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Why is meta-4 taking a dive?
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Linda Shadowborn
Dark Steel Industries
#41 - 2012-05-13 23:51:56 UTC
Ocih wrote:
For several months now it has been cheaper, far and away to fit Meta 4 over T2.

A mega Pulse Meta 0 costs1.2 mill
T2 Mega pulse is 4.5 mill

Meta 4 Mega Modulated cost 930K to buy and there is no shortage of them.
Conflag and Navy Multifreq both have 50% range penalty. Conflag has a .7 tracking penalty, Navy does not.

30.8 EM/ Therm 55.4 and 32.3 Shield and armor base on the conflag and

32.2 em, 23 therm with 50.6 and 27.8 on the Navy. For the low damage multipliers of Amarr, the dps loss is compensated for with the additional tracking. The point being, once people start to put the math to paper we will see alot more loot fits on the field.

The only exception will be blaster fits because T2 Blaster ammo has 25% range penalty where Navy antimatter has 50%.


Yes lets ignore that T2 do more damage and that the long range t2 ammo is really sweet in many cases, (barrage and scorch are just pure win). And of course since you dont have to use the t2 ammo.. i dont see why we would ever use meta 4 over t2 if we can use t2.
Karsa Egivand
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#42 - 2012-05-14 05:24:33 UTC
Fitting req.?

Also, there is more to meta4 than weapon modules....
Tobiaz
Spacerats
#43 - 2012-05-14 08:53:49 UTC
Linda Shadowborn wrote:

Yes lets ignore that T2 do more damage and that the long range t2 ammo is really sweet in many cases, (barrage and scorch are just pure win). And of course since you dont have to use the t2 ammo.. i dont see why we would ever use meta 4 over t2 if we can use t2.


Not all T2 are weapons. And it's not uncommon for pilots to drop a T2 module for a Meta-4 because of the much lower fitting requirements.

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Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#44 - 2012-05-16 13:39:02 UTC
Machete Visor wrote:
simple as looking at the size of the cargo hold of your average mission runner...

they used to fill it up with meta0 items and would leave plenty of unlooted wrecks on the field (remember mission runners are in it for speed and bounties and picking up what they can, not optimizing every m3 of space).

no meta0 = more room for the other items.


no change in drop rates, just more meta items making it to the market. gonna crash, hard.

Hadn't thought of that one, still, I think the change in volume traded is too big to be contributed to players scooping up more of the meta 4 items.
Asher Brood
State War Academy
Caldari State
#45 - 2012-05-17 01:12:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Asher Brood
Wild unhinged speculation,

Nobody really knows what's going on with the loot tables. Buy now as meta 4 prices are flatlining right now and can only go up.

Go to Jta and look at the graphs.Smile
Samroski
Middle-Earth
#46 - 2012-05-17 04:28:16 UTC
yes, can only go up... great time to buy :)

Any colour you like.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#47 - 2012-05-18 02:17:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Kara Books
Samroski wrote:
yes, can only go up... great time to buy :)


even if the drop rates are fixed, ALL of the merchants are so scared into buying into any meta 4 item right now, simply because there are no safety nets (low and high price caps in place)

The volatility is extreme, thus the risk of ISK loss is much larger then chance for ISK gain over consistent trade periods.


I suspect, at-least hope CCP is allowing this as a temporary change to help the Pirate population with cheaper stuff to gank miners with (hulkageddon), If this isn't part of CCP's plan then I think we, as merchants have some very big problems to look forward to as the trajectory leads to irresponsible planing over the entire spectrum of the resalable items.

For now, Im seeing this as a very solid plan, so far its playing out well for the Pirates, miners and low/nulsec populations.

On a side note, I have strong reason to believe this is something CCP is cooking up because some large improvements where made to the market system very recently, leading me to believe CCP isnt abandoning us the merchants, thus this leads me to suspect of a bigger picture type of plan from CCP.

Stay tuned folks, I feel this is going to be a very entertaining ride.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#48 - 2012-05-18 07:56:13 UTC
Kara Books wrote:
Samroski wrote:
yes, can only go up... great time to buy :)


even if the drop rates are fixed, ALL of the merchants are so scared into buying into any meta 4 item right now, simply because there are no safety nets (low and high price caps in place)

The volatility is extreme, thus the risk of ISK loss is much larger then chance for ISK gain over consistent trade periods.



The crash is going on "unseen" since the last big patch time or so.

I have checked some "known good" items that should show some liquidity. Click on "Max days ago 360" and "Week".

1600mm Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates I

Prototype 'Arbalest' Heavy Assault Missile Launcher I

Prototype 'Arbalest' Torpedo Launcher

Faint Epsilon Warp Scrambler I


Here is a Meta 3 too:

J5b Phased Prototype Warp Scrambler I


As you can see, the meta 4 behavior is quite similar and any traders station trading those items are basically going counter trend. That is they are buying from buy orders at low price to flip on sell orders but with a falling knife going against them.

Look at example at the Faint Epsilon scrambler (remember to set to weekly view): it's trivial to see how it made a double top (the two big red pin bars in the last weeks) which of course has a target of said double top replicated below.

But don't be fooled by the "bottomed" two last candles that are actually two buyers reactions to try hold price up. Price is still due to fall against their face until they manage to setup a double bottom (M formation = bearish double top, flipped W formation = bullish double bottom) or an inversion pin bar (it HAS to be large and we have small ones ATM).

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Tauranon
Weeesearch
CAStabouts
#49 - 2012-05-18 08:09:36 UTC
Meta4s are region buys, ie if you are freighter trader, rather than a station flipper there iis still ample margin to make them safe trades - to be honest there is often 40% in just landing them in Jita and selling to buy orders, and plenty of buy volume to absorb you on landing.

I agree they are doomed to approach mineral value unless the drop rate is sorted out though.
Corporate Envoy
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#50 - 2012-05-18 18:58:15 UTC
I first noticed the drop on the meta 3+4 Tracking Disruptors. i wrote it down to manipulation since those items might be up for a significant boost, but I guess the real reason is a combination of what you all said.
OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
#51 - 2012-05-18 21:57:47 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Kara Books wrote:
Samroski wrote:
yes, can only go up... great time to buy :)


even if the drop rates are fixed, ALL of the merchants are so scared into buying into any meta 4 item right now, simply because there are no safety nets (low and high price caps in place)

The volatility is extreme, thus the risk of ISK loss is much larger then chance for ISK gain over consistent trade periods.



The crash is going on "unseen" since the last big patch time or so.

I have checked some "known good" items that should show some liquidity. Click on "Max days ago 360" and "Week".

1600mm Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates I

Prototype 'Arbalest' Heavy Assault Missile Launcher I

Prototype 'Arbalest' Torpedo Launcher

Faint Epsilon Warp Scrambler I


Here is a Meta 3 too:

J5b Phased Prototype Warp Scrambler I


As you can see, the meta 4 behavior is quite similar and any traders station trading those items are basically going counter trend. That is they are buying from buy orders at low price to flip on sell orders but with a falling knife going against them.

Look at example at the Faint Epsilon scrambler (remember to set to weekly view): it's trivial to see how it made a double top (the two big red pin bars in the last weeks) which of course has a target of said double top replicated below.

But don't be fooled by the "bottomed" two last candles that are actually two buyers reactions to try hold price up. Price is still due to fall against their face until they manage to setup a double bottom (M formation = bearish double top, flipped W formation = bullish double bottom) or an inversion pin bar (it HAS to be large and we have small ones ATM).


VV, I love it when you talk dirty economics to me man.
Ocih
Space Mermaids
#52 - 2012-05-19 03:20:49 UTC
Linda Shadowborn wrote:
Ocih wrote:
For several months now it has been cheaper, far and away to fit Meta 4 over T2.

A mega Pulse Meta 0 costs1.2 mill
T2 Mega pulse is 4.5 mill

Meta 4 Mega Modulated cost 930K to buy and there is no shortage of them.
Conflag and Navy Multifreq both have 50% range penalty. Conflag has a .7 tracking penalty, Navy does not.

30.8 EM/ Therm 55.4 and 32.3 Shield and armor base on the conflag and

32.2 em, 23 therm with 50.6 and 27.8 on the Navy. For the low damage multipliers of Amarr, the dps loss is compensated for with the additional tracking. The point being, once people start to put the math to paper we will see alot more loot fits on the field.

The only exception will be blaster fits because T2 Blaster ammo has 25% range penalty where Navy antimatter has 50%.


Yes lets ignore that T2 do more damage and that the long range t2 ammo is really sweet in many cases, (barrage and scorch are just pure win). And of course since you dont have to use the t2 ammo.. i dont see why we would ever use meta 4 over t2 if we can use t2.


Or lets just ignore that I wrote down all the dps values for conflags and compared them to Navy? Still, you are 101% correct. Meta 4 sucks, reproc them all. They fail. Only losers fail fit Meta 4. Happy now?
Corporate Envoy
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#53 - 2012-05-19 10:37:50 UTC
Still not flatlining, still dropping. How do I figure out the mineral value on the meta items? Sorry if it is obvious, I have no skill in reprocessing and have never bothered with it before. I just want to know when these things hit the floor.
clixor
Celluloid Gurus
#54 - 2012-05-19 11:08:50 UTC
Corporate Envoy wrote:
Still not flatlining, still dropping. How do I figure out the mineral value on the meta items? Sorry if it is obvious, I have no skill in reprocessing and have never bothered with it before. I just want to know when these things hit the floor.


I just use everefinery.
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#55 - 2012-05-19 11:18:03 UTC

The volume of some dropped modules has definitely increased, just look at the graphs.

I'm thinking there has been a snafu swapping some loot tables to scrap metal .
Lustralis
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#56 - 2012-05-19 11:46:25 UTC
Cedo Nulli wrote:
Playerbase doesent actually grow with new players .. only new alts. Those get trained very fast to use vastly cheaper and effective t2 tank.

In short .. people dont need meta-4 tank mods as much. Combined with more supply the same time from noctis hordes.


I use meta-4 all the time in invention jobs.
Corporate Envoy
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#57 - 2012-05-19 13:01:47 UTC
clixor wrote:
Corporate Envoy wrote:
Still not flatlining, still dropping. How do I figure out the mineral value on the meta items? Sorry if it is obvious, I have no skill in reprocessing and have never bothered with it before. I just want to know when these things hit the floor.


I just use everefinery.


Thank you, that worked.
There is a long long long long long long way to the floor. Long way.
Long.

I should have put my money in government bonds like momma said.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#58 - 2012-05-19 14:37:34 UTC
Corporate Envoy wrote:
Still not flatlining, still dropping. How do I figure out the mineral value on the meta items? Sorry if it is obvious, I have no skill in reprocessing and have never bothered with it before. I just want to know when these things hit the floor.


If you want to know when things hit the floor you may read this thread.

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Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#59 - 2012-05-20 12:37:55 UTC
Meta 4 at mineral prices? That would be interesting from a 'I want to pvp as cheap as possible'-point of view.... :P
Corporate Envoy
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#60 - 2012-05-20 13:14:18 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:
Meta 4 at mineral prices? That would be interesting from a 'I want to pvp as cheap as possible'-point of view.... :P


T2 is not that expensive though, what mostly keeps me from casually throwing away ships is not the cost, but the time it takes to put a new one together. It's that shameful ride to the nearest hub. Feels like wearing only underpants at a job interview.

I do hope the prices will pick up again, I know some of those markets were rather busy and I image a lot of people will have an interest in these modules not being sold as were they scrap metal.

Any of you arbitrage meisters have any thoughts on how this will end?
And please, don't link that long-arse thread again. I think I lost a quarter of my left brain hemisphere reading the first page.