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ISK for PLEX, with a twist -- ended: all PLEX received
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Estel Again
Doomheim
#1 - 2012-06-19 13:09:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Estel Again
Edit: Confused after reading the stuff below? Read Mme Pinkerton's excellent analysis in post #12. Quote: "This is the uncollateralized loan you have been looking for!"

Dear MD,

I have briefly returned to give away 12 PLEX next month. This of course means I'll need to have 12 PLEX next month. I could do the boring thing and buy them off Jita sell orders, but I prefer a more fun way. So here's what I have in mind:

-- Simple plan --
1) I give you cash (ISK) this Friday.
2) You give me PLEX about 4 weeks later.

-- What's in it for you? --
You can use the ISK as you please:
– You can use it to trade and make more ISK, buy a PLEX near the end, and pocket the profits.
– You can use the ISK to buy a shiny ship, and give me a PLEX from your huge stockpile in 4 weeks.
– You can keep the ISK idle for 4 weeks and hope PLEX prices drop in the meantime.
(Or, if you're VV, instead of hoping you can use your magical voodoo science to divine the future prices.)
Anything you like, the choice is all yours, as long as I get a PLEX in the end.

The question then is, how much cash should I give you? This is where you come in. Let me know how many PLEX you're willing to supply (1 to 3; I need to spread my risk) and how much ISK you want per PLEX.

The lowest offers will get it, unless I decide otherwise.*
(*Let's not forget I run all the risk here; I do intend to give it to the lowest offers, but I won't give ISK to known scammers for instance.)

-- Timeline: --
– Offers should be made before 23:59 on Thursday, June 21st.
– ISK will be transferred before 23:59 on Friday, June 22nd.
– PLEX will contracted before 23:59 on Thursday, July 19th.
The contract must be a three-day (or longer) personal contract to me. Contracting the PLEX early is allowed, but the contract duration must cover Friday July 20th.
Estel Again
Doomheim
#2 - 2012-06-19 13:09:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Estel Again
PLEX:
Dezolf: 2
Privateer NoBody: 3
Aine Ni: 3
JohnathanGalt: 3*
Anton Menges Saddat: 3*


(*Bid 2, received money for 3)




BIDS

-- Best 12 win --

1 @ 400M - Dezolf (post #8)
1 @ 450M - Dezolf (post #8)
3 @ 475m - Privateer NoBody (post #31)
3 @ 475M - Aine Ni (post #40) [with collateral (post #24)]
2 @ 482M - JohnathanGalt (post #44)
2 @ 483M - Anton Menges Saddat (post #36)
-- -- partial -- --
none
-- -- outbid -- --
2 @ 484M - JohnathanGalt (post #27)
3 @ 485M - sabre906 (post #14)
2 @ 485M - Anton Menges Saddat (post #34)
2 @ 487M - Campl3r Athonille (post #28)
3 @ 488M - Vaerah Vahrokha (post #30)
3 @ 489M - MicioGatto (post #16)
3 @ 490M - Thoraemond (post #15)
2 @ 494M - Campl3r Athonille (post #21)
3 @ 494999999.99 - Johnny Frecko (post #7) [Future offers in Millions only please]
3 @ 495M - Vaerah Vahrokha (post #6)
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#3 - 2012-06-19 16:59:16 UTC
so your giving 12 plex this month, and how many plex are you asking for next month?
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#4 - 2012-06-19 17:06:07 UTC
hehe this should be intresting.
Ghanna Whynn
Kingfisher Industries
The Gentlemen's Club of EVE
#5 - 2012-06-19 17:34:17 UTC
I can supply up to three at the low low price of 600 million isk each.

If there is competition I could go down to 500 million isk each.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#6 - 2012-06-19 17:52:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Sadly, we are in an unconfirmed pattern, it will get confirmed only once price dips down and hits 475M from below and this could happen in about 1 month and half (unless price gets some unforeseen support).
Therefore it's not predictable and / or not convenient to accept this forward contract for below 495M.

If you can accept for that amount I am willing to take 6 PLEX.

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Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2012-06-19 18:11:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Johnny Frecko
i'll 0.01 isk VV for basically 3 plexes aswell..

What he says i'll 0.01 isk better to save multiple posts.

edit; unless he tries to break my superb forum bot, and i'll limit my offer to 495M :)
Dezolf
DAX Action Stance
#8 - 2012-06-19 18:18:58 UTC
I will pledge one (1) PLEX at a clean 400 million, and one (1) PLEX at 450 million, to a total of two (2) PLEXes at 850 million.
Estel Again
Doomheim
#9 - 2012-06-19 19:48:46 UTC
Kara Books wrote:
so your giving 12 plex this month, and how many plex are you asking for next month?

I'm giving away 12 PLEX next month, and need 12 PLEX next month, you know, to give away. The PLEX MD will supply me, will be given away to a former EACS user.

Ghanna Whynn wrote:
I can supply up to three at the low low price of 600 million isk each.
If there is competition I could go down to 500 million isk each.

600M is too high for me to accept sorry; 500M is more reasonable. Given your limited posting history, if you do wish to offer 3 @ 500M, I'll need 1.5B in collateral.

Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Sadly, we are in an unconfirmed pattern, it will get confirmed only once price dips down and hits 475M from below and this could happen in about 1 month and half (unless price gets some unforeseen support).
Therefore it's not predictable and / or not convenient to accept this forward contract for below 495M.

If you can accept for that amount I am willing to take 6 PLEX.

It's a shame the pattern is unconfirmed, things might be so much more interesting otherwise.
In any case, your offer of 495M is listed. 3 PLEX is the current maximum, so I hope you don't mind taking just 3; if there are not enough takers, I'll give you more.

Johnny Frecko wrote:
i'll 0.01 isk VV for basically 3 plexes aswell..

What he says i'll 0.01 isk better to save multiple posts.

I've listed you for 3 @ 494999999.99.
Future offers in Millions only please :)

Dezolf wrote:
I will pledge one (1) PLEX at a clean 400 million, and one (1) PLEX at 450 million, to a total of two (2) PLEXes at 850 million.

That's the spirit!
Sun Win
#10 - 2012-06-19 21:01:28 UTC
Can I do 1 PLEX for 520million?
Estel Again
Doomheim
#11 - 2012-06-19 21:35:07 UTC
Sun Win wrote:
Can I do 1 PLEX for 520million?

Could you explain why you'd make such an offer?

You're getting cash up front for a delivery in 4 weeks; given that you can use the cash to make some profit during those 4 weeks, I'd expect the price to be slightly lower than the expected price of PLEX in 4 weeks. Now the price might rise a bit, but surely not to 525M+ in just 4 weeks? It hasn't been above 500M in years!
Mme Pinkerton
#12 - 2012-06-19 23:04:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Mme Pinkerton
hmm... surprising lack of interest, so I'll spell things out a little:

You read Estel's original post, feel a little dizzy from trying to wrap your head around his proposal and are pretty sure that you are not interested in any form of PLEX trading. So why bother?

You should care because this is the uncollateralized loan you have been looking for!
Still looking for that 1b loan at 10% interest without collateral that nobody wants to provide? a little maths, a little fortune telling and it's all yours.

First, you have to come up with an upper limit on what you expect the price of PLEX to be in a month's time.
I don't like risk-taking, so I might choose 510m ISK (500m ISK + 10m for safety margin), you will probably disagree and choose some other target based on your preferences.

Some things you could consider when coming up with an estimate include (but are not limited to) that last year PLEX prices dropped until August (which you could probably explain with seasonal cycles in player activity), that during the last 2-3 weeks PLEX prices have slightly increased and that Inferno 1.1 will on the one hand introduce more NEX items but on the other hand allow you to buy AUR directly (without buying PLEX first).

In any case I feel that 510m is probably a very high estimate for the price of PLEX on July 19th, so I should be pretty safe using it.

If I intend to bid on two slots now, I will (at worst) have to pay back 1.02b ISK in a month and the maximal rate of interest I am willing to pay is 10%. How much can i bid?

To know that I have to solve the equation

x*2*(1+10%) = 1020

for x.

In this case I could actually bid 464m ISK per PLEX and would - if my bid is accepted - receive a 928m ISK loan at less than 10%/month for 30 days without having to provide collateral. That's pretty awesome as (at the time that I am writing this) most bids are significantly higher than that.

How low can I go? as you have probably noticed by now the answer to that depends entirely on the highest estimate I have for PLEX prices in one month from now and the interest rate I am willing to pay.

I made a small cheatsheet to illustrate the lowest acceptable bids for some combinations of interest rate and PLEX price: http://i.imgur.com/8eNz0.jpg

Apart from trying to get a nice little loan for yourself at a favorable interest rate, you can also use this table to make guesses about the expectations of other bidders.

VV bids 495m? I think it's very unlikely she would be willing to pay more than 3%/month in interest, so she probably expects PLEX prices not to rise above 510m (that number sounds familiar... maybe I should try that divination thingie, too?).
We also see that she would make a nice 3% purely passively if PLEX prices were to drop to 480m.

(edit: any feelings, assumptions or expectations I have expressed in this post are selected to be plausible but are essentially fictional in nature and used for rhetorical purposed only; you should not take them as actual predictions)

An IPO guide (David H'Levi) | Towards a Positive Argument For Investing (RAW23) | Freighter Operations 101 (Kazuo Ishiguro) | Dominion market analysis (Akita T)
Estel Again
Doomheim
#13 - 2012-06-19 23:19:39 UTC
Thank you for the clear explanation Mme Pinkerton!
sabre906
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#14 - 2012-06-20 00:49:16 UTC
3 @ 485M
Thoraemond
Far Ranger
#15 - 2012-06-20 01:40:08 UTC
I'll cover all 12, or as many as remain available, at 490 MISK.

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MicioGatto
#16 - 2012-06-20 03:29:34 UTC
12@ 489 Misk - (collateral is ready).
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#17 - 2012-06-20 04:16:40 UTC
Mme Pinkerton wrote:


VV bids 495m? I think it's very unlikely she would be willing to pay more than 3%/month in interest, so she probably expects PLEX prices not to rise above 510m (that number sounds familiar... maybe I should try that divination thingie, too?).
We also see that she would make a nice 3% purely passively if PLEX prices were to drop to 480m.


Yes, and also look at the initiative like it was a forward, not just a bond.
Estel is basically asking for a Dutch Auction on a bond that is also a forward where the investors take a short position.
This means those who need money can "lose" on the short and consider it a bond interest.
Those who don't need money (me) consider it a short where to make money on the current value - estimated future value.

All in all it's a very interesting initiative, I hope more of those will appear in the future. It might finally give MD investors an insight on what can be done once you leave the beaten path of loans and bonds.

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Sun Win
#18 - 2012-06-20 05:24:12 UTC
Estel Again wrote:
Sun Win wrote:
Can I do 1 PLEX for 520million?

Could you explain why you'd make such an offer?

You're getting cash up front for a delivery in 4 weeks; given that you can use the cash to make some profit during those 4 weeks, I'd expect the price to be slightly lower than the expected price of PLEX in 4 weeks. Now the price might rise a bit, but surely not to 525M+ in just 4 weeks? It hasn't been above 500M in years!


Sure.

I'm playing the game. You offered 12 PLEX with these extremely generous rules and at the moment I posted there weren't 12 bids yet. So I bid high but not too high, with a number that (assuming you decided I was legit/we could arrange collateral) would almost certainly guarantee me a profit unless the market did something extremely unexpected.

I figured you'd most likely either reject the offer or that I'd get outbid. But on the small chance that neither of those things happened, I'd come out of this ahead before I even started. Overall, an excellent position to play from.
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#19 - 2012-06-20 06:24:55 UTC
Sun Win wrote:
Estel Again wrote:
Sun Win wrote:
Can I do 1 PLEX for 520million?

Could you explain why you'd make such an offer?

You're getting cash up front for a delivery in 4 weeks; given that you can use the cash to make some profit during those 4 weeks, I'd expect the price to be slightly lower than the expected price of PLEX in 4 weeks. Now the price might rise a bit, but surely not to 525M+ in just 4 weeks? It hasn't been above 500M in years!


Sure.

I'm playing the game. You offered 12 PLEX with these extremely generous rules and at the moment I posted there weren't 12 bids yet. So I bid high but not too high, with a number that (assuming you decided I was legit/we could arrange collateral) would almost certainly guarantee me a profit unless the market did something extremely unexpected.

I figured you'd most likely either reject the offer or that I'd get outbid. But on the small chance that neither of those things happened, I'd come out of this ahead before I even started. Overall, an excellent position to play from.


considering there were at least 11 offers already and that the OP isn't obligated to take any and/or all of the offers, the 520 position is a terrible position to start with as it's highly unlikely that you'll get anything from it.
Estel Again
Doomheim
#20 - 2012-06-20 10:01:00 UTC
sabre906 wrote:
3 @ 485M

Listed!

Thoraemond wrote:
I'll cover all 12, or as many as remain available, at 490 MISK.

3 is the maximum. Listed you for 3 @ 490M. How many are available, we won't know until the bidding ends :)

MicioGatto wrote:
12@ 489 Misk - (collateral is ready).

3 is the maximum. Listed you for 3 @ 489M. Collateral is only necessary for obnoxious forum trolls (and other people I really don't trust).

Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Estel is basically asking for a Dutch Auction on a bond that is also a forward where the investors take a short position.

Quote of the year! (well, of the thread. So far.)

Sun Win wrote:
Sure.

I'm playing the game.

This is not a game; Internet Spaceship Money is Serious Business!
This is a business transaction: I want cheap PLEX, other people want cold, hard cash. The 4-week delay in delivery assures everyone can get what they want.
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