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Low-sec -> low-sec escalation possible ?
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Lt Cormac Mortimas
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#1 - 2012-06-17 18:51:00 UTC
Hi guys,

I've been searching high and low, but can't seem to find an answer.

I've hit a lot (maybe 25-30) sites over the last week in low-sec space using both 4+ probes and the ships scanner, to find cosmic combat sites. However, I have never seen a single site escalate so far.

Now my question is, do low-sec cosmic sites ONLY escalate to null-sec ? And if so, does null-sec have to be within 5 (or X number) jumps from the combat site ?

The reason being is where I farm these sites is in a 'dead-end' low-sec system. It's about 6 jumps to high-sec, and 10+ jumps to null-sec.

Does anyone have any insight / proof that I'm just really unlucky ?

Ta,
Zhilia Mann
Tide Way Out Productions
#2 - 2012-06-17 19:14:59 UTC
Not all sites escalate. The most common ones are unrated plexes. Depending on which you're talking about, they often have multi-step escalation chains with only the last one in null. I've traveled over 50 jumps chasing them before, so range to null doesn't matter all that much.
Lt Cormac Mortimas
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#3 - 2012-06-17 19:48:18 UTC
It's good to know that the range doesn't matter. However I run most probe scanned / ship scanned sites with a buddy in fleet. Do you know whether that would have an impact on the chance to escalate ?

I've read somewhere that the first site is the hardest to escalate ~50% (subsequent ones being ~80% chance to escalate), but lets call it 10% (!!) for the sake of argument. Running 25 sites at 10% chance of escalation, and not receiving a single one is in <10% chance (in total). Perhaps we're just really _really_ unlucky.

It would be good to know from someone who runs a lot of combat sites what they would consider a sensible first complex escalation percentage should be.

And, yes, does doing in a fleet matter too ?
Zhilia Mann
Tide Way Out Productions
#4 - 2012-06-17 20:16:59 UTC
Unrated plexes (Annex, etc.) probably have a ~50% chance to escalate (in my experience it's a bit lower). Cosmic anomolies are much, much lower (maybe 5%?). Rated sites and professional sites never escalate. So depending on your mix, this isn't unusual at all. The only sites that almost always escalate are the pseudo-rated sites that stand in for non-existent rated sites.

So yeah, depending on the space you're in, keep at it. It will happen eventually but never count on escalations as a vaguely reliable thing, especially from anomolies (which are the ones you can scan with the ship scanner).
Lt Cormac Mortimas
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#5 - 2012-06-17 20:29:28 UTC
Awesome, good to know. Thanks for the rough percentages.

Probes = more escalations than ship scanners.

Time to crack out the Buzzard again. Sods law the next site I get will escalate. I'm feeling so lucky now, I might just start blinking again ;)
Mnemosyne Gloob
#6 - 2012-06-18 07:37:01 UTC
It sounds like you are doing anomalies ... the chance for those to escalate is really, really low. Not sure if there can be an expedition lowsec-lowsec from those.

The only unrated site that stays in low is the easiest one, called "Provisional XXX Outpost", all others end up in nullsec (i think). I have heard people say that they've had for instance an expedition from an Minor Annex end up in lowsec, rather than null, but i have not seen that myself.

And yes, you can end up having to travel a lot of jumps if every step goes 10+ jumps :D.
Tomcio FromFarAway
Singularity's Edge
#7 - 2012-06-18 16:21:14 UTC
Mnemosyne Gloob wrote:
all others end up in nullsec (i think). I have heard people say that they've had for instance an expedition from an Minor Annex end up in lowsec, rather than null, but i have not seen that myself.


Confirming that Minor Annex can indeed end in low-sec ( I got that few days ago, but only once so the chances of that happening are very low ). I assume that Outpost also might conform to the same mechanics ( lower level site so it would be logical ). Annex always escalated to null for me and taking into consideration that you get Battleship class mods from it I assume that it always does.

@OP

Are you doing Cosmic Anomalies ( found by ship scanner OR probes ) or Cosmic Signatures ( found only by probes )?

Cosmic signature - unrated sites In all pirate spaces ( only those can escalate ):
Provisional Outpost
Outpost
Minor Annex
Annex

As far as chances goes I would say that I got escalation every 2-3 sites ( of the same type ). Outpost rarely escalated ( I never had final step ), Minor Annex has solid escalation chance from my experience ( I got full escalation many times ). Annex seems to have the very high chances of full escalation but this site is quite rare.