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Somer Blink: Legit or Scam?
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JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#221 - 2012-07-09 19:07:55 UTC
I have never played blink, just talked to some friends who have done some winning and some losing; looked around the Blink site and read the Blink rules; lurked in the Blink chat channel and followed the saga of butthurt loser Trolls vs Blink here on General Discussion Forums.

I particularly want to thank the Trolls for helping me decide to join Blink. I mean, if this is all you can dredge up and dream up, Blink looks pretty good to me as a place where I know I will get a fair chance to maybe win some nice things.

On the slim off chance that this is a different set of trolls from the ones bumping the other attack site, I am going to copy this post and go post it on the other failed butthurt loser Trolls vs Blink forum to thank those trolls. I wouldn't want to seem like I favor one set of trolls over another.

added - I actually posted this on the other site first, but promised to paste it here, so I didn't want to change it. I will admit that I corrected a typo between that site and this one by changing a capital "J" to the correct lower case "j" before posting this version.
Hudzen Ten
Doomheim
#222 - 2012-07-09 20:28:55 UTC
When starting the site, underhand tactics such as fake char betting bots, fixed winners etc might have been necessary to keep the interest and profit.

But now there is no need, so many people play it why bother when the house always gets a cut.

They always gonna get good feedback as hardly anyone will admit to having lost money to it, like any genre of junkie confessing to their sins. (i only smoke meth every now and then bro, nah im clean, and yeh im like 1bil up on blink)

I only hope they do something amusing with the giant pile of wealth they have rather than just building the pyramid higher.
Soundwave Plays Diablo
Doomheim
#223 - 2012-07-09 23:23:17 UTC
Pariah Fenwick wrote:
Soundwave Plays Diablo wrote:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GHoXNkG0Ao8/T-iMiVzy7sI/AAAAAAAAACE/abFdwrUSDjc/s640/blink-r234-stats-01.jpg
You lost 2.87:1
chances of winning are 1:8 or 1:16 buying one ticket.

2.79 tickets purchased per blink, or 5.57 tickets per ultra.

585,504,190 per win.

21,00,49,628 invested in each blink average.

3,864,183,476,388 invested.

3,842,664,001,750 paid out.

You are either one lucky ************, or a shill. They have a 35% take.


Ok I am going to try and explain it one more time.

If replacement 234 buys 12 tickets on a rorq (something he often did) he would pay 12 x 224,500,000 isk = 2,694,000,000 isk
If he wins said rorq he currently gets 3,214,800,000 isk.

Ok this is where your figures gain some inaccuracies.

If replacement 234 exchanges that prize for blink credit (which he very often does) he then gets an extra 5% on top of the winning amount, so 3,375,540,000 isk. Hence he now has 3,375,540,000 isk blink credit. Rinse and repeat this cycle 5 times, as it is entirely possible he would win 5 rorqs 5 times in a row buying 12 out of 16 tickets.

His winnings would say 16,074,000,000 isk but he actually only deposited an initial deposit of 2.694,000,000 isk OF HIS OWN ISK.

This is how blink credit and recycling works, just because he played so many thousand blinks does not mean he paid raw isk for them, just recycled blink credit. It is very common for blink players stats to say they have won more than they deposited because blink does not include prizes exchanged for blink credit into the isk deposited figure.

I cannot explain it any clearer, the only thing that has come about this whole post is that blink maybe should word the total figure won better. Everything else is guessed and inaccurate.


You cant explain it any clearer because the source of the ISK has nothing to do with the win:loss ratio. That has already been explained to you repeatedly and I am not going to bother doing it again.
Pariah Fenwick
Doomheim
#224 - 2012-07-10 07:07:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Pariah Fenwick
Soundwave Plays Diablo wrote:
Pariah Fenwick wrote:
Soundwave Plays Diablo wrote:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GHoXNkG0Ao8/T-iMiVzy7sI/AAAAAAAAACE/abFdwrUSDjc/s640/blink-r234-stats-01.jpg
You lost 2.87:1
chances of winning are 1:8 or 1:16 buying one ticket.

2.79 tickets purchased per blink, or 5.57 tickets per ultra.

585,504,190 per win.

21,00,49,628 invested in each blink average.

3,864,183,476,388 invested.

3,842,664,001,750 paid out.

You are either one lucky ************, or a shill. They have a 35% take.


Ok I am going to try and explain it one more time.

If replacement 234 buys 12 tickets on a rorq (something he often did) he would pay 12 x 224,500,000 isk = 2,694,000,000 isk
If he wins said rorq he currently gets 3,214,800,000 isk.

Ok this is where your figures gain some inaccuracies.

If replacement 234 exchanges that prize for blink credit (which he very often does) he then gets an extra 5% on top of the winning amount, so 3,375,540,000 isk. Hence he now has 3,375,540,000 isk blink credit. Rinse and repeat this cycle 5 times, as it is entirely possible he would win 5 rorqs 5 times in a row buying 12 out of 16 tickets.

His winnings would say 16,074,000,000 isk but he actually only deposited an initial deposit of 2.694,000,000 isk OF HIS OWN ISK.

This is how blink credit and recycling works, just because he played so many thousand blinks does not mean he paid raw isk for them, just recycled blink credit. It is very common for blink players stats to say they have won more than they deposited because blink does not include prizes exchanged for blink credit into the isk deposited figure.

I cannot explain it any clearer, the only thing that has come about this whole post is that blink maybe should word the total figure won better. Everything else is guessed and inaccurate.


You cant explain it any clearer because the source of the ISK has nothing to do with the win:loss ratio. That has already been explained to you repeatedly and I am not going to bother doing it again.


HAHAHAH, read what your boy wrote dude, he based the win ratio on isk spent on blinks, something that is impossible to do. The way the site works it out is as follows, now read carefully :

Total blinks played/blinks won=win percentage. Currently, I think Replacement 234's winning percentage is around 30%, not surprising when he buys 12 of 16 tickets most of the time (not 5/6 as suggested in your boys post). So, winning 30 out of 100 blinks? Doesn't seem rigged to me, seems like sound statistics.

The source of the isk has been explained to me? LOL you aren't a very good reader are you, I think you will find I trashed another one of your conspiracy theories and now you get even more butthurt about it and try reverse physcology.

Last post from me, I can't be arsed with your pathetic little attempts to create a smear campaign against a lottery site that delivers 100% of player's prizes 100% of the time. Keep on posting here by all means, but blink has gained another 1000 accounts since the "smear" campaign started so I really don't think it's working :)

Like I have said before, if you don't want to play, don't, but if other people want to throw isk at it, let them, wtf has it got to do with you?
Soundwave Plays Diablo
Doomheim
#225 - 2012-07-10 07:12:02 UTC
If hes spending 12 tickets at a time with a 30% win ratio there's something terribly ******* wrong.
Pariah Fenwick
Doomheim
#226 - 2012-07-10 07:21:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Pariah Fenwick
Soundwave Plays Diablo wrote:
If hes spending 12 tickets at a time with a 30% win ratio there's something terribly ******* wrong.


Funny that, because just now according to your boy he wasn't losing anything, just goes to show everyone's win ratio is 1:2, you either win or lose :)

Every time he lost one of his 12 ticket blinks his win ratio would go down, multiply that over 18000 odd blinks, makes sense really.

Oh and this really is my last post :)

Have fun with your "smear" campaign o/
JusFooling Around
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#227 - 2012-07-10 07:40:11 UTC
Soundwave Plays Diablo wrote:
If hes spending 12 tickets at a time with a 30% win ratio there's something terribly ******* wrong.


If you read his posts, which are quite well written, he plays different strategies. He bagan the 12 tix strategy when he made an out side bet, so the losses hw was suffering in the game would be recovered vy the winnings of the outside bet.

He says he plays untill he sustains a few losses, then takes a break and comes back later to test the waters of his luck, I believe he said, by buying 6 or 8 tix on cheap ships to see how his luck was running and if he lost, he woudl quit again and continue this method until he started to win again, then he would switch to the larger valued ships.

His stated goal for 5 daya of mof his several months of playing was to advance his "value of blink credit won" which really has nothing to do with profit.

Maybe the dude has a boatload of RL money and bought 50 CTCs that week to wind the bet.

But you are wanting to tie the 30% win ratio from his months of play with the strategy he used for five days.

And a good question was asked of you - what difference does it make to you? What is your motivation to confuse macro stats with micro actions? Have you lost a lot of ISK? Are you the masked avenger of all people who fail at gambling?

You are not the only person who can be suspicious of anothers actions and motivations. Have you petitioned him? Will he petition you for harassment?

Before you do anyn more smearing. answer the questions I posed above or just stfu.
Vera Algaert
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#228 - 2012-07-10 07:40:17 UTC
Pariah Fenwick wrote:
Soundwave Plays Diablo wrote:
If hes spending 12 tickets at a time with a 30% win ratio there's something terribly ******* wrong.


Funny that, because just now according to your boy he wasn't losing anything, just goes to show everyone's win ratio is 1:2, you either win or lose :)

Every time he lost one of his 12 ticket blinks his win ratio would go down, multiply that over 18000 odd blinks, makes sense really.

Oh and this really is my last post :)

Have fun with your "smear" campaign o/

12 tickets out of 16 should result in a long-term win ratio of 75%.

.
Pariah Fenwick
Doomheim
#229 - 2012-07-10 08:02:24 UTC
Quote:

12 tickets out of 16 should result in a long-term win ratio of 75%.



Sorry 1 more post :)

You would be correct if the constant was 75% but it is not, it is entirely possible to lose 100% after playing 10 blinks with 75% odds of winning. I have seen many times someone buy 12 tickets and one of the other 4 win several times in a row, so you can never be guaranteed anything.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#230 - 2012-07-10 08:40:48 UTC
Vera Algaert wrote:
12 tickets out of 16 should result in a long-term win ratio of 75%.
The funny thing about randomness is that you can always use the argument “long-term hasn't happened yet”. Blink
Soundwave Plays Diablo
Doomheim
#231 - 2012-07-10 08:46:57 UTC
Quote:
If you read his posts, which are quite well written, he plays different strategies. He bagan the 12 tix strategy when he made an out side bet, so the losses hw was suffering in the game would be recovered vy the winnings of the outside bet.


A failproof strategy of many people with 3 fingers on their right hand.

Quote:
His stated goal for 5 daya of mof his several months of playing was to advance his "value of blink credit won" which really has nothing to do with profit.


Has everything to do with the odds being against you.

Quote:
Maybe the dude has a boatload of RL money and bought 50 CTCs that week to wind the bet.


At that point there would be no question that he was a degenerate gambler, and if you trust a degenerate gambler there is no need to burden you any further with stressful activities such as thinking for yourself.

Quote:
But you are wanting to tie the 30% win ratio from his months of play with the strategy he used for five days.


35% +/- 1% from the time the screen was taken till now. Any 5 day sample over the course of 25000 bets is insignificant.

Quote:
And a good question was asked of you - what difference does it make to you?


I said he was extremely lucky or a shill. Luck so good that it would get you banned from vegas. Unless of course he is dumping trillions outside of his winnings into the system, which of course makes him a _____.
Soundwave Plays Diablo
Doomheim
#232 - 2012-07-10 08:47:27 UTC
Quote:
Are you the masked avenger of all people who fail at gambling?


The only people who don't fail at gambling are the house and professional poker players. Statistically, there is no way you can beat the house over a long enough timeline, period. Rather funny to me, because professional poker players refer to the cream of the crop as "gamblers", sarcastically.

Quote:
Have you petitioned him?


Why would I?

Quote:
Will he petition you for harassment?


Asking me what someone else will do, how the **** should I know?

Quote:
Before you do anyn more smearing...


I said he was either really lucky or a shill. One of maybe 5 in history to beat the house w/o cheating. If you think you can beat the house, try it for yourself. You will become unimaginably wealthy if you figure out how, and be truly truly elite.

But everybody reading this thread with an E.Q. of over 15 years old already knows it wont happen.
Vera Algaert
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#233 - 2012-07-10 08:55:38 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Vera Algaert wrote:
12 tickets out of 16 should result in a long-term win ratio of 75%.
The funny thing about randomness is that you can always use the argument “long-term hasn't happened yet”. Blink

simple binomial test tells you how (un)likely that is

.
Andre Cadelanne
Carebears and Noobs Inc
#234 - 2012-07-10 10:02:19 UTC
I see that mistake made here by some people in a lot of browser games:

if you talk about how probable a single (multi-layered) random experiment is and then say the observed outcome "is almost impossible", you always dont consider, that on things like blink, with that huge amount of players, who each perform these random experiments a multitude of times, the number of how often this is performed is huge - this makes it very very likely that outcomes that are very unlikely in a single try, are nearly bound to happen to one or a couple of people. Example - the chance of having, lets say, a certain percentage of winning is 0.01%, if you try this 40000*100=4000000 times (players * amount_each_player_does_it), the probability of this happening to AT LEAST one (one or more people) is 1 - 2*10^(-174)
(if each player just does it once its still >98%)
Milail
Malo Lupo
#235 - 2012-07-12 12:09:59 UTC
Disclaimer seems to be in order. I am not now, nor have I ever been associated with Blink or any of their alts / corps / alliances.

I've seen the good and bad of my blinking habit *smacks the vein in the forearm* but rigged? I really don't think so at all. We're all playing odds, and statistics are not good tools for predicting the outcome of these blinks. Somer uses random.org as far as I know for all the blinks, patterns do come up.

For Example:

Prize Your Tickets Winning Ticket Status
Machariel 138 42 Complete
Bhaalgorn 149 52 Complete
250,000,000 Blink Credit 150 148 Complete
Strategic Cruiser 150 138 Complete

HOWEVER, patterns are inevitable. They will happen no matter what, if this was something that was planned the algorithm would have been found long ago, and it would have put Somer out of commission.

So many people have lost their ISK because of not playing it smart (myself included) but getting angry, and claiming Somer is a fraud because you handed them your isk, and the odds being in your favor or not, you didn't make money on it is just childish, if you want a sure thing don't blink, and just play the market.

To avoid getting mad, only drop isk in Blink you can afford to completely lose, that way anything you do win is just icing on the cake, don't use Blink to try to get rich, think of it more as a minigame in EVE.
Alex Luther
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#236 - 2012-08-07 17:32:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Alex Luther
Copine Callmeknau wrote:
While this does look extremely /tinfoil


I really do wonder how a player can be winning blinks in august 2011 while only existing in eve since may 2012

It's possible the blog and screenshot of the char's birthdate has been faked, I'm not in game to verify things atm, it's extremely suspicious if those screenshots are legit though.



Well it looks like a shill player to me... Apparently somer didnt bother to even update her db and match the date the toon started playing to the birth date of the toon in eve.

Princess Darknight profile on Blink

Princess Darknights character and employment history via the eve api

So clearly you can see by the characters employment history "row recordID="19706243" corporationID="1000077" startDate="2012-05-10 20:22:00"" that it was born long after the first award was given on blink's website.

Now one possibility is that the character was created by a valid eve player back in 2011 but it was later biomassed then recreated. Oh and the toon had some extremely good luck winning.
highonpop
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#237 - 2012-08-07 17:39:34 UTC
I've dropped hundreds of millions of ISK into somer, more than I wish to try and count.



I've only ever won a raptor... twice....



Its no scam. Just gambling like usual. I had a corp mate win a Mach off a promo blink once. He didnt even know he had won, another corp mate was watching it and you here on comms:

corpy 1"Ah, Damn.. I didn't win the machariel.."
corpy 1"Wait, (corp mate's name), YOU WON!"
corpy 2" I won? OH ****! IM GOING TO JITA!"

FC, what do?
Alex Luther
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#238 - 2012-08-07 17:53:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Alex Luther
Pariah Fenwick wrote:
Sierra Skyy wrote:
Will someone from Somer Blink please confirm or deny the statements on this specific page?

http://blinkexposed.blogspot.com/p/lies-on-every-page.html

Have Blink players really taken home, as of now, over 262 trillion ISK as stated on your website?



Troll troll troll troll troll troll troll

You really are pretty stupid aren't you?

Taken home means "Won prizes to the value of". Whether or not the player has cashed out or exchanged for blink credit is their decision.

Quote:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GHoXNkG0Ao8/T-iMiVzy7sI/AAAAAAAAACE/abFdwrUSDjc/s640/blink-r234-stats-01.jpg
You lost 2.87:1
chances of winning are 1:8 or 1:16 buying one ticket.

2.79 tickets purchased per blink, or 5.57 tickets per ultra.

585,504,190 per win.

21,00,49,628 invested in each blink average.

3,864,183,476,388 invested.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GHoXNkG0Ao8/T-iMiVzy7sI/AAAAAAAAACE/abFdwrUSDjc/s640/blink-r234-stats-01.jpg
You lost 2.87:1
chances of winning are 1:8 or 1:16 buying one ticket.

2.79 tickets purchased per blink, or 5.57 tickets per ultra.

585,504,190 per win.

21,00,49,628 invested in each blink average.

3,864,183,476,388 invested.

3,842,664,001,750 paid out.

You are either one lucky ************, or a shill. They have a 35% take.



Another thicket. Just because he has won items to the value of 3,842,664,001,750 paid out does not mean he actually cashed out and exchanged them for isk and then ended up with that isk in his wallet. The way he managed to accrue this amount was by exchanging prizes for blink credit or cycling the isk, in other words for the obviously less intelligent ones, exchanging a prize for isk then transferring that isk straight back to blink. Try actually learning how blink works before thinking you know how it does.

*sigh* You really need a better argument


This

Quote:

You lost 2.87:1
chances of winning are 1:8 or 1:16 buying one ticket.


is the only argument you should need.

The guy praises blink on every bad thread about the business, yet he claims to not be affiliated with them on a business level aside from being a player. He also has a crazy win ratio. I challenge you to go on the blink website today and look at 5 active players profile that has a win ratio higher than 3:1 with more than 500 blinks played.

As of right now, here are some profiles i've collected that are currently playing.

player 1
player2
player3
player4
player5

Your turn.

PS - I would love for the author of that blink exposed page to contact this character in game, evemail is fine.
Alex Luther
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#239 - 2012-08-07 18:08:53 UTC
highonpop wrote:
I've dropped hundreds of millions of ISK into somer, more than I wish to try and count.



I've only ever won a raptor... twice....



Its no scam. Just gambling like usual. I had a corp mate win a Mach off a promo blink once. He didnt even know he had won, another corp mate was watching it and you here on comms:

corpy 1"Ah, Damn.. I didn't win the machariel.."
corpy 1"Wait, (corp mate's name), YOU WON!"
corpy 2" I won? OH ****! IM GOING TO JITA!"



Just because you or you know someone who won doesnt mean its not rigged. He can let the system function properly just as he says it works, but then sometimes he can let his friends make some quick isk by fixing certain accounts with the ability to win no matter what.

Honestly as a developer myself, adding an attribute to certain players and making the winning number only fall on a number that this certain player has purchased would be extremely simple and because nobody can prove that he is doing this its completely fine.

Think about it, if you had a legitimate game like blink and you had the ability to win on items you wanted to win on any time you wanted to, wouldnt you?

Example:

FriendofSomer: Man, I just lost my rorqual today... :(
Somer: thats ok, just signin to your account on blink, i've activated your account to win the next rorqual that you bid on.
FriendofSomer: Awesome! I'll never have to pay for another ship again, i can just have the other 15 players pay for it and give you a profit when i win.

Hopefully you see the scam in that. If you could scam people by rigging certain micro lotto's without being caught and without having to provide more that your word that you arnt cheating the system then wouldn't you? If the answer for if you would do it is yes, then that should be all of the proof you need to know that its happening.

On a side note, think about it this way. Somer has successfully severed control of your isk from CCP and replaced control with its own website with its own limitless rules. The day that you give control of your isk to a 3rd party is the day that you will be scammed.

'nough said
Toroup
Prometheus Deep Core Mining and Salvage
#240 - 2012-08-07 19:26:32 UTC
Alex Luther wrote:
highonpop wrote:
I've dropped hundreds of millions of ISK into somer, more than I wish to try and count.



I've only ever won a raptor... twice....



Its no scam. Just gambling like usual. I had a corp mate win a Mach off a promo blink once. He didnt even know he had won, another corp mate was watching it and you here on comms:

corpy 1"Ah, Damn.. I didn't win the machariel.."
corpy 1"Wait, (corp mate's name), YOU WON!"
corpy 2" I won? OH ****! IM GOING TO JITA!"



Just because you or you know someone who won doesnt mean its not rigged. He can let the system function properly just as he says it works, but then sometimes he can let his friends make some quick isk by fixing certain accounts with the ability to win no matter what.

Honestly as a developer myself, adding an attribute to certain players and making the winning number only fall on a number that this certain player has purchased would be extremely simple and because nobody can prove that he is doing this its completely fine.

Think about it, if you had a legitimate game like blink and you had the ability to win on items you wanted to win on any time you wanted to, wouldnt you?

Example:

FriendofSomer: Man, I just lost my rorqual today... :(
Somer: thats ok, just signin to your account on blink, i've activated your account to win the next rorqual that you bid on.
FriendofSomer: Awesome! I'll never have to pay for another ship again, i can just have the other 15 players pay for it and give you a profit when i win.

Hopefully you see the scam in that. If you could scam people by rigging certain micro lotto's without being caught and without having to provide more that your word that you arnt cheating the system then wouldn't you? If the answer for if you would do it is yes, then that should be all of the proof you need to know that its happening.

On a side note, think about it this way. Somer has successfully severed control of your isk from CCP and replaced control with its own website with its own limitless rules. The day that you give control of your isk to a 3rd party is the day that you will be scammed.

'nough said


So this is can not be proven one way or the other unless you were that person or you are Somer - otherwise it's all just tinfoil hat gabble. It's like saying "CCP hates me because that Drake just destroyed my Rokh, they must be a friend of a dev and they gave them the Super Drake!" when the reality it that maybe your fittings suck. maybe they are a better player or maybe it was just luck.

I've lost money on Blink and I've won money on blink. I've never seen anything that leads me to believe that it's rigged.