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New dev blog: Price Indices – February 2012

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Sentient Blade
Crisis Atmosphere
Coalition of the Unfortunate
#21 - 2012-03-16 18:25:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Sentient Blade
Lilliana Stelles wrote:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see why CCP would need to intervene with inflation. It's not something new; the charts clearly show that the entire market has been inflating since day one.


Inflation is positive if it's kept a certain rate; if it goes too low then the market stalls as people wait for products to become cheaper, hence things don't sell, people don't get paid, bad times.

The opposite to that is hyper-inflation where money rapidly becomes worthless and previous efforts end up counting for squat, which is bad in real life as it discourages work, and even worse in a game which demands a huge amount of time investment.
Sentient Blade
Crisis Atmosphere
Coalition of the Unfortunate
#22 - 2012-03-16 18:30:20 UTC
*misspost*
Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises
Otherworld Empire
#23 - 2012-03-16 18:38:32 UTC
Never have cake been so cheap!

★★★ Secure 3rd party service ★★★

Visit my in-game channel 'Holy Veldspar'

Twitter @ChribbaVeldspar
Cass Lie
State War Academy
Caldari State
#24 - 2012-03-16 18:40:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Cass Lie
Lilliana Stelles wrote:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see why CCP would need to intervene with inflation. It's not something new; the charts clearly show that the entire market has been inflating since day one.

Eventually, those running Incursions and ratting for bounties will actually be put at a disadvantage, as the value of pure ISK decreases over time.

However, everyone else will notice a negligible change. Mission runners may earn less value from their ISK rewards, but the price of their salvage and loot will increase, along with the tags that they collect and what they get from LP. Researchers and manufacturers will also be relatively unaffected, as their products will increase in price to match the inflating economy.


Where do the charts clearly show that the entire market has been inflating since day one? The PPPI was for instance much higher during the first years. But other than that, you are basically correct, the market is self-correcting. When trit costs one million isk and bounties stay the same, no-one will shoot npcs anymore, no bounties will be injected, prices will deflate, new equilibrium will be reached etc. Some people will be vocal about feeling forced to change their playstyle, but I guess that is much less painful than doing the same in real life.
Lilliana Stelles
#25 - 2012-03-16 18:45:31 UTC
Sentient Blade wrote:
Lilliana Stelles wrote:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see why CCP would need to intervene with inflation. It's not something new; the charts clearly show that the entire market has been inflating since day one.


Inflation is positive if it's kept a certain rate; if it goes too low then the market stalls as people wait for products to become cheaper, hence things don't sell, people don't get paid, bad times.

The opposite to that is hyper-inflation where money rapidly becomes worthless and previous efforts end up counting for squat, which is bad in real life as it discourages work, and even worse in a game which demands a huge amount of time investment.



That makes since. But as long as the main sources of ISK in the economy (ratting, incursions), create a linear amount of isk (x million per ship killed or mission completed), then shouldn't inflation also continue to increase at a linear amount?

Maybe I'm just failing to comprehend how we can achieve nonlinear inflation from linear incomes.

Not a forum alt. 
Jame Jarl Retief
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#26 - 2012-03-16 18:55:24 UTC
After reading the blog, my reaction is "Yes, yes, and?!" In other words, what are you going to do about it in the immediate future?
Gilbaron
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#27 - 2012-03-16 18:56:00 UTC
To what extend can those increased prices be explained by the following factors:


Increased demand for maelstrom, Drakes, 1400mm guns, heavy missile launchers and maybe abbadons, lazers and tier 3 battlecruisers?

Plex prices?

Zydrine speculation?
The Snowman
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#28 - 2012-03-16 18:59:14 UTC
aaaaaaahahaha!

FFUuuuuuuuuuuu people who claim incursions cause inflation hahaha....

In the end it was actually 0.0 carebears running anomolies that was causing inflation.

lolol, this has made my day!

Watch out null sec dwellers.... neerrfffff incoming!! And you can blame your fellow null sec residents for causing such a fuss..

That ladies and gentlmen is what they call an own-goal LOL!
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#29 - 2012-03-16 19:07:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Darth Gustav
The Snowman wrote:
aaaaaaahahaha!

FFUuuuuuuuuuuu people who claim incursions cause inflation hahaha....

In the end it was actually 0.0 carebears running anomolies that was causing inflation.

lolol, this has made my day!

Watch out null sec dwellers.... neerrfffff incoming!! And you can blame your fellow null sec residents for causing such a fuss..

That ladies and gentlmen is what they call an own-goal LOL!



That's idiocy. Bounties have been in Eve all along. Claiming that they're the majority of the ISK faucet is like claiming this game uses pixels. It's a given, and it's borderline irresponsible to not compare ISK injection pre-Incursions to ISk injection post-incursions.

Any other comparison is laughable, as Incursions are clearly broken, while bounties have functioned properly more or less since the beginning of the game.

The high-sec crowd is ultra fond of pointing out how high-sec is the population center of Eve. They are said to outnumber the null-sec players by more than four to one. Therefore, there are four times as many high-sec dwellers earning bounties as there are null-sec dwellers. Granted, each area will have players who do not engage in bounty-harvesting PVE, but claiming this situation is purely the fault of null-sec is utterly ridiculous.

High-sec bounties have a considerable impact on ISK injection, even if the bounty ticks themselves may be lower.

Don't you think CCP would look foolish if they admitted their precious Incursions were breaking the game?

This is an obvious sham.

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom
Liberty Eternal
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#30 - 2012-03-16 19:10:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Liberty Eternal
Andrea Griffin wrote:
For those of us who are less versed in economic matters, what I take away from this is that there is inflation and that I should stick all of my liquid isk into goods instead. C/D?


No, there are two types of inflation. One is monetary inflation, where the amount of money [isk] increases. The other is price inflation, where the price of goods increases.

The article points to the fact that money supply has increased massively [thirteenfold] while prices have not increased. They have in fact declined a little - although recently prices have started to increase, it is only by single-digit percentage points [compared to the 1,300% increase in money supply].


However, without actual data it is hard to judge what is really going on or to make predictions about price movements in the future. The short-term price trend is slightly upwards, but the overall long-term pressure has always been downwards.

So unless there is a fundamental change in game mechanics, don't go putting all your isk into real goods just yet. But do be alert to a possible change in game mechanics which might cause huge amounts of isk to bum-rush into the system and drive up prices.
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#31 - 2012-03-16 19:20:41 UTC
Liberty Eternal wrote:
Andrea Griffin wrote:
For those of us who are less versed in economic matters, what I take away from this is that there is inflation and that I should stick all of my liquid isk into goods instead. C/D?


No, there are two types of inflation. One is monetary inflation, where the amount of money [isk] increases. The other is price inflation, where the price of goods increases.

The article points to the fact that money supply has increased massively [thirteenfold] while prices have not increased. They have in fact declined a little - although recently prices have started to increase, it is only by single-digit percentage points [compared to the 1,300% increase in money supply].


However, without actual data it is hard to judge what is really going on or to make predictions about price movements in the future. The short-term price trend is slightly upwards, but the overall long-term pressure has always been downwards.

So unless there is a fundamental change in game mechanics, don't go putting all your isk into real goods just yet. But do be alert to a possible change in game mechanics which might cause huge amounts of isk to bum-rush into the system and drive up prices.


It seems like he said that ISK that is just made but sits there isn't all that terribly interesting to the economy. What matters is the ISK that's actually used - which is why he went into such laboring over the velocity. Basically: the more people use their accumulated wealth, the higher the price inflation is going to go.

I've been doing some thinking, and it seems to me that a large part of the recent price inflation may be the result of people getting back into the market after resubbing in Crucible after ragequitting in Incarna. The thing about it is that that I would normally expect that to be a temporary price increase, but the amount of available currency may mean that it is more permanent ... its not like anyone has any trouble paying for stuff as it is.

I'm also very curious what amount of that ISK supply just sits in market escrow.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.
Adunh Slavy
#32 - 2012-03-16 19:28:25 UTC
Dear CCP, can we get some production and destruction numbers as well?

Such as Total Minerals Mined, can be all minerals lumped together in one big number for all I care. A break down of mins from Loot, drone poo and direct mining would be nice to know too. Total Number of Moon goo units produced, can be all units lumped together as one big number. How many units of planetary P0s were generated. How much salvage, total units droped? How much ice was mined?

How many minerals were destroyed by ships blowing up, how much moon goo was destroyed, how much PI materials in terms of P-0s were destroyed. How many ships are sitting in Hangars. How much salvage was destroyed. How much Ice was consumed?

The provided indicies only tell part of the picture, is productivity keeping up with population growth and ISK growth? Is destruction keeping up with population growth? How much hording, or perhaps better phrased, "incendental hording" of materials going on.

Changes in ISK movements, of the total ISK supply, on active accounts, what percentage of that ISK is in escrow on the market. Total value of all markets (sell orders), minus the outliers, over time. Total value of all buy orders, over time.

Other interesting numbers would be changes in PVP related Skill points to industrial skill points. What's the change in ratio over time. Is Industrial SP investment keeping pace with PVP/PVE SP investment.

BPOs from NPCs, is that keeping pace with population growth? How many ships were produced of each class, how is that moving and the ratio of the types over time.


The big question being asked by these numbers is, is productivity keeping pace with population and money supply? Indicies hint that it is, but is it true? Or is something else going on.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#33 - 2012-03-16 19:40:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Darth Gustav
Any chance we can get data mining on ISK injection per capita?

Meaningless tripe about bounties is totally misleading and was deliberately phrased as such.

If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.

Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable.

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom
Ryunosuke Kusanagi
#34 - 2012-03-16 19:41:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Ryunosuke Kusanagi
I feel the need to weigh in here


Okay is there a problem with inflation of course

Incursions was released Nov. 2010, which correlates with the small dip in the end of the graph on this blog post.

Population until Q2 2010 (pulled from Omnis Arcanum of EVE blog) (note I do not know if this is pure tranquility, or taking into account Serenity as well

as of 1900 EVE time 16March2012 there are 40,000 accounts logged onto Tranquility. I don't however know the population distribution of eve Null, Low, high sec. Perhaps Diagoras can provide details

Mission rewards paid out in Feb: 2,470,815,985,076 ISK. Mission bonuses: 2,346,410,541,970 ISK. -- John "Diagoras" Turbefield, Twitter, 2Mar2012, 0100 EVE time

ISK earnt from NPC bounties in Feb: 32,083,329,999,805 ISK -- Diagoras, 2Mar2012, 2130

8,566,015,400,900 ISK paid out in Incursion rewards in February. --- Diagoras 3Mar2012, 1530

So by those numbers alone, yes, there is a lot coming in from bounties, again, I do not know the distribution of those numbers across Hi/Low/Null sec.



Now, here is a problem, with the latest (?) data dump of Sisi(?) there was something that caught my eye, and yes it's relevant. Rogue Drone bounties. The smart, logical way to take this, is that they are removing the alloys and adding bounties to rogue drones. BUT... with this discussion, I think it is actually the reverse that is supposed to happen, Add loot drops, and lower bounties, not add to them. OFC add higher level drops the lower one goes security system wise, you still want to incentivise going into low-null sec, or else you risk overpopulating High sec, and abandoning null. Pastebin in question

*edit for spelling*
VaMei
Meafi Corp
#35 - 2012-03-16 19:53:56 UTC
When it comes to measuring inflation, the data I'd really like to see is trends for elite modules and bottleneck moongoo.

Player activity (and bot activity) will greatly impact the supply of minerals, Ice, PI, LP goods, low-end moongoo, and T3 materials; but the supply side of tech & officer mods is pretty much fixed, meaning that long term changes in those prices is real money chasing scarce commodities.
Zircon Dasher
#36 - 2012-03-16 20:02:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Zircon Dasher
Since folks are asking for more info I figured I would place my request for the Fanfest presentation:

1) Breakdown of faucet and sink activity by security (high/low/null/WH)
2) Faucets and sinks by activity over the past 12 months

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.
JitaPriceChecker2
Doomheim
#37 - 2012-03-16 20:10:50 UTC
Murashu wrote:
I'd love to see how many pilots were involved in earning the 9 trillion ISK (incursions) compared to the 33 trillion isk (bounties). Posting how much ISK the two activities brought in without the other info is just showing a small part of the story.


This again for CCP to read
Zircon Dasher
#38 - 2012-03-16 20:10:52 UTC
Darth Gustav wrote:
If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.

Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable.


So if considerably less than 25% of the population is farming wormholes, then, wormholes are obviously more broken than incursions. Since Blue Lewt contributed about 10.4T isk in Feb compared to the 8.6T from incursions (not just highsec incursions).

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.
JitaPriceChecker2
Doomheim
#39 - 2012-03-16 20:12:50 UTC
Zircon Dasher wrote:
Darth Gustav wrote:
If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.

Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable.


So if considerably less than 25% of the population is farming wormholes, then, wormholes are obviously more broken than incursions. Since Blue Lewt contributed about 10.4T isk in Feb compared to the 8.6T from incursions (not just highsec incursions).


Last time i checked there is no concord in wormholes.
Zircon Dasher
#40 - 2012-03-16 20:19:38 UTC  |  Edited by: Zircon Dasher
JitaPriceChecker2 wrote:
Last time i checked there is no concord in wormholes.


Last time I checked concord did not protect anyone.

Its cool though.

Nobody wants thier little piece of the pie decreased. Better to make the other guy's piece look tastier.

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.