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A Mathematical Analysis of CSM Candidates Positions - What The Spreadsheets Say
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Skye Aurorae
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#1 - 2012-03-07 16:37:01 UTC
I'm sure you know about the CSM election in progress, and I'm sure you realise there are many candidates advertising their own achievements and opinions, sorting through all this can be complicated

Dierdra Vaal put together this candidate selection site, the candidates were asked a series of questions indicating their positions on many hot topics, it's worth taking a look at this here
http://match.eve-csm.com
There are however many legitimate concerns about the quality of the questions, for example it was possible for candidates to indicate strong agreement on points that contradicted each other. I decided to do some mathematical analysis of candidate positions by collecting all their answers and looking for patterns, the bad questions in this case will become noise and the good ones become signal. Yes this is eve after all, and spreadsheets are one of the things we do well in this universe

Question with the largest disagreement
"Medical clone costs should be greatly reduced.

Question with the most agreement
"Mining should be the primary source of raw minerals in Eve.

We can take all the opinions and define an average opinion for all the questions and then measure how close a candidate is to this, or, how far. The distance in each opinion axes is scaled by the standard deviation so that questions showing strong agreement among candidates are weighted higher for distance calculations

Here are the scores for all candidates - starting with most centrist candidates at the top and the crazies at the bottom


  1. 25.14 Mu'ad Diib
  2. 25.96 Skye Aurorae
  3. 31.13 Blake Armitage
  4. 32.86 Lyris Nairn
  5. 36.06 Korvin
  6. 40.60 Voloses
  7. 42.89 Akirei Scytale
  8. 45.46 Vincent Athena
  9. 46.50 Mike Asariah
  10. 47.28 Issler Dainze
  11. 47.93 Sollana
  12. 49.98 Mintrollo
  13. 50.23 Greene Lee
  14. 50.43 StarConquer212
  15. 51.85 Meissa Anuthiel
  16. 52.30 Keldumm Revaan
  17. 53.21 Blackberry Bold
  18. 54.34 T'Amber
  19. 58.62 Alekseyev Karrde
  20. 58.93 Prometheus Exenthall
  21. 61.01 Dovinian
  22. 61.03 Two Step
  23. 61.82 Seleene
  24. 63.54 Fon Revedhort
  25. 64.39 Trebor Daehdoow
  26. 66.06 Roc Wieler
  27. 66.79 Elise Randolph
  28. 70.19 Leboe
  29. 71.63 Hans Jagerblitzen
  30. 74.23 Darius III
  31. 81.16 The Mittani
  32. 86.79 Skippermonkey
  33. 88.54 UaxDeath
  34. 103.09 Xenuria
  35. 107.22 corebloodbrothers
  36. 139.78 Psychobitch
  37. 141.04 Michael BoltonIII


It's easy to see spoiler candidates like Psychobitch and Michael BoltonIII score the worst, picking intentionally crazy positions, it's more telling to see Xenuria down there, since as far as I can tell this person is sincere. Also, amusingly mintrollo for all his bad grammar is actually quite sane in the positions taken. This is also missing candidates who refused, or were unable to take part, perhaps Riverini thought that he was too important to participate in vote match, or maybe it simply couldn't understand what he was saying.

If you want a candidate that represents the whole of Eve and not just the nullsec block vote vision for their game then you want someone who from the top of the list, obviously I'd like you to pick me, but the math puts me second on this purely logic driven criteria. So, I'll have to appeal on my other qualities to get that extra step up and receive your vote.

Skye Aurora is a 7 year old Girl Who Wants to be on the CSM! Unfortunately, the Lawyers say you have to be 21 - oh well.
Nova Fox
Novafox Shipyards
#2 - 2012-03-07 16:42:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Nova Fox
interesting. Can we use this in reverse to find candidtates that best fit our shoes?

I finished the survey and the spread sheet is all over the place makes it difficult to see it all.

Also can we get a 'summary' score row?

Dust 514's CPM 1 Iron Wolf Saber Eve mail me about Dust 514 issues.
TheBreadMuncher
Protus Correction Facility Inc.
#3 - 2012-03-07 16:48:13 UTC
The day Lyris Nairn gets into power is the day I kill myself.

Sky Captain of my heart, but not trustworthy for CSM.

"We will create the introduction thread if that is requested by the community. Also, we will have an ISD Seminar about the CCL team in the coming weeks in which you can ask your questions about the CCL team and provide some constructive feedback to us." - Countless pages of locked threads and numerous permabanned accounts later, change is coming.
Tanya Powers
Doomheim
#4 - 2012-03-07 16:48:39 UTC
Xenuria... omg lol guys, hem "You are not prepared" Lol
Nova Fox
Novafox Shipyards
#5 - 2012-03-07 16:57:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Nova Fox
Wow seems I voted for the right person yesterday before this handy tool came along.

Seelen was the highest match on the graph.

I would rather use the word Polarized instead of crazies.

Dust 514's CPM 1 Iron Wolf Saber Eve mail me about Dust 514 issues.
War Kitten
Panda McLegion
#6 - 2012-03-07 17:03:25 UTC
So in other words, people at the top of the list are the most indistinguishable from any other candidate based upon their answers to the vote match.

Neat?

I don't judge people by their race, religion, color, size, age, gender, or ethnicity. I judge them by their grammar, spelling, syntax, punctuation, clarity of expression, and logical consistency.
Karn Dulake
Doomheim
#7 - 2012-03-07 17:07:14 UTC
This is all horseshit.

Why dont you use your time properly and post more youtube vids.

This time of your little girl podding nullsecer under your direction
I dont normally troll, but when i do i do it on General Discussion.
Ajita al Tchar
Doomheim
#8 - 2012-03-07 17:42:04 UTC
While I am certainly of the opinion that the questions could be worded better, and that the selection of questions could be improved, I think this is a neat tool. I just hope people don't use it as a crutch to decide who to vote for rather than reading what the candidates say, and thinking about it for themselves.

All of my answers were around 50-55% for all candidate matches. Lolz.

Buuut of course I already gave 4 votes to TwoStep, and I'm very happy with that decision.
Skye Aurorae
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#9 - 2012-03-07 17:42:47 UTC
Karn Dulake wrote:
This is all horseshit.

Why dont you use your time properly and post more youtube vids.

This time of your little girl podding nullsecer under your direction



Well Skye has been sick (and Orion broke is his arm) so spare time has been thin on the ground in my household. However, just think about the extra video potential that electing Skye to the CSM could bring!

Skye Aurora is a 7 year old Girl Who Wants to be on the CSM! Unfortunately, the Lawyers say you have to be 21 - oh well.
Skye Aurorae
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#10 - 2012-03-07 17:48:40 UTC
Ajita al Tchar wrote:
While I am certainly of the opinion that the questions could be worded better, and that the selection of questions could be improved, I think this is a neat tool. I just hope people don't use it as a crutch to decide who to vote for rather than reading what the candidates say, and thinking about it for themselves.

All of my answers were around 50-55% for all candidate matches. Lolz.

Buuut of course I already gave 4 votes to TwoStep, and I'm very happy with that decision.



Yes it's incredibly important to read candidate comments, for example, the question regarding Removing local chat as an intel tool - in my ideal Eve we would have a new dedicated Intel window which would be sorted to show hostile pilots in local at the top of the list. This tool however would only give information on local if your standings were sufficiently high with the local authorities, e.g. in FW zones you would not have local intel if your faction did not have occupancy over a system. In 0.0 local pilot tracking would come from structures that alliances would have to deploy, structures which could be disabled to hide the movements of a hostile gang. I wouldn't be in favor of simply removing local chat. So answering this question led to a long explanation of my position.

Skye Aurora is a 7 year old Girl Who Wants to be on the CSM! Unfortunately, the Lawyers say you have to be 21 - oh well.
Feligast
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2012-03-07 18:20:49 UTC
Nova Fox wrote:
I would rather use the word Polarized instead of crazies.


But then his purely biased opinion would be watered down, and we can't have that in this time of election srs bsns.
Hecatonis
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#12 - 2012-03-07 18:28:42 UTC
i had already voted. but it did choose the same person i voted for.

good job i say
Serene Repose
#13 - 2012-03-07 20:05:47 UTC
Thanks so much. I peeled off the top 20. Hell. If puppies can pick a president, and lobster call the Superbowl, I'm running with this. At least it has a modicum of intelligence...more than I can say for Mitt's little club...Club Sub Mitt 6

We must accommodate the idiocracy.
Eidric
Private Shelter for Mad People
#14 - 2012-03-13 19:38:21 UTC
Match site is not even a best tool to gauge candidates. Especially since questions aren't very solid.

It is a nice tool to check general stance of candidates but using it to determine who gets a vote is foolish.

It is also extremely foolish to use it for any statistical analysis, especially since deviation of any given candidacy does not necessary correlate with his ability as CSM member. In fact i would be more inclined to vote for specialized member of the committee who is capable to offset the other CSM members on the fields they aren't familiar with. Instead of choosing all members that voice same opinion - in this case their strength comes with diversity.

Then again this table does not help me with that either
stoicfaux
#15 - 2012-03-13 19:51:16 UTC  |  Edited by: stoicfaux
Skye Aurorae wrote:
I decided to do some mathematical analysis of candidate positions by collecting all their answers and looking for patterns, the bad questions in this case will become noise and the good ones become signal.
...
I'd like you to pick me, but the math puts me second on this purely logic driven criteria. So, I'll have to appeal on my other qualities to get that extra step up and receive your vote.

Your numbers tell us you're the one to vote for? If you don't get into the CSM, have you considered starting your own religion?


edit: However, to be fair, if your spreadsheet was on fire and was feed through a text-to-speech app, I would be inclined to believe your numbers were Truth.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.
Rath Kelbore
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#16 - 2012-03-13 20:46:46 UTC
Thanks for the link to the site, didn't know about it. It has shown me that almost everything I need to know about the candidates is in the first three statements.

The industry side of Eve needs more game design attention and should be a priority over all other areas of the game that need improvements.

Improving low sec is the single most important thing for CCP to do and should be a priority over all other areas of the game that need improvements.

0.0 is most in need of further development, and should be a priority over all other areas of the game that need improvements.

It's impossible to put a positive response in more than one of those and many of the candidates did. Unfortunately the ones that didn't contradict themselves right off the bat disagree with my positions in too many other areas. So once again I will probably abstain.

Not that anyone cares about my position on anything haha. Thanks again for the link to the site however, was interesting.

I plan on living forever.......so far, so good.
Muul Udonii
THORN Syndicate
Northern Coalition.
#17 - 2012-03-16 00:39:14 UTC
While useful to see what candidates put, it's useless to try to do any analysis with it.

Interesting that the people I'm voting for were actualy pretty low matches, but when you look at what they actually put, the fact that I put 'Yes' while they put 'Yes, Yes' goes against them.
Zesoft
Doomheim
#18 - 2012-03-16 01:04:27 UTC
EVE - There's nothing we can't spreadsheet™
The Mittani
State War Academy
Caldari State
#19 - 2012-03-16 01:28:16 UTC
Rational choice theory isn't predictive of much at all, which is why vote match is not only useless, but those who take it seriously become a punchline.

Heh.

~hi~