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Mad inflation

First post First post
Author
kla samon
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#381 - 2012-03-13 15:39:10 UTC
JitaPriceChecker2 wrote:
Azure Moonlight wrote:
If currently 16% of all the ISK from all activities available in Eve comes from Incursions, I cant see how anyone can claim that THIS is not an issue. Or are 16% of all players (not characters, mind you) involved in Incursion running? I guess not.


Learn math.

Before incursion.

per 1bil isk injected per month
990 mil was sinked.

inflation 1% monthly - data from old days

After incursions per 1.190b isk injected per month
990 mil sinked + cost for lp concord store( how much is actually that i dont know, dont have data ), lets assume its 60mil per 1.190bil

That means after incursion inflation has risen from 1% up to 8,5% monthly
You still dont see the problem ???

It is very rough estimate but the point is it is 16% that wasn't there before, it is huge enough number to screw things up.


this
Cass Lie
State War Academy
Caldari State
#382 - 2012-03-13 15:48:55 UTC
Grumpy Owly wrote:
Cass Lie wrote:
Would be interesting to see how much of the (mineral) inflation has to do with the relatively recent political upheaval in the drone regions, eg. it would be nice to see whether there was a drop in the drone goo being imported to jita and how it correlates to mineral prices and in extension to goods prices. It seems to me non-mineral related goods (implants, rigs, datacores, etc.) may not be experiencing such a harsh inflation, or at least are catching up very slowly. Plex is a different issue entirely.


I beleive somone already drew the correlation you are indicating:

http://jestertrek.blogspot.com/2012/02/abcs.html


Thanks, I somehow missed that one. Still no hard data though, but the conclusion seems logical. There probably are "issues" on both sides of the supply/demand dynamic.
Adunh Slavy
#383 - 2012-03-13 15:54:05 UTC
Another interesting article, timely for Eve. When reading this, not all of it can apply to Eve, but note that ISK is more like gold in the essay than the other types cited. It may give some insight to those with a handful of clues.

http://mises.org/daily/5953/Is-Inflation-about-General-Increases-in-Prices

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Luba Cibre
Global Song Setup
#384 - 2012-03-13 16:02:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Luba Cibre
Ryan Startalker Zhang wrote:
Would be really interesting to see numbers on nullsec anomalies bounty income. And of course, progress on batting botters.

If you do Havens and Sanctums, you'll get about 50-60m Isk/h before taxes == 42-51m Isk/h after taxes.
But, if there's any neut in local, you should dock, because anomalies are scannable with the ship scanner (that take only 10 sec), so the first thing everyone do, is scanning for sanctums / havens and headshot them, if they're looking for ganks.

"Nothing essential happens in the absence of noise." 

Tarryn Nightstorm
Hellstar Towing and Recovery
#385 - 2012-03-13 16:42:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Tarryn Nightstorm
Grukni wrote:
[...] W-space Sleepers maybe?


Not even close:

The biggest money-maker from Sleepers--Melted Nanoribbons--comes from salvaging the wrecks, and like all salvage, how much you get/if you get any at all is random. You can do sites for days on end and get little or nothing, especially in C3-down wormholes. (I've heard rumblings recently about a possible stealth nerf to this as well--random means random, and that there will be dry spells, but where the null-scums' pet devs are concerned, anything is possible...Roll)

And also, you are under very real, constant risk of getting the expensive boats you must use to do the sites urp-sploded--I don't mean by the NPCs, either, though that is also a risk: Sleepers hit hard--plus logistical bottleneck of getting them out of w-space, plus the possibility of getting suicide-ganked on the way to market.

Most of the money that comes from Sleepers is not created as new ISK, except for the "Blue Loot," which is sold (usually) to NPC buy-orders, but this latter is a tiny fraction of what comprises the money from wormholes. Everything else is traded between players, so no new ISK created, just existing ISK moved from one person to another.

No:

Wormholes are, arguably, the only high-end PvE content (and in general) that isn't hopelessly broken at present.

So, naturally, I expect them to be nerfed into complete uselessness--and made easier for nullsec alliances to invade, let's not forget (ref.: the pants-on-head idiotic "wormhole mass-stabiliser" idea from the December meeting-minutes)!--anytime now, for reasons stated above.

[/cynicism + increasing ennui with this crap game and its second-rate developer]

E: I mean, they can't even keep their god-damned forums working for more than a month or two, FFS...RollUgh

Star Wars: the Old Republic may not be EVE. But I'll take the sound of dual blaster-pistols over "NURVV CLAOKING NAOW!!!11oneone!!" any day of the week.

MacLuven
EL Bernays School of Strategic Communication
#386 - 2012-03-13 17:19:18 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Another interesting article, timely for Eve. When reading this, not all of it can apply to Eve, but note that ISK is more like gold in the essay than the other types cited. It may give some insight to those with a handful of clues.

http://mises.org/daily/5953/Is-Inflation-about-General-Increases-in-Prices


I read it. I just wanted to let you know. I puked in my mouth repeatedly (Austrian School...oh just wretched again). I'm not sure Eve is ready for a debate on economic theories (I'm not sure Economics can handle it), but there's useful stuff to be mined out of that article (pun intended).

It did get me interested on why you think we can't have hyperinflation in Eve. I tend to agree with you. But I'd like to read your thoughts.
Cearain
Plus 10 NV
#387 - 2012-03-13 18:00:58 UTC
Skydell wrote:
CCP Soundwave wrote:
No, that's incorrect. The massive jumps we see in terms of isk almost always come when we make adjustments to anomalies. The last change we did was pretty drastically increase the isk floor across the board on anomalies and the isk coming into the economy jumped after that.



That in fact makes the most sense. The Signature Nerf was paired with an anomoly buff. After that change there was no need to scan down signature Plex, you could do it all from Onboard. It hinged on the desire of the community to prevent ISK making and that desire never came about. Me being willing and motivated to sit in hostile space and lock down thier PvE Ops. Because that never happened, PvE Ops could be run without the PvP glass barriers.

The trouble with building your game on griefer mechanics is, griefers want attention more than anything else and AFK cloaking a system 26 jumps from high sec won't get them near as much attention as blowing up Hulks in .5 high-sec. You over estimated the griefers willingness to work for thier grief.



It's pretty silly to automatically agree with soundwave when you don't know what the actual numbers he is refering to are.

Unless you made up your mind regardless of the facts, that is.




Make faction war occupancy pvp instead of pve https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=53815&#post53815

Thomas Gilmour
Doomheim
#388 - 2012-03-13 19:08:14 UTC
Fixing EVE's economy would be stupid easy, they just don't have the balls to do it.
Find every account that logged in, in space, doing stuff (not just sitting and/or on AP), for more than 75% of the time.
Ban them.
Ban every account associated with them.
Ban those CCs, ban their addresses, ban their emails, ban everything about them.
Do it again the next week.

Incursions aren't the problem. Bounties aren't the problem, 23.5/7 bots are the problem. Banning 2% of them one time isn't the solution, banning all of them is the solution.
Lakshata Chawla
State War Academy
Caldari State
#389 - 2012-03-13 19:17:56 UTC
Thomas Gilmour wrote:
Fixing EVE's economy would be stupid easy, they just don't have the balls to do it.
Find every account that logged in, in space, doing stuff (not just sitting and/or on AP), for more than 75% of the time.


Welp, there goes my 2 accounts since I live in a wormhole.
MacLuven
EL Bernays School of Strategic Communication
#390 - 2012-03-13 19:35:54 UTC
Lakshata Chawla wrote:
Thomas Gilmour wrote:
Fixing EVE's economy would be stupid easy, they just don't have the balls to do it.
Find every account that logged in, in space, doing stuff (not just sitting and/or on AP), for more than 75% of the time.


Welp, there goes my 2 accounts since I live in a wormhole.


It would be great for way to control the proliferation of Titans and Super Carriers though. Cool
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#391 - 2012-03-13 19:49:55 UTC
Tarryn Nightstorm wrote:

Wormholes are, arguably, the only high-end PvE content (and in general) that isn't hopelessly broken at present.


WHs, L5s, 0.0 Pirate L4s, and FW missions all high end PVE content that isn't hopelessly broken in terms of ISK faucets. The key is that the majority of the player's income comes strictly from player trading. You have to remember that there are ISK faucets and having ISK flow through the economy at a reasonable rate is a good thing.

FWIW, you should be able to personally gauge 99% of the WH ISK faucet by checking out historic trade volumes for blue loot in the larger market hub regions.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.

Laura Dexx
Blue Canary
Watch This
#392 - 2012-03-13 19:55:27 UTC
CCP Soundwave wrote:
highonpop wrote:
CCP Soundwave wrote:
We're looking at the economy constantly and looking at our options.

One of the fundamental issues we have is that we're making everyone "better" at making money, so the effect kind of snowballs. Right now we're considering everything form increasing taxes to lowering bounties across the board.



or maybe do the 1 thing you KNOW will regulate the flow...

Switching Incursions from ISK to LP payout...


Or tell the Sansha to go home...


Incursions are not a big issue in terms of isk globally.


Instead of looking at it globally, look at it per-person. Good luck getting more than 50-60m/h missioning or ratting, but no problem getting 100m+ /h /person doing Incursions.

Fixing one issue and ignoring another is not fixing, it's a band aid.
Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#393 - 2012-03-13 20:45:25 UTC
Laura Dexx wrote:
CCP Soundwave wrote:
highonpop wrote:
CCP Soundwave wrote:
We're looking at the economy constantly and looking at our options.

One of the fundamental issues we have is that we're making everyone "better" at making money, so the effect kind of snowballs. Right now we're considering everything form increasing taxes to lowering bounties across the board.



or maybe do the 1 thing you KNOW will regulate the flow...

Switching Incursions from ISK to LP payout...


Or tell the Sansha to go home...


Incursions are not a big issue in terms of isk globally.


Instead of looking at it globally, look at it per-person. Good luck getting more than 50-60m/h missioning or ratting, but no problem getting 100m+ /h /person doing Incursions.

Fixing one issue and ignoring another is not fixing, it's a band aid.

Not saying that Incursions don't need adjusted, but considering the entire draw of incursions is partially dependent on making the effort of grouping worthwhile, if they don't make more than solo activities, what is the point?
mackluver
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#394 - 2012-03-13 21:04:18 UTC  |  Edited by: mackluver
I am a numbers person. Calculations and numbers seem to be the best way to put things in perspective. I've decided to put some numbers together, as this thread seemed to be lacking them. :)

Mining in high-sec with my maxed hulk will net me about 25 mil an hour if my alt is running my maxed Orca bonuses. The literal max is 27 mil where I mined in Minmatar space. I knock a couple mil off for loss due to wasted mining cycles. While this is clearly not incredable income, it's convenient for the level of safety (ignore ganking for now, i'll get to that.)

Now, the alt who flies the orca can also sport a maxed rattlesnake. When I do lvl 4 missions, i can scrape about 40 mil an hour with my mining toon following in a noctis. I understand more can be made, but I won't go into blizting, etc. as it seems clear that it's not the point to missions and I get the impression that CCP agrees.

As for exploration, ideally i can be the best income by far, as on occasions I can make average 60 mil from a few good sites in poorly explored constelations.

as for null-sec...

Mining arkonor, I max out at about 50 mil, literal 54 mil but again i knock a bit off for mining cycle imperfection. Same deal with a maxed Orca, maxed Rorqual can net you another 5 mil an hour.

Ratting in belts with the occasional faction spawn ignored, and disregarding the use of capitals, I can squeeze about 50 mil an hour in good bounty space with the system to myself in order to chain 1+ mil BS spawns. This disregards the loot, as I don't salvage in null, but say it's another 10 mil in good circumastances so 60 mil/hour altogether.

Now i take that same ship into havens/sanctums, I'm looking at closer to 90 mil an hour, again not using caps for reasons I will touch on later.

Above all, the biggest income I have generated in the game comes now....

Doing 8/10 - 10/10 Plexes, I could score as much as 600 mil in an hour, that's with an alt in a Logi so you could say 300 mil split between 2 people. of course, you can find the occasional crap plex, or the occasional OMGWTF smart bomb drop at well over a bil.

Recap time
high-sec mining <27 mil/hour
high-sec missions (level 4's) +- 40 mil/hour
0.0 mining < 55 mil/hour
0.0 ratting +- 60 mil/hour
0.0 anoms +- 90 mil/hour
High DED plexing 100 mil - 3 bil/ hour, averaging 300 mil/hour

So the topic of discusion is inflation, leading to "we hate incursions", leading to "we hate leet null-sec people" leading to, "can't we just blame the bots?"

I am primarily a builder. I started as a miner. I will say that the high-sec missions vs mining is fair. Why do you ask? well, both involve shooting things, but one involves shooting things that shoot back. Mission runners should get more per hour than miners. If you measured someone's interaction by monitoring key-strokes and mouse clicks, it would be clear that mission ratting is alot more work than mining.

0.0 seems mostly balanced in itself. my miner and my ratter are both intensively skilled, so it's reasonable for the 2 proffesions to be able to make similar income. Anoms are more difficult, and therefore deserve more return.
Plexes are where 0.0 shows an unbalance. Mining offers no officer drops or rare bpc's. This is partly made up for in the sheer rarity of good DED plexes, but it would be fair to bring similar opportunities to mining...
perhaps a new higher density asteroid in hard to find grav sites? Perhaps a drop that only occurs on chance from a completely mined out grav site? that would offer greater risk=reward for mining, as mining out a complete grav site which is balanced with all ore from veld to ark (sov grav sites for example) is a tedious and potentially unrewarding endeavor compared to cherry picking rocks from belt to belt.

Incursions are the hot topic as it were, and I have not participated in any. All I have is speculation from what others have posted, and to be blunt, having anything in the safety of high-sec that can generate more than any reasonably farmable activity in 0.0 is simply obsurd. If EVE is supposed to be about risk=reward, high-sec incursions are blasphemous. It would be reasonable to tone them down from the 100 mil/hour people speak of to maybe 45-50 mil/hour tops. That would make them comparable to belt ratting versus anoms in 0.0.

I have done everything from mining and manufacturing to missions to exploration. I've done all of these things in both empire and null-sec space. In 4 years of EVE i've seen prices skyrocket on many items/goods and sometimes it was dependent on updates or expansions while other times it was economy related. All I can gather from the spiking price of plexes, and general economic disorder of the past 12 months is that it can be easily speculated to be incursion related. Anyone who refuses to acknowledge that possibility is misguided at best.

quick closing for some of the things i dodged earlier...
Ganking. If someone has been convicted of a violent crime, safe to say they're not going to be allowed to shop in a gun store for a while. It's nice that concord warns and then shoots Leet flashy reds in high-sec, but the whole 'hide your ship in your buddies orca' trick kinda sounds exploitish to me... Also, stargates can deny access to people after they aggress, but Concord can't set the stargates to deny flashy red access to high-sec altogether? I say, you get to -2.51, concordikened for locking a player in high-sec. get to -5, not getting through the gate into high-sec. "but what about those inocent people who don't know you can't fight in high-sec?" well, they would learn thouroughly as they fought to bring their sec-status back up.

Capitals in PVE... Come on now, I know CCP didn't make titans and dreads so they could 2 shot angel BS's. Capitals are for PVP. I say, if capitals go to anoms or plexes alone, they should get the same response they do in wormhole space. a lossmail.
Doomhowler II Augustus
Incestuous Cult of Paranoid Swamp People
#395 - 2012-03-13 21:29:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Doomhowler II Augustus

So this is the source of the terribly misguided posts. No wonder.

Enjoy the tanking gold price, so long o/

Once you get over the shock, maybe you can think about where the guaranteed value of pixel-ISK comes from and implement it to an improved understanding of the real world (it's strikingly similar to eve in its basics once you look past the backwards illusions and fairy-tales of gold mining and robinson crusoe's coconut barter that you have been reading)
Adunh Slavy
#396 - 2012-03-13 22:06:31 UTC
Doomhowler II Augustus wrote:
So this is the source of the terribly misguided posts. No wonder.


So why don't you point out where they are wrong, or is that too much effort and risk? It's just easier to say wrong and not present an argument, isn't it?

Doomhowler II Augustus wrote:

Enjoy the tanking gold price, so long o/


You mean the gold that has rarely dropped below its 200 day moving average in the past 10 years? That gold?

Doomhowler II Augustus wrote:

... maybe you can think about where the guaranteed value of pixel-ISK comes from ...


Why don't explain it your self instead of blowing your hot air. Oh let me guess, you're full of crap and too lazy.

As for your childish insults, **** you too, and stop slobbering all over Krugman's ****. Have a nice day

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Two step
Aperture Harmonics
#397 - 2012-03-13 22:21:52 UTC
I actually wrote up a blog post with a pretty complete list of the sources and sinks, based on Diagoras' tweets:

http://twostep4csm.blogspot.com/2012/03/its-econmony-stupid.html

CSM 7 Secretary CSM 6 Alternate Delegate @two_step_eve on Twitter My Blog

Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#398 - 2012-03-13 22:24:38 UTC
mackluver wrote:

as for null-sec...

Mining arkonor, I max out at about 50 mil, literal 54 mil but again i knock a bit off for mining cycle imperfection. Same deal with a maxed Orca, maxed Rorqual can net you another 5 mil an hour.

Ratting in belts with the occasional faction spawn ignored, and disregarding the use of capitals, I can squeeze about 50 mil an hour in good bounty space with the system to myself in order to chain 1+ mil BS spawns. This disregards the loot, as I don't salvage in null, but say it's another 10 mil in good circumastances so 60 mil/hour altogether.


Mining is a mineral faucet and ISK sink (via market and construction costs).

Quote:

Now i take that same ship into havens/sanctums, I'm looking at closer to 90 mil an hour, again not using caps for reasons I will touch on later.


This is both an ISK and mineral faucet via bounties and loot drops.

Quote:

Above all, the biggest income I have generated in the game comes now....

Doing 8/10 - 10/10 Plexes, I could score as much as 600 mil in an hour, that's with an alt in a Logi so you could say 300 mil split between 2 people. of course, you can find the occasional crap plex, or the occasional OMGWTF smart bomb drop at well over a bil.


This is a smallish ISK faucet (bounties) combined with a smallish ISK sink (market taxes on the loot drop).

Quote:

Recap time
high-sec mining <27 mil/hour
high-sec missions (level 4's) +- 40 mil/hour
0.0 mining < 55 mil/hour
0.0 ratting +- 60 mil/hour
0.0 anoms +- 90 mil/hour
High DED plexing 100 mil - 3 bil/ hour, averaging 300 mil/hour

So the topic of discusion is inflation, leading to "we hate incursions", leading to "we hate leet null-sec people" leading to, "can't we just blame the bots?"


Its cool to discuss various ISK/hr opportunities (and I encourage you too) but making 500M ISK/hr doing exploration injects far less ISK into the economy than making 500M ISK/hr doing Incursions or Anoms. Think about where your ISK comes from - from another player (via trading) or from the game itself (via a bounty or reward payout).

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.

Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#399 - 2012-03-13 22:25:33 UTC
Two step wrote:
I actually wrote up a blog post with a pretty complete list of the sources and sinks, based on Diagoras' tweets:

http://twostep4csm.blogspot.com/2012/03/its-econmony-stupid.html


May as well source the tweets just to keep the rabid people from raging.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.

Adunh Slavy
#400 - 2012-03-13 22:29:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Adunh Slavy
MacLuven wrote:

I read it. I just wanted to let you know. I puked in my mouth repeatedly (Austrian School...oh just wretched again). I'm not sure Eve is ready for a debate on economic theories (I'm not sure Economics can handle it), but there's useful stuff to be mined out of that article (pun intended).

It did get me interested on why you think we can't have hyperinflation in Eve. I tend to agree with you. But I'd like to read your thoughts.



I'm not concerned about your bodily functions.

Short version of why Eve can't have systemic hyperinflation is basically two things.

One, as more players enter the game and progress, not only do they generate ISK, their productive capacity and output also tend to increase, keeping the ratio of money to goods more or less aligned.

The other reason is, barring any serious screw ups by CCP, ISK added to the monetary base, over a given period, decreases as a percentage of the base in each subsequent period.

Using a very simple model, suppose the entire base were 100 ISK. And suppose the total ISK generating capacity of all players in a period were 10 ISK. In the first period the players can increase the base by 10%. In the next period it would be 9.09%, then 8.33%, 7.69%, etc. The model of course does not take into account growth in the user base, skill points (offset by productive capacity), velocity changes and changes CCP can make, but does illustrate the point.

The real world on the other hand, to get anything useful out of inflating purposefully (not to mention servicing existing debt) demands ever increasing additions to the money supply This is an exponential growth curve. Sooner or later the bucket will be full.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt