Market Discussions

Well, someone flipped a lot of mech engineering datacores in Jita. Sell up from 250k this morning to 350k (ish) this evening.

Price Estimates:

Assume most conservative scenario
500 isk/lp and tier 2 sov = 250k a datacore

Most optimistic scenario
1.5k isk/lp tier 1 sov = 800k a datacore


Should see datacores priced 400k-600k

I am glad that i bought my stock a couple of months ago when i first heard of the changes. I'm not sure if prices will double in the long run as along with the nerf to hi-sec agents and so the supply, there will be an additional source of datacores from FW.

We should see a unified cost of datacores from each faction and 250k - 400k ea, even for the stronger factions doesn't sound unreasonable.

I expect with the introduction of Datacores to the FW store, we will see a general increase in prices fof other FW items

Ship datacores are posed to make the biggest increase in price. While their supply is greater than most other datacores at the moment, we are looking at a big nerf to supply: the multiplier is going down from x3 to x1 (nerfing supply by 300%) and then cost is going from 150RP to 100 RP. So baiscally the cost before change is 50 RP/core where the new cost will be 100 RP/core and FW bunnies won't be buying them up until their price falls in line with the other cores.

There are a lot of people with spare isk after the last mineral speculation, i imagine that a lot of those people will start buying in over the weekend and following week, pushing the datacores up and a little beyond their final value.

Not a huge amount of players read the forums, so i assume we won't get everyone cashing their RP and dumping their datacores at once, but i wouldn't be surprised to see a few large sell orders coming in. People not following blogs will really lose out as will people who dump datacores before the effects of inferno can be fully realized.

I also believe some of the more educated T2 inventors/manufactures won't be cashing in and will be setting up large orders early in order to keep themselves in cheap datacores over the next few months. This will further push up the price before the patch.

Ship datacores have already gone up 100% in the last couple of weeks, but i imagine their is still plenty of room for an increase. As you say, with a supply nerf and constant demand prices will go up. With a 50% supply nerf it is quite feasible that datacore prices will increase 200-300%.

The final value really depends on how many datacores are going to be injected by FW and i highly doubt they will be able to make up anything close to the 50% Research agent nerf.

The current amount being produced by eve players and their alts is truly staggering atm, i don;t have any numbers, but you have to understand the whole T2 market is pinned on datacores, if you wanted to work out the total volume of datacores produced you'd have to look at the daily traded volume for every T2 item in game (not including ships) and multiply by a factor of 2. This should give a conservative estimate as to the number of Datacores and i am sure that reducing this value by 1/2 will have massive effects on supply and thus the price.

FW won't be able to make up for the missing volume until more players join. Short/Medium-term, datacores will go through the roof but as more people start joining FW we will see prices steadily come back down and settle a little above where they are now.





FW should have the effect of balancing datacore prices, If mechanical engineering cores are 460~500k ea, then so will every other minmitar datacore. FW introduces the option to buy any type of datacore you like and so FW pilots will always choose the most profitable core thus balancing the market.

Right now, i'd be more interested in the Amarr datacores. Minmitar does have a very strong demand followed by Amarr, however i hear Amarr aren't so good at the FW business.

Thats my thought too . i think people expecting these to go up much and busy relisting everything are in for rude awakening.

I'm making a killing in profits with relisted datacores as well. We'll see once the fw changes hit on may 20th how the market will respond. Hint: datacores belonging to the lp shop of militias that historically do bad on sov plexing may be well worth investing in, since sov will not be reset

No doubt there are a ton of unclaimed RP out there, but doubtless as well is that a large percentage of it will be sitting in accounts belonging to people who don't read forums, dev blogs or patch notes, and will be surprised, or indeed not even notice, the RP cost of their datacores doubling, especially if they haven't cashed in in years.

Then you've got to consider the people who are aware of the changes, but will simply cash out quickly and dump into buy orders.

Little light to your 'investment plans'...

Lets assume i have 2m LPs for exchange in Amarr FW LP store.

Usually ppl will go for ships then conversion ratio isks/lp looks like this:

Scenario where Amarr militia gets only TIER2 (very probable)

Apocalypse Navy Issue 500k LP + Apock Hull + Chip

Lets assume 450m constant sell price.

NAME - ISKs per LP
Apoc sov Tier1 310
Apoc sov Tier2 620
Apoc sov Tier3 1240 <- Currently status on TQ
Apoc sov Tier4 2480

Lets look at datacores in Tier2 scenario. Lets assume datacore price 250k isk

NAME - ISKs per LP[/b]
Datacore sov Tier1 250
Datacore sov Tier2 1500
Datacore sov Tier3 4000
Datacore sov Tier4 9000

As you can see its more profitable to go for datacores than for ships if datacore price will be around 250k/unit.

Lets say datacore costs 200k isk
Datacore sov Tier1 0
Datacore sov Tier2 1000
Datacore sov Tier3 3000
Datacore sov Tier4 7000

In 200k/unit scenario conversion isk on tier 2 is still acceptable and ppl will go for it like theyre going for ships with similar conversion ratio - 1000 isk / LP

Things start to look intresting at Tier3 - 3000 isk / LP for datacore costing 200k/unit where conversion ratio is very good and ships get... only 1240 Who smart would go for ships when you can get 3000 for datacores ? :)

Lets assume datacore will be 150k / unit and look at tier3 scenario

Datacore sov tier1 -500
Datacore sov tier2 0
Datacore sov tier3 2000
Datacore sov tier4 3000

To get 1000isk/LP ratio datacore in tier3 would have to sell for 100k/unit

In Tier3 we can still get 2000 isk / LP even if datacore price sill be 150k/unit. Thats good ratio.


Now lets go back to my 2m LPs... for that i can buy on poor tier2 scenario :
2 000 000 LP / 500 LP * 5 = 20 000 datacores
I would have to pay in isks : 4000 * 500k = 2b (see isk sink in here from CCP?)
I would sell them for 20 000 * 250k = 5b
Profit : 5b - 2b = 3b

Now tell me what profit would i get with your cosmic 400k+/unit datacore prices?
And look at those bilions which will go for exchanging datacores...
Curently if ppl buy ships from LP store they give LPs + Hull = Ship - with datacore scenario CCP creates isk sink for billions of isk.

With those isk/lp rates he estimates FW will crawl with farmers.

"Will" being the key word. It will take time for people to upgrade their system and players to join FW. The thing to remember is that not all factions will be at tier 3 at once, so there will be volatility on the markets, you just have to chose what you are going to buy carefully.

Furthermore, if datacore prices start to hit the 2misk/1000lp rate, other FW LP items will increase in price.