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WC4 overseer triggers
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Caldwell Whitlock
42nd Line Marine Regiment
#1 - 2012-02-04 17:54:22 UTC
Hi,
I had bad luck with trying to trigger overseer in the old usual way. I think I saw some devblog in past where they wrote mechanism for this would be changed. Was it changed (and how does it work now) or did I just not tried enough times or what... I tried about 20x both serpentis and guristas side, but nothing spawned...
Caleidascope
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#2 - 2012-02-04 21:48:16 UTC
In the past couple of months I had a couple WC4 where I got no overseers.

My advice, don't try to trigger overseer spawn, just do the mission. Either farm it or finish it and do another mission.

Life is short and dinner time is chancy

Eat dessert first!
Caterpil
Amanina Avada Corporation
#3 - 2012-02-04 23:50:44 UTC
A few months back I started a project to test the frequency of the faction overseer spawns in WC (angel/sansha).

Basicaly I would clear out the mission, salvage it and then repeatedly activate the gate both with my main and an alt to try and force the spawns. Although some attempts exceeded 50 warp-ins an overseer spawned every time. While I didn't record the exact number of tries it took it seems to me that the 'attacking' faction has around 1/5 - 1/10 chance to spawn an overseer each warp in while the 'defending faction' has around 1/10 - 1/20 chance per warp in (maybe even lower).

Oh- and the results weren't too encouraging...

Out of 38 overseer spawns (both sides)-

- 12 were pseudo faction (Gist domination and True Centus) with larger bounties than their standard counterparts but no chance of faction drops.
- 2 were true faction spawns (didn't drop anything but tags and ammo Evil)

So basically it isn't really worth farming the mission for overseer spawns, the chance of anything good spawning is low and they could take hours to get in the first place- After this I've just treated the occasional faction overseer spawn as as a rare treat but don't actively pursue them any more.

Cat
Caldwell Whitlock
42nd Line Marine Regiment
#4 - 2012-02-05 00:50:40 UTC
Thanks for replies, however what I'm really interested is if triggering has changed recently (crucible), rather then assessment how frequent it was some months back. I used to trigger it all the time, reason being hi-sec exploration is little bit too competitive and unless you have strategic cruiser or something similar it's hard to run it fast enough not to get some noob jumping in last second killing the overseers before you can...
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#5 - 2012-02-06 07:10:57 UTC
Caldwell Whitlock wrote:
Thanks for replies, however what I'm really interested is if triggering has changed recently (crucible), rather then assessment how frequent it was some months back. I used to trigger it all the time, reason being hi-sec exploration is little bit too competitive and unless you have strategic cruiser or something similar it's hard to run it fast enough not to get some noob jumping in last second killing the overseers before you can...


Sounds like it's time to do your own research then.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Caldwell Whitlock
42nd Line Marine Regiment
#6 - 2012-02-08 00:48:44 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:
Caldwell Whitlock wrote:
Thanks for replies, however what I'm really interested is if triggering has changed recently (crucible), rather then assessment how frequent it was some months back. I used to trigger it all the time, reason being hi-sec exploration is little bit too competitive and unless you have strategic cruiser or something similar it's hard to run it fast enough not to get some noob jumping in last second killing the overseers before you can...


Sounds like it's time to do your own research then.

Uhm... well... you see, that's kinda why I made _this_thread_ - as part of my own research - after empiric evidence (trying to trigger the friggin overseer) seemed to behave differently than before (it used to be quite easy to trigger Serpentis one).
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#7 - 2012-02-08 01:06:23 UTC
Caldwell Whitlock wrote:
RubyPorto wrote:
Caldwell Whitlock wrote:
Thanks for replies, however what I'm really interested is if triggering has changed recently (crucible), rather then assessment how frequent it was some months back. I used to trigger it all the time, reason being hi-sec exploration is little bit too competitive and unless you have strategic cruiser or something similar it's hard to run it fast enough not to get some noob jumping in last second killing the overseers before you can...


Sounds like it's time to do your own research then.

Uhm... well... you see, that's kinda why I made _this_thread_ - as part of my own research - after empiric evidence (trying to trigger the friggin overseer) seemed to behave differently than before (it used to be quite easy to trigger Serpentis one).


So you have detailed methodologies and statistical analysis of the pre and post patch behavior? (HINT: That's the definition of Empiric Evidence)

Or do you have anecdote suggesting that the RNG that deals with the spawn may indeed be random?

Do it a few hundred more times, detail your report, and then you won't be asking other people to do your research for you, you will be discussing your findings with the class.

My bet is that you are suffering from a hindsight bias. You remember the times you triggered it more clearly than you remember the times you didn't, thus your mind (everyone's mind operates this way, mind you) figures that that must have happened really often.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Caldwell Whitlock
42nd Line Marine Regiment
#8 - 2012-02-08 02:02:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Caldwell Whitlock
RubyPorto wrote:

So you have detailed methodologies and statistical analysis of the pre and post patch behavior? (HINT: That's the definition of Empiric Evidence)

Or do you have anecdote suggesting that the RNG that deals with the spawn may indeed be random?

Do it a few hundred more times, detail your report, and then you won't be asking other people to do your research for you, you will be discussing your findings with the class.

My bet is that you are suffering from a hindsight bias. You remember the times you triggered it more clearly than you remember the times you didn't, thus your mind (everyone's mind operates this way, mind you) figures that that must have happened really often.

Pre-patch analysis were done by other people. My pre-patch experience was fully consistent with the finding.
My post-patch data are from single day run where I tried about 20 times each pocket. Serpentis used to spawn quite nicely, yet this time it did not, and I had no more time to check after.
Doing few more hundred time would be a great waste of time if _single_ person would confirm that either it still spawns (within last three-four weeks) as it used to or would have information that it's otherwise (like the devblog I think I have seen but not sure and could not find when searching).
As for empiric evidence:
"The term empirical was originally used to refer to certain ancient Greek practitioners of medicine who rejected adherence to the dogmatic doctrines of the day, preferring instead to rely on the observation of phenomena as perceived in experience."
You may point to used to, I may admit to be little backwardish, or may just have different threshold for set of data base for my experiment. But it's not incorrect usage.
BTW, just run the site some ten more times. Not spawning. Yes, ten attempts is not much but no more time.
I wonder if overseer can spawn in incursion system though (it was not incursion system when I first run it, it became after downtime).
Zhilia Mann
Tide Way Out Productions
#9 - 2012-02-08 06:09:52 UTC
I don't know. I've never really tried to spawn overseers. But no one else has noted it that I'm aware of.

Caldwell Whitlock wrote:

I wonder if overseer can spawn in incursion system though (it was not incursion system when I first run it, it became after downtime).


Now this... Is the human mind desperately seeking patterns. There probably isn't one.
Caldwell Whitlock
42nd Line Marine Regiment
#10 - 2012-02-08 11:41:28 UTC
Zhilia Mann wrote:
I don't know. I've never really tried to spawn overseers. But no one else has noted it that I'm aware of.

Caldwell Whitlock wrote:

I wonder if overseer can spawn in incursion system though (it was not incursion system when I first run it, it became after downtime).


Now this... Is the human mind desperately seeking patterns. There probably isn't one.

I dunno... maybe forum is too unattended... otherwise I would expect someone would be able to tell "yea I spawned those yesterday".
On the other hand, incursion does override local rats... So it would not be completely ridiculous if it would mess with faction rats in missions, too.
Deus Fury
Absolute Order
Absolute Honor
#11 - 2012-02-23 16:57:48 UTC
Caldwell Whitlock wrote:
Hi,
I had bad luck with trying to trigger overseer in the old usual way. I think I saw some devblog in past where they wrote mechanism for this would be changed. Was it changed (and how does it work now) or did I just not tried enough times or what... I tried about 20x both serpentis and guristas side, but nothing spawned...



I spawned an overseer last week. It does appear to be chance based now (RNG). Prior to this last one spawning I had attempted to trigger the spawn manually by jumping through both gates. I got the same results as you - no overseer spawned. When the overseer spawned randomly the bounty was 4.5 mil, and upon salvaging the wreck I was surprised to see T2 salvage. Which brought the overseer total value to just over 10 mil isk.

With that said I have not seen another since and I have gotten the mission 2 times since the random spawn. So I guess at this point I would tend to believe that they did change the behavior of the spawn and that its purely based on RNG. However, this is purely my opinion.
Caldwell Whitlock
42nd Line Marine Regiment
#12 - 2012-02-27 22:16:00 UTC
So, trying some more. First time, serpentis got standard BS (~850K) overseer right away. Guristas has none, I had no time to try more.
Another day, no overseer at either side. Tried serpentis side about 30 times. This was in 0.5 system. No overseer spawn.
That may not be definite proof of course but there is only so much time I'm willing to spend on this.