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Why is meta-4 taking a dive?

Author
Soldarius
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#21 - 2012-05-07 05:05:24 UTC
I have also noticed an increase in the amount of meta 4 weapons on the market, and a coincidental drop in prices. However, the alteration of the loot tables was as indicated by others, only to replace meta 0 with scraps. So... perhaps some people just reacting by gut and dumping? idk

http://youtu.be/YVkUvmDQ3HY

Tsubutai
Perkone
Caldari State
#22 - 2012-05-08 17:20:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Tsubutai
Soldarius wrote:
I have also noticed an increase in the amount of meta 4 weapons on the market, and a coincidental drop in prices. However, the alteration of the loot tables was as indicated by others, only to replace meta 0 with scraps. So... perhaps some people just reacting by gut and dumping? idk

I find it hard to believe that dumping would affect the meta 4 market so uniformly; it seems far more likely that CCP have (perhaps unintentionally) significantly increased the drop rates.

edit: or that the incursion nerf drove a lot of highsec pve types back to their missions, resulting in a greatly increased influx of loot.

i am not a clever man.
Kalli Brixzat
#23 - 2012-05-08 18:26:17 UTC
Soldarius wrote:
I have also noticed an increase in the amount of meta 4 weapons on the market, and a coincidental drop in prices. However, the alteration of the loot tables was as indicated by others, only to replace meta 0 with scraps. So... perhaps some people just reacting by gut and dumping? idk


I was actually under the impression that drop rates for Meta 1 through 4 were increased. Could be wrong here, but I am DEFINITELY getting more of those mods than I ever did before.
William Joseph Adama
Einstein Rosenbruecke Logistics
#24 - 2012-05-09 09:08:55 UTC
Hello Guys,

CCP removed T1 items with blueprints from loot table, so more missions should drop meta items now.
Implying Implications
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#25 - 2012-05-09 09:43:23 UTC
Looking at the graphs for meta 1-4 you can see the increase in those items being sold this past week.
Nazim
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#26 - 2012-05-09 12:21:00 UTC
I noticed that too (the increase of these item turnover in terms of quantity).

Means one of two things either ccp lied to us about the drops not increasing (the horror) or people have taken to liquidating major amount of stocks.

That said I am seeing many instances of people trying to plug the drop by putting up huge buy orders above the other buy orders. I'm assuing that these buy orders are margin scams wihtout the minimum buy order.
Kalli Brixzat
#27 - 2012-05-09 17:54:12 UTC
Nazim wrote:
I noticed that too (the increase of these item turnover in terms of quantity).

Means one of two things either ccp lied to us about the drops not increasing (the horror) or people have taken to liquidating major amount of stocks.

That said I am seeing many instances of people trying to plug the drop by putting up huge buy orders above the other buy orders. I'm assuing that these buy orders are margin scams wihtout the minimum buy order.


Could be some truth to that. Given that the Jita event has been winding down since last week - and is basically over now - people are VERY likely selling all the crap they've been too scared to go to Jita to sell.

Otherwise...yes...drop rates increased. There's no other explanation for such a rapid and sudden increase that has remained consistent for 2-3 weeks.
Grizilk Chanlin
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#28 - 2012-05-10 06:00:20 UTC
Tebb1288 wrote:
With Hulkageddon going on, almost everyone I know who mines has shifted to missioning. If this is widespread it could result in an increased supply of the meta items since the beginning of Hulkageddon.


You must not have many friends since there have been close to 4000 mining kills since the start of Hulkageddon.

Unfortunately most of the miners continue to mine and lose ships.
Tabane Shinonono
Perkone
Caldari State
#29 - 2012-05-10 06:16:38 UTC
I salvage in a noctis and I realize that yes the amount of loot that drop has lessened, and yes meta-0 items are now mainly metal scraps.

I do not see a great increase in the amount of meta 1-4 loot that dropped.

A n example, L4 "Gone Berserk" full salvage used to have around 2000-3000m^3 of stuff to loot, after the removal of meta 0 , it has dropped to around 300m^3(Mainly because cap booster charges no longer drop. thankfully).
Note that Gone Berserk is a mission against mercenaries, meaning every wreck has loot.
I seem to only pick up a lot of amno/metal scraps. An average of 20-25 modules will drop. mostly meta 1-3 . I would only see 1-2 meta 4 items drop and usually its something that is not worth going to the market to sell , such as meta 4 reinforced bulkheads



My hypothesis is, loot used to be in so much abundance, it was quite tedious to sort through . People might just refine it all into minerals and sell it. Also , there used to be so much crap modules dropping (not very good mineral:space ratio I.E. Miner I modules) Noctises(how do you plural a Noctis lol , Noctiss/Noctises) have to drop the loot at a station every 2-3 l4 missions. hauling it to a tradehub would be troublesome too if the player is just a mission runner/salvage alt. Imagine having to right click sell, each and every item for over 200 items, and checking if it was worth it to just refine or sell to players.

After the patch, you no longer get huge amounts of modules that you have to sift through to find out whether if it is worth it to sell or to refine it. People can keep their noctis running behind my mission runner for more than 5 missions without docking to drop off stuff. Not so tedious to dualbox a noctis and a mission runner now. The stuff that drop now have better Mineral:Volume Ratio (No more lol "cap booster charges 800")
Also , due to the drop in loot amount my guess is that people become more cautious of what they refine, they use to make at least 1.5times in minerals(I know I do) , Shrinking profit margins make people a little more

Thus, the volume of collected loot are now smaller, people can just haul them to tradehubs when they need to trade w/o the need of carrying large amounts of goods/minerals. Thus more people sell off their meta 4 loot than to refine them along with the rest of the stuff by.
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#30 - 2012-05-10 09:03:35 UTC
I don't care what you all say: it's NOT the Noctis, NOT some enormous manipulation scheme and it's not massive change in player behavior.

That leaves about one thing: drop rates increased. It's not like CCP didn't screw those up before....
clixor
Celluloid Gurus
#31 - 2012-05-10 10:05:37 UTC
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I don't care what you all say: it's NOT the Noctis, NOT some enormous manipulation scheme and it's not massive change in player behavior.

That leaves about one thing: drop rates increased. It's not like CCP didn't screw those up before....


It's not screwing up if done intentionally. Clearly CCP wanted to compensate slightly for the m0 drop changes. I do agree that i dont think player behavior has changes, my guess 90% of M4 were sold before and after. So this amount of volume increase can only mean the droprates have increased.

Bad for traders ofcourse, i used to trade quite a bit in M4 in the days. Especially regionwide buys made me quite a bit of isk (with a lot of work though).
Hammer Crendraven
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#32 - 2012-05-10 11:07:37 UTC
I am finding a lot of meta 4 stuff is worth more recyled for its minerals than what they can be sold for on the open market.
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#33 - 2012-05-10 13:12:56 UTC
clixor wrote:
Dirk Decibel wrote:
I don't care what you all say: it's NOT the Noctis, NOT some enormous manipulation scheme and it's not massive change in player behavior.

That leaves about one thing: drop rates increased. It's not like CCP didn't screw those up before....


It's not screwing up if done intentionally. Clearly CCP wanted to compensate slightly for the m0 drop changes. I do agree that i dont think player behavior has changes, my guess 90% of M4 were sold before and after. So this amount of volume increase can only mean the droprates have increased.

Bad for traders ofcourse, i used to trade quite a bit in M4 in the days. Especially regionwide buys made me quite a bit of isk (with a lot of work though).



I still dabble in the high value M4's. If they drop more than 50% they will stop being interesting though I fear.
Karsa Egivand
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#34 - 2012-05-13 17:13:46 UTC
Anybody got more on this?

It's noticable almost across the board, any good explanations beyond guessing?
Machete Visor
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#35 - 2012-05-13 17:34:16 UTC
simple as looking at the size of the cargo hold of your average mission runner...

they used to fill it up with meta0 items and would leave plenty of unlooted wrecks on the field (remember mission runners are in it for speed and bounties and picking up what they can, not optimizing every m3 of space).

no meta0 = more room for the other items.


no change in drop rates, just more meta items making it to the market. gonna crash, hard.
OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
#36 - 2012-05-13 17:42:26 UTC
I have been seeing more Arby Heavy Launchers, god bless Mercs!
Karsa Egivand
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#37 - 2012-05-13 17:47:44 UTC
Machete Visor wrote:
simple as looking at the size of the cargo hold of your average mission runner...

they used to fill it up with meta0 items and would leave plenty of unlooted wrecks on the field (remember mission runners are in it for speed and bounties and picking up what they can, not optimizing every m3 of space).

no meta0 = more room for the other items.


no change in drop rates, just more meta items making it to the market. gonna crash, hard.



It already has. Some items are down to a fraction of their former value.

BTW, I suspect the same (+ incursion runners going back to doing missions), but it still seems like kind of a big crash.

Just looking if sbd. has more insight than i do.
Ocih
Space Mermaids
#38 - 2012-05-13 19:46:21 UTC
For several months now it has been cheaper, far and away to fit Meta 4 over T2.

A mega Pulse Meta 0 costs1.2 mill
T2 Mega pulse is 4.5 mill

Meta 4 Mega Modulated cost 930K to buy and there is no shortage of them.
Conflag and Navy Multifreq both have 50% range penalty. Conflag has a .7 tracking penalty, Navy does not.

30.8 EM/ Therm 55.4 and 32.3 Shield and armor base on the conflag and

32.2 em, 23 therm with 50.6 and 27.8 on the Navy. For the low damage multipliers of Amarr, the dps loss is compensated for with the additional tracking. The point being, once people start to put the math to paper we will see alot more loot fits on the field.

The only exception will be blaster fits because T2 Blaster ammo has 25% range penalty where Navy antimatter has 50%.
Mirajane Cromwell
#39 - 2012-05-13 22:40:50 UTC
Quote:
Compared to the 7 day average before Escalation, the last 7 days have seen a 45.53% decrease in average m3 of ore mined within high sec.
source

So many miners have changed their habits and have started doing something else. I doubt they're spinning ships all day long in the hangar - most likely they're now running missions and collecting the loot from them and this has affected meta 4 prices. Then there's also the incursion nerf and drone loot nerf which have probably driven some players back to missions...
clixor
Celluloid Gurus
#40 - 2012-05-13 22:54:54 UTC
Mirajane Cromwell wrote:


So many miners have changed their habits and have started doing something else.


What do you expect when.. well. everybody is shooting miners..