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Heavy Water - A Market Analysis
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Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#21 - 2012-03-20 10:32:40 UTC
Pax Dei wrote:
I'm not sure what you do not understandWhat?. Slavemaster postulated his argument for high sec mining. Here is an example to show you how you end up with to much Heavy Water when producing blocks. My BPO is a 40 for no waste.

Im going to procduce 50 blocks of ice.

Demand for doing that is 20k isotopes, 7,5k Heavy water and 7,5k Liquid Ozone.
The rest is irrelevant for this discussion.
To get enough ice to make this, if we look at high sec mining only, we need 66,667 Ice to meet the isotopes demand. To meet the Heavy Water need for this, you need 150 ice cubes. To meet the Liquid Ozone you need 300 Ice cubes. So what Slavemaster is saying, is that when you have made those blocks, you will have a surplus of 7500 heavy water.

I'm guessing you missed the high sec postulate, in eve all goods do not moove that easy/freely.

If you do not see this point, I cannot help you understand.

Pax Dei

Ah, I see what you're saying, and it's an interesting argument to be true. You're making the assumption that all ozone used in fuel block construction comes from empire mining though which is not going to be true. If that were true your numbers would stand.

But we cannot discount the massive contribution of ozone from nullsec. A nullsec miner pulls in ozone 90x (90,061/950) faster than a highsec mining bot, and heavy water at 45x a highsec miner's rate. We have direct evidence that large amounts of dark glitter are mined and compressed in nullsec (for the purposes of shipping it - dark glitter is 7.5x smaller volume when compressed than the refined products).

This is a random snapshot on a random day (which we can only hope is reflective of the average), which shows just under 61k dark glitter was compressed. That is 61mil ozone - nearly enough to match the galaxy's demand for the day. This compressed ice is shipped to empire with great regularity to supplement the highsec miner's shortfall of ozone production. Thus we should not assume that highsec miners are required to produce all their own ozone.

I would be partial to the argument that there are more highsec miners than our estimates, or that on average they have better mining bonuses/yields than we predicted. Because if there were enough highsec miners then they could outstrip the demand of HW significantly, leading to the price differences we're seeing... becauset it's only highsec miners that could ever create the imbalance we're seeing (or epic stockpiles being bled off slowly).
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#22 - 2012-03-20 11:14:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
CCP: "Produced yesterday: 60,809 C. Dark Glitter, 7,596 C. Smooth Glacial Mass, 4,011 C. Thick Blue Ice." *Your link
This is less than 5% (My bet closer to 3%) of what is produced in Highsec. It dont even matter. *

There are nobody in EVE that transports Ozon to high sec from low sec. And if you find one, pray for his soul.

Oo
Pax Dei
Wet Dreams Inc.
#23 - 2012-03-20 11:48:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Pax Dei
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Ah, I see what you're saying, and it's an interesting argument to be true. You're making the assumption that all ozone used in fuel block construction comes from empire mining though which is not going to be true. If that were true your numbers would stand.


You make to many assumptions, I do know how to use a calcultaor.
Furthermore, I do not think, I know you are barking up the wrong tree.
( see how easy that was Big smile, just claiming something without real backup, numbercrunshing is fun when you know what X is.)

Based on your assumptions on how much HW is used on Rorq, vs Blocks vs LO and LO's usuage, I'd take a "leap" assumption that you do not understand the levels of how litle HW is used by Rorq, and how much LO is used by jumpgates, cynos etc.

Alas, I see where this is going, and its a waste of time.

Pax Dei

I hate stupid people
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#24 - 2012-03-20 11:51:01 UTC
Slavemaster wrote:
CCP: "Produced yesterday: 60,809 C. Dark Glitter, 7,596 C. Smooth Glacial Mass, 4,011 C. Thick Blue Ice." *Your link
This is less than 5% (My bet closer to 3%) of what is produced in Highsec. It dont even matter. *

There are nobody in EVE that transports Ozon to high sec from low sec. And if you find one, pray for his soul.

Not sure if serious...

I've just directly provided evidence showing that 61mil ozone of Dark Glitter was compressed on that random day. By reasonable estimates highsec only produces 11.4mil - 18.24mil ozone a day. That alone places low/nullsec production of ozone at least 77% to 84% of the ozone in the game. Higher when you count the other ice types mined in those areas.

I'm going to assume you are also not a miner, because it is extremely common for nullsec miners to export compressed dark glitter to empire. Then they refine the ice in highsec to get out the ozone, heavy water, strontium. You have estimated heavy water production at 15x higher than it could possibly be (900mil HW/day?), and now have misplaced the origin of ozone by a factor of 25 as well.

Please try to remember that the galaxy does not end at the edge of highsec space. Highsec bears are so cute with their notions of what the game is like...

Please use sources OR logic for any further numbers you supply and we will speak again. I would prefer to arrive at a reasonable estimate/explanation for the imbalance between ozone/HW.
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#25 - 2012-03-20 12:25:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Slavemaster wrote:
CCP: "Produced yesterday: 60,809 C. Dark Glitter, 7,596 C. Smooth Glacial Mass, 4,011 C. Thick Blue Ice." *Your link
This is less than 5% (My bet closer to 3%) of what is produced in Highsec. It dont even matter. *

There are nobody in EVE that transports Ozon to high sec from low sec. And if you find one, pray for his soul.

Not sure if serious...

I've just directly provided evidence showing that 61mil ozone of Dark Glitter was compressed on that random day. By reasonable estimates highsec only produces 11.4mil - 18.24mil ozone a day. That alone places low/nullsec production of ozone at least 77% to 84% of the ozone in the game. Higher when you count the other ice types mined in those areas.

I'm going to assume you are also not a miner, because it is extremely common for nullsec miners to export compressed dark glitter to empire. Then they refine the ice in highsec to get out the ozone, heavy water, strontium. You have estimated heavy water production at 15x higher than it could possibly be (900mil HW/day?), and now have misplaced the origin of ozone by a factor of 25 as well.

Please try to remember that the galaxy does not end at the edge of highsec space. Highsec bears are so cute with their notions of what the game is like...

Please use sources OR logic for any further numbers you supply and we will speak again. I would prefer to arrive at a reasonable estimate/explanation for the imbalance between ozone/HW.


Big words from a little ant. I suggest, make that demand you spend all your ISK on HW. And Prove it.
I will laugh at you in 3 mouths. I dont know the F** who you are. One thing for sure you are an Idiot without a clue.

Oo
El 1974
Green Visstick High
#26 - 2012-03-20 13:11:11 UTC  |  Edited by: El 1974
Good luck buying heavy water.

Imo your estimates are way off.

When your analysis of what market prices should be doesn't match reality, then it's ususally not the marketpricing that is wrong but the analysis.
Patri Andari
Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
#27 - 2012-03-21 00:20:41 UTC
Slavemaster wrote:
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Slavemaster wrote:
CCP: "Produced yesterday: 60,809 C. Dark Glitter, 7,596 C. Smooth Glacial Mass, 4,011 C. Thick Blue Ice." *Your link
This is less than 5% (My bet closer to 3%) of what is produced in Highsec. It dont even matter. *

There are nobody in EVE that transports Ozon to high sec from low sec. And if you find one, pray for his soul.

Not sure if serious...

I've just directly provided evidence showing that 61mil ozone of Dark Glitter was compressed on that random day. By reasonable estimates highsec only produces 11.4mil - 18.24mil ozone a day. That alone places low/nullsec production of ozone at least 77% to 84% of the ozone in the game. Higher when you count the other ice types mined in those areas.

I'm going to assume you are also not a miner, because it is extremely common for nullsec miners to export compressed dark glitter to empire. Then they refine the ice in highsec to get out the ozone, heavy water, strontium. You have estimated heavy water production at 15x higher than it could possibly be (900mil HW/day?), and now have misplaced the origin of ozone by a factor of 25 as well.

Please try to remember that the galaxy does not end at the edge of highsec space. Highsec bears are so cute with their notions of what the game is like...

Please use sources OR logic for any further numbers you supply and we will speak again. I would prefer to arrive at a reasonable estimate/explanation for the imbalance between ozone/HW.


Big words from a little ant. I suggest, make that demand you spend all your ISK on HW. And Prove it.
I will laugh at you in 3 mouths. I dont know the F** who you are. One thing for sure you are an Idiot without a clue.


I know who Bloodtear is (are) and many of us who have a presence in industry outside Jita know just how much influence in the market THEY have especially in the ice market.

Feel free to make yourself appear the idiot. I am sure you have a plan.



Be careful what you think, for your thoughts become your words. Be careful what you say, for your words become your actions. Be careful what you do, for your actions become your character. And character is everything. - author unknown
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#28 - 2012-03-21 00:47:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
Patri Andari wrote:
Slavemaster wrote:
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Slavemaster wrote:
CCP: "Produced yesterday: 60,809 C. Dark Glitter, 7,596 C. Smooth Glacial Mass, 4,011 C. Thick Blue Ice." *Your link
This is less than 5% (My bet closer to 3%) of what is produced in Highsec. It dont even matter. *

There are nobody in EVE that transports Ozon to high sec from low sec. And if you find one, pray for his soul.

Not sure if serious...

I've just directly provided evidence showing that 61mil ozone of Dark Glitter was compressed on that random day. By reasonable estimates highsec only produces 11.4mil - 18.24mil ozone a day. That alone places low/nullsec production of ozone at least 77% to 84% of the ozone in the game. Higher when you count the other ice types mined in those areas.

I'm going to assume you are also not a miner, because it is extremely common for nullsec miners to export compressed dark glitter to empire. Then they refine the ice in highsec to get out the ozone, heavy water, strontium. You have estimated heavy water production at 15x higher than it could possibly be (900mil HW/day?), and now have misplaced the origin of ozone by a factor of 25 as well.

Please try to remember that the galaxy does not end at the edge of highsec space. Highsec bears are so cute with their notions of what the game is like...

Please use sources OR logic for any further numbers you supply and we will speak again. I would prefer to arrive at a reasonable estimate/explanation for the imbalance between ozone/HW.


Big words from a little ant. I suggest, make that demand you spend all your ISK on HW. And Prove it.
I will laugh at you in 3 mouths. I dont know the F** who you are. One thing for sure you are an Idiot without a clue.


I know who Bloodtear is (are) and many of us who have a presence in industry outside Jita know just how much influence in the market THEY have especially in the ice market.

Feel free to make yourself appear the idiot. I am sure you have a plan.





I am sure they are the local heroes. And in local channel they Rule and is a inspirational for the 10-20 In EVE that makes 10 mill isk per day hauling Ozon from high sec to low sec. Or that one day if they dont get shot down in there Iteron they will make 20 mil per day. Yes, you are right they Control the Ozon marked from High to Low.

- IT dont change the fact that since this post was started Heavy water is down from 74 to 71
Since this brilliant analyzes of heavy water was posted.

Fym. Heavy Water in is freighter garbage. If the lowest form of trade goods in EVE due to the volume per Hw.040.
This garbage will go down to 18-20 where it belongs.

So.. You go on and salute the trash kings of eve. BTW, there is a 7 mil +6 Mil sell on HW atm. I suggest you follow your master voice and buy it all. Why not start a bond here at Mc ?

Oo
Heretycs
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#29 - 2012-03-21 01:01:49 UTC
This thread is amazing. 10/10 would read again. Thank you Slavemaster.
Goonspiracy
Doomheim
#30 - 2012-03-21 01:15:45 UTC
I believe we're talking about the guy who WROTE THE BOOK on nullsec mining, both ice and ore, which has since been translated into many other languages and republished:
http://go-dl.eve-files.com/media/1010/Bloodtear_Industy_Index_Report_v2.pdf

who acheived the first level 5 industry system:
http://go-dl.eve-files.com/media/1004/Bloodtear_E-Y_Mining_Report.pdf

who has mined enough to create his own private super capital fleet of 2 titans and 4 supercarriers
http://gents.eve-kill.net/?a=kill_detail&kll_id=10833738
http://gents.eve-kill.net/?a=kill_detail&kll_id=12798533]

I'm sure this guy who has provided reasoned evidence for every assertion and has years of massively successful experience in this field... I'm sure he doesn't know what he's talking about.

Heavy water is up from 57 at the time of the original post, now to 71. Which would be a 24.5% gain. Why don't you and your highsec love buddies go sit in the corner while the adults discuss things that are obviously above your head.
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#31 - 2012-03-21 01:31:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
"Heavy water is up from 57 at the time of the original post, now to 71. Which would be a 24.5% gain. Why don't you and your highsec love buddies go sit in the corner while the adults discuss things that are obviously above your head."

Not talking you local station. But at Jita

Jita is the biggest trade Hub* in EVE. That where most of the trade*2 in EVE happens. But, be sure that you are at the
right station. Jita 4-4 Caldari *3 navy


* 1 Is a place where many make trade*2 deals.
* 2 Trade is like in the real world. You got money, you can get a Ice cream or candy on Saturday nights,
* 3 Hub. Is a concentration, or many shops under a roof. A mall is it also called if you never have been in one.

Hope this helps

Edit : He may be the King of the potato people. So, I let that rest.
Will see in 3 mounts who is right on this. Until then.....

Oo
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#32 - 2012-03-22 09:51:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
Edit:
Goonspiracy wrote:


Heavy water is up from 57 at the time of the original post, now to 71. Which would be a 24.5% gain. Why don't you and your highsec love buddies go sit in the corner while the adults discuss things that are obviously above your head.



IT was never 57, how do i know. Bc i trade in Hw. Thats why my first post here was a bit "shallow"

Hehe, Yeay I`ll do that. I`ll sit here in empire and earn more than you and your corp at Jita. While you have to get back to the rock and start to mine again after this Failed adventure. You are the type of trade idiot i presume that never will take a loss. You will go down with the ship, and will sit there with millions of millions of worthless trash.

You are right, I dont care **** for lowsec. I have seen so many "heros" over the years that lives the short dream of glory. Who feels they are "the real" deal with their mining vessel, and pay rent money. They Always come back to Highsec, wih no isk, r... And the last thing they do before they rage quit is to scam in Local.

Friendly advice take your loss now, its been down 10% Since this thread started.
- 69, 61 Sell
- 59, 24 Buy

This is at Jita. What ever corner of space you live it dont matter. If you have a clue of whats going on at Jita, you will see that the difference has very high, between buy, and sell. Cant even remember when it was that huge difference. To make things worse. Its a "wall" at 7mil. (But, I want bs on this even thou your m8 believes mil is a "huge" number its not. Its ok)

But, in your rented space or the numbers here in this thread its Only 140k ice. On the other hand thats 2days worth of Ice mining in Low sec CCP. and Ts confirm by the Noob marked analyzation.

"John Turbefield @CCP_Diagoras [url]https://twitter.com/#!/CCP_Diagoras/status/174930843981193216[/url]
Follow Ore/Ice compression! Produced yesterday: 60,809 C. Dark Glitter, 7,596 C. Smooth Glacial Mass, 4,011 C. Thick Blue Ice."

I can go on and on. And one day, i hope. You will look back and admit that this BS from TS. Its so far fetch that its....
The reason why I shamefully rep my self. Is that the pitiful attempt for a hype the marked was so Bs,
that no beast or man have to witness. On the other hand, if its to a hype. Then wow....

K... In 3 mounts, it might even be less. Will be back and laugh when it hits 20, and one more time at 18.

I repeat. Every day there is a surplus of Hw. My bet is that around 700k ice per day in Empire. Thats 17.5 surplus after the fuel is made. You have to be a raving lunatic to believe that the 191 Roq use that.

So.. 17.5 mil of trash is produced every day. But, for some trash is gold.
Run along my little boy, sell some plex, buy more Hw so you can get back what you lost.

Oo
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#33 - 2012-03-22 12:51:46 UTC
Slavemaster wrote:
Edit:
IT was never 57, how do i know. Bc i trade in Hw. Thats why my first post here was a bit "shallow"

Hehe, Yeay I`ll do that. I`ll sit here in empire and earn more than you and your corp at Jita. While you have to get back to the rock and start to mine again after this Failed adventure. You are the type of trade idiot i presume that never will take a loss. You will go down with the ship, and will sit there with millions of millions of worthless trash.

You are right, I dont care **** for lowsec. I have seen so many "heros" over the years that lives the short dream of glory. Who feels they are "the real" deal with their mining vessel, and pay rent money. They Always come back to Highsec, wih no isk, r... And the last thing they do before they rage quit is to scam in Local.

Friendly advice take your loss now, its been down 10% Since this thread started.
- 69, 61 Sell
- 59, 24 Buy

This is at Jita. What ever corner of space you live it dont matter. If you have a clue of whats going on at Jita, you will see that the difference has very high, between buy, and sell. Cant even remember when it was that huge difference. To make things worse. Its a "wall" at 7mil. (But, I want bs on this even thou your m8 believes mil is a "huge" number its not. Its ok)

But, in your rented space or the numbers here in this thread its Only 140k ice. On the other hand thats 2days worth of Ice mining in Low sec CCP. and Ts confirm by the Noob marked analyzation.

"John Turbefield @CCP_Diagoras [url]https://twitter.com/#!/CCP_Diagoras/status/174930843981193216[/url]
Follow Ore/Ice compression! Produced yesterday: 60,809 C. Dark Glitter, 7,596 C. Smooth Glacial Mass, 4,011 C. Thick Blue Ice."

I can go on and on. And one day, i hope. You will look back and admit that this BS from TS. Its so far fetch that its....
The reason why I shamefully rep my self. Is that the pitiful attempt for a hype the marked was so Bs,
that no beast or man have to witness. On the other hand, if its to a hype. Then wow....

K... In 3 mounts, it might even be less. Will be back and laugh when it hits 20, and one more time at 18.

I repeat. Every day there is a surplus of Hw. My bet is that around 700k ice per day in Empire. Thats 17.5 surplus after the fuel is made. You have to be a raving lunatic to believe that the 191 Roq use that.

So.. 17.5 mil of trash is produced every day. But, for some trash is gold.
Run along my little boy, sell some plex, buy more Hw so you can get back what you lost.

It's pretty obvious that English is not your forte. Nor is communication or civility. Moving beyond that, heavy water was indeed buying at 57 at the time of the original post (as I stated in the original post). You'll also note that my posts have provided an analysis of heavy water production/consumption and stated that it "should" be at a certain price. The rest of the discussion has been about why it was not at that price and seeking an explanation. You have not brought anything to the discussion besides your dunce hat.

The 700k ice number you provide is within the bounds of our estimate (as that's 768 highsec miners). Which is 35mil HW from highsec miners a day (also within our estimates). From post 14 in this thread we concluded that the galaxy consumed 51.5mil heavy water a day just to maintain towers. So I'm not sure where you're deriving a heavy water surplus of 17.5mil/day, when we've shown the highsec supply is in fact a 16.5mil/day shortfall.

Even if we remove all non-ice crunching fleet boosting rorquals from the equation, the CCP quote about compressed ice implies 8.5 full time rorqual compressors (based on best ice compression speeds for 72,416 ice compressed in 24hrs) consuming at least another 1.5mil HW on top of the tower use. This places an ABSOLUTE MINIMUM of HW consumption at 53mil/day.

Heavy water may continue to fall, but the question remains: Why?

The most plausible answer we both agree on is oversupply. And the only place that could create this imbalance is more highsec miners than we estimated, large heavy water reserves, or a HW oversupply by nullsec miners (which would indicate an ozone price collapse shortly).

PS: What's this Jita place you're talking about? Do they have purple lewts there?
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#34 - 2012-03-23 01:49:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
"PS: What's this Jita place you're talking about? Do they have purple lewts there?"
- That is priceless coming from a miner.

Your inferior complex is so obvious with your wow reference. One thing for sure I played this game (2003)
That was before wow, your first I presume.

2009.10.17 05:17 - When you joined this game

Your conclusion" So I'm not sure where you're deriving a heavy water surplus of 17.5mil/day, when we've shown the highsec supply is in fact a 16.5mil/day shortfall."

Who is "We" here. Are they all Morons like you that don't understand simple math.

Oo
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#35 - 2012-03-23 08:50:53 UTC
Slavemaster wrote:
"PS: What's this Jita place you're talking about? Do they have purple lewts there?"
- That is priceless coming from a miner.

Your inferior complex is so obvious with your wow reference. One thing for sure I played this game (2003)
That was before wow, your first I presume.

2009.10.17 05:17 - When you joined this game

Your conclusion" So I'm not sure where you're deriving a heavy water surplus of 17.5mil/day, when we've shown the highsec supply is in fact a 16.5mil/day shortfall."

Who is "We" here. Are they all Morons like you that don't understand simple math.

Son... there's an intelligence divide here which is preventing fruitful discussion. Your sarcasm meter is improperly installed, your skills at basic arithmetic are under developed, your understanding of the game is a "pubbie level", and you really need to follow your own forum signature's advice: "Do not presume to address matters beyond your competence"

You are quite obviously suffering from this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

for which you have our sympathies. But you are obviously not capable of continuing this discussion, and we thank you for the entertainment up til now. Before its past your bed time please have your mom proofread your posts and we'll try to move forward from there.
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#36 - 2012-03-23 09:25:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Slavemaster wrote:
"PS: What's this Jita place you're talking about? Do they have purple lewts there?"
- That is priceless coming from a miner.

Your inferior complex is so obvious with your wow reference. One thing for sure I played this game (2003)
That was before wow, your first I presume.

2009.10.17 05:17 - When you joined this game

Your conclusion" So I'm not sure where you're deriving a heavy water surplus of 17.5mil/day, when we've shown the highsec supply is in fact a 16.5mil/day shortfall."

Who is "We" here. Are they all Morons like you that don't understand simple math.

Son... there's an intelligence divide here which is preventing fruitful discussion. Your sarcasm meter is improperly installed, your skills at basic arithmetic are under developed, your understanding of the game is a "pubbie level", and you really need to follow your own forum signature's advice: "Do not presume to address matters beyond your competence"

You are quite obviously suffering from this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

for which you have our sympathies. But you are obviously not capable of continuing this discussion, and we thank you for the entertainment up til now. Before its past your bed time please have your mom proofread your posts and we'll try to move forward from there.


hehe, was that your best. tsk tsk. Psst Dude you started this BS discussion

Edit:.
But you cant hang around here... You have to hurry back to buy more Hw.

Its down - 15% now. Sell: 66,98 There is 3 mil more to get.. Then you can push op the prices again.
- You have to spend money to gain money.

Oo
papamike
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#37 - 2012-03-23 10:54:50 UTC
You both realise outside of your interweb spaceships game you are both coming across as sexually repressed young men right?

But cheers for the entertaining read. I could almost feel the donuts being smootched in infuriated clenched fists as you both read each others replies
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