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EVE Inflation is being driven by structural factors

Author
Jas Dor
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2012-03-12 20:28:18 UTC
Small things do not drive overall inflation. Incursions are a bright sparkly object that every idiot in the galaxy is pointing to as the cause of inflation. This even though CCPs released numbers show incursions as a minor issue, and CCP has called incursions a minor issue, people continuing to harp on it. This is distracting from more important discussions. Put bluntly, incursion runners are a bunch of noobs using faction gear to make up for low SPs. Simply put, people feel like they're making good isk per hour running incursions because they have no idea how much their shiny ships could generated in level 4s, and are loosing track of how much time they are spending because they're enjoying being in fleets.

The structural reasons for eve inflation seem to be:

1. Removal of the POS fuel isk sink.
2. Lack of new players to expand the economic base.
3. Increasing number of SPs allowing people to kill large rats faster.
4. Decreasing ability to arbitage items between regions due to suicide ganking.
5. Massive cost increases in the raw resource basket due to a. suicide ganking of miners, b. banning of mining bots and c. increased costs in moving reprocessed minerals from mission hubs (due to suicide ganking).
6. We are transitioning from T2 being at the top of the commonly used mod pile to faction being at the top of the pile.

Of these factors I think the most important ones are 1. The removal of the POS fuel isk sink and 2. the increasing difficulty with arbitage. Quadruple the EHP of barges and freighters and you'll drop the inflation rate.
Johnny Marzetti
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#2 - 2012-03-12 20:31:28 UTC
[citation needed]
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#3 - 2012-03-12 20:34:01 UTC
Incursions have injected a large amount of isk into a system already suffering from inflation. The result is we now have a massive problem with inflation.
Johnny Marzetti
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#4 - 2012-03-12 20:36:11 UTC
No no no, dumping baskets full of currency into the economy doesn't cause inflation, preventing people from autopiloting freighters full of loot to Jita causes inflation.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#5 - 2012-03-12 20:39:21 UTC
Ah yes how silly of meOops
Serene Repose
#6 - 2012-03-12 20:40:48 UTC
Be all this as it may, there's no governance of currency in circulation which will inevitably lead to inflation, or all economic models are wrong, and a few EVE geniuses qualify for the Nobel. Your list is rather partial, and what CCP claims, in relation to what they actually understand makes quoting them moot. EVEflation, or madflation is an inevitable outcome of this model.

We must accommodate the idiocracy.

Jas Dor
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#7 - 2012-03-12 20:57:22 UTC
Johnny Marzetti wrote:
No no no, dumping baskets full of currency into the economy doesn't cause inflation, preventing people from autopiloting freighters full of loot to Jita causes inflation.


You have made two mistakes. First you are assuming that incursions are "baskets full of currency." Incursions about equal the isk paid out from mission rewards and time bonuses. They come nowhere near close to the isk from bounties (and keep in mind I believe those are only mission bounty numbers, not total bounty numbers).

Also, you have failed to take into account opportunity cost. Are incursion runners making more than they could from level IV missions. People may be making more isk because they are playing more hours in incursions. From all the information we see however incursions are not a major cause of inflation. Indeed considering that LP store buys are a major isk sink, incursions (with their shiny fleets) may actually be isk neutral or negative when compared to the same amount of level IV mission running.

On the other hand a bunch of people on this forum seem utterly convinced that no amount of suicide ganking can have a structural effect on the economy. This at the same time they are going off on risk v. reward not realizing that by creating larger risks in high sec their will be a market increase in price (reward) to compensate.
Terminal Insanity
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#8 - 2012-03-12 21:00:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Terminal Insanity
Blowing ships up directly removes isk from circulation. You're literally blowing it up.

Your entire point is void (Due To Suicide Ganking)

"War declarations are never officially considered griefing and are not a bannable offense, and it has been repeatedly stated by the developers that the possibility for non-consensual PvP is an intended feature." - CCP

Grey Azorria
Federation Industries
#9 - 2012-03-12 21:01:30 UTC
~20% of all isk injected into the economy is minor!?!

And yes, incursions make more isk per hour than lvl4s. Though you are correct in stating that bounties/mission rewards need hit with the nerf bat in some shape or form.

Do not argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.

Sometimes when I post, I look at my sig and wish that I'd follow my own god damned advice.

Gogela
Epic Ganking Time
CODE.
#10 - 2012-03-12 21:08:43 UTC
Duplicate thread is redundant.

Signatures should be used responsibly...

Jas Dor
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2012-03-12 21:18:14 UTC
Terminal Insanity wrote:
Blowing ships up directly removes isk from circulation. You're literally blowing it up.

Your entire point is void (Due To Suicide Ganking)


No blowing up a ship creates isk from the insurance payout. The industrialist who built the ship still has the isk that was paid for it. On the other hand the price of goods will increase as somebody needs to be paid for the increased gank risk in moving goods (assuming you popped a hauler).

On the effect of incursions on the economy, you realize that isk will come in somehow. If 20% of the PvE time in the game is being spent in incursions, then the fact that 20% of the PvE income comes from incursions is not a big deal (BTW your numbers are wrong, I believe that bounties number is only the bounties from missions not from ratting/plexing).

From what CCP is saying they want to tweak incursions a bit, but the PvE time invested to total payout is not badly out of whack (at least when LFG and transist times are taken into account).

Incursions are a bright shiny object that people have latched onto. CCP has flat out said that incursionsare not a major factor in the inflation problem..

VaMei
Meafi Corp
#12 - 2012-03-12 21:19:12 UTC  |  Edited by: VaMei
1. Removal of the POS fuel isk sink.
While POCOs do void the isk sink since the tax goes to the corp, all of those IB and Concord COs are sinking isk. I've no idea how much tax hi-sec production is soaking us for, but my single planet robotics operation (i.e. no tax on p0-p2) in low-sec were charging ~7,000 isk on export. That's on par with NPC sourced robotics.

2. Lack of new players to expand the economic base.
[citation needed]

3. Increasing number of SPs allowing people to kill large rats faster.
Granted. Thanks to character sales, old toons never die... they just change hands. Add in the effects of rigs, open access to implants & faction gear (LP store change) and fully develpoed T2 production (you've gotta be old school to remember Meta4 on T1 BSes as hi-end mission running)

4. Decreasing ability to arbitage items between regions due to suicide ganking.
Red Frog. Problem solved. Seriously though, I run my loaded freighter from Dodixie to Jita multiple times per week w/o issue. I've pushed as much as 3Bisk in a single load, and passed without a scratch.

5. Massive cost increases in the raw resource basket due to:
a. suicide ganking of miners
[citation needed] Hulkageddon-I had some impact on mineral prices, but was likely speculative rather than a real disruption. Other Hulkageddon events have had little or no market impact.

b. banning of mining bots
\0/ Down with slave labor!! Seriously, the effect of mining bots is to artificially push down the cost of materials. If CCP can get/keep bots under control, I wouldn't be surprised to see mining of high ends climb back to 100Misk/Hr, like it used to be.

c. increased costs in moving reprocessed minerals from mission hubs (due to suicide ganking).
See 4 above. 5.75Misk to move a billion isk from Dodixie to Jita is not a significant cost.

6. We are transitioning from T2 being at the top of the commonly used mod pile to faction being at the top of the pile.
If true, the prefered modules are more effective than the T2 modules they replace. That's a productivity increase via upgrades, not inflation, and the effect is negative price pressure on the modules they replace.
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#13 - 2012-03-12 21:41:47 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
Terminal Insanity wrote:
Blowing ships up directly removes isk from circulation. You're literally blowing it up.

Your entire point is void (Due To Suicide Ganking)


Blowing up ships removes 0 ISK from the economy the ISK was already paid for & leaks back to the industialist that made it! The ISK is still circulating. The insurance paid actually adds ISK into the ecomony
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Terminal Insanity
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#14 - 2012-03-12 21:47:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Terminal Insanity
Jas Dor wrote:
Terminal Insanity wrote:
Blowing ships up directly removes isk from circulation. You're literally blowing it up.

Your entire point is void (Due To Suicide Ganking)


No blowing up a ship creates isk from the insurance payout. The industrialist who built the ship still has the isk that was paid for it. On the other hand the price of goods will increase as somebody needs to be paid for the increased gank risk in moving goods (assuming you popped a hauler).

On the effect of incursions on the economy, you realize that isk will come in somehow. If 20% of the PvE time in the game is being spent in incursions, then the fact that 20% of the PvE income comes from incursions is not a big deal (BTW your numbers are wrong, I believe that bounties number is only the bounties from missions not from ratting/plexing).

From what CCP is saying they want to tweak incursions a bit, but the PvE time invested to total payout is not badly out of whack (at least when LFG and transist times are taken into account).

Incursions are a bright shiny object that people have latched onto. CCP has flat out said that incursionsare not a major factor in the inflation problem..



So why is insurance fraud no longer happening? If ganking CREATED isk, people would be ganking themselves to create it. (Like they did before the insurance fraud fix)

When you blow up a hauler, he only gets a portion of the isk back from the ship, and about half of his cargo is destroyed.
The end result is A LOT OF ISK GETS REMOVED FROM THE GAME, some of it is transfered to a new owner, and a little goes to the owner of the dead ship.

Perfect example would be that Ibis that was ganked in Jita carrying a couple hundred PLEX.

Incursions are not a MAJOR source of inflation, no. But it IS adding to it. The fact is Incursions are the best PvE isk source in the game. It should never have been that way. It should never have made people more then lvl4's in highsec.

Incursions are just one part of a big problem. I think the major problem is the increased number of carebears in the game all farming isk, never leaving highsec, never risking it in PvP.

The huge increase in the past year, in whine threads about Cloakers, Gankers etc, are evidence the carebear population is growing. These people suckle on the isk faucets. Even after they're 5 years old they're still latching onto that nipple, and they absolutely refuse to leave their highsec house. All these carebears are amassing more and more isk and they're doing nothing with it.

"War declarations are never officially considered griefing and are not a bannable offense, and it has been repeatedly stated by the developers that the possibility for non-consensual PvP is an intended feature." - CCP

Terminal Insanity
KarmaFleet
Goonswarm Federation
#15 - 2012-03-12 21:54:08 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
Terminal Insanity wrote:
Blowing ships up directly removes isk from circulation. You're literally blowing it up.

Your entire point is void (Due To Suicide Ganking)


Blowing up ships removes 0 ISK from the economy the ISK was already paid for & leaks back to the industialist that made it! The ISK is still circulating. The insurance paid actually adds ISK into the ecomony

This assumes 100% of his cargo survives. It doesn't.

"War declarations are never officially considered griefing and are not a bannable offense, and it has been repeatedly stated by the developers that the possibility for non-consensual PvP is an intended feature." - CCP

TheBreadMuncher
Protus Correction Facility Inc.
#16 - 2012-03-12 21:55:50 UTC
Y U PEOPLE IGNORE TECH MOONS

"We will create the introduction thread if that is requested by the community. Also, we will have an ISD Seminar about the CCL team in the coming weeks in which you can ask your questions about the CCL team and provide some constructive feedback to us." - Countless pages of locked threads and numerous permabanned accounts later, change is coming.

Karn Dulake
Doomheim
#17 - 2012-03-12 21:56:23 UTC
Jas Dor wrote:
Small things do not drive overall inflation. Incursions are a bright sparkly object that every idiot in the galaxy is pointing to as the cause of inflation. This even though CCPs released numbers show incursions as a minor issue, and CCP has called incursions a minor issue, people continuing to harp on it. This is distracting from more important discussions. Put bluntly, incursion runners are a bunch of noobs using faction gear to make up for low SPs. Simply put, people feel like they're making good isk per hour running incursions because they have no idea how much their shiny ships could generated in level 4s, and are loosing track of how much time they are spending because they're enjoying being in fleets.

The structural reasons for eve inflation seem to be:

1. Removal of the POS fuel isk sink.
2. Lack of new players to expand the economic base.
3. Increasing number of SPs allowing people to kill large rats faster.
4. Decreasing ability to arbitage items between regions due to suicide ganking.
5. Massive cost increases in the raw resource basket due to a. suicide ganking of miners, b. banning of mining bots and c. increased costs in moving reprocessed minerals from mission hubs (due to suicide ganking).
6. We are transitioning from T2 being at the top of the commonly used mod pile to faction being at the top of the pile.

Of these factors I think the most important ones are 1. The removal of the POS fuel isk sink and 2. the increasing difficulty with arbitage. Quadruple the EHP of barges and freighters and you'll drop the inflation rate.


Im not sure that everything you have posted is correct but im sure that some is. High end mission runners make more isk thats for sure. but low end do not and they are dragged up in isk earned by more skilled players.

Just my thoughts.
I dont normally troll, but when i do i do it on General Discussion.
VaMei
Meafi Corp
#18 - 2012-03-12 21:59:22 UTC  |  Edited by: VaMei
Terminal Insanity wrote:
So why is insurance fraud no longer happening? If ganking CREATED isk, people would be ganking themselves to create it. (Like they did before the insurance fraud fix)


Buying ships removes isk from your wallet and puts it in mine.
Blowing up ships removes the ship from your inventory, and insurance puts isk in your wallet; but less than the cost to buy a new ship. I still have the isk used to buy the ship you lost, and you have newly created isk from the insurance payout.

If you expect to collect more isk from any loot you can gather than the difference between the insurance payout and the original ship cost, then suicide ganking is profitable.

Under the old insurance model, the insurance payout was often higher than the market price of a ship, making insurance fraud profitable without bothering with a gank.
Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#19 - 2012-03-12 21:59:23 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
Terminal Insanity wrote:
Blowing ships up directly removes isk from circulation. You're literally blowing it up.

Your entire point is void (Due To Suicide Ganking)


Blowing up ships removes 0 ISK from the economy the ISK was already paid for & leaks back to the industialist that made it! The ISK is still circulating. The insurance paid actually adds ISK into the ecomony


This goes much broader. PvP in general does not remove ISK. If anything it adds ISK.

Sov 5 with infrastructure gets lost in a war and new Sov Holder sits in Tier 1 sov for the duration. Sov bills drop by astronomical rates. De-throning empires saves them a fortune in concord bills.
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#20 - 2012-03-12 22:05:23 UTC
TheBreadMuncher wrote:
Y U PEOPLE IGNORE TECH MOONS


Becuase they are over owhelmingly NULL SECers using Incursions as a scape goat
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
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