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Heavy Water - A Market Analysis

Author
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#1 - 2012-03-19 23:33:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Jita Bloodtear
Based on our estimates 39mil to 42mil ozone is consumed by towers a day, and at least an equal amount of heavy water.

Heavy water is massively consumed by rorquals in nullsec (a sieged rorqual consumes 6,750-12,000 heavy water an hour depending on skills - 45x to 80x more than a large tower). We estimate there to be 50-100 sieged rorquals around the clock, creating a HW demand of 8.1 to 28.8mil HW a day. Based on level 4 skills this is 9.36 to 18.72mil heavy water a day.

These estimates place heavy water demand at 48.36 to 60.72mil a day.

Based on our previous estimates we believe 500-800 ice miners are running continuously in empire, producing 22.8mil to 36.48mil HW a day (twice the amount of ozone they produce). We know from previous estimates that ozone must be mined in lowsec/nullsec at 27.5 to 55.98mil/day, which makes Heavy water production optimally half of that at 13.75 to 27.99mil/day. Giving us a supply of 36.55 to 64.47mil/day.

Heavy Water Summary:
Supply: 36.55 to 64.47+mil
Demand: 48.36 to 60.72mil
Jita daily volume: 60mil
Recent Price: 55-90 isk/unit

Ozone summary:
Supply: 38.8 to 74.22+mil
Demand: 45.64 to 67.38mil
Jita daily volume: 60mil
Recent Price: 350-390 isk/unit

Why is ozone being priced at 4-6x the value of heavy water when their production and consumption are so similar? Based on historic values we expect ozone to balance out around 340-380/unit, while heavy water should be 150-200/unit.

Note: In low/nullsec ice miners prefer dark glitter, which produces twice as much ozone as heavy water. So if you're thinking these areas of the game are producing far more heavy water than ozone you'd be mistaken. That's the only unknown piece of the equation, and if that were to scale up then ozone would drop massively in value long before heavy water did. And since that isn't happening, we can safely assume that we're not being over-supplied with heavy water from low/nullsec.

We've seen heavy water reach 220/unit during the fuel block scramble. The only thing that makes sense is that there exist large stockpiles of heavy water in the game from previous years that are being dumped in order to keep prices low. These stockpiles will dry up, and heavy water will rise. In short, you should be buying heavy water right now that it's at 57/unit.
Ocih
Space Mermaids
Somethin Awfull Forums
#2 - 2012-03-19 23:55:29 UTC
Stront markets and Heavy water markets are both niche markets.
Sieged Rorq and POS for Water
Sieged Dread and POS for Stront.

If Dust works based on Sieged dreads, it will spike as well.

Both of these items hinge on CCP cracking down on Bots though. While we all love to hate the bots, if they were removed from EVE tommorow, Ice based mechanics are going to see them more than anything else.

- I'm sure you bought shitloads of cheap water and are trying to spike the price. I can tell you, I have more Stront than I will ever use in 200 life times. I also know to hang on to it because you are right. It has no choice but to go up in price. If it's cheaper than it should be, it's an investment.
Xioden Acap
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2012-03-20 00:06:44 UTC
Cyno fields and jump bridges add up to a lot of liquid ozone really quickly.
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#4 - 2012-03-20 00:36:14 UTC
Jita Bloodtear wrote:


The only thing that makes sense is that there exist large stockpiles of heavy water in the game from previous years that are being dumped in order to keep prices low. These stockpiles will dry up, and heavy water will rise. In short, you should be buying heavy water right now that it's at 57/unit.


Frankly, almost nothing gets wasted in Eve. And for a long time, heavy water has been too cheap to movev (even in high sec) just because so much of it was supplied for the demand. So I believe there were and still are massive stockpiles of heavy water around both intentional and not. I haven't checked the prices, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that heavy water is really, really cheap in ice mining areas far from Jita.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#5 - 2012-03-20 00:36:27 UTC
rorquals basically never siege in 0.0 you nutjob

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#6 - 2012-03-20 00:38:51 UTC
99% of rorqual pilots have forgotten you can use it to compress ore

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#7 - 2012-03-20 00:43:03 UTC
bottlenecking son, look it up and then you will understand why heavy water is priced at approximately the smallest amount of money you would charge to move it from random places to jita

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

EvilCheez
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2012-03-20 00:52:08 UTC
Considering it had little demand until recently there should be LARGE amounts of it in dusty, rarely used wallet divisions. Your analysis should at least admit its existence.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#9 - 2012-03-20 00:56:33 UTC
no but seriously heavy water is and always will be worthless even with energon cubes under current mechanics

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#10 - 2012-03-20 01:36:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
... This might be true, or are. But, if you look at the marked graph it has been going down for the last 4mounts.
Why nobody cares about heavy water is:

- You need a freighter to haul it. ( 2.2 mil ish = 154 mil (10% of that 15 mil) You will get 49 mil with 10% with trit )
Heavy water its the one with a solid first place that takes the most volume compered to what its worth.

It will go for 60 - 84 for the next mounts, years,
... and is only worth something for the day trader, and with that even for the Op.

Oo

Claire Voyant
#11 - 2012-03-20 02:12:29 UTC
This thread is pure gold. Heavy Water will hit 20 in the next 6 months.
Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#12 - 2012-03-20 02:25:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Jita Bloodtear
Rorquals are constantly sieged in nullsec, they are sieged because that's how they use their industrial cores to generate mining bonuses. They are also constantly used to jump ore/ice from the mining location to lowsec due to their 250k ore bays.

Heavy water is massive to move, but moving things around highsec is no issue at all with freighters. And ice imported to empire is imported in compressed form (which is much more volume-wise than refining it and importing the products). The vast majority of fuel blocks are produced in empire space thus eliminating painful logistics of exporting heavy water to nullsec.

I'd be willing to address your claims of heavy water being a bottleneck, because it's something we've considered. But the numbers indicate that it's not. If you have numbers that you could present that would alter the analysis I will be happy to include them.

Addition: Also, if anything, there are more online towers now than when I generated the estimates for ozone usage (being that was right after the launch of Crucible). Which is when thousands of towers fell offline because they didn't make the fuel switch over in time. A ton of those will be back online now, thus increasing the demand.
Jacabon Mere
Capital Storm.
#13 - 2012-03-20 03:24:45 UTC
A lot of LO gets used for jump bridges. A lot more than the HW that gets used for rorquals

Capital Storm is recruiting Aussies for Lowsec pvp and money making. Join "Capital Storm Pub" channel ingame. www.capitalstorm.net

Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#14 - 2012-03-20 05:04:59 UTC
Jacabon Mere wrote:
A lot of LO gets used for jump bridges. A lot more than the HW that gets used for rorquals

We had made educated guesses as the ozone consumption due to jump bridge use in the previous thread.

Ozone estimated jump bridge use: 4.53 to 19.76mil
HW estimated rorqual use: 9.36 to 18.72mil

You could argue that I've over-estimated the number of active rorquals. It seems right now there are 930 active rorqual pilots in the game sitting in the ship. Which is strong evidence that 50-100 is high, it's probably more like 25-50. Which takes the estimates to:

Ozone estimated jump bridge use: 4.53 to 19.76mil
Revised HW estimated rorqual use: 4.68 to 9.36mil

So yes, probably double the ozone consumption for jump bridges compared to HW usage by rorquals. This alone still doesn't explain why ozone is 4-6x more expensive though
Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#15 - 2012-03-20 07:08:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
... The Problem is that you don't get Ozone from low to high. There are no isk in it.,

But, in Ice where the ozone comes from in high sec. Here is the point.
- When you refine Ice you get 2x amount of Heavy water. ex 100 Ozone and 200 Heavy water.

So, what do High sec do with the that extra heavy water. Is short there a millions out there, and more every day. There
are so much heavy water stacked by "smart traders" that its nothing but a big bobble

And BTW Claire Voyant is right, it will go down to 18-20. Very fast, and there are no reason to Play or pretend
that its not a bobble for "everyone" knows it is.


This Is Why
Lets say a corp mine Ice for Pos fuel. After and they produce 1 fuel block. Guess what happens.

150 Extra heavy water that is useless.

- In the big picture: 6 mil ish blocks made per day
* 900 mil Extra Heavy water per day that nobody needs.

There only reason why it was at 18-20 Is That that is the minimum amount that people in game will bother
to sell, or more correct bother to haul to due the fact its 0.40 M3.

It was a nice try for a hype, but next time add some "friends" in thread to support your claim.
A Solo marked speculation
is not easy to pull off..

Oo

Andski
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#16 - 2012-03-20 07:12:41 UTC
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Rorquals are constantly sieged in nullsec


i can assure you that most nullsec rorqual pilots do not, in fact, use them for anything remotely related to mining

Jita Bloodtear wrote:
You could argue that I've over-estimated the number of active rorquals. It seems right now there are 930 active rorqual pilots in the game sitting in the ship. Which is strong evidence that 50-100 is high, it's probably more like 25-50.


i wonder how many of those 930 rorquals are used for mining

there's probably more being used for anoms than mining, and far, far more being used for POS logistics than anything else

Twitter: @EVEAndski

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths."    - Abrazzar

Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#17 - 2012-03-20 07:28:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Slavemaster
Andski wrote:
Jita Bloodtear wrote:
Rorquals are constantly sieged in nullsec


i can assure you that most nullsec rorqual pilots do not, in fact, use them for anything remotely related to mining

Jita Bloodtear wrote:
You could argue that I've over-estimated the number of active rorquals. It seems right now there are 930 active rorqual pilots in the game sitting in the ship. Which is strong evidence that 50-100 is high, it's probably more like 25-50.


i wonder how many of those 930 rorquals are used for mining

there's probably more being used for anoms than mining, and far, far more being used for POS logistics than anything else


... I am pretty sure the Op knows this.

Oo

Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
#18 - 2012-03-20 08:39:30 UTC
Slavemaster wrote:
... The Problem is that you don't get Ozone from low to high. There are no isk in it.,

But, in Ice where the ozone comes from in high sec. Here is the point.
- When you refine Ice you get 2x amount of Heavy water. ex 100 Ozone and 200 Heavy water.

So, what do High sec do with the that extra heavy water. Is short there a millions out there, and more every day. There
are so much heavy water stacked by "smart traders" that its nothing but a big bobble

And BTW Claire Voyant is right, it will go down to 18-20. Very fast, and there are no reason to Play or pretend
that its not a bobble for "everyone" knows it is.


This Is Why
Lets say a corp mine Ice for Pos fuel. After and they produce 1 fuel block. Guess what happens.

150 Extra heavy water that is useless.

- In the big picture: 6 mil ish blocks made per day
* 900 mil Extra Heavy water per day that nobody needs.

There only reason why it was at 18-20 Is That that is the minimum amount that people in game will bother
to sell, or more correct bother to haul to due the fact its 0.40 M3.

It was a nice try for a hype, but next time add som "friends" in thread to support your claim.
A Solo marked speculation
is not easy to pull off..

Let's work with the numbers directly. The more numbers we have backed up by proven sources the better. Unless you can cite a reason or source for your numbers, they seem to be completely fictional.

1.) There are many types of ice, their refined products are not in the same ratios.

- Highsec racial ice (white glaze, blue ice, etc) are in the ratio of 25 ozone, 50 HW, 300 topes, 1 stront.
- Lowsec/Nullsec non-racial ice worth mining (Dark Glitter) is 1000 ozone, 500 HW, 50 stront

This coincides with my earlier statements that nullsec ice produces 2:1 in favor of ozone, while highsec ice is 1:2 in favor of HW.


2.) A fuel block takes 3.75 ozone/HW to produce, not 150 per block (the BPO takes 150 per run producing 40). We had estimated the average tower consumes 2537 ozone/HW per day based on the 25-15-60 s-m-l split with faction and sov bonuses.. This would be 676.6 fuel blocks/day.

An update on the number of online towers is much higher than our original estimate (15,765), our info now places it at 20,365 online towers. By this logic the galaxy consumes around 13.75mil fuel blocks a day taking 51.5mil ozone/HW a day.

I have no clue what you mean by "After and they produce 1 fuel block. Guess what happens. 150 Extra heavy water that is useless. " because that makes no sense. HW is used in equal proportions to ozone in fuel block construction. You then compound this by randomly multiplying your 6mil fuel blocks by 150 to reach a completely implausible number.


3.) With these updated online tower numbers the HW and ozone consumption in the galaxy would be even higher than my first estimate, placing it more as follows:

Ozone estimated use: 58.19 to 77.02 mil/day
HW estimated use: 56.18 to 60.86 mil/day

The ozone estimate includes cynos, jump bridges, and towers. The heavy water includes towers and the downward revised rorqual consumption from post 14.


4.) If as people claim, that it's not worth it to ship HW to Jita for sale, then prices should be driven up even more because the supply is diminished. This argument doesn't work to claim that the price should be lower - unless you're saying people will suddenly start shipping HW to Jita for sale if the price drops.


So why is heavy water doomed to drop to 20/unit when ozone is fairly stable around 360? You could argue that all ice products are over-priced and that ozone is going to tank massively as well - but historically that seems highly unlikely. 18-20 is the ancient value for HW before fuel blocks demanded it's consumption.

Heavy water may not publicly recognized as being used as much as ozone, but all the numbers indicate it's being consumed in fairly decent comparison to ozone. The only way I could see justifying a massive imbalance is if there were far more highsec miners than we predicted (500-800).

Pax Dei
Wet Dreams Inc.
#19 - 2012-03-20 09:22:52 UTC
I'm not sure what you do not understandWhat?. Slavemaster postulated his argument for high sec mining. Here is an example to show you how you end up with to much Heavy Water when producing blocks. My BPO is a 40 for no waste.

Im going to procduce 50 blocks of ice.

Demand for doing that is 20k isotopes, 7,5k Heavy water and 7,5k Liquid Ozone.
The rest is irrelevant for this discussion.
To get enough ice to make this, if we look at high sec mining only, we need 66,667 Ice to meet the isotopes demand. To meet the Heavy Water need for this, you need 150 ice cubes. To meet the Liquid Ozone you need 300 Ice cubes. So what Slavemaster is saying, is that when you have made those blocks, you will have a surplus of 7500 heavy water.

I'm guessing you missed the high sec postulate, in eve all goods do not moove that easy/freely.

If you do not see this point, I cannot help you understand.

Pax Dei

I hate stupid people

Slavemaster
ICC - Information Control Corporation
#20 - 2012-03-20 09:24:31 UTC
Amen

Oo

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