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EVE IN DECLINE -- GRAPHS

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Bunnie Hop
Bunny Knights
#121 - 2012-06-01 15:35:25 UTC
Eve numbers are like the economy. The actions of today will not be reflected until a period of time has passed. I would guess in 3 months time we will see if there are any adverse reactions to subscription numbers, until then we can argue back and forth to no avail.
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Operations
#122 - 2012-06-01 15:36:08 UTC  |  Edited by: ISD Tyrozan
bongsmoke wrote:
Don't worry, doomsday is december 21st.....it's coming..


Look, we made enough of a scene yesterday. Please, don't post like -----edit----- this time.

[i]Inappropriate words deleted | ISD Tyrozan CCL/i]

***
Cutter Isaacson
DEDSEC SAN FRANCISCO
#123 - 2012-06-01 15:36:39 UTC
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor wrote:
Cutter Isaacson wrote:

2011-04-17 37,008
2011-05-30 33,511

2012-04-07 35,815
2012-05-20 29,976

And as you can see, year on year numbers continue to grow.




Um....both of those are LOWER from 2011 to 2012.

wow.


Look, troll, try quoting someone in their entirety. I clearly stated that there are always mitigating factors. It so happens that after 12 years of development Blizzard released Diablo 3, you only have to look around these very forums to see a large number of EVE players also went off to play that game. Your trolling is pathetic, you don't even put any effort in. 0/10.

"The truth is usually just an excuse for a lack of imagination." Elim Garak.
bongsmoke
Visine Red
420 Chronicles of EvE
#124 - 2012-06-01 15:37:08 UTC
Logins does not = subs....

Hard concept to understand, I know.
Cutter Isaacson
DEDSEC SAN FRANCISCO
#125 - 2012-06-01 15:39:53 UTC
bongsmoke wrote:
Logins does not = subs....

Hard concept to understand, I know.


Dude, some of these people probably couldn't find their own backsides without 4 pairs of hands, two Sherpa's and a map. Don't expect them to understand such complex things as subs and login numbers.

"The truth is usually just an excuse for a lack of imagination." Elim Garak.
silens vesica
Corsair Cartel
#126 - 2012-06-01 15:46:38 UTC
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor wrote:
silens vesica wrote:
Considering that the very first graph shows spikes over 40K - in the last 24 hours - it doesn't really matter if you failed to correctly determine the time axis: You Fail, regardless.



That's not a Spike Roll.

It's Peaks at just BARELY over 40,000. Like 40,098. Still not the 53,000 that was almost daily at this time and weekday back in early April.

Eh.
I said over 40K, and you even admit it's over 40K and since there are two such events briefly with the 24 hour span, I'll stand by 'spike', even if I'm pushing the point just a little bit.

While you're entirely correct that April had much higher concurrent login levels in places, I'm not addressing April, am I? I'm addressing the OP's assertion - which was very clearly a Fail.

Tell someone you love them today, because life is short. But scream it at them in Esperanto, because life is also terrifying and confusing.

Didn't vote? Then you voted for NulBloc
Gul'gotha Derv'ash
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#127 - 2012-06-01 15:47:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Gul'gotha Derv'ash
Torvin Yulus wrote:
http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility

As u can see theyre is a trend DOWNWARD. At the start of the graph there is 30,000 players and at the end of the graph ere is 12,000.

CCP must fix mining and end hyulkageddon because eve has lost over half its subscribers!



Lol from the looks of it, Eve is still hurting from the Incarna expansion.

Sad that Inferno was nothing more than a few graphical upgrades and tweaks to certain mechanics as well, and not really an expansion in my opinion.



New ships, new content, and large scale graphic updates = expansions

UI "improvement" (if you can call it that), FW/Incursion tweaks, ship re-balancing, and shiny missiles = a regular patch
tiberiusric
Comply Or Die
Pandemic Horde
#128 - 2012-06-01 15:49:30 UTC
the simple fact is in the past 2 years at least despite all the new content, the figures have stayed pretty much the same.....

The game is probably losing more newer players than older players... the problem is the game is now saturated. The one universe is no longer viable. Create more shards and give every other player the same chance. The problem is new players do not have the same chances as older players did.

All my views are my own - never be afraid to post with your main, unless you're going to post some dumb shit
Cutter Isaacson
DEDSEC SAN FRANCISCO
#129 - 2012-06-01 15:50:28 UTC
silens vesica wrote:
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor wrote:
silens vesica wrote:
Considering that the very first graph shows spikes over 40K - in the last 24 hours - it doesn't really matter if you failed to correctly determine the time axis: You Fail, regardless.



That's not a Spike Roll.

It's Peaks at just BARELY over 40,000. Like 40,098. Still not the 53,000 that was almost daily at this time and weekday back in early April.

Eh.
I said over 40K, and you even admit it's over 40K and since there are two such events briefly with the 24 hour span, I'll stand by 'spike', even if I'm pushing the point just a little bit.

While you're entirely correct that April had much higher concurrent login levels in places, I'm not addressing April, am I? I'm addressing the OP's assertion - which was very clearly a Fail.


It seems that people have trouble staying focused on one particular thing. When it becomes clear that their argument is flawed, they shift the topic to something else so as to deflect people's attention away from their gigantic screw up.

"The truth is usually just an excuse for a lack of imagination." Elim Garak.
Cutter Isaacson
DEDSEC SAN FRANCISCO
#130 - 2012-06-01 15:54:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Cutter Isaacson
tiberiusric wrote:
the simple fact is in the past 2 years at least despite all the new content, the figures have stayed pretty much the same.....

The game is probably losing more newer players than older players... the problem is the game is now saturated. The one universe is no longer viable. Create more shards and give every other player the same chance. The problem is new players do not have the same chances as older players did.


New shards will never happen, ever. CCP is, undeniably, still recovering from the massive hit it took from the Incarna debacle. They have already admitted to their mistake and numbers will continue to increase in line with player satisfaction. This slump has most likely been exacerbated by 3 main factors.

One, the release of certain other games in to Beta, or their release on to the general market. Two, the slightly lacklustre Inferno expansion. Three, the mass expulsion of bots that has been taking place. Yes, those are guesses, but they are educated ones based on all available and relevant information both current and historical. CCP is slowly regaining the trust of its playerbase, and with the imminent release of DUST514 there will undoubtedly be another upsurge in both subs and player logins.

"The truth is usually just an excuse for a lack of imagination." Elim Garak.
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Operations
#131 - 2012-06-01 15:54:43 UTC
silens vesica wrote:
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor wrote:
silens vesica wrote:
Considering that the very first graph shows spikes over 40K - in the last 24 hours - it doesn't really matter if you failed to correctly determine the time axis: You Fail, regardless.



That's not a Spike Roll.

It's Peaks at just BARELY over 40,000. Like 40,098. Still not the 53,000 that was almost daily at this time and weekday back in early April.

Eh.
I said over 40K, and you even admit it's over 40K and since there are two such events briefly with the 24 hour span, I'll stand by 'spike', even if I'm pushing the point just a little bit.

While you're entirely correct that April had much higher concurrent login levels in places, I'm not addressing April, am I? I'm addressing the OP's assertion - which was very clearly a Fail.


OK. I will be mean and point out that if you are still harping on the OP, THAT was cleared up on Page 2. Do keep up.

***
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#132 - 2012-06-01 15:55:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Ranger 1
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor wrote:
Cutter Isaacson wrote:
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor wrote:
Cutter Isaacson wrote:

2011-04-17 37,008
2011-05-30 33,511

2012-04-07 35,815
2012-05-20 29,976

And as you can see, year on year numbers continue to grow.




Um....both of those are LOWER from 2011 to 2012.

wow.


Look, troll, try quoting someone in their entirety. I clearly stated that there are always mitigating factors. It so happens that after 12 years of development Blizzard released Diablo 3, you only have to look around these very forums to see a large number of EVE players also went off to play that game. Your trolling is pathetic, you don't even put any effort in. 0/10.



Nope. Just watching someone defend......I'm not really sure what.

Besides, YOU posted numbers clearly indicating a downward trend then inserted the idiotic statement to the contrary. THAT'S Trolling.


One can twist math and numbers to mean ANYTHING. And I mean anything.


Of course you can, that is the nature of statistics. Makes this whole thread pretty irrelevant.

For clarity though, we all know that D3 was released and the current daily war on botting is banning thousands of accounts (high activity accounts) every month. These facts are comletely relevant.

What is not relevant is the assumption that daily activity is a more important metric than the current number of active subscriptions. Lower peak activitiy levels could just as easily mean that the user base is gradually becoming more equally distributed between the various time zones.

CCP has released subscription numbers from time to time, and they have yet to show a downward trend on an annual basis... at worst they have shown a temporary downward trend directly after an unsuccessful expansion which reverses itself after a couple of months.

EVE's steady growth is the envy of the gaming industry. Most companies lay out huge amounts of money for the development and release of a new game and are completely dependent on a huge initial success to recoup that expense. They then milk it as long as they can while plotting the next big game release that will (hopefully) keep them going through the next cycle.

CCP doesn't need to worry about that vicious cycle. Of course, like any game company they have their ups and downs, but by and large they have remained steadily profitable and enjoyed fairly dependable growth. If they can avoid over extending themselves again on new projects (which will ulitimately make them even more profitable) they should have little to worry about.

TL;DR: There isn't much to worry about until we see a steady, long term decline in actual subscription numbers.

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.
Velicitia
XS Tech
#133 - 2012-06-01 15:55:05 UTC
tiberiusric wrote:
the simple fact is in the past 2 years at least despite all the new content, the figures have stayed pretty much the same.....

The game is probably losing more newer players than older players... the problem is the game is now saturated. The one universe is no longer viable. Create more shards and give every other player the same chance. The problem is new players do not have the same chances as older players did.



Make multiple shards, and you lose part of what makes EVE...

TBH, the issue isn't so much "the game is saturated" as "hisec is saturated". You can still find decent pockets of lowsec to roam around in (although, supers Sad). I don't disagree though that maybe new regions (primarily lowsec/nullsec) could be in order. F&I was kicking around a few ideas about 'deepspace' a few months back ...

One of the bitter points of a good bittervet is the realisation that all those SP don't really do much, and that the newbie is having much more fun with what little he has. - Tippia
Cutter Isaacson
DEDSEC SAN FRANCISCO
#134 - 2012-06-01 15:57:25 UTC
Ranger 1 wrote:
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor wrote:
Cutter Isaacson wrote:
Quartzlight Evenstar Icefluxor wrote:
Cutter Isaacson wrote:

2011-04-17 37,008
2011-05-30 33,511

2012-04-07 35,815
2012-05-20 29,976

And as you can see, year on year numbers continue to grow.




Um....both of those are LOWER from 2011 to 2012.

wow.


Look, troll, try quoting someone in their entirety. I clearly stated that there are always mitigating factors. It so happens that after 12 years of development Blizzard released Diablo 3, you only have to look around these very forums to see a large number of EVE players also went off to play that game. Your trolling is pathetic, you don't even put any effort in. 0/10.



Nope. Just watching someone defend......I'm not really sure what.

Besides, YOU posted numbers clearly indicating a downward trend then inserted the idiotic statement to the contrary. THAT'S Trolling.


One can twist math and numbers to mean ANYTHING. And I mean anything.


Of course you can, that is the nature of statistics. Makes this whole thread pretty irrelevant.

For clarity though, we all know that D3 was released and the current daily war on botting is banning thousands of accounts (high activity accounts) every month. These facts are comletely relevent.

What is not relevent is the assumption that daily activity is a more important metric than the current number of active subscriptions. Lower peak activitiy levels could just as easily mean that the user base is gradually becoming more equally distributed between the various time zones.

CCP has released subscription numbers from time to time, and they have yet to show a downward trend on an annual basis... at worst they have shown a temporary downward trend directly after an unsuccessful expansion which reverses itself after a couple of months.

EVE's steady growth is the envy of the gaming industry. Most companies lay out huge amounts of money for the development and release of a new game and are completely dependent on a huge initial success to recoup that expense. They then milk it as long as they can while plotting the next big game release that will (hopefully) keep them going through the next cycle.

CCP doesn't need to worry about that vicious cycle. Of course, like any game company they have their ups and downs, but by and large they have remained steadily profitable and enjoyed fairly dependable growth. If they can avoid over extending themselves again on new projects (which will ulitimately make them even more profitable) they should have little to worry about.

TL;DR: There isn't much to worry about until we see a steady, long term decline in actual subscription numbers.


Very succinctly put Ranger. It would be interesting to see the actual statistics regarding current unique subscription numbers, and be able to compare those to the same time periods over the last 4 years.

"The truth is usually just an excuse for a lack of imagination." Elim Garak.
Marlona Sky
State War Academy
Caldari State
#135 - 2012-06-01 15:59:50 UTC
I would rather see 10 subscribers who actually log into the game and play, then 100 subscribers who do not log in to play. Don't you agree?
Cutter Isaacson
DEDSEC SAN FRANCISCO
#136 - 2012-06-01 16:04:37 UTC
Marlona Sky wrote:
I would rather see 10 subscribers who actually log into the game and play, then 100 subscribers who do not log in to play. Don't you agree?



Er, no. Less subs, less money, less staff, less EVE.

"The truth is usually just an excuse for a lack of imagination." Elim Garak.
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#137 - 2012-06-01 16:14:04 UTC
I also sometimes wonder if another factor we should look at is that the resources to run the EVE client have increased somewhat over the last couple of expansions.

If subs have stayed relatively the same or continued to increase, while daily peaks and averages are trending downward slightly, that would seem to suggest that people who run multiple accounts may be having difficulty keeping all of those accounts running simultaneously on their machines. Apparently they still find those extra accounts useful, but can't fire them all up at the same time as easily as they used to.

If this is a factor it is likely a minor one, but worth adding into the analysis.

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.
Josef Djugashvilis
#138 - 2012-06-01 17:15:45 UTC
Marlona Sky wrote:
I would rather see 10 subscribers who actually log into the game and play, then 100 subscribers who do not log in to play. Don't you agree?


If I had to choose, I would go for 100 subscribers who do not play in order that CCP can afford to keep Eve going, so that the 10 players who do log in actually have a game to log in to.

This is not a signature.
Lin-Young Borovskova
Doomheim
#139 - 2012-06-01 17:17:14 UTC
Akirei Scytale wrote:
Darth Tickles wrote:
As funny as these threads are, who the **** makes backwards graphs?

seriously...


backwards? it is constantly updated. "0 days ago" is properly on the origin.

also, OP, l2graph.


This Lol

brb
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#140 - 2012-06-01 17:17:30 UTC  |  Edited by: baltec1
tiberiusric wrote:
the simple fact is in the past 2 years at least despite all the new content, the figures have stayed pretty much the same.....

The game is probably losing more newer players than older players... the problem is the game is now saturated. The one universe is no longer viable. Create more shards and give every other player the same chance. The problem is new players do not have the same chances as older players did.


Only if you ignore the extra 50k in subs.

Also a guy in a rifter can tackle a 100 billion isk battleship, nubs have exactly the same chances as I did over 6 years ago.