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The day when highsec mining became more profitable than nullsec/lowsec mining.

Author
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#21 - 2012-07-03 22:20:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Mara Rinn
Dave stark wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Pyerite (and all low ends, in fact) are driven by a huge lack of supply and I have no reason to believe that their massive supply issues will have changed in the three weeks since I've been able to revise my estimates.


but over the last week pyerite has gone up much faster than the other low-ends, surely them all going up is inevitable but why the sudden jump in pyerite?


corestwo is partially correct: part of the price pressure on Pyerite is due to supply: I head out into the mining belts and people are mining Kernite (because Kernite is what they've mined forever), Pyroxeres (because Pyrox has Nocxium) or other ores in preference to the one which yields the highest ISK/hr. Thus one of the basic assumptions of economics has been violated: miners are not “rational players”.

I look forward to Aryth and corestwo revealing their latest multi-trillion ISK market manipulation effort once this bubble bursts. Their careful analysis and pinpointing of Pyerite as a choke point has no doubt paid off in spades :)

Interestingly enough, there were trades yesterday for 5.52 ISK and 98.53 ISK in the Sinq Laison market. Someone's trying to play silly games with the various market sites out there.
Victoria Sin
Doomheim
#22 - 2012-07-12 13:01:00 UTC
In null I usually go for specific ores depending on whatever I need to stock up on for production. Dark Ocre is a brilliant ore to mine because it has lots of Nox and you'll get a fair amount of Zyd in there too. In high sec I just clear the entire belt of everything until all that's left is empty space.

It's true to say there isn't enough pye out there - that's because there isn't enough scord. The proportion of scord in an average belt is far less than veld, but not so much less than veldas it is in build requirements for things like BS in terms of trit and pye. This mismatch changes its value relative to the other ores.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#23 - 2012-07-12 13:43:33 UTC
Victoria Sin wrote:
In high sec I just clear the entire belt of everything until all that's left is empty space.




Could you post the m3 of each ore after cleaning out an entire belt in high sec?


It would be nice to get some real numbers as a function of region.



Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#24 - 2012-07-13 05:52:39 UTC
Do you want one, two or three significant digits? Lol
Sally Poe
Perkone
Caldari State
#25 - 2012-07-13 07:20:04 UTC
when i do break out my miners im far far far to lazy to go belt to belt and cherry pick it I mostly i mostly keep a eye on local eat food bs on TS the last thing i wana do is move a handful accounts around cheery picking ill sit in a belt till its dry then move over. so i wonder though how many miners actually mine for isk/h and not just to mine for the sake of it. if only a small percent of miners are going for pyrite that would further the bottleneck
Dave Stark
#26 - 2012-07-13 11:27:24 UTC
i mine for isk/hour, and that means not mining pyerite containing ores.
Paikis
Vapour Holdings
#27 - 2012-07-13 11:32:31 UTC
There just isn't enough ore in high sec asteroids to be picky. You strip the whole belt and then move on.
Hans Momaki
State War Academy
Caldari State
#28 - 2012-07-13 15:55:23 UTC
Dave stark wrote:
i mine for isk/hour, and that means not mining pyerite containing ores.


So what you say is that you can mine Ark and Merc all the time? Nice1.
Pinstar Colton
Sweet Asteroid Acres
#29 - 2012-07-13 16:21:44 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:
Victoria Sin wrote:
In high sec I just clear the entire belt of everything until all that's left is empty space.




Could you post the m3 of each ore after cleaning out an entire belt in high sec?


It would be nice to get some real numbers as a function of region.





My corp mined out an entire belt in .8 space last night.
I do not recall the total M3, but it yielded about 127m in isk.

In the cat-and-mouse game that is low sec, there is no shame in learning to be a better mouse.

True Sight
Deep Freeze Industries
#30 - 2012-07-13 17:15:58 UTC
Pinstar Colton wrote:
My corp mined out an entire belt in .8 space last night.
I do not recall the total M3, but it yielded about 127m in isk.


How long did that take you in total? Was that gang boosted and how many miners were there? (just wondering on Isk per hour for this)
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#31 - 2012-07-13 17:32:41 UTC
Strrog wrote:
Interesting analysis!

I remember that scordite ore was last desirable type, mining veld was better. So how come scordite is beating veld now consumption changes?

I expect the biggest reason scrodite has risen so much is due to the fact that most common drone minerals had large amounts of pyrite. With drone minerals now pretty much gone,(still drop from some drone structures but makes a very small supply) combine with the fact that scrodite was fro so long the second least valuable ore with many miners skipped over. Pyrite supplies are quickly dwidling. The massive market speculation before the drone POO nerf created massive stockpiles which are just now running dry.

I believe scordite is the new pyroxeres and due to the high demand of pyrite and low supply of scrodite compared to veldaspar it will stay as a valuable ore.
The drone POO/module loot nerf was meant to increase the need for miners by reducing the availability of minerals from refining drone POO and meta 0 loot drops. It worked well, unlike many other idea's CCP has tried in game (unified inventory) . But combine this with the GOONS war on high sec miners and the increase in actively hunting and banning bots, the number of miners has not increased enough to maintain a supply of high sec minerals to meet the mineral demand.

The prices are high and will continue to climb until the supply exceeds the demand and then they will level off and maybe drop. that time will not be soon as the market manipulations are still on going.

The best idea I can come up with to level things out a bit without turning high sec mining into an easy afk cash cow is the modify the composition of some of the low null sec ores to drastically increase the supply of trit and pyrite in low and null. Now before you get worked up I am thinking of one ore in particular. The mighty SPOD. The yield of this ore is so messed up it is totally not worth mining currently. Yes it yields a small amount of megacyte 0.03 per unit which is fine. but it yields and equally small amount of pyrite and only slightly more trit.

I chose SPOD because one of the recent buffs to null sec grav belts was the addition of massive SPOD rocks, but they are useless due to the yield per m3. I believe this was meant to be the primary source of trit and pyrite in null but someone messed up the math. Maybe I am wrong but lets look at what can and could be done with SPOD.

Acording to Cerlestes.de SPOD is curently worth 88 isk per m3 while Veldspar is worth 218 isk/m3 and Scordite is worth 234 isk/m3. Arkonor is only worth 289 isk /m3 while Omber the worst high sec ore is 113 isk/m3. If the difference between 218 and 234 can make scrodite the second most valuable ore 88isk/m3 is a very low number. 25isk/m3 (32%) less than the worst high sec ore. This is where the problem lies with supply of low end ores in null sec.

The issue here is the size of the SPOD ore. 16m3 per unit, that is huge. Yet it only yields 0.7 trit and 0.03 pyrite per unit(16m3) WTF. Mining lasers and strip miners extract a specified m3 per cycle regardless on how many units of ore that is. Veldspar is only 0.1 m3 per unit, so for every unit of SPOD 16m3 you could mine 160 units of Veldspar. Say you are mining in a HULK or even covetor with an average yield of 1500m3 per cycle, not maxed but a good unboosted yield. That's about 94 units of SPOD per cycle @ 1408 isk/unit = $132,352 isk/cycle or 15,000 units of veldspar @ 21.8 isk/unit = $327,000isk/cycle. Why is SPOD only worth about 40% as much as the most common high sec ore that can be mined in 1.0 space in complete safety. While SPOD makes up a large portion of null sec grav sites.

Spod yields 0.7 trit per unit, Veldspar yeilds about 30 trit per unit. this translates to SPOD giving you 0.04 units of trit per m3 or 25 m3 of SPOD to get 1 unit of trit. While Veldspar is giving 300 units of trit per m3 while 25m3 of Veldspar will yield 7500 units of trit. If the amount of trit recieved from SPOD was x10 what is is now it would still only be marginally better.

Now comparing SPOD to Scordite.

SPOD yields 0.035 units of pyrite per unit of 16m3 while scordite yields 8.3 units of pyrite per unit 0.15m3. This translates to SPOD giving you 0.002 units of pyrite/m3 or 7314m3 for 1 unit of pyrite while scordite gives 55 units of pyrite/m3 or 402,285 units of pyrite for the same volume of 7314m3. Again multiplying this yeild by x10 would only marginally change the value of the ore since the yield is so small to begin with.

No let us consider what the value of SPOD would be if the amount of trit and pyrite was changed while leaving the megacyte unchanged. First multiplying the amount of both trit and pyrite by x10. This would raise the value of SPOD from 88isk/m3 to 144isk/m3. It would still be third least valuable ore still far below the value of Veldspar at 218isk/m3. What if we multiplyed the amount of trit and pyrite by x50. Well that is a little to much raising the value of SPOD to 389isk/m3 100isk/m3 more than Arkonor. What about x20. that would give SPOD a value of about 205isk/m3 still slightly lower than Veldspar and still 4th lowest value ore acording to current mineral prices, but making it a decent source of low end minerals in null sec.I think this would be a good point for it to be at. Considering that high sec ores are way higher than they should be right now. common Scordite being the second most valuable ore even over Bistot and Crokite. when the mineral prices of lowend ores drop so will the value of SPOD as we left the megacyte unchanged.

This would not be game breaking, but would make this massive ore actually worth mining in null. Currently nobody bothers with the masive SPOD rocks in null sec grav sites. This would make them a good source of low end minerals, as an alternative to mineral compression currently used to jump the huge amounts of trit and pyrite out of Jita needed to build capital ships.
Paikis
Vapour Holdings
#32 - 2012-07-14 04:18:22 UTC
Supply and demand. If you want Tritanium and Pyerite, come mine in high sec.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#33 - 2012-07-14 11:48:23 UTC
Should also create a thread called: "the day when 0.0 sec mining became pointless".

Apparently there's so much less risk mining in "everywhere blue" 0.0 than hi sec, that ABC became the new low ends.
Dave Stark
#34 - 2012-07-14 12:28:29 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Should also create a thread called: "the day when 0.0 sec mining became pointless".

Apparently there's so much less risk mining in "everywhere blue" 0.0 than hi sec, that ABC became the new low ends.


almost true, megacyte prices are keeping arkonor well above the other ores. however once you're done cherry picking arkonor from belts and grav sites mining does feel somewhat pointless in 0.0.
Lors Dornick
Kallisti Industries
#35 - 2012-07-14 12:40:14 UTC
True Sight wrote:
Pinstar Colton wrote:
My corp mined out an entire belt in .8 space last night.
I do not recall the total M3, but it yielded about 127m in isk.


How long did that take you in total? Was that gang boosted and how many miners were there? (just wondering on Isk per hour for this)


With (more or less) perfect Orca boost and Hulk skills each hisec Hulk nets 30-ish M isk/h when raiding a belt/system.
(Based on each Hulk peaking at 3042 m3/m.)

Actual net gains depend a bit on Hulks per Orca and hauling tactics.

My personal experience is that belt/system raiding works best in a +5 (ish) pilot groups, while cherry picking works better with small (or solo) gangs.

The reason being that it takes more overhead and boring fleet coordination to cherry pick with a larger group of miners.

CCP Greyscale: As to starbases, we agree it's pretty terrible, but we don't want to delay the entire release just for this one factor.

Anya Ohaya
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#36 - 2012-07-15 07:57:29 UTC
Sally Poe wrote:
when i do break out my miners im far far far to lazy to go belt to belt and cherry pick it I mostly i mostly keep a eye on local eat food bs on TS the last thing i wana do is move a handful accounts around cheery picking ill sit in a belt till its dry then move over. so i wonder though how many miners actually mine for isk/h and not just to mine for the sake of it. if only a small percent of miners are going for pyrite that would further the bottleneck


It only takes 30 seconds to look up an ore table and fit the right crystals.
Dave Stark
#37 - 2012-07-15 09:08:37 UTC
Hans Momaki wrote:
Dave stark wrote:
i mine for isk/hour, and that means not mining pyerite containing ores.


So what you say is that you can mine Ark and Merc all the time? Nice1.


mostly just ark, if i still have time to waste then yeah merc. generally though once i've picked the arkonor clean from the grav sites i log out and do some thing else.
Takahiro Tanaka
Tanaka Stuff and Supplies
#38 - 2012-07-19 16:47:27 UTC
Mara Rinn wrote:
Dave stark wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Pyerite (and all low ends, in fact) are driven by a huge lack of supply and I have no reason to believe that their massive supply issues will have changed in the three weeks since I've been able to revise my estimates.


but over the last week pyerite has gone up much faster than the other low-ends, surely them all going up is inevitable but why the sudden jump in pyerite?


corestwo is partially correct: part of the price pressure on Pyerite is due to supply: I head out into the mining belts and people are mining Kernite (because Kernite is what they've mined forever), Pyroxeres (because Pyrox has Nocxium) or other ores in preference to the one which yields the highest ISK/hr. Thus one of the basic assumptions of economics has been violated: miners are not “rational players”.
....


After talking to a bunch of miners in local I can confirm this. They keep mining Pyroxeres and if you try to educate them they call you stupid ShockedRoll
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#39 - 2012-07-20 10:39:01 UTC
Just cleared out 40M ISK worth of Scordite from belts within 4 jumps of Jita. Earlier today I cleared out about 30M ISK worth of Scordite near Dodixie.

I am in no hurry to educate the miners of New Eden. Not with Pyerite pushing 15 ISK per unit.

Just waiting for corestwo and friends to get bored of playing the market now :)
Amenotep Polo
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#40 - 2012-07-20 11:21:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Amenotep Polo
Mara Rinn wrote:
«Interesting stuff»


Would you marry me?
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