Market Discussions

You've still got a few of the same concerns as followed you on the first bond attempt to be honest.

In your first bond your existing investors were asked to verify their involvement, and by the nature of how these things work they tended to look a little like alts.

Now one of those "existing investors" was Lord Adante. It's just that your new corp, founded by yourself 7 days ago with two members - the other member is Lord Adante and he joined a mere 120 seconds after you - that again looks like rather suspect alt behaviour. Now it may not be, but on the basis of limited information, that's a natural conclusion people will fall to.

I have been contacted by Jake about getting an audit done.

What I can do is to prove he's a trader and has some kind of performance (as long as his history lets me get enough data) and see if Lord Adante is an obvious alt or not.

As for discriminating him from Lord Adante there's no completely safe way. Those who wish to contact them via VOIP feel free to. It won't be considered a proof for my audit.

If this is enough, ok. Else I am open to suggestions.

Else an audit will be produced by Tuesday afternoon.

Edit: actually I devised a little nasty test to see if they are more related than they should, I still won't "green flag" it but will see if I can it done.

Well that is a little ray of light and whilst, as you allude to, proof is never going to be 100% (in a world where pretty decent voice modulation is widely available for nought, even VOIP can be bypassed) it's a good start. Hell, it proves they're not on the same account at any rate.

Being open to and arranging an audit is a promising step; although one which should, as I'm sure VV will re-iterate, never be taken as scam-proofing an offering - it's a promising step nonetheless. So for now I shall simply wish you luck and watch with interest.

Thank you Tekota for being reasonably skeptical but willing to take interest in the bond. Anything I can do to prove I am who I say I am helps put investors just a bit more at ease.

After Austa Ryer's investment reservation, I still have 1.7 billion left open on the bond. Investors may reserve spots pending the results of Vaerah's audit, which will hopefully be published on Tuesday.

I would like to invest the remainder of the requested ISK which is 1.7b (or I could invest the total requested sum of 2b).
Please send me an evemail when the ISK has to be transferred.

- Aishwarya Rai -

ISK received from Austa Ryer. Other investors may choose to wait for audit before sending investment.

ISK received from Aishwarya Rai.

Audit report for Jake Andarius business proposal

This is Vaerah Vahrokha’s analysis as of 2012-03-06 08:00 EvE Time.
NEISIN code: GFATCOPBO019.
Official discussion: link to investment prospectus.
Public Audits Record (PAR) for this investment: backlink.


Tools used

jEveAssets
EvE Income Analyzer Crucible Edition
EvE Mentat
Microsoft® Excel™
Blender 3D => LuxRender
Paint.NET => Bolt Bait Pack, DPY Plugins, MadJik Pack, Vandermotten Effects


Forewords about the Audit

Jake Andarius is an high sec trader and mission runner.
In order to expand on his current activity he is starting an uncollateralized, public bond.
This audit will cover the trading activities past performance.


Generalities

Main character for this proposal is Jake Andarius, playing one account along with another associated player, a real life friend of him. He only plays one character (the Auditor made sure to check the other two were not just hidden by an EvE API setting). He trained several level IV and V skills for trading, contracting, hauling with industrials, L4 missioning.
Jake Andarius, is a February 2010 character with 9.2M SP.

Both his and his friend's and his friend's alt forum posting history are very short. They don't show evident ill-behaviors. There has not been found evidence of Jake Andarius first investment's thread posters being his alts. Killboard is minimal, only pertinent kill mail shows an early days loss of a 15M cargo industrial to an high sec suicide gank.

Statement of ability to deliver: the Investee has regular past and present market orders running.
Statement of past activity: the journal API records report a regular trading activity as far as the API allows to check for.


Player uniqueness test

It has been brought under the Investors attention how the Investee and his real life friend could actually be the same player trying to plead and push the bond.

The Auditor decided to perform a player uniqueness test. It is a quite effective check, even if does not claim to be a scientific trial in any way. There are ways to circumvent it, expecially if the test was used before or the test subject had time to prepare specific macros. Neither of these conditions were fulfilled in this case.

Jake Andarius and his friend were invited on two chats and given different instructions to do the following:

1) Press a button key to the upper left (USA keyboards) + ENTER
2) Press SHIFT + a button to the right + ENTER
3) Go to 1 till told to stop.

One player has been told to press "1 + ENTER + ] + ENTER" till told to stop, the other has been told to press "z + ENTER + ampersand + ENTER" till told to stop.
Later, they were instructed to repeat the same operation on the same chat.
Additionally, they were checked about having different, concurrent, un-synchronized typing speeds (harder to fake).
Finally, a quick syntax style review verified that they had a different use of capital letters, different placement of them (i.e. one players types them on the next chat line, the other does not capitalize) and different lexicon.

The results of these checks were all positive. The test execution is available for everyone to see in these videos:

Video 1
Video 2
Video 3


Involvement in other business

As of March 5, Jake Andarius has liabilities for 2,351,172,724.46 ISK due to private investors (friends).


Business Plan Analysis

The Investee disclosed his trading strategy both to the Auditor and to the public. It involves leveraging on small, high value orders to take value out of the buy / sell spreads.

The business plan is about raising funds to be able to increase this effect.
The Investee is already in the proposed market niche, he does not need logistics.
The Investee may resort to L4 mission running, in case the investment does not produce the expected performance.

Feasibility statement: the business plan looks viable, look at the market performance analysis for further details.


Collateral and exit strategy

The Investee won't post collateral for this bond.
No exit strategy has been planned.

Positives

The Investee has the character skills to confirm his claims.
The Investee net worth is vastly more than the requested capital, the Investee is comfortable dealing with the involved amounts.
The Investee accepted an audit, replied to questions, accepted to subject himself and his friend to the "player uniqueness" check.
Small bond amount and sufficient interest rate.


Negatives

No collateral nor exit strategy have been provided.
Little posting history makes it hard to understand the personality of the Investee.
This bond could be seen as an attempt to "rep grind". The former bond failed to take off, this one could be a "try again with a smaller amount".
Trading is inherently a risky profession, investing hard on few items makes it riskier. There are past examples of this kind of trading working very well though.


Conclusions

Due to the lack of collateral and exit strategy and due to the risky kind of profession and the particular trading strategy involved, the Auditor classifies this investment as very high risk.

Please notice how "very high risk" does not mean "unsafe". It's two different concepts. Talking about high risk of bad performance (the Investee could just run missions to fix that), risk of real life complications etc. is one thing, the ever present chance of scam is another. The latter cannot be prevented by an audit, which only acts as first line deterrent.

The Investee seems competent (skills wise and player wise) enough to deliver on his statements and has past positive records. His business is in a growth phase, his API records show he may operated as he stated.

Basically, the Investee looks like having the ability to successfully honor the bond. Notice how an audit may only evaluate the ability or potential of an Investee to succesfully honor a bond / IPO.
The Auditor suggests perspective Investors NOT to invest their full capital on this venture but to offer what they could eventually afford to lose.


Disclaimers

Due to stringent EvE API limitations, although the information provided to you on this document is obtained or compiled from sources believed to be reliable, Vahrokh Consulting cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness, or completeness of any information or data made available to you for any particular purpose.
This Auditor is actively and passionately against any breach of privacy, in particular regarding in game mail API access. Therefore no information will ever be gathered and no audit will ever be released that will contain any element found by eavesdropping someone else's private communications.
Neither the information nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by Vahrokh Consulting or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, assets or services.

Sure. The test has some premises, in a descending hierarchy:

- the tested persons in reality could be just one
- the tested person will spoof / fake VoIP tests or will just call an accomplice.
- the tested person might have technical knowledge enough to setup macros to act as two people.
- different persons tend to type with a different style (capitalization, abbreviations, syntax...)


The test did this:

- avoided VoIP
- required two clients being running somewhere, with a need to keep pressing difficult to reach keys on both at the same time.
- the keys were chosen to be far away enough and hard to reach enough and with SHIFT so that one guy could not easily use one hand on a keyboard and another on another keyboard.
- the test had few seconds of preadvice, so that creating suitable macros would be hard. The requirement for SHIFT adds on that complexity.
- the test shown different typing speeds (very hard to simulate with readily available macro software, expecially with few seconds of preadvice).
- the very (apparently) random chatter I involved the players into, was also aimed at checking for their personal typing style (notice the also).