Market Discussions

Stront markets and Heavy water markets are both niche markets.
Sieged Rorq and POS for Water
Sieged Dread and POS for Stront.

If Dust works based on Sieged dreads, it will spike as well.

Both of these items hinge on CCP cracking down on Bots though. While we all love to hate the bots, if they were removed from EVE tommorow, Ice based mechanics are going to see them more than anything else.

- I'm sure you bought shitloads of cheap water and are trying to spike the price. I can tell you, I have more Stront than I will ever use in 200 life times. I also know to hang on to it because you are right. It has no choice but to go up in price. If it's cheaper than it should be, it's an investment.

Frankly, almost nothing gets wasted in Eve. And for a long time, heavy water has been too cheap to movev (even in high sec) just because so much of it was supplied for the demand. So I believe there were and still are massive stockpiles of heavy water around both intentional and not. I haven't checked the prices, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that heavy water is really, really cheap in ice mining areas far from Jita.

99% of rorqual pilots have forgotten you can use it to compress ore

Considering it had little demand until recently there should be LARGE amounts of it in dusty, rarely used wallet divisions. Your analysis should at least admit its existence.

... This might be true, or are. But, if you look at the marked graph it has been going down for the last 4mounts.
Why nobody cares about heavy water is:

- You need a freighter to haul it. ( 2.2 mil ish = 154 mil (10% of that 15 mil) You will get 49 mil with 10% with trit )
Heavy water its the one with a solid first place that takes the most volume compered to what its worth.

It will go for 60 - 84 for the next mounts, years,
... and is only worth something for the day trader, and with that even for the Op.

Rorquals are constantly sieged in nullsec, they are sieged because that's how they use their industrial cores to generate mining bonuses. They are also constantly used to jump ore/ice from the mining location to lowsec due to their 250k ore bays.

Heavy water is massive to move, but moving things around highsec is no issue at all with freighters. And ice imported to empire is imported in compressed form (which is much more volume-wise than refining it and importing the products). The vast majority of fuel blocks are produced in empire space thus eliminating painful logistics of exporting heavy water to nullsec.

I'd be willing to address your claims of heavy water being a bottleneck, because it's something we've considered. But the numbers indicate that it's not. If you have numbers that you could present that would alter the analysis I will be happy to include them.

Addition: Also, if anything, there are more online towers now than when I generated the estimates for ozone usage (being that was right after the launch of Crucible). Which is when thousands of towers fell offline because they didn't make the fuel switch over in time. A ton of those will be back online now, thus increasing the demand.

We had made educated guesses as the ozone consumption due to jump bridge use in the previous thread.

Ozone estimated jump bridge use: 4.53 to 19.76mil
HW estimated rorqual use: 9.36 to 18.72mil

You could argue that I've over-estimated the number of active rorquals. It seems right now there are 930 active rorqual pilots in the game sitting in the ship. Which is strong evidence that 50-100 is high, it's probably more like 25-50. Which takes the estimates to:

Ozone estimated jump bridge use: 4.53 to 19.76mil
Revised HW estimated rorqual use: 4.68 to 9.36mil

So yes, probably double the ozone consumption for jump bridges compared to HW usage by rorquals. This alone still doesn't explain why ozone is 4-6x more expensive though

i can assure you that most nullsec rorqual pilots do not, in fact, use them for anything remotely related to mining



i wonder how many of those 930 rorquals are used for mining

there's probably more being used for anoms than mining, and far, far more being used for POS logistics than anything else

Let's work with the numbers directly. The more numbers we have backed up by proven sources the better. Unless you can cite a reason or source for your numbers, they seem to be completely fictional.

1.) There are many types of ice, their refined products are not in the same ratios.

- Highsec racial ice (white glaze, blue ice, etc) are in the ratio of 25 ozone, 50 HW, 300 topes, 1 stront.
- Lowsec/Nullsec non-racial ice worth mining (Dark Glitter) is 1000 ozone, 500 HW, 50 stront

This coincides with my earlier statements that nullsec ice produces 2:1 in favor of ozone, while highsec ice is 1:2 in favor of HW.


2.) A fuel block takes 3.75 ozone/HW to produce, not 150 per block (the BPO takes 150 per run producing 40). We had estimated the average tower consumes 2537 ozone/HW per day based on the 25-15-60 s-m-l split with faction and sov bonuses.. This would be 676.6 fuel blocks/day.

An update on the number of online towers is much higher than our original estimate (15,765), our info now places it at 20,365 online towers. By this logic the galaxy consumes around 13.75mil fuel blocks a day taking 51.5mil ozone/HW a day.

I have no clue what you mean by "After and they produce 1 fuel block. Guess what happens. 150 Extra heavy water that is useless. " because that makes no sense. HW is used in equal proportions to ozone in fuel block construction. You then compound this by randomly multiplying your 6mil fuel blocks by 150 to reach a completely implausible number.


3.) With these updated online tower numbers the HW and ozone consumption in the galaxy would be even higher than my first estimate, placing it more as follows:

Ozone estimated use: 58.19 to 77.02 mil/day
HW estimated use: 56.18 to 60.86 mil/day

The ozone estimate includes cynos, jump bridges, and towers. The heavy water includes towers and the downward revised rorqual consumption from post 14.


4.) If as people claim, that it's not worth it to ship HW to Jita for sale, then prices should be driven up even more because the supply is diminished. This argument doesn't work to claim that the price should be lower - unless you're saying people will suddenly start shipping HW to Jita for sale if the price drops.


So why is heavy water doomed to drop to 20/unit when ozone is fairly stable around 360? You could argue that all ice products are over-priced and that ozone is going to tank massively as well - but historically that seems highly unlikely. 18-20 is the ancient value for HW before fuel blocks demanded it's consumption.

Heavy water may not publicly recognized as being used as much as ozone, but all the numbers indicate it's being consumed in fairly decent comparison to ozone. The only way I could see justifying a massive imbalance is if there were far more highsec miners than we predicted (500-800).

Amen