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The Bellwether Mechanic - Predicting CCP's Future Direction

Author
Lyrrashae
Hellstar Towing and Recovery
#21 - 2012-02-04 22:56:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Lyrrashae
foxnod wrote:


Newly formed industrial corps get wardec'd out of existence because they don't deserve to exist. If they deserved to exist they would weather the storm just fine. Eve is darwinian by nature, so people either need to HTFU or get out.


This is putting a bit more harshly than I would, but...QFT, just the same.

E: Come on, dMC, I know you know better than this. Don't you?

Ni.

ACE McFACE
Dirt 'n' Glitter
Local Is Primary
#22 - 2012-02-04 23:02:56 UTC
Not even going to try to copy paste half the article into the post?

Now, more than ever, we need a dislike button.

Eternum Praetorian
Doomheim
#23 - 2012-02-04 23:28:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Eternum Praetorian
Poetic Stanziel wrote:
Eternum Praetorian wrote:
Well sweety, that is because a small 1 man freighter corp is obviously an alt hauling corp. Not to mention too small to bother with.
Except that I hauled a lot over the course of that time, so my alt was more or less my main for that time period.

What is that magic number when people decide something is worth griefing? Numbers alone? Not the potential for catching a freighter full of cargo unaware?



Doesn't matter. A one man corporation does not offer enough activity to be worth while. One man will be logged on or off at any given time, be docked, be inactive or scared... and thus, it = the end of the wardec'ers potential for fun. The magic number starts at about 20-30 IMHO.


20-30 offers at least 5-8 online at any given time. For your average griefing-killboard-padding corporation, you can then multiply that number x3 and get 15-24 online throughout the week (that is the limit of open wardecs per week for a corporation). The cost is only a laughable 6m ISK per week. The members of their targeted corporations will often be out and about "doing their own thing", and that is the point. Poor organization and lack of communication is commonplace in small corporations that are just figuring out how to exist in this game. That very nature offers wardecers/griefers the targets that they are looking for. You go on the hunt and you prey upon people who are not all collected in one place. They are mining, running missions, going to Jita or just not paying attention. They are also divided in between 3 distinct corporations that have no affiliation with one another.

Since a corporation only gets 3 wardecs at any given time, and an alliance wardec costs 50M isk increments per wardec, it is in their best interest to choose corporations that fit a certain criteria. A one man corp belonging to a freighter pilot is an obvious alt, and does not fit this criteria.


Poetic Stanziel wrote:


....part of his own one-person corporation....

He never got a sniff of a wardec. This whole "people grief small industrial corps" argument is complete fallacy.


So again, presenting this as evidence of the fallacy you speak of is not only a hefty piece of faulty logic, is also evidently an sadly uninformed opinion. Toodles.

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Camios
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#24 - 2012-02-04 23:41:29 UTC
If they make highsec safer they MUST make it less lucrative.

There are some enterprising people out there that don't move from highsec just because, risk wise, they can make more money there.

This must end.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#25 - 2012-02-04 23:47:54 UTC
The Apostle wrote:
No what I am saying is making it "safer" won't make any real, discernible difference to "Eve the concept" but it will make it more accessible as "Eve the game"...

If it won't make any real, discernible difference, then it won't make the game any more accessible.
Then again, the safety of space is not a factor in accessibility to begin with. Accessibility comes from understanding and intuition — teaching people the wrong lessons, setting up the wrong expectations, or hiding the actual game from them is pretty much the exact wrong way to go.

If anything, the game should be made a bit more dangerous so people have more reason to learn the mechanics involved and to adopt a safer behaviour. That way, they wouldn't be quite so scared witless over the slightest thing, nor would be they be as shocked and surprised when stuff happened and would understand why they happen rather than assume that there are some exploits or general rule-breaking at play.


As for “EVE the concept”, it pretty much requires an easy way to affect other people negatively…
DeMichael Crimson
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#26 - 2012-02-04 23:56:24 UTC
Lyrrashae wrote:
foxnod wrote:


Newly formed industrial corps get wardec'd out of existence because they don't deserve to exist. If they deserved to exist they would weather the storm just fine. Eve is darwinian by nature, so people either need to HTFU or get out.


This is putting a bit more harshly than I would, but...QFT, just the same.

E: Come on, dMC, I know you know better than this. Don't you?


QFT huh?

Going by that way of thinking, then someone like me who isn't in a player corp belonging to a large null sec alliance doesn't belong in Eve.

If you agree with that then obviously you don't know me or my contributions to this community and probably shouldn't refer to me as DMC.

That statement by foxnod demonstrates the type of mentality that will only drive more players from this game, plain and simple.

There is no reason for an established 20 man PvP corp to WarDec a newly formed 2 man Industrial corp based in high sec other than to disrupt gameplay and grief them out of the game for the lolz. Stating that Eve is Darwinian by nature is purely a fail excuse to justify that type of activity when it pertains to high sec.

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#27 - 2012-02-05 00:11:15 UTC
DeMichael Crimson wrote:
Going by that way of thinking, then someone like me who isn't in a player corp belonging to a large null sec alliance doesn't belong in Eve.
That depends — do you fold the instant someone wardecs you?

Quote:
That statement by foxnod demonstrates the type of mentality that will only drive more players from this game, plain and simple.
No. foxnod's comment demonstrates a specific point that needs to be taught to new players to make them understand their choices, viz. that a player corp is a pay-for luxury, not a right, and that before setting one up, players should carefully consider whether it'll be worth their investment.

Quote:
There is no reason for an established 20 man PvP corp to WarDec a newly formed 2 man Industrial corp based in high sec other than to disrupt gameplay their industrial efforts
…which, as it happens, is an entirely legitimate reason to do so due to how the economy of the game works. If they don't want to deal with the competition, they have the ability to choose not to, but doing so takes them out of the race by imposing higher taxes and slower/more crowded production chains. Changing that would be rather silly: it doesn't make much sense if they were able to compete without subjecting themselves to the competition, now does it?
Humidor Cigarillo
#28 - 2012-02-05 00:25:07 UTC
You make the bold claim that the wardec system is analogous to the proverbial canary in the coal mine, but you provide zero evidence to support this supposition. When in the past have wardec mechanics indicated a broader change in the game? That is something you should have spent some time trying to come up with. Instead, you continued on with ever-bolder conjecture insisting that this faux-lynch-pin might yet be pulled. To top it all off you seem to have mis-read the very quotes you selected as two of the three indicate not that CCP is softening the wardec system, but that they might be hardening it, creating even more wardec opportunities.

To put it politely, this is irrational fear-mongering. You should spend more time thinking and less time typing if you want people to take your blog seriously. That article read like something off EN24.
The Apostle
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#29 - 2012-02-05 00:30:05 UTC
Tippia wrote:
The Apostle wrote:
No what I am saying is making it "safer" won't make any real, discernible difference to "Eve the concept" but it will make it more accessible as "Eve the game"...

If it won't make any real, discernible difference, then it won't make the game any more accessible.
Then again, the safety of space is not a factor in accessibility to begin with. Accessibility comes from understanding and intuition — teaching people the wrong lessons, setting up the wrong expectations, or hiding the actual game from them is pretty much the exact wrong way to go.

If anything, the game should be made a bit more dangerous so people have more reason to learn the mechanics involved and to adopt a safer behaviour. That way, they wouldn't be quite so scared witless over the slightest thing, nor would be they be as shocked and surprised when stuff happened and would understand why they happen rather than assume that there are some exploits or general rule-breaking at play.

As for “EVE the concept”, it pretty much requires an easy way to affect other people negatively…

I'm emphasising that IF people are quitting because they did lose a spaceship then making SOME space safer MAY (emphasis very deliberate) help in retention. It's effect on game will be negligble to do so.

And from that, I'm also arguing that this belief that making highsec safer will destroy the game is utter nonsense.

As for "learning the hard way". What an absolute fallacy. You might be able to teach a baby to swim by throwing it into the deep-end but you give them more confidence and a sense of danger if you ease them in at the shallow end and let them discover the deep-end for themselves.

It's this fallacy around the "Eve must be deadly to succeed" ethos that drives me absoluetly nuts. It's stupid, inane and absolutely unneccessary.

For those that WANT to be zero-to-hero in 30 minutes they have a multitude of alternates. Why is this fact ALWAYS overlooked?

Nullsec democracy is an oxymoron. Bloc voting for alliance candidates is Democracy for Morons 101. Let them perish in their self-interest.

Bring back Eve. OUR Eve.

The Apostle
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#30 - 2012-02-05 00:45:02 UTC
Camios wrote:
If they make highsec safer they MUST make it less lucrative.

There are some enterprising people out there that don't move from highsec just because, risk wise, they can make more money there.

This must end.

It's this that makes me have a giggle. It boils down to you could too but won't due to some romantic notion of how a game should be played. Despite this, Highsec is by and large an industrial zone, not a warzone and to an indy style player, Nullsec has nothing to offer. They can't do anything better or make anymore money in Nullsec (with it's inherent risks) any better than Highsec. So why bother?

And Highsec is safe for anyone that wants it to be that way. No amount of wardecs/ganks etc. bother most of the people there. It's such a benign action that it's laughable.

Even with the "old" wardec system, simply logging or putting your gear away for a week is no big deal to people that actually have assets worth trying to break/steal etc. It's a shrug moment.

For real, most of the fighting I see ocurring in highsec is between rabid dogs fighting over 2 bones. Throw in a bit of ego, a pinch of testoserone and you have volia, consensual PvP. They want to fight and it's their call if they wish to.

This belief that Highsec must be a danger zone for Carebears or they should be capped is just plain silly.

Nullsec democracy is an oxymoron. Bloc voting for alliance candidates is Democracy for Morons 101. Let them perish in their self-interest.

Bring back Eve. OUR Eve.

Zirse
Risktech Analytics
#31 - 2012-02-05 00:45:09 UTC
Here's what I think:

1)Apostle is dumb.

2)Casual players don't know enough about how to survive in lowsec/nullsec and as a consequence of this they're scared or assured that they'll lose ships within minutes-- something that's probably not far from the truth. You can't really blame them either-- you really have to buy into EVE's game-exterior of forums, guides, and 3rd party tools to get the most out of your experience. While I don't think we need any additional handholding and I do think that stuff like the MWD+Cloak, dscanning, bouncing off planets, bouncing safes, tactical bookmarks and etc could be covered or at least mentioned in game.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#32 - 2012-02-05 00:47:27 UTC
The Apostle wrote:
I'm emphasising that IF people are quitting because they did lose a spaceship then making SOME space safer MAY (emphasis very deliberate) help in retention. It's effect on game will be negligble to do so.
If people are quitting because they lost space ships, then they would have quit sooner or later anyway because it's just not their game. Helping their retention without affecting the game would almost be dishonest because it's still not their game and you're just tricking them to squeeze more money out of them before they realise it.

Player retention appears to be the new “save the newbies” rallying cry, but what makes it a good argument for anything?

Wouldn't it be better to a) make them understand sooner what kind of game it is so they don't waste any money on it and come away thinking better of the game and everything associated with it, or b) to make them understand sooner what kind of game it is so they can enjoy the actual game rather than their flawed preconception of it?

Quote:
As for "learning the hard way". What an absolute fallacy.
Good thing nothing of the sort was said, then. Roll
What was said was that if people are made to understand that space is dangerous, then they can learn before “the hard way” happens. Learning the hard way is what we have now, and what people are trying to promote by adding more and more safety. This only makes people unprepared to deal with… anything, and makes them quit when their lack of preparation proves to be the exact wrong thing to do.

The more people think about their own safety because everything in the game tells them to, the safer they will be in practice.

Quote:
It's this fallacy around the "Eve must be deadly to succeed" ethos that drives me absoluetly nuts. It's stupid, inane and absolutely unneccessary.
Exaggerate much? EVE must be a place where nothing is safe for its economy to be healthy. Whether that makes it deadly or not is rather besides the point. What we can say with ease is that, unless lots and lots of destruction happens, and unless industry is rather simple to disrupt, the market that sits at the centre of the game will quickly become very unhealthy, and the game will suffer for it.

There's a reason why people don't just play on Sisi…
Lyrrashae
Hellstar Towing and Recovery
#33 - 2012-02-05 00:59:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Lyrrashae
DeMichael Crimson wrote:


QFT huh?

Going by that way of thinking, then someone like me who isn't in a player corp belonging to a large null sec alliance doesn't belong in Eve.


Wrong:

Stop drawing parallels where none exist, or if they do, then it's only in a very broad sense. NPC corp-soloist =/= a group of players in a corp. who have absolutely no knowledge of how corporations in EVE work, and that they are much more than the glorified social-club of guilds in most other MMOs.

Chief among these seems to be that they don't/refuse to understand that, once you form a corp., you are implicitly signing yourself up as being open to the ruthless PvP competition that informs this entire game.


And what do nullsec alliances have to do with this? Not that I need to justify myself to you, but rest assured, mate: I despise them and everything they really represent, just as much as you seem to, though I suspect my reasons are quite different from yours.

DeMichael Crimson wrote:
If you agree with that then obviously you don't know me or my contributions to this community and probably shouldn't refer to me as DMC.


Ooooooh, did I step on your poor, embattled, little sense of amoure propre? Don't worry, DMC, I'm sure you'll live.

DeMicael Crimson wrote:
That statement by foxnod demonstrates the type of mentality that will only drive more players from this game, plain and simple.


And yet, EVE's subscriber-base has overall only grown since it went public, with the quite-proper exception of the Incarna debacle. Fancy that, eh?

DeMichael Crimson wrote:
There is no reason for an established 20 man PvP corp to WarDec a newly formed 2 man Industrial corp based in high sec other than to disrupt gameplay and grief them out of the game for the lolz. Stating that Eve is Darwinian by nature is purely a fail excuse to justify that type of activity when it pertains to high sec.


Which is why this is relatively rare, unless that two-man corp is a known alt-corp for the "main" war-target. In which case, it is then a valid military target: Asset-denial is a fundamental concept of warfare, and those alts' players still have the option of dropping corp to NPC, where the only legal way to get them in hisec is suicide-ganking, or non-direct-combat forms of "economic PvP"

E:

Oh, and you should fly that ISK 1Bn mission-T3 with your d-scanner open, and set to short-range (ca. 600mn km/4AU), and then actually use it.

Then, when you see combat-probes, you turn the range down to 300mn km/2AU, and refresh as fast as it will let you. Once you see that group of Tempests/Tornados, that's your cue to align to something.

Set d-scanner to around 50mn km, and once the baddies show on scan, that's when you warp-out (You did kill those annoying little pointies/webbers in the mission-space first, didn't you?)...

If you want to be extra-cautious--not a bad idea, imho--then align and warp as soon as you see probes.

That "victimisation" you go on about could have easily been avoided if you'd been paying attention, and using the tools the game gives everyone equally to protect yourself.

Ni.

Crosi Wesdo
War and Order
#34 - 2012-02-05 01:03:43 UTC
If you guys are complaining that ganks are getting harder in high-sec, thats pretty sad. Theres a whole other 2/3rds of the game where you are welcome to gank as and when you like. You are welcome to come have a go.
Eternum Praetorian
Doomheim
#35 - 2012-02-05 01:09:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Eternum Praetorian
Lyrrashae wrote:

Chief among these seems to be that they don't/refuse to understand that, once you form a corp., you are implicitly signing yourself up as being open to the ruthless PvP competition that informs this entire game.


What are said PVP'ers competing for?

Lyrrashae wrote:
Asset-denial is a fundamental concept of warfare, and those alts' players still have the option of dropping corp to NPC, where the only legal way to get them in hisec is suicide-ganking, or non-direct-combat forms of "economic PvP"


What assets are they denying?


Oh and...

Quote:

And yet, EVE's subscriber-base has overall only grown since it went public, with the quite-proper exception of the Incarna debacle. Fancy that, eh?


This statement becomes more and more dubious, with the ever growing prevalence of multi-boxing accounts. If you have the information that proves how much of EVE is single account holder vs multi-boxers I would love to see said information.

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Hans Zwaardhandler
Resilience.
The Initiative.
#36 - 2012-02-05 01:11:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Hans Zwaardhandler
Poetic Stanziel wrote:
DeMichael Crimson wrote:
Newly formed small Industrial corps get WarDec'd out of existence very quickly due to outdated broken game mechanics which invariably leads to rage quits, thus reducing subscriptions which inevitable hurts CCP in the long run.

Complete BS. My alt hauled in highsec for a couple months, part of his own one-person corporation. He did a lot of hauling. Sixty to one hundred jumps per day, usually. Along all the major trade routes. In a freighter, loaded up with billions in cargo. He was hardly unnoticeable and certainly a target.

He never got a sniff of a wardec. This whole "people grief small industrial corps" argument is complete fallacy.

A former corp that I was in was mainly an industrial corp. I counted the days until we got our first wardec, which was after a few mining ops around highsec. Griefer corp, and our corp weathered the storm fine, but we later signed off as it was too much trouble to try and run an industrial corp in highsec, small or large. The little corp that we founded was shut down after only four months of operation, which is three months longer than most industrialist corps exist.

And fallacy regarding griefing of industrial corps? Don't sell me that. I've had several wardecs in the corps I have belonged to, and we were small industrial corps with not a whole lot of active members. That has changed now, but it could be rather difficult for industrialists and industrialist corps to exist because griefers love killing them. Plain and simple fact. They know that they can't go out and make money, they know that they aren't the best at combat, and they know that they can get easy killmails that way and pad their killcounts.

In this argument, small means 10-25 members, not three or four in an alt corp that runs POS operations. The latter does not count, as the griefers know that they are alts and will just dock up the POS and themselves once they get a wardec.

Sorry for going back to the front page to quote this, I merely wanted to make a point. I respect your opinion, Poetic Stanzie, but I just wanted to give my own two cents on this.
Lyrrashae
Hellstar Towing and Recovery
#37 - 2012-02-05 01:16:11 UTC
Eternum Praetorian wrote:
Lyrrashae wrote:

Chief among these seems to be that they don't/refuse to understand that, once you form a corp., you are implicitly signing yourself up as being open to the ruthless PvP competition that informs this entire game.


What are said PVP'ers competing for?

Lyrrashae wrote:
Asset-denial is a fundamental concept of warfare, and those alts' players still have the option of dropping corp to NPC, where the only legal way to get them in hisec is suicide-ganking, or non-direct-combat forms of "economic PvP"


What assets are they denying?


Oh and...

Quote:

And yet, EVE's subscriber-base has overall only grown since it went public, with the quite-proper exception of the Incarna debacle. Fancy that, eh?


This statement becomes more and more dubious, with the ever growing prevalence of multi-boxing accounts.


Time to make ISK in relative peace, resources to gather same, and the ability to travel to/from/with un-hindered.

Oh, and...

Those are still paying accounts. The influx of revenue keeps EVE alive and frees up enough resources for CCP to continue building/evolving the game.

Remember SW: G.

That will happen to us as well, if CCP dumbs EVE down for carebears who refuse to adapt and earn their freedom in this game. The ways one earns it are really not all that tedious or ornery...Roll It's 99.9...9% paying attention to one's surroundings.

Ni.

Eternum Praetorian
Doomheim
#38 - 2012-02-05 01:22:34 UTC
Quote:
Time to make ISK in relative peace, resources to gather same, and the ability to travel to/from/with un-hindered.


The PVP'ers and the rookies are competing to make isk and travel to/from/with unhindered? Just to clarify.

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Humidor Cigarillo
#39 - 2012-02-05 01:30:12 UTC
Lyrrashae wrote:

Remember SW: G.


You're going to have to elaborate on this because I fail to see the parallel you're drawing. Off the cuff "eve is dying," tripe or do you have an useful analog?
The Apostle
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#40 - 2012-02-05 01:33:12 UTC
Zirse wrote:
Here's what I think:

1)Apostle is dumb.

2)Casual players don't know enough about how to survive in lowsec/nullsec and as a consequence of this they're scared or assured that they'll lose ships within minutes-- something that's probably not far from the truth. You can't really blame them either-- you really have to buy into EVE's game-exterior of forums, guides, and 3rd party tools to get the most out of your experience. While I don't think we need any additional handholding and I do think that stuff like the MWD+Cloak, dscanning, bouncing off planets, bouncing safes, tactical bookmarks and etc could be covered or at least mentioned in game.

1) Insane. Not dumb.
2) I absolutely agree with you on those points but what has this got to do with making highsec safer?

Albeit, slighly off-topic, what I do find interesting is this belief that people don't go to null "because it's dangerous". Nope. Some might and fair enough but there is likely a very large number of players who could very easily "survive" in 0.0, they just can't be bothered with it.

It's not what 0.0 is that keeps them out, it's what it isn't.

Nullsec democracy is an oxymoron. Bloc voting for alliance candidates is Democracy for Morons 101. Let them perish in their self-interest.

Bring back Eve. OUR Eve.