then you came in and cried that people in other threads don't take your percentages at face value.


Wow, you clearly either didn't read or didn't understand my post whatsoever. No crying here at all: I was merely stating that for some people your percentages (anyone's percentages, since your comprehension is now in question) aren't enough to comment about statistically here, and I have no problems whatsoever with invention. I make money with my invention rates here in EveO, so who am I to complain?


Yes. Raw percentages, without P-Values and/or other tests of significance are worthless. They always have been.

Getting 3 or fewer Successes on 10 Coin Flips has a probability of .17
Getting 30 or fewer Successes on 100 Coin Flips has a probability of .000039

Both are a 30% Success rate when you expect 50%, but one is a much more compelling argument for an unfair coin.



Can you link to some extra info about this?
Pipa Porto
#39 - 2012-08-02 17:34:44 UTC
Ravenclaw2kk wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
We were having a nice discussion about statistics, then you came in and cried that people in other threads don't take your percentages at face value.


Wow, you clearly either didn't read or didn't understand my post whatsoever. No crying here at all: I was merely stating that for some people your percentages (anyone's percentages, since your comprehension is now in question) aren't enough to comment about statistically here, and I have no problems whatsoever with invention. I make money with my invention rates here in EveO, so who am I to complain?


Yes. Raw percentages, without P-Values and/or other tests of significance are worthless. They always have been.

Getting 3 or fewer Successes on 10 Coin Flips has a probability of .17
Getting 30 or fewer Successes on 100 Coin Flips has a probability of .000039

Both are a 30% Success rate when you expect 50%, but one is a much more compelling argument for an unfair coin.



Can you link to some extra info about this?


http://lmgtfy.com/?q=P-Value
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=binomial+probability
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Statistics

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Ravenclaw2kk
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#40 - 2012-08-02 18:17:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Ravenclaw2kk
Pipa Porto wrote:
Ravenclaw2kk wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
We were having a nice discussion about statistics, then you came in and cried that people in other threads don't take your percentages at face value.


Wow, you clearly either didn't read or didn't understand my post whatsoever. No crying here at all: I was merely stating that for some people your percentages (anyone's percentages, since your comprehension is now in question) aren't enough to comment about statistically here, and I have no problems whatsoever with invention. I make money with my invention rates here in EveO, so who am I to complain?


Yes. Raw percentages, without P-Values and/or other tests of significance are worthless. They always have been.

Getting 3 or fewer Successes on 10 Coin Flips has a probability of .17
Getting 30 or fewer Successes on 100 Coin Flips has a probability of .000039

Both are a 30% Success rate when you expect 50%, but one is a much more compelling argument for an unfair coin.



Can you link to some extra info about this?


http://lmgtfy.com/?q=P-Value
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=binomial+probability
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Statistics


Clever troll. I should have know better than to ask an alt.
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