Market Discussions

I should also add that I was personally "manipulating" the price of tech downwards during the latest downturn, so where one "manipulation" stops and another begins is always questionable, and how much the long term price is really affected by any "manipulation" even more so.

If I feel up to it, I will go back through your posts and make a collage for everyone.

The point is because of your systemic bias (as in the bias of your system or your desire to implement your system), every time the price makes a significant increase, you assume that it is based on manipulation and not fundamentals. You then apply your "system", which invariably tells you that at some point, because you have assumed that it is a manipulation, it will go back down. However, over and over and over most of these increases have stuck because they are based on fundamental changes in supply and/or demand. You then repeat this process the next time, without any reference to the ten or so times you have done this before.

This confirmation bias is based on your repeated misapplication of a system with limited applicability. This repeated misapplication is, in turn, based on your psychological need to be part of the super secret cult of the all seeing eye (super secret decoder ring costs extra).

Hey, when the big day inevitably comes, nobody wants to be drinking that punch alone.

While I don't really trade a lot in EvE (I do it for didactic purposes) I do it in RL.

It seems funny that I can keep spamming "predictions" (they are not, they are price action reading) about RL trading like right today but EvE has to be so impossible.

I mean, I challenge most of the experts in this forum to succeed in RL trading, where from 91 to 95% of the retail traders always lose money (edit: references) and to post their RL trades like I am doing now.

RL trading difficulty is so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> EvE that it's a joke just to pretend to think otherwise.
The only challenge for a RL trader playing EvE markets are the market makers. Those can flip price against its own course and this is why I don't like to deal in Technetium but I stick to trit, pyerite, isotopes. Go manipulate those for 30% of their value in a day.

Again, completely missing the fundamental, and ten times repeated, point.

You are misapplying a toolkit here; one which I have, also multiple times, said is valid in certain situations, just not here.

The reason you do this is because you are just so in love with it and yourself for learning it, that you walk around with your hammer seeing nails everywhere. We are discussing your awful track record at analyzing the tech market, nothing more.

I am honestly happy for you that you have something that you enjoy doing, you do well, and you make money from. On a fundamentally human level, it's hard to not be happy for someone in that position. However, that has nothing to do with the discussion of applicability.

I'll add a sidebar to this discussion of applicability: the perverted rules of Eve markets is precisely what makes them fun for me. Take everything you know about a subject, then change one or two fundamental rules. It appears the same on the surface, but when you engage the fundamental mechanics you find that all your old techniques, practices, tricks, etc don't quite work like they did before. That is precisely why playing in the Eve market is an interesting way to occupy those little five minutes in your day, and is precisely not a job.

this is a textbook case of making tons of predictions and only remembering the ones that come true

Sadly in RL you can't "remember the ones that come true" because either you are right about 70-80% of the trades or you are chewed by the markets and then spit in many little dices.

"If you sit by the river long enough, you will see the body of your enemy float by"

... and the corpse passed...

If only the downtrend had started right there. Oh wait, it did.

Only thing that came somewhat unexpected is how weak the market was. I'd expect a double top, it did not even manage to do that.