These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Market Discussions

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Banks. We need them.

Author
Kara Roideater
#241 - 2012-03-20 10:40:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Kara Roideater
Hexxx wrote:

One of the very important points in talking about risk management is the difference between possible and probable. Right now, today, as we speak, it is possible that your Bank in RL could experience fraud. Collusion is all it takes. It could be caught eventually, but not right away. However, this has a very very low probability. Not being dismissive of your point, I just wanted to touch on that. In EBANK's case, the database fraud was not financially significant (that is to say, not a significant amount when compared to the total finances). That doesn't mean it's ok, it simply means that the amount wasn't terribly damaging to the overall finances.


But the key point here is that the massive and cumbersome systems of financial regulation is RL is what makes the probability low. Sure, it is possible but in RL it is sufficiently unlikely that tech issues (failure or manipulation) will have any significant effect that it is reasonable to effectively discount these issues in one's decision making processes. In eve, it is not just possible but sufficiently likely that it MUST be factored in as a significant risk. Sure, the amount involved in the EBANK database fraud might not have been huge but, this being eve, would you really want to bet that the next time round it won't be more significant, even catastrophic? I'm willing to make that bet in RL because of an implicit trust in the systems involved, the thousands of people working regulatory tasks who are cross checking each other and the tens of millions of man hours that have gone into building the whole system, including the ultimate security of the government guaranteeing my deposits. Eve can never offer a shadow of that kind of regulatory capacity but, on the other side of the equation, the capacity for theft is massively enhanced (due to lack of significant consequences etc). Indeed, so limited is the regulatory capacity in eve that it took Ray more than 6 months (iirc) to carry out his complete audit of EBANK, which turned up that fraud. Such an audit would, I suspect, have been more or less impossible if carried out while the bank was still operating, so it was more of a post-mortem, and even that degree of oversight can't be applied to a living bank in eve.
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#242 - 2012-03-20 11:22:03 UTC
Ok, I see that four people are really committed to keeping this discussion in the realm of make-believe even for internet spaceships.

Just as with the insurance scheme, I've made it clear that Hex is clueless about even the fundamentals of business, and is just looking to hoodwink enough naive people into creating a base level of support for his ill-conceived ideas. Just as with his insurance scheme, he won't even make it far enough to try. If a couple of eager people want to waste their time on ridiculous ideas despite being presented with actually valid options, then there is little more I can do for them.

I'll bump this thread in a month for ample helping of "itoldyouso" and "holyshityouredumb".
Kara Roideater
#243 - 2012-03-20 11:30:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Kara Roideater
Darth Tickles wrote:
Ok, I see that four people are really committed to keeping this discussion in the realm of make-believe even for internet spaceships.



Four? I hope you're not including me in that number. I'm trying to make the same point as you but in a way that might actually have some effect on the people I'm talking to (well two of them anyway - I suspect that Hexxx is a lost cause).

Edit - Are you really surprised that your comments don't have as much effect as you pretend to expect they should have? You take some valid points and them surround them with preposterous overstatement and unfounded generalisations and then you act as if you are mystified that people point out the overstatements and generalisations without focusing cleanly on the actually valuable bits of what you say. Very bad communicative strategy if you do actually have any intention of changing the minds of these people.
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#244 - 2012-03-20 11:55:58 UTC
We obviously have a difference of opinion over the various ways people can be swayed and what is considered "proper and acceptable" discourse, and to a certain degree it's something that you take seriously. That's fine.

I think you are lacking an awareness of the importance of the nature of the venue that is a spaceships game forum, and the corresponding nature of the discourse that takes place. When you follow all your liberal, academic rules of argumentation, you're merely providing the appearance of legitimacy to those you're arguing against. They don't follow your rules of logic, so there is no way you can "box them in" like you would in academic circles, yet you choose to hold yourself to these rules. The result is you write a whole bunch of words that people only half read, because **** it it's spaceships, and it appears you are in a serious discussion over serious topics with serious people, while really some scammer is just hammering out garbage on his end, hoping people are swayed by the appearance of legitimacy.

I don't expect to change your mind here...but I think your behaviour is really quixotic, where your adherence to some inappropriate code ultimately betrays you to what you are attempting to speak against. I think your faith in people's willingness to wade through enormous and cumbersome arguments, and then emerge with the "truth" is sadly misplaced in this venue.

Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#245 - 2012-03-20 11:59:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Darth Tickles
Like I said, I'll bump this thread in a month for self-congratulation. I think I am far more "tapped in" to what works and what doesn't, and I am confident my goals were achieved.
Adunh Slavy
#246 - 2012-03-20 12:31:26 UTC
Darth Tickles wrote:
If a couple of eager people want to waste their time on ridiculous ideas despite being presented with actually valid options, then there is little more I can do for them.



But you'll keep trying anyway? :)

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#247 - 2012-03-20 12:37:57 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
But you'll keep trying anyway? :)


No, if 5 pages of getting hammered isn't enough, a 6th, 7th, and so on will do little more.

I will continue to speak with raw if he continues to engage because he's someone I like and respect, even if circumstance has made us serious spaceship forum enemies.
Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#248 - 2012-03-20 12:42:39 UTC
Kara Roideater wrote:
Hexxx wrote:

One of the very important points in talking about risk management is the difference between possible and probable. Right now, today, as we speak, it is possible that your Bank in RL could experience fraud. Collusion is all it takes. It could be caught eventually, but not right away. However, this has a very very low probability. Not being dismissive of your point, I just wanted to touch on that. In EBANK's case, the database fraud was not financially significant (that is to say, not a significant amount when compared to the total finances). That doesn't mean it's ok, it simply means that the amount wasn't terribly damaging to the overall finances.


But the key point here is that the massive and cumbersome systems of financial regulation is RL is what makes the probability low. Sure, it is possible but in RL it is sufficiently unlikely that tech issues (failure or manipulation) will have any significant effect that it is reasonable to effectively discount these issues in one's decision making processes. In eve, it is not just possible but sufficiently likely that it MUST be factored in as a significant risk. Sure, the amount involved in the EBANK database fraud might not have been huge but, this being eve, would you really want to bet that the next time round it won't be more significant, even catastrophic? I'm willing to make that bet in RL because of an implicit trust in the systems involved, the thousands of people working regulatory tasks who are cross checking each other and the tens of millions of man hours that have gone into building the whole system, including the ultimate security of the government guaranteeing my deposits. Eve can never offer a shadow of that kind of regulatory capacity but, on the other side of the equation, the capacity for theft is massively enhanced (due to lack of significant consequences etc). Indeed, so limited is the regulatory capacity in eve that it took Ray more than 6 months (iirc) to carry out his complete audit of EBANK, which turned up that fraud. Such an audit would, I suspect, have been more or less impossible if carried out while the bank was still operating, so it was more of a post-mortem, and even that degree of oversight can't be applied to a living bank in eve.


I wouldn't disagree with your point here, it's very largely valid. I would comment on the specific case, since I do have some knowledge of it.

A larger amount would have been noticeable much more quickly...as it was, we discovered the discrepancy because it caused a breach in the referential integrity of the database - that is to say, because it was done directly to just one table, other tables with relationships to it showed a discrepancy. I think there are key integrity checks that can be built into any Bank now to lesson the possibility that it would be noticed sooner....but that doesn't make it impossible, just more difficult.
Adunh Slavy
#249 - 2012-03-20 12:46:27 UTC
Darth Tickles wrote:
Adunh Slavy wrote:
But you'll keep trying anyway? :)


No, if 5 pages of getting hammered isn't enough, a 6th, 7th, and so on will do little more.



Why bother at all? Most people already know that internet endeavors like this usualy end, but they try anyway. Not because they delude them selves into assurances of success, but because they have fun doing it. Most people will never be rock stars, but they enjoy playing their guitars and spending thousands of dollars and hours goofing around. This is no different, it's a hobby.

So their hobby is doomed to eventually fail for any number of reasons, who cares. The end result is not the goal, trying is.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#250 - 2012-03-20 12:48:04 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
So their hobby is doomed to eventually fail for any number of reasons, who cares. The end result is not the goal, trying is.


I've already covered this multiple times.
Adunh Slavy
#251 - 2012-03-20 12:53:17 UTC
Darth Tickles wrote:
Adunh Slavy wrote:
So their hobby is doomed to eventually fail for any number of reasons, who cares. The end result is not the goal, trying is.


I've already covered this multiple times.



Then I suggest you stop trying since it has apparently failed. Right? :)

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#252 - 2012-03-20 12:55:47 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Then I suggest you stop trying since it has apparently failed. Right? :)


You're the one talking to me. I'm talking to raw.
Adunh Slavy
#253 - 2012-03-20 13:03:45 UTC
Darth Tickles wrote:
You're the one talking to me. I'm talking to raw.


Uh huh

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#254 - 2012-03-20 13:19:01 UTC
Darth Tickles wrote:
...I am confident my goals were achieved.


We have much in common, you and I. Big smile
Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#255 - 2012-03-20 13:24:57 UTC
Kara Roideater wrote:
Darth Tickles wrote:
Ok, I see that four people are really committed to keeping this discussion in the realm of make-believe even for internet spaceships.



Four? I hope you're not including me in that number. I'm trying to make the same point as you but in a way that might actually have some effect on the people I'm talking to (well two of them anyway - I suspect that Hexxx is a lost cause).

Edit - Are you really surprised that your comments don't have as much effect as you pretend to expect they should have? You take some valid points and them surround them with preposterous overstatement and unfounded generalisations and then you act as if you are mystified that people point out the overstatements and generalisations without focusing cleanly on the actually valuable bits of what you say. Very bad communicative strategy if you do actually have any intention of changing the minds of these people.


I may not change my mind, but I do listen to and appreciate intelligent feedback and criticism. For example, I really liked VV's criticism of me. I hadn't thought about it in those terms before, and I don't think I can argue it either.

Utemetsu
#256 - 2012-03-20 13:58:48 UTC
Since this has turned into debate club, I'd like to see Darth Tickles cite his sources. Should he fail to do so, all points that he's made are hereby moot on the grounds that they're unsubstantiated pomp wrapped in a 'mysterious' avatar

Of course, What we'll see now is yet another reply decrying both my understanding of fundamental economics, EVE's meta, and anything else he cares to 'slam my **** in the door' about

More on topic now
Risk in EVE is the end-all-be-all mechanic that the game is entirely built around, as I've said before. You take a risk when you undock, you take a risk when you purchase a good (for trade or use), you take a risk when you fill a bond, when you offer a bond, loan or IPO, and you take a risk whenever you engage with another part of the game

Now, these are all things that hold true in the real world as well. This is the great wit of EVE's creators -- in the real world, you take a risk when you engage with another part of reality. You risk pain, you risk money, you risk your time, you risk the very idea and concept of yourself whenever you are in contact with something else (which is all the time)

While much of Real Life's risks are insubstantial, you are always actively managing those risks -- with EVE, the repercussions are largely intangible. You're not going to lose your job, you're not going to die, you're not going to be in debt to creditors, there are no long-term substantial, tangible, REAL risks involved with anything you're doing in EVE. This is the basic fabric of EVE

[i] how can you best manage risk for fun and profit[/i
Be it with the spaceship you undock with, or the goods you purchase (for trade or use), when you're filling the bond, when you're offering the bond, loan or IPO, and whenever you are engaging with another part of the game

When EBANK Collapsed (and I'm sure you're going to take issue with this part, because I don't understand what I'm talking about), what did the depositors REALLY lose

Was it their time? Certainly not, because they made a concious decision to accrue the capital, spend it, and hope. At no point during this process were the ever NOT playing the game

Was it their money? Nowhere on any GTC, ETC, or PLEX does it entitle you to profit, fun, or success. They are merely tickets to get in

Was it their reputation? No, they're the 'victims' of one player's greed, [i]which everyone is well aware is a major driving force of everything in EVE.[/i

Now look at it from the other angle, if you would, Tickles

When EBANK Collapsed what did those who ran it lose
Was it their time? Definitely. If you're famiiar with EBANK you'll know they spent extensive time outside of the game building a framework from scratch, IN THE REAL WORLD (much like your book), discussing business strategies etc

Was it their money? Of course! It costs money to host things on the web, surely even you must know this

Was it their reputation? Without a doubt. As evidenced by your sentiment toward Hexxx, he is clearly not a trusted individual in your book of names, likely stemming from his involvement with EBANK. The name ITSELF is (as has been said in this thread before) the 'kiss of death', and rightly so -- it was a monumental construct collapsing in on itself for the reasons we've spent nearly 12 pages discussing thus far


My point is this: You take risks. You choose what those risks are, and the game is a game of managing those risks. So here we are, discussing the concept of banking in a hypothetical setting, attempting to 'work out the kinks' as it were; meanwhile, you sit just outside the realm of reasonable discussion, blurting out your objections to nearly everything suggested, implied, and sometimes to things that just aren't there, on the grounds that you know more, you've experienced more, and that these things somehow entitle you to faith-based arguments that should be listened to and thoughtlessly accepted simply because Darth Tickles, master of EVE, says them.
Gorki Andropov
I Dn't Knw Wht You Wnt Bt I Cn't Gve It Anymre
#257 - 2012-03-20 16:45:40 UTC
People who have come from some of the biggest scam operations (i.e., EBANK) in EVE. We don't need them.
Jake Andarius
Andarius Trading Corp.
#258 - 2012-03-20 16:56:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Jake Andarius
Adunh Slavy wrote:
It is the monetary inflation I was addressing, the nature of the money, debt, ensures that there is never enough money to pay for all of the debt. To service the debt the money supply has to expand, though not always expressed as Note and Coin, which incurs yet more debt; so it goes on and on and on. The rate of increase is an exponential growth function. Sooner or later it is going to explode beyond what productivity can match.

Oh, as another side note, they are not treasury notes, they are Fed Reserve Notes, read the fine print, on the bill it self. :) Last time we had treasury notes was Executive Order 11110 I believe.


You are entirely correct that there is never enough money to pay for all the debt. We have a debt-based monetary system. If all the debt were theoretically wiped out, new money could not be created and the system would crash. However, the debt that we are talking about is not the debt that people are familiar with. It is not bad, destructive debt that is even intended to be entirely paid off at some point in the future. The rate of increase of debt is on an exponential growth function along with the exponential growth of production of goods (because of increase exponential growth of technology and population). So your statement that it is on an inevitable track to "explode" is false and due to misconceptions about how the system functions.

Also, I was specifically talking about Treasury Notes, not Federal Reserve Notes. Treasury Notes (and Treasury Bills, Treasury Bonds) are all bonds issued by the US Government. Those bonds are sold on a private market (usually of commercial banks) very regularly. This is how the US accrues debt to pay for the the great number of governmental programs, with the intention of collecting taxes to pay off debt while accruing future debt. The Federal Reserve can purchase these bonds from the commercial banks by creating money out of thin air. That is one of their central jobs, in fact. The rate at which they buy bonds controls the rate of increase of the money supply. At the end, the Federal Reserve must pay the US Treasury back its earnings from the bonds it bought. This is why you hear the phrase "the US government owes itself the majority of its own debt." The entire system is extremely clever, because it is designed to avoid the US Treasury being able to create money itself. Past history has shown that when a government has direct ability to create the money supply, they are much more likely to spend themselves into hyperinflation. The Federal Reserve system is a checks and balance for money creation.

Kara Roideater wrote:
Btw, stop being mean to Darth. Consistency isn't his strong suit as it can play merry hell with the flow of his rhetoric. Clearly one or the other has to be sacrificed.


I actually apologize for the way the cognitive dissonance remark was said. I was trying to make a legitimate point about a seeming contradiction in his statements in a cute way to try to make light fun, but later realized that, under the already heated circumstances of our general disagreements, it just made Darth more irritated. My manner was childish. Sorry Darth Tickles. Sad

Kara Roideater wrote:
@Hexxx and Jake - I have very grave worries about any business model that starts from the premise that it is only workable if it targets the ignorant and exploits the stupid.


Hexxx and I were not definitely not advocating exploiting people as a policy that a future bank upstart should take. I think we were commenting that, eventually, another bright group of MD thinkers might get together and try to start a bank again. And we both believe that there seems to be people willing to trust a bank, especially if the bank can explain how it would avoid the problems that plagued previous banks. A lot of MDers might think anyone who invests in a new bank is a complete idiot, but I actually do not hold that opinion. Judging from forum posts, I believe that a lot of people that invested with Phaser were giving them a few hundred million expecting to lose that small amount but really hoping that Phaser would prove itself to be a real bank. From their perspective, a few hundred million is a rather paltry amount to pay for the chance to see if an upstart bank that is getting a lot of attention actually at least paying back the principal plus interest (of course, it does nothing to check to see if it is a Ponzi Scheme).

Hexxx wrote:
Jake Andarius wrote:
Thinking about it a bit more, it seems like so long as multiple copies of the API retrievals are on backup, someone could entirely destroy the database and it would not destroy the actual bank records. That is, from the API record, everything else could be restored. Would that be correct?


You would miss payments submitted to loans and transfers between user profiles. But yes....API records can be used as a consistency check, however the work here to make this happen would be very very significant.


I really want the discussion to center around the API as a method to overcome the database vulnerabilities, because I believe the API might be the way to fix the problem. If all deposits and withdrawals are sent through a handful of bank characters, then those APIs should be able to recreate the entire logs of the banks transactions. Imagine if the API was not only being retrieved by the bank's database for their website, but it was also being retrieved by a trusted third parties database. Then all the accounts were made public, so everyone could see everyone's deposit or withdrawal. The trusted third party could clearly see irregularities if the database were tampered with. Moreover, if the bank was scammed and the database destroyed, the third party would still have the records to help the bank repay its customers from the assets that remained.
Liberty Eternal
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#259 - 2012-03-20 17:03:22 UTC
So this is what MD has come to? Serious posts in serious threads. Makes me want to weep Sad
TornSoul
BIG
#260 - 2012-03-20 17:52:39 UTC  |  Edited by: TornSoul
Jake Andarius wrote:
Then all the accounts were made public, so everyone could see everyone's deposit or withdrawal.

I think you'd find a wee bit of opposition to that.

Most people don't like other people to know just how much ISK they have (or don't have).
Or for that matter that they are involved with Bank X in the first place.

Privacy is a BIG concern for many. Any bank not respecting that would have an even harder time growing.



As for a technical solution as how to secure data, it's really not that hard.

Daily backups of the DB is sufficient (to a different location)
The API is able to track back that far should a DB disaster occur (do note that the API has a limit as to how far back you can "see")

That done, you can always go back and analyze the data in case of suspected DB tampering.

You won't be able to *prevent* it (as that's simply logical impossible), but you'll be able to detect it.