Market Discussions

you see, i predicted exactly what would happen, if you ignore half my coin-flip predictions

So, new estimated tech prices:
- at an absolute absurd minimum around 50k (based on "everything I get myself is almost free and my time is barely worth anything" calcs),
- close to maximum around 90k (ingredients at halfway decent value and also plenty of alchemy reaction profitability to make wide adoption likely),
- most likely settling somewhere around 75k-85k before any further changes, a bit higher than the midpoint based on the idea that volume demand for T2 items will also pick up due to lowered prices

Let's call that tech going down to about 80k per unit soon.
That's a nice value, lower than its value for most of this year so far, but not by much.
Closer to the situation about a year and a half, maybe two years ago.
Decent enough, for now, I guess.

Price is already down to 56k p/u .... massive dumps since the latest announcement. Whether this is the bottom or not remains to be seen, but i imagine there are massive stockpiles and people are getting nervous. We're definetly going to be in for a wild ride and there will be plenty of profit to be made for those brave enough.

Panic fluctuations are quite understandable, no doubt. I fully expect to see several heavy ups and downs until it settles eventually.

Cobalt itself is nearly worthless. The inflated prices are only due to speculation. There are about 1200 cobalt moons, which is more than enough to drive down prices if people decide they are high enough to warrant mining those moons.

Since we've been discussing them, obviously not. But you have to go more than the first page to see it.


Possibly, but not guaranteed. At a 10:1 replacement ratio, the most valuable combos would be those closer to hubs or platinum moons (one plat moon for 10 cobalt ones though, in the long run, but with some heavy starting buffer needed), which somewhat restricts the range of interesting cobalt moons. So, while the current price of cobalt might indeed be unsustainable, to call it completely worthless is a bit of an exaggeration. Although, granted, its price will most likely only influence tech price by probably 5k-10k tops.

Also, it's not like tech alchemy is a no-effort thing.
Alchemy is a pain in the ass due to the need to ship the stuff to a station to refine it (anything else would be madness), so that also reduces the range of "useful" moons.


The ice stuff part, possibly, due to more survivable barges. But the PI parts, not so much. In fact, those might actually end up going up quite a bit.
So, I'm not so sure the fuel prices will see such a steep decline - some decline almost certainly, but how drastic, too early to tell.

Plus, again, alchemy is not a low-effort thing, due to the annoyances it presents. Alchemy reaction operators will probably expect better profits than regular reaction operators, and that also adds to the likely price of tech.

...

Of course, that still does translate into a heavy tech price drop. But again, just how "heavy", too early to wager on.
Anything between 50k to 90k is within the realm of "likely", and even more extreme values could be possible.
And that's before any further changes to T2 production, which are coming too, eventually, very likely dropping it even further when they eventually get announced.
But that's just long-term equilibrium we're talking about.
Until the change actually goes live, the price of tech could see some heavy-duty fluctuations in both directions. Could drop below 40k temporarily, or could even rise back over 100k briefly. Short-term fluctuations is nothing I could possibly tell anything about, and VV's so-called-by-some "voodoo" is actually better suited for such short-term estimates (obviously not 100% accurate, but better than gut feeling guesses anyway).

In an environment prone to rapid speculative swings I'd have to imagine that VV's voodoo is worse than useless. But I'm not a practitioner, so what do I know.

Weekly charts to get trend direction and daily charts for trade entries in that direction.
If there's a weekly pin bar then you have a maximum delay of 6 days before price reacts accordingly (average is 2-3 days).

The above assuming using the WPD-WPG method, which is just one of the 3 (4 in the future) that is used. The 2nd method is called "Daily" and I leave to you to guess what time frame it caters to.