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RL Financial Analysis - Presenting: Monkey Darts!
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Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#1 - 2012-04-24 15:23:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Tekota
Imagine you could harness the raw fiscal genius of blindfolded monkeys flinging what monkeys fling best! (forget that school trip to the zoo, what monkeys actually fling best is darts at financial pages)

Well now, through the power of the Monkey Darts Method, you can simulate this economic powerhouse and make easy use of strategies which have been regularly shown to outperform RL fund managers. The Monkey Darts Method is also the easiest investment strategy to master *and* can be much more fun - especially if you can obtain actual monkeys.

To simulate your highly trained team of monkey analysts simply take a large list of market goods. For the examples below I chose the volume listing from Eve Marketeer, once drone poo was scooped up this resulted in a list of 490 regularly traded items - in hindsight, the volume list results in a rather ammo heavy index so you may wish to source a turnover sorted list.

Then pick a number of items to invest in each month, for the examples below I decided 20 items would be acceptable, representing a position on around 4% of the index at any given time. Then the power of monkey investment potential can be harnessed by using any random number generator to pick 20 items from your index. Buy a small but equal position on each monkey picked item (for the examples below I went with 100m isk on each item for a total 2b trusted to monkeys).


RESULTS:


I simulated investments of one month duration over a period of three successive months picking 20 items at random, noting the Forge average price on the 22nd of the month, comparing the price the next month, and extrapolating the percentage gain or loss to an imaginary 100m investment in each. This method runs the risk of ignoring effects on a market caused by investing into it, assumes prices obtained are the average for the given day, and ignores broker/tax fees but is assumed to be sufficiently accurate for monkeys.

Jan 22 - Feb 22 my elite monkey investors chose to invest 100m in each of:
Thorium Charge M, Autotrophs, Federation Navy Antimatter Charge S, Datacore - Electronic Engineering, Nova F.O.F. Heavy Missile I, Lead Charge L, Spike M, Inferno Light Missile, Fernite Carbide Composite Armor Plate, Rolled Tungsten Alloy, Scourge Torpedo, Inferno Rage Torpedo, Nuclear L, Antimatter Charge S, Felsic Magma, Exterminator F.O.F. Light Missile I, Caldari Navy Lead Charge S, Powdered C-540 Graphite, Ferrogel, Nitrogen Isotopes
This resulted in a total profit of 638.37m isk off a 2b total investment, or 31.92 percent

Feb 22 - Mar 22 Monkey Buffett and his team chose to invest 100m in each of:
Caldari Navy Lead Charge L, Mjolnir Javelin Torpedo, Proton L, Scourge Precision Heavy Missile, Laser Focusing Crystals, Proton S, Ancient Coordinates Database, Smashed Trigger Unit, Genetically Enhanced Livestock, Scourge F.O.F. Cruise Missile I, Nova Cruise Missile, Coolant, Guristas Scourge Assault Missile, Inferno Torpedo, Nuclear S, Hail M, Caesium, Caldari Navy Thorium Charge L, Mjolnir Precision Heavy Missile, Fullerite-C84
This resulted in a total profit of 40.3m isk off a 2b total investment, or 2.02 percent. Monkey Buffett was sacked.

Mar 22 - Apr 22 saw me headhunt from Morangutan Stanley and Wells Fargorilla, the team investing 100m in each of:
Polyaramids, Caldari Navy Uranium Charge L, Republic Fleet Depleted Uranium S, Liquid Ozone, Fusion S, Inferno Torpedo, Inferno F.O.F. Cruise Missile I, Mjolnir Torpedo, Seeker F.O.F. Light Missile I, Caldari Navy Plutonium Charge S, White Glaze, Republic Fleet Titanium Sabot L, Tungsten Carbide Armor Plate, Caldari Navy Inferno Cruise Missile, Cobalt, Hydrocarbons, Inferno Rage Torpedo, Nova Rage Assault Missile, Spike M, Tritanium
This resulted in a total profit of 365.46m isk off a 2b total investment, or 18.27 percent


CONCLUSIONS:


The power of the Monkey Darts Method lies in the long term and as such, early results as promising as they are must therefore be treated with caution. Nevertheless, the method is repeatable, independently verifiable, and therefore I have little reservation in recommending it to primates everywhere.
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#2 - 2012-04-24 15:24:04 UTC
RAW DATA:



Monkeys are known for being rigourous adherents to the scientific method and as such you will find below the raw data used such that results can be independently verified. Unfortunately, these new forums are lacking the code block / table feature found within the forums of yore (please CCP, please, pretty please) and as such you'll have to untangle the ungodly mess yourselves; maybe ask the monkeys to help.

Jan 22 - Feb 22
Thorium Charge M £39.40 £30.27 -23.17% -£23,172,588.83
Autotrophs £2.75 £3.50 27.27% £27,272,727.27
Federation Navy Antimatter Charge S £440.00 £516.67 17.43% £17,425,000.00
Datacore - Electronic Engineering £162,998.98 £189,999.97 16.57% £16,565,128.20
Nova F.O.F. Heavy Missile I £15.04 £17.04 13.30% £13,297,872.34
Lead Charge L £59.87 £98.95 65.27% £65,274,761.98
Spike M £300.48 £774.00 157.59% £157,587,859.42
Inferno Light Missile £6.15 £6.00 -2.44% -£2,439,024.39
Fernite Carbide Composite Armor Plate £8,288.84 £9,000.00 8.58% £8,579,728.89
Rolled Tungsten Alloy £1,950.99 £1,940.82 -0.52% -£521,273.81
Scourge Torpedo £211.91 £318.89 50.48% £50,483,695.91
Inferno Rage Torpedo £1,079.40 £999.97 -7.36% -£7,358,717.81
Nuclear L £31.65 £31.10 -1.74% -£1,737,756.71
Antimatter Charge S £16.23 £21.25 30.93% £30,930,375.85
Felsic Magma £5.21 £4.50 -13.63% -£13,627,639.16
Exterminator F.O.F. Light Missile I £1.77 £6.00 238.98% £238,983,050.85
Caldari Navy Lead Charge S £849.98 £896.99 5.53% £5,530,718.37
Powdered C-540 Graphite £1,049.17 £1,150.97 9.70% £9,702,908.01
Ferrogel £9,535.40 £9,433.79 -1.07% -£1,065,608.15
Nitrogen Isotopes £525.53 £770.71 46.65% £46,653,854.20

Feb 22 - Mar 22
Caldari Navy Lead Charge L £918.98 £1,249.95 36.01% £36,014,929.60
Mjolnir Javelin Torpedo £2,096.97 £2,100.00 0.14% £144,494.20
Proton L £46.88 £46.99 0.23% £234,641.64
Scourge Precision Heavy Missile £844.99 £706.89 -16.34% -£16,343,388.68
Laser Focusing Crystals £36,497.81 £39,155.27 7.28% £7,281,149.20
Proton S £12.98 £5.00 -61.48% -£61,479,198.77
Ancient Coordinates Database £1,500,000.00 £1,500,000.00 0.00% £0.00
Smashed Trigger Unit £77.42 £78.01 0.76% £762,076.98
Genetically Enhanced Livestock £8,100.00 £7,028.18 -13.23% -£13,232,345.68
Scourge F.O.F. Cruise Missile I £101.98 £139.98 37.26% £37,262,208.28
Nova Cruise Missile £118.46 £117.00 -1.23% -£1,232,483.54
Coolant £9,000.08 £8,246.96 -8.37% -£8,367,925.62
Guristas Scourge Assault Missile £209.26 £434.99 107.87% £107,870,591.61
Inferno Torpedo £339.47 £369.37 8.81% £8,807,847.53
Nuclear S £16.64 £4.15 -75.06% -£75,060,096.15
Hail M £657.87 £541.95 -17.62% -£17,620,502.53
Caesium £2,651.23 £2,900.00 9.38% £9,383,191.95
Caldari Navy Thorium Charge L £1,169.50 £1,259.00 7.65% £7,652,843.10
Mjolnir Precision Heavy Missile £505.22 £566.48 12.13% £12,125,410.71
Fullerite-C84 £861.00 £913.50 6.10% £6,097,560.98

Mar 22 - Apr 22
Polyaramids £9,203.24 £8,055.00 -12.48% -£12,476,475.68
Caldari Navy Uranium Charge L £1,179.99 £1,644.00 39.32% £39,323,214.60
Republic Fleet Depleted Uranium S £580.00 £895.06 54.32% £54,320,689.66
Liquid Ozone £374.92 £468.00 24.83% £24,826,629.68
Fusion S £42.30 £26.99 -36.19% -£36,193,853.43
Inferno Torpedo £369.37 £371.45 0.56% £563,120.99
Inferno F.O.F. Cruise Missile I £100.00 £159.33 59.33% £59,330,000.00
Mjolnir Torpedo £251.64 £321.06 27.59% £27,587,029.09
Seeker F.O.F. Light Missile I £9.00 £8.07 -10.33% -£10,333,333.33
Caldari Navy Plutonium Charge S £829.93 £648.99 -21.80% -£21,801,838.71
White Glaze £235,000.01 £256,002.04 8.94% £8,937,033.66
Republic Fleet Titanium Sabot L £1,330.00 £1,389.77 4.49% £4,493,984.96
Tungsten Carbide Armor Plate £7,749.90 £7,919.98 2.19% £2,194,608.96
Caldari Navy Inferno Cruise Missile £1,549.99 £1,768.96 14.13% £14,127,187.92
Cobalt £670.91 £799.97 19.24% £19,236,559.30
Hydrocarbons £212.88 £226.11 6.21% £6,214,768.88
Inferno Rage Torpedo £999.83 £926.03 -7.38% -£7,381,254.81
Nova Rage Assault Missile £112.77 £295.00 161.59% £161,594,395.67
Spike M £327.88 £348.89 6.41% £6,407,832.13
Tritanium £4.86 £6.05 24.49% £24,485,596.71
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#3 - 2012-04-24 15:26:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Tekota
LINKS WHICH CONSISTENTLY BREAK THE BBCODE IN THE MAIN POST


Further reading - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burton_Malkiel
Eve Marketeer - http://www.evemarketeer.com/trade/highest_volume
Random number generator - http://www.random.org/
stoicfaux
#4 - 2012-04-24 15:54:19 UTC
Quote:
I simulated investments of one month duration over a period of three successive months picking 20 items at random,

Given how critical your selection process is to your Monkey Dart market strategy, can you please elaborate on how you picked your 20 items, i.e. there's "random" and then there's random.

Also, someone really needs to code a Monkey Dart Selection app into eve-central.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.
Barakach
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#5 - 2012-04-24 15:54:47 UTC
I could see this being useful for "easy" investments, but I would think just investing into as much as you can, based on volume, would be best.

BTW, I love your post.
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#6 - 2012-04-24 15:58:47 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Quote:
I simulated investments of one month duration over a period of three successive months picking 20 items at random,

Given how critical your selection process is to your Monkey Dart market strategy, can you please elaborate on how you picked your 20 items, i.e. there's "random" and then there's random.

Also, someone really needs to code a Monkey Dart Selection app into eve-central.



Numbered list of 490 items obtained via the eve marketeer page linked above, then 20 random numbers (betwixt 1 and 490) generated via the random.org page also linked. Random numbers looked up against numbered list from eve marketeer.

The chimpanzees told me this was as an acceptable model to simulate their darts prowess.
stoicfaux
#7 - 2012-04-24 16:11:23 UTC
Tekota wrote:

Numbered list of 490 items obtained via the eve marketeer page linked above, then 20 random numbers (betwixt 1 and 490) generated via the random.org page also linked. Random numbers looked up against numbered list from eve marketeer.

The chimpanzees told me this was as an acceptable model to simulate their darts prowess.

Ah yes, that makes it abundantly clear. Thank you for your patience.

I was concerned that "Monkey Dart" was a polite euphemism for monkey poo and you were simply printing out the market list and taping it to the wall, thus introducing bias into your selection process (i.e. was the monkey aiming for the center of the list thus favoring items in the middle of the list.) It would also raise questions about font size versus fecal matter size to minimize overlap by the "darts."


Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#8 - 2012-04-24 16:22:04 UTC
This thread seriously lacks of banana bars charts! P

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Barakach
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#9 - 2012-04-24 16:37:36 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Tekota wrote:

Numbered list of 490 items obtained via the eve marketeer page linked above, then 20 random numbers (betwixt 1 and 490) generated via the random.org page also linked. Random numbers looked up against numbered list from eve marketeer.

The chimpanzees told me this was as an acceptable model to simulate their darts prowess.

Ah yes, that makes it abundantly clear. Thank you for your patience.

I was concerned that "Monkey Dart" was a polite euphemism for monkey poo and you were simply printing out the market list and taping it to the wall, thus introducing bias into your selection process (i.e. was the monkey aiming for the center of the list thus favoring items in the middle of the list.) It would also raise questions about font size versus fecal matter size to minimize overlap by the "darts."




I never knew poo flinging was so complicated. I guess one is not a connoisseur until font sizes are involved.