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Mineral consumption - Bubble over?
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#21 - 2012-05-06 14:29:51 UTC
T2 hulls hardly matter, since the only mineral component in them is the requisite T1 hull. Few of them add any other minerals to the build (aside from morphite) and the ones that do are ultimately negligible simply because of the small volume of T2. 20 (to pull a number out of thin air) Lachesis per day using 24 megacyte each is frankly a rounding error for this kind of calculation.


I'd be more concerned about your missing hull classes and how bad your estimate for what kind of battleships were built is.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
#22 - 2012-05-06 14:57:36 UTC
Per request; Maelstroms built Dec 2011: 7,093, Jan 2012: 7,478.


62.99 battleships built per hour on average in 2011; of which 2.39 were T2.
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
#23 - 2012-05-07 07:53:47 UTC
Finally the Mittani himself revealed that goons are actively involved in mineral market speculations: "Goonswarm sank almost a trillion isk into minerals before the Escalation patch" and "Instead of driving up mineral prices, we drove trade itself to a halt, a 40% reduction in overall volume over the previous weekend, inspiring panic-sales of minerals from desperate traders (which we bought up)".

As CCP already said, the bubble is nothing more than speculation. Even Hulkageddon is not able to stop the drop of mineral prices because at present it has nothing to do with real consumption and production of minerals. However, Hulkageddon works, you can see that in the meantime isotope prices are rising during Hulkageddon.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#24 - 2012-05-07 10:21:34 UTC
lafforet wrote:
Finally the Mittani himself revealed that goons are actively involved in mineral market speculations: "Goonswarm sank almost a trillion isk into minerals before the Escalation patch" and "Instead of driving up mineral prices, we drove trade itself to a halt, a 40% reduction in overall volume over the previous weekend, inspiring panic-sales of minerals from desperate traders (which we bought up)".

As CCP already said, the bubble is nothing more than speculation. Even Hulkageddon is not able to stop the drop of mineral prices because at present it has nothing to do with real consumption and production of minerals. However, Hulkageddon works, you can see that in the meantime isotope prices are rising during Hulkageddon.


It's not just bubble, it's market making. The bubble is what they sell to clueless traders who can't read a price and they all eat the bait.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Tanya Powers
Doomheim
#25 - 2012-05-07 11:02:37 UTC
Don't act like monkeys looking for instant peanuts Lol

Minerals WILL go up anyway, at slower rate than immediate post inferno due to speculation, but minerals price will go up unless CCP introduces those by some mean (witch I don't believe) or someone with excellent abilities with programming can make pop minerals out of nowhere at each time he logs in.

No, if you take away the cheating factor from CCP (cheaters!!) or players (saints), with only reprocessed mods and mined minerals at some point (soon) the demand will become interesting.
clixor
Celluloid Gurus
#26 - 2012-05-07 12:13:10 UTC
(Temporary) bubble or not. Consumption should remain fairly stable as manufacturers just adjust their prices according to the current prices.

After HG and say a month for the situation to stabilize we should have more info about supply and demand.

Combined with the summer drought and CCP's marketing targetting PVP oriented players CCP wil have no choice to interfere at some point because, well, you can't spawn miners from thin air.
Kris Longknife
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#27 - 2012-05-07 15:36:13 UTC
clixor wrote:
(Temporary) bubble or not. Consumption should remain fairly stable as manufacturers just adjust their prices according to the current prices.

After HG and say a month for the situation to stabilize we should have more info about supply and demand.

Combined with the summer drought and CCP's marketing targetting PVP oriented players CCP wil have no choice to interfere at some point because, well, you can't spawn miners from thin air.



No but you can spawn more hauler spawns.

Dirk Smacker
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#28 - 2012-05-07 16:24:10 UTC
Wasn't the bubble an overshoot of where the new normal will be as a result of the drone changes?

I think prices overshot hard because of the demand leading up to Burn Jita, and Incursions hadn't been nerfed yet elevating money supply. If HGV is having an impact, it is getting negated by null miners producing more.

I guess once you have a signature, you cannot have a blank one.
Pinstar Colton
Sweet Asteroid Acres
#29 - 2012-05-07 17:03:33 UTC
No need to spawn miners or let bots operate with a blind eye. Rising mineral prices attracts miners.

The fact that mining is so boring is a barrier to entry of sorts. As long as that barrier exists, real miners will prosper. CCP will ban the bots, and gankers will punish the afk miners. The only ones left are the non-afk miners who are savy enough to dodge the gankers.

As mineral prices rise, the profession of mining will become more attractive to more players, until prices stabilize.

In the cat-and-mouse game that is low sec, there is no shame in learning to be a better mouse.

Caecilia Arene
Doomheim
#30 - 2012-05-07 17:17:15 UTC
For the last 1-2 weeks there seems to be rather strong downward pressure on mineral prices. Even trit is has slid below 6. Either aggregate demand is down or people are profit taking and dumping some of their stockpiles on the market. Possibly even a little panic is setting in too...

Supply has to have been reduced somewhat since quite a few minerals came from drone regions and meta 0 reprocessing (assuming actual mining activities in 0.0, low and high sec have remained relatively constant).
Yroc Jannseen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#31 - 2012-05-07 17:26:40 UTC
Kris Longknife wrote:
clixor wrote:
(Temporary) bubble or not. Consumption should remain fairly stable as manufacturers just adjust their prices according to the current prices.

After HG and say a month for the situation to stabilize we should have more info about supply and demand.

Combined with the summer drought and CCP's marketing targetting PVP oriented players CCP wil have no choice to interfere at some point because, well, you can't spawn miners from thin air.



No but you can spawn more hauler spawns.


May be some truth to this. I've gotten three hauler spawns in two days. Two of them back to back in the same belt. 50m trit and about 5m mixed Mex pye and iso. Lot better than using strips to mine.
Kris Longknife
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#32 - 2012-05-07 17:57:12 UTC
Yroc Jannseen wrote:
Kris Longknife wrote:
[quote=clixor](


No but you can spawn more hauler spawns.


May be some truth to this. I've gotten three hauler spawns in two days. Two of them back to back in the same belt. 50m trit and about 5m mixed Mex pye and iso. Lot better than using strips to mine.



yeah I know, I took a year break from EVE and only just came back. I don't remember hauler spawns being this prevelent.

I have brought in 300 million trit in the last 2 weeks with smaller amounts of other bulky minerals like pyerite and mex.

I wonder is there any CCP math on Hauler spawns or am I just lucky?
Adunh Slavy
#33 - 2012-05-07 19:50:41 UTC
Panic more please.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Soldarius
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#34 - 2012-05-08 04:07:57 UTC
I've noticed larger quantities of minerals getting dumped to buy orders in the last week or so. So prices have been getting pushed down due to profit-taking. I've also noticed an apparent increase in hauler spawns. One of our guys got 4 of them inside an hour in one system right before DT. We literally didn't have enough hauling capacity to get it all before DT hit and the containers despawned.

http://youtu.be/YVkUvmDQ3HY
Packtu'sa
Nabaal Construction and Industrials Corp
Nabaal Syndicate
#35 - 2012-05-08 04:41:29 UTC
Kris Longknife wrote:
I wonder is there any CCP math on Hauler spawns or am I just lucky?

It wouldn't surprise me if they temporarily bumped up hauler spawns to settle the market, but until we get more data it's tough to draw any hard conclusions.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#36 - 2012-05-08 04:44:40 UTC
yeah that's what's known as "a stretch"

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Packtu'sa
Nabaal Construction and Industrials Corp
Nabaal Syndicate
#37 - 2012-05-08 04:58:21 UTC
corestwo wrote:
yeah that's what's known as "a stretch"

Certainly. Let's assume for a moment that they did; would it even do much to suppress mineral prices for long? Isn't the idea to increase mineral production from mining?
Aina Sasaki
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#38 - 2012-05-08 07:21:05 UTC
Caecilia Arene wrote:
For the last 1-2 weeks there seems to be rather strong downward pressure on mineral prices. Even trit is has slid below 6. Either aggregate demand is down or people are profit taking and dumping some of their stockpiles on the market. Possibly even a little panic is setting in too...

Supply has to have been reduced somewhat since quite a few minerals came from drone regions and meta 0 reprocessing (assuming actual mining activities in 0.0, low and high sec have remained relatively constant).


I think it's dumping, and perhaps a little panic due to how fast prices are falling. Prices are probably going to rise back again in a few weeks or so once the stockpiles start to dry up.

- Rei
papamike
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#39 - 2012-05-08 08:08:43 UTC
Aina Sasaki wrote:
Caecilia Arene wrote:
For the last 1-2 weeks there seems to be rather strong downward pressure on mineral prices. Even trit is has slid below 6. Either aggregate demand is down or people are profit taking and dumping some of their stockpiles on the market. Possibly even a little panic is setting in too...

Supply has to have been reduced somewhat since quite a few minerals came from drone regions and meta 0 reprocessing (assuming actual mining activities in 0.0, low and high sec have remained relatively constant).


I think it's dumping, and perhaps a little panic due to how fast prices are falling. Prices are probably going to rise back again in a few Months or so once the stockpiles start to dry up.


Bolded the correction there.

My understanding is that some speculators are thinking short term and are dumping their stocks now. Others are holding onto them and will trickle feed the market for months to come. Some stockpiles are huge btw.

Then again, dont listen to me- I thought Morphite was going to settle around the 25k market and look at it now Sad
clixor
Celluloid Gurus
#40 - 2012-05-08 09:46:56 UTC
Let's omg panic wtf a bit more shall we Lol

Looking at what was supplied by droneregions (and their bots) and meta0 there is simply no way miners or hauler spawns can compensate. Only the fact that (if) CCP would adjust spawn rate is already suggesting they are aware of the inbalance between supply and demand.

New miners? Where are they going to come from? It's not exactly potential players before joining doing an evaluation of the economy and going to mine just because it make mad profitz (hiphop yo!). And added to that, i think we here in MD overestimate players desire to maximum income generation. Bottom line, mining is boring, and the majority of players won't mine, ever.

For what they are worth, if we take Yuki's calculations as a baseline, [panic incoming] personally i can't see empire dwellers making up for the huge shortages. Null will become more selfreliant but those mins will likely never see highsec ever.