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New dev blog: Price Indices – February 2012

First post
Author
CCP Dr.EyjoG
C C P
C C P Alliance
#61 - 2012-03-17 00:27:17 UTC
Lord Haur wrote:
Quote:
There‘s certainly a lot of money coming from Incursions. Incursion rewards in December amounted to 9.6 trillion ISK, which is an all time high, while the rewards in January and February were 9.0 and 8.7 trillion ISK respectively. That‘s quite a bit of money entering the economy. However, Incursions are not the biggest ISK faucet, bounties are. Bounty prizes paid out in February totalled 33 trillion ISK.


Can we get numbers on the amount of characters recieving Incursion payouts and Bounty prizes? (What I'm actually asking for is the ISK per character for each income source). Sure, Bounty prizes paid out 2.5x more in total, but a LOT more people run anomalies and such.


The economy lecture on Fanfest will have some additional information about Incursions. If you are not there you can either watch it live on the Fanfest stream or on our Youtube channel soon after Fanfest.
CCP Dr.EyjoG
C C P
C C P Alliance
#62 - 2012-03-17 00:31:20 UTC
Cass Lie wrote:
Great informative blog, good to see this kind of data posted gain after the abortion of QEN. However, it would help to know the exact composition of market baskets for the respective indices. I also second the request for the raw data of money supply, or at least the exact method of calculation of the index. If it is not an index the graph is missing units (generally speaking even dimensionless arbitrary units should be noted as such but I guess this is economics).


The basket is updated each month based on trade information from the previous month. See here for more info on our indices.
Galatea Galilei
Nihilistic Mystics
#63 - 2012-03-17 00:34:02 UTC
CCP Dr.EyjoG wrote:
Bienator II wrote:
so, did the money supply through bounties change? If not, it does not realy matter if its the largest piece of the pie or not, incursions or something else can still be the cause for the inflation.


Yes, all NPC bounties are a faucet for the EVE economy. All NPC paid rewards are as well, so Incursions do contribute to the problem but the picture is much bigger and is not solve by just "Nerf Incursions".

But... but... complex problems demand simple answers!

;)
CCP Dr.EyjoG
C C P
C C P Alliance
#64 - 2012-03-17 00:34:14 UTC
Sentient Blade wrote:
Lilliana Stelles wrote:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see why CCP would need to intervene with inflation. It's not something new; the charts clearly show that the entire market has been inflating since day one.


Inflation is positive if it's kept a certain rate; if it goes too low then the market stalls as people wait for products to become cheaper, hence things don't sell, people don't get paid, bad times.

The opposite to that is hyper-inflation where money rapidly becomes worthless and previous efforts end up counting for squat, which is bad in real life as it discourages work, and even worse in a game which demands a huge amount of time investment.



Agreed! Big smile
CCP Dr.EyjoG
C C P
C C P Alliance
#65 - 2012-03-17 00:36:04 UTC
Lilliana Stelles wrote:
Sentient Blade wrote:
Lilliana Stelles wrote:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see why CCP would need to intervene with inflation. It's not something new; the charts clearly show that the entire market has been inflating since day one.


Inflation is positive if it's kept a certain rate; if it goes too low then the market stalls as people wait for products to become cheaper, hence things don't sell, people don't get paid, bad times.

The opposite to that is hyper-inflation where money rapidly becomes worthless and previous efforts end up counting for squat, which is bad in real life as it discourages work, and even worse in a game which demands a huge amount of time investment.



That makes since. But as long as the main sources of ISK in the economy (ratting, incursions), create a linear amount of isk (x million per ship killed or mission completed), then shouldn't inflation also continue to increase at a linear amount?

Maybe I'm just failing to comprehend how we can achieve nonlinear inflation from linear incomes.


That, my friend, is the velocity mentioned in the blog. The same amount of money supply can increase inflation if it simply echanges hands faster. At least that is one of economic monetary theories. Now we can of course debate that .......
CCP Dr.EyjoG
C C P
C C P Alliance
#66 - 2012-03-17 00:44:16 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Dear CCP, can we get some production and destruction numbers as well?

Such as Total Minerals Mined, can be all minerals lumped together in one big number for all I care. A break down of mins from Loot, drone poo and direct mining would be nice to know too. Total Number of Moon goo units produced, can be all units lumped together as one big number. How many units of planetary P0s were generated. How much salvage, total units droped? How much ice was mined?

How many minerals were destroyed by ships blowing up, how much moon goo was destroyed, how much PI materials in terms of P-0s were destroyed. How many ships are sitting in Hangars. How much salvage was destroyed. How much Ice was consumed?

The provided indicies only tell part of the picture, is productivity keeping up with population growth and ISK growth? Is destruction keeping up with population growth? How much hording, or perhaps better phrased, "incendental hording" of materials going on.

Changes in ISK movements, of the total ISK supply, on active accounts, what percentage of that ISK is in escrow on the market. Total value of all markets (sell orders), minus the outliers, over time. Total value of all buy orders, over time.

Other interesting numbers would be changes in PVP related Skill points to industrial skill points. What's the change in ratio over time. Is Industrial SP investment keeping pace with PVP/PVE SP investment.

BPOs from NPCs, is that keeping pace with population growth? How many ships were produced of each class, how is that moving and the ratio of the types over time.


The big question being asked by these numbers is, is productivity keeping pace with population and money supply? Indicies hint that it is, but is it true? Or is something else going on.



Good questions and suggestions. Some of this will be addressed in the lecture next Friday, other stuff we hope to be able to publish in a Devblog soon after Fanfest.
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#67 - 2012-03-17 01:35:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Darth Gustav
CCP Dr.EyjoG wrote:
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Dear CCP, can we get some production and destruction numbers as well?

Such as Total Minerals Mined, can be all minerals lumped together in one big number for all I care. A break down of mins from Loot, drone poo and direct mining would be nice to know too. Total Number of Moon goo units produced, can be all units lumped together as one big number. How many units of planetary P0s were generated. How much salvage, total units droped? How much ice was mined?

How many minerals were destroyed by ships blowing up, how much moon goo was destroyed, how much PI materials in terms of P-0s were destroyed. How many ships are sitting in Hangars. How much salvage was destroyed. How much Ice was consumed?

The provided indicies only tell part of the picture, is productivity keeping up with population growth and ISK growth? Is destruction keeping up with population growth? How much hording, or perhaps better phrased, "incendental hording" of materials going on.

Changes in ISK movements, of the total ISK supply, on active accounts, what percentage of that ISK is in escrow on the market. Total value of all markets (sell orders), minus the outliers, over time. Total value of all buy orders, over time.

Other interesting numbers would be changes in PVP related Skill points to industrial skill points. What's the change in ratio over time. Is Industrial SP investment keeping pace with PVP/PVE SP investment.

BPOs from NPCs, is that keeping pace with population growth? How many ships were produced of each class, how is that moving and the ratio of the types over time.


The big question being asked by these numbers is, is productivity keeping pace with population and money supply? Indicies hint that it is, but is it true? Or is something else going on.



Good questions and suggestions. Some of this will be addressed in the lecture next Friday, other stuff we hope to be able to publish in a Devblog soon after Fanfest.


The ISK earning potential of the average Incursion runner vs. the average Anomaly runner vs. the average Mission runner would be really nice too.

Or if that's impossible, a total number of players who received bounties as compared to the total number of players to receive incursion payouts.

Without these numbers we are looking at figures in a vacuum and relying on folks with a vested interest for "interpretation."

Giving us partial data and implying that is all there is to it, as Soundwave has done with this blog, smacks of omission of valuable content. Forgive us if we cast a dubious glance in his general direction over this.

Put simply: What is the relationship between the proportions of normal "bounty" PVE players to their bounties and the number of incursion runners (who have actually gotten rewards) to their incursion payouts?

If the proportions aren't at least "similar", this is broken and needs serious attention.

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom

Mechael
Tribal Liberation Distribution and Retail
#68 - 2012-03-17 01:56:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Mechael
Bleh. The economy in EVE is screwed up in more ways than I've bothered to count. If we want to turn EVE into the ultimate science fiction simulator, simulating a real economy as well as is possible would be the place to start. EVE does a good job, but not good enough, in this respect. Improvements are needed

The biggest problem, by far, is that things of value are created from nothing. Whether we're talking about bounties, loot, minerals from respawning asteroids (look Mom, the rock grew back!,) PLEX, or Aurum ... the more these things happen, the farther away from a believable economy that co-relates to reality EVE is going to get. Same goes for things of value disappearing into nothing. IE ... isk faucets / isk sinks. Of course, changing this aspect of the game would require a whole lot of work that would make EVE almost unrecognizable from any other game in existence (that I know of.) I think it would be GREAT if it could be pulled off, though. :

That was the root of the problem described in the blog. To get a little more specific to what was being discussed, I'm not at all surprised that PLEX has had an adverse impact on the market. It's also worth noting that while bounties may be the biggest faucet, with regards to inflation it's not the slices of the pie that we're looking at but rather where any increases are coming from. Incursions are new, and pumping over 1/4 of the money that bounties produce into EVE that wasn't there before. All this means is that people are getting more and more money than they used to have. By the laws of supply and demand, the more supply there is of something the less it is worth (unless demand rises equally to supply.) When applied to ISK, which is really just a commodity like any other, this means that when the average joe has more isk than he knows how to properly spend, the value of isk will decrease and therefore prices will rise

Therefore, we need to either increase demand for isk or reduce the supply of isk. I recommend a full blown industry/economy expansion sometime soonish. Winter or next summer maybe. Something that will bring balance to all things related to isk faucets/sinks, supply and demand. Give the people a reason to fight over resources again. That kind of thing

P.S. I'm not proof-reading. This was pretty much stream of consciousness, unedited, so I apologize for types and bad grammar and general unreadability.

**EDIT** Might be a good idea to change things so that the bulk of the ISK faucet goes to people who have a somewhat more economic mindset. I'm suggesting much less value to bounties/incursions/loot and much more value to raw materials. If the industry/trade people were to have the most ISK in the game, I can see only good things coming from it. Let the combat pilots fight over resources, not mindlessly shoot isk/loot dispensers that'll respawn all the time and slowly become more and more worthless.

Whether or not you win the game matters not.  It's if you bought it.

Ryunosuke Kusanagi
#69 - 2012-03-17 03:51:29 UTC
CCP Dr.EyjoG wrote:
Cass Lie wrote:
Great informative blog, good to see this kind of data posted gain after the abortion of QEN. However, it would help to know the exact composition of market baskets for the respective indices. I also second the request for the raw data of money supply, or at least the exact method of calculation of the index. If it is not an index the graph is missing units (generally speaking even dimensionless arbitrary units should be noted as such but I guess this is economics).


The basket is updated each month based on trade information from the previous month. See here for more info on our indices.


HOLY CRAP, when did they let EyjoG out of his box?!?
Zircon Dasher
#70 - 2012-03-17 05:46:50 UTC
CCP Dr.EyjoG wrote:
Some of this will be addressed in the lecture next Friday, other stuff we hope to be able to publish in a Devblog soon after Fanfest.



<3

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.

MacLuven
EL Bernays School of Strategic Communication
#71 - 2012-03-17 05:51:19 UTC  |  Edited by: MacLuven
DrEyjoG, all those likes I just gave you are because you posted.

And because you posted, I offer this merger gift of a graph generated from your data as humble tribute of thanks for your appearance.

Eve Monthly Inflation (CPI) 2009-2012
Adunh Slavy
#72 - 2012-03-17 07:57:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
Mechael wrote:

Therefore, we need to either increase demand for isk or reduce the supply of isk. I recommend a full blown industry/economy expansion sometime soonish. Winter or next summer maybe. Something that will bring balance to all things related to isk faucets/sinks, supply and demand. Give the people a reason to fight over resources again. That kind of thing



One thing that could certainly help is more clear lines of distinction between activities and their rewards from the various faucets while at the same time create the conditions that make everyone reliant upon all other activities.

For example, PI and mining are two activities that have different rewards. There is a good division of labor here, some specialization as well, though more is warranted in my view. The opportunity cost is clearly defined.

But only one of these activities has reliance upon the other. PI has a reliance upon mining, to get the ship to fly to a planet, you must have minerals. But it takes nothing from PI to go mine. PI has a little reliance upon ISK, to pay the taxes and fees, but it needs no ice products, requires no moon goo. The only thing PI consumes on a regular basis is ISK ... it's too simple.

Here's an example of poor division of labor, everyone knows what it is; it has been discussed for years, rat loot. When a player shoots rats, they are participating in more than one sector of the economy. They are mining, they are generating ISK and they are generating salvage. It consumes some minerals in the ship and a paltry amount in ammo, it generates enough minerals to make ammo cost little more than the price of BPO that more than pays for it self over time.

The value, in terms of time, is stolen from other activities and depresses those sectors of the economy. The opportunity cost of shooting rats is not distinct, the division of labor is muddied, the incentive to specialize in mining is decreased, the incentive to specialize in ammo manufacture is decreased - the player is too self reliant. An entire possible industry of "salvaging" is removed ... Perhaps the problem with rats is that rats have bounties at all. Something to think about, ISK can come from other sources just as easily.

Moon goo is a well defined and good industry, it has lots of reliance upon other sectors of the economy. It requires a whole host of activities to function, it pushes some players to specialization so that other players can specialize in other activities; together they may mine the moon at a profit and have time left to go shoot other players in the face.

T2 is an end product of moon goo and POS operation. Just as is T3 production; T3 production of substance requires realiance upon POS use and all that must happen to support a POS - they have reliance upon all those other activities. This kind of depth, though perhaps not the POS, should be added into T1 production as the complexity/meta/tier/size of T1 goes up, it can become more complex and rely upon more kinds of raw materials and more layers of production.

"The greater productivity of work under the division of labor is a unifying influence. It leads men to regard each other as comrades in a joint struggle for welfare, rather than as competitors in a struggle for existence."

- Ludwig Von Mises

By creating more divisions of labor and more opportunities for specialization, players will need to become more reliant upon their friends and more competitive with their rival groups. The market and guns will handle the disputes.

This is the entire concept Eve is based upon, joining up with some friends to make something bigger than your selves and defend it against those who would take it.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Zagdul
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#73 - 2012-03-17 09:11:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Zagdul
Darth Gustav wrote:
Jackie Fisher wrote:
Zircon Dasher wrote:
Darth Gustav wrote:
If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.

Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable.


So if considerably less than 25% of the population is farming wormholes, then, wormholes are obviously more broken than incursions. Since Blue Lewt contributed about 10.4T isk in Feb compared to the 8.6T from incursions (not just highsec incursions).

From twitter on 29th Feb:
John Turbefield ‏ @CCP_Diagoras
Locations of active chars with more than 5m SP just after midnight: High Sec 66.00%, Low sec 7.37%, Null sec 20.73%, Wormhole Space 5.89%


I guess that answers your question then.



Not really.

I am curious to know the breakdown of that 66% and how much of it = bounty and how much of it incursion.

If the number is 5% incursion, then yes, broken, if the number comes back and it's 30% incursion, I'd say its more or less balanced. Furthermore, I REALLY want to see the isk dumps after last month's ban waves. I would imagine the 30 tril injected is drastically reduced.

That 9 tril that was injected was done in space not owned by anyone. On occasion, it passes through the regions I live in, but that's a temporary boost of income. There's not enough tax on the risk vs. reward aspect of things. Null sec dwellers pay out far more in terms of sinks than empire does. Meanwhile our faucets have remained relatively flatlined for quite some time. In empire, when an incursion moves, the people can move to the new one without an issue. In null, many times a neighboring incursion in someone else space will lead to a very expensive ship blowing up.

Furthermore, anyone in null sec doing incursions in the 10bil isk loot pinatas that do incursions right now is a ******. These pinata's modules are being gotten from a lot of low sec ded complexes (4/`10 and lower). The income boost needs to happen in null. Too many alliances rely on moon income alone.


Give me farms and fields.

Dual Pane idea: Click!

CCP Please Implement

Zagdul
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#74 - 2012-03-17 09:19:14 UTC
My argument = there are more sinks in null sec for everyone and less capabilities to make income have been introduced outside removing the tax on PI.

Dual Pane idea: Click!

CCP Please Implement

Ottersmacker
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
#75 - 2012-03-17 09:31:27 UTC
Thanks for the real numbers.

It will be amusing now to watch all of the apriorist inflation religion nuts going full backpedal :)

i just locked an open door.. strange, yet symbolically compelling.

Revolution Rising
Last-Light Holdings
#76 - 2012-03-17 10:21:36 UTC
Am I the only one frustrated at not being able to zoom into those pics?

I can't read them for sh1T

.

Louis deGuerre
The Dark Tribe
#77 - 2012-03-17 10:39:37 UTC
I love this stuff. Moar like this ! P
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#78 - 2012-03-17 11:04:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Darth Gustav wrote:
The ISK earning potential of the average Incursion runner vs. the average Anomaly runner vs. the average Mission runner would be really nice too.

Or if that's impossible, a total number of players who received bounties as compared to the total number of players to receive incursion payouts.
We do have some of those numbers, courtesy of CCP Diagoras, even if they are a mix of a single day and over a month.

In January, some 175k characters ran 6.8 million missions and collected 4.37 trillion ISK in rewards and time bonuses. No number has been given for the amount of bounties collected in those missions, but some of the old omgz-L4-pays-too-much threads arrived at a suggested 1:2.25 ratio between those rewards and the bounties paid out, and if that's true, missions accounted for just under 10 trillion ISK in bountes.

That equates to an average of 2.6M ISK per mission runner per day.

On February 1st, some 1,780 incursion runners collected some 302 billion ISK for an average of 169M ISK per incursion runner for that day. Granted, some other numbers he posted suggested that February 1st was a particularly active day, paying out roughly 15% more than the average, so we should probably reduce the number by that much

That equates to an average of 144M ISK per incursion runner per day.

Both of these activities pay out LP, and in January, 5.7 trillion ISK were sunk into various LP stores. Historically, mission running has had an amount of ISK equal to pretty much all of its mission rewards and time bonuses sunk into LP, and if we assume that this trend still holds true, that means 4.37 of those trillions went to mission LP and 1.33 trillion went into incursion LP.

Mission runners thus sink 805k ISK per runner per day, reducing their net injection to 1.8M ISK per runner per day.
Incursion runners sink a hefty 24M ISK per runner per day, reducing their net injection to 120M ISK per runner per day.

That leaves the rest of the bounty payments, but no numbers have been given for how many anomalies/complexes/belt-ratters there are. A total of 27.03 trillion ISK were injected through bounties in January, and if we choose to believe the mission runner bounty calculation above, it means 17 of those trillions come from ratting in its various forms — that's 548bn a day spread over an unknown number of people. If there are more than 4500 of them on average per day, they injects less per person on average than the incursion runners do; if there are fewer, they inject more.
J3ssica Alba
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#79 - 2012-03-17 11:27:08 UTC
CCP Dr.EyjoG wrote:
Yes, all NPC bounties are a faucet for the EVE economy. All NPC paid rewards are as well, so Incursions do contribute to the problem but the picture is much bigger and is not solve by just "Nerf Incursions".


But it's still incursion's 100% fault if you were to believe all the naysayers /rollseyes

Pity you can't put more in your sig, this is the 3rd dev to say this and I can't quote him
This is my signature. There are many others like it, but this one is mine.  Without me, my signature is useless. Without my signature, I am useless
Lexmana
#80 - 2012-03-17 12:52:07 UTC
J3ssica Alba wrote:
CCP Dr.EyjoG wrote:
Yes, all NPC bounties are a faucet for the EVE economy. All NPC paid rewards are as well, so Incursions do contribute to the problem but the picture is much bigger and is not solve by just "Nerf Incursions".


But it's still incursion's 100% fault if you were to believe all the naysayers /rollseyes

Pity you can't put more in your sig, this is the 3rd dev to say this and I can't quote him

You should try understand what he says but since you seem to have difficulties I will do it for you: It is not enough to just nerf Incursions.