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PLEX after change:

Author
JC Mieyli
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#81 - 2017-05-21 20:32:26 UTC
Teckos Pech wrote:
Beta Maoye wrote:
Before plex change, players need at least 1B to push the ingame market price up 0.01 isk. but now players need only 0.003B to push the price up 0.01 isk. It has never been easier to move the price. The cost of buy-low-sell-high game is so low that the price can be pushed up to a ridiculous level before the bubble collapse.


Roll

its how the inflation conspiracy works
were all in on it
for a fee of 500m i can get you in on it too
Shallanna Yassavi
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#82 - 2017-05-23 09:20:03 UTC
Jenn aSide wrote:
Kisar wrote:


Probably going to hit their account numbers if they don't do something to stabilize PLEX prices.


People who use plex for game time tend to over estimate how many people do the same. The last time CCP told us about it, it was less than 10%. Same for multiboxers, most people don't have multiple accounts so people shedding alt accounts wouldn't hurt much.


PLEX changes/price rises are in this way just like ISBoxer, many a isbox multiboxer predicted that EVE's pcu and sub numbers would take a hit if they banned isboxer, but that never happened, because despite the visibility of those guys (like the guy who could solo incursions), they were really only a very small part of the population.



I heard lots of the alts were repurposed into injector farms.

A signature :o

Nana Skalski
Taisaanat Kotei
EDENCOM Defensive Initiative
#83 - 2017-05-23 09:39:54 UTC
People had alts and they used to PLEX those accounts, so as PLEX prices were steadily going up and PLEXing them was harder, and CCP decided to monetize on delivering SP extractors, they extracted those SP and sold it, to buy more PLEX for less account, PLEXing into the future, to the moon and back again. They can now play Omega clones for free, for like.... ever?
KaarBaak
Squirrel Team
#84 - 2017-05-24 16:21:38 UTC
As the F2P bubble finally subsides and we move back into the lower (steadily declining) concurrent player population, it will be interesting to see the net effect of both changes on prices and gameplay.

I believe the math dictates that the net effect on CCPs bottom-line has to be "not good." If the number of concurrent players is the same as it was prior to F2P being introduced, and a portion of those current players are just on Alphas, the total paying population has to have taken a significant hit.

The microtransactions/PLEX purchasing is being used to shore-up that loss, but for how long?

KB

Dum Spiro Spero

Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#85 - 2017-05-24 16:38:47 UTC
Shallanna Yassavi wrote:
Jenn aSide wrote:
Kisar wrote:


Probably going to hit their account numbers if they don't do something to stabilize PLEX prices.


People who use plex for game time tend to over estimate how many people do the same. The last time CCP told us about it, it was less than 10%. Same for multiboxers, most people don't have multiple accounts so people shedding alt accounts wouldn't hurt much.


PLEX changes/price rises are in this way just like ISBoxer, many a isbox multiboxer predicted that EVE's pcu and sub numbers would take a hit if they banned isboxer, but that never happened, because despite the visibility of those guys (like the guy who could solo incursions), they were really only a very small part of the population.



I heard lots of the alts were repurposed into injector farms.
You heard correctly.

It's a lot more efficient, with some exceptions, to make extractor monkeys than developing characters for sale.

What I see happening is that eventually the number of players with characters SP injected to where they want will max out. This will make all the extractor monkeys pointless and not needed. So active accts will drop significantly and CCP will have to come up with a legit scheme to attract new players. Not the false active acct narrative they are currently trying to sell to those that can't look beyond the now.

Mr Epeen Cool
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#86 - 2017-05-25 14:42:05 UTC
Mr Epeen wrote:
Shallanna Yassavi wrote:
Jenn aSide wrote:
Kisar wrote:


Probably going to hit their account numbers if they don't do something to stabilize PLEX prices.


People who use plex for game time tend to over estimate how many people do the same. The last time CCP told us about it, it was less than 10%. Same for multiboxers, most people don't have multiple accounts so people shedding alt accounts wouldn't hurt much.


PLEX changes/price rises are in this way just like ISBoxer, many a isbox multiboxer predicted that EVE's pcu and sub numbers would take a hit if they banned isboxer, but that never happened, because despite the visibility of those guys (like the guy who could solo incursions), they were really only a very small part of the population.



I heard lots of the alts were repurposed into injector farms.
You heard correctly.

It's a lot more efficient, with some exceptions, to make extractor monkeys than developing characters for sale.

What I see happening is that eventually the number of players with characters SP injected to where they want will max out. This will make all the extractor monkeys pointless and not needed. So active accts will drop significantly and CCP will have to come up with a legit scheme to attract new players. Not the false active acct narrative they are currently trying to sell to those that can't look beyond the now.

Mr Epeen Cool

The problem is that it could be already late at that point

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"

Salvos Rhoska
#87 - 2017-05-25 15:04:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
The slippery slope has begun and will pick up speed.

The result being players like me who care enough and earn enough to sub, and those with so much isk to PLEX indefinately, as the remainder of players.

Activity and accounts are going to drop like flies this summer.
Scialt
Universal Sanitation Corporation
#88 - 2017-05-25 15:46:29 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
The slippery slope has begun and will pick up speed.

The result being players like me who care enough and earn enough to sub, and those with so much isk to PLEX indefinately, as the remainder of players.

Activity and accounts are going to drop like flies this summer.


You can't plex unless someone buys the plex to sell.

So I wonder how that second group works going forward to be honest. If they've already collected the plex... they're good. But if they just have the isk... if people aren't buying plexes it won't matter.

We have players buying plex with real funds to get in game funds. If the interest in doing that shrinks too much... the game is in trouble. If the players who want to play using in-game funds but never spend real money declines too much... the game is in trouble.

The number of players is important only so far as it drives plex purposes and subscriptions. Losing numbers who aren't paying real money doesn't actually matter for the health of CCP... unless their leaving makes players who are subscribing stop doing so or makes the isk price of plex go down to the point that people aren't getting enough isk to warrant the real world financial cost of plex.

I'm not willing to predict anything yet... it's an interesting situation to watch.
Salvos Rhoska
#89 - 2017-05-25 16:02:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
There is already so much unused PLEX in stockpiles (especially after Aurum stockpiles where converted), that it has skewed the market.

CCP produces PLEX, but players own, and have stockpiled, PLEX (and Aurum, as converted to PLEX now, making them even richer), WAAY beyond the rate of PLEX introduction and use per month.

I can only speculate, but I would heuristically estimate the current PLEX count in stockpiles ingame sufficient to PLEX 1 Omega character per player currently active in EVE for atleast 2 years.

What that means, is if they dumped their stockpiles in total, CCPs income would be a fraction of now, and ofc the supply would mean players could PLEX even easier, leading to less subbing and no further PLEX purchase for conversion for isk.

The hidden supply of PLEX held by players, is nigh unfathomable.
Thousands upon thousands of PLEX held by concentrated/deliberate entities that have never been introduced to the market for use.

If everyone at once dumped all their PLEX on the market, CCP would earn nigh ZERO cash for years to come.


That is how significant the PLEX holdings of serious PLEX bankers is, and how dangerous to EVE.



CCP may control the introduction of PLEX into the game, but its these entities ingame that control its value ingame.

CCP cannot/will not control the price of PLEX, it is entirely in the hands of those with PLEX stockpiles ingame.

Ergo: CCPs sub/PLEX sales are reliant on the actions of PLEX stockpilers ingame.
Thus, these PLEX stockpilers not only control the price of PLEX ingame, but also the value of subbing/buying PLEX from CCP.

TLDR: CCPs income from subs and PLEX purchase, is dependent on the actions of PLEX stockpilers ingame, as a factor of isk equity ingame, which these players control..

Shareholders may own CCP, but ingame entities own CCPs income from EVE.
Skorpynekomimi
#90 - 2017-05-25 17:21:23 UTC
I figure that as PLEX rises, then supply will increase as people get tempted to buy them with real money. Supply increases, prices drop.

Economic PVP

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#91 - 2017-05-25 17:27:57 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:


CCP may control the introduction of PLEX into the game, but its these entities ingame that control its value ingame.


Just as a point of interest here, To a large extent the OOG PLEX market is largely demand driven. The supply of PLEX is infinitely elastic--i.e. the supply curve is a horizontal line at whatever price CCP determines. Thus, demand is largely what determines the quantity of PLEX that shows up in game. As that demand curve moves around, the quantity will move around. This in turn will have an effect on the in-game price. If OOG demand flags, then supply in game will tighten. Yes that can be offset, possibly, by people who have stock piled PLEX but have not put them on the market, but that my not fully offset the effects on price.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
#92 - 2017-05-25 17:31:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Mr Epeen
Skorpynekomimi wrote:
I figure that as PLEX rises, then supply will increase as people get tempted to buy them with real money. Supply increases, prices drop.

You'd think so, right? That's how it works in the real world after all. Yet not in this game.

Since introduction PLEX has only risen, with minor blips downward. Very minor. When it comes to PLEX, supply vs demand doesn't work. Probably because ISK is fabricated from nothing in massive amounts and is removed at such a small rate as to be negligible.

Ever see what happens in the real world when a country just starts printing money to try and dig themselves out of a hole? Massive failure every time. A lesson CCP has not yet learned.

Mr Epeen Cool
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#93 - 2017-05-25 17:48:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Mr Epeen wrote:
Skorpynekomimi wrote:
I figure that as PLEX rises, then supply will increase as people get tempted to buy them with real money. Supply increases, prices drop.

You'd think so, right? That's how it works in the real world, after all. Yet not in this game.

Since introduction, PLEX has only risen, with minor blips downward. Very minor. When it comes to PLEX, supply vs demand doesn't work. Probably because ISK is fabricated from nothing in massive amounts and is removed at such a small rate as to be negligible.

Ever see what happens in the real world when a country just starts printing money to try and dig themselves out of a hole? Massive failure every time. A lesson CCP has not yet learned.

Mr Epeen Cool


Markets are dynamic, so while a rise in PLEX prices in game would, ceterius paribus, result in more people buying them out of game, that is not the only factor at work. For example, the price to get to 500 PLEX for game time has gone up. For example you have to buy slightly over 4.5 of the 110 PLEX pack to get to 500 PLEX to get 30 days of game time. That price increase is like shifting the supply curve up, which ceterius paribus, would indicate a drop in PLEX bought OOG and thus a reduction in IG supply of PLEX. So there are two counter acting effects.

Further, the current increase in PLEX prices in game could simply be the result of this supply effect--that is the OOG supply has shifted up (keep in mind the OOG supply graph will be a horizontal line at the price leve--e.g. a perfectly elastic supply graph) and thus in game supply has shifted inwards (the IG supply graph is most likely your typical upward slopping supply graph) resulting in higher prices.

Basically, one has to be careful when there is a shift in the demand (supply) curve vs. a movement along the demand (supply) curve. If demand shifts--i.e. every point on the demand curve moves left or right, then the supply side is a movement along the supply curve. Be careful reasoning from a price change, it can lead one astray.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Salvos Rhoska
#94 - 2017-05-25 17:55:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
CCP may control the introduction of PLEX into the game, but its these entities ingame that control its value ingame.
Thus, demand is largely what determines the quantity of PLEX that shows up in game.


I disagree.

Demand only determines the introduction of new PLEX, but that does not account for withheld PLEX.

If I sit on 10,000 PLEX, and have sufficient isk/income to maintain my enjoyment of EVE, I have no motivation to sell my PLEX.

As was pointed out by 2 other posters, when I withhold those 10k PLEX, I deny CCP its income from them for replacement.

I control the market, and CCPs income, by doing nothing except sitting on my 10k PLEX.
This as a culminating effect of my originally, at better rates, having withdrawn 10k PLEX from the market in the first place.

The fact I withhold 10k PLEX from the market, is why the market supply/demand is what it is today.
There is a 10k PLEX gap in the system, that was never used to sub, was never expended, sitting in my pocket.

Rates of PLEX introduction are not available to us, but it is certain that the more PLEX I withdraw from the market, and sit on, the greater the value of my existing stockpile.

The benefit is threefold.
1) The more PLEX I buy off the market, the higher the demand, as supply reduces.
2) The more PLEX I withhold, the greater its value.
3) When I sit on my PLEX, I deny the market, and CCP, in perpetuity.

Result: I control the market. I can buy when its cheap, and sell when its expensive, because I already am sitting on PLEX assets that surpass the PLEX introduction in a given period by players paying cash for it, whereas I only operate in isk.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#95 - 2017-05-25 18:05:46 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
CCP may control the introduction of PLEX into the game, but its these entities ingame that control its value ingame.
Thus, demand is largely what determines the quantity of PLEX that shows up in game.


I disagree.

Demand only determines the introduction of new PLEX, but that does not account for withheld PLEX.

If I sit on 10,000 PLEX, and have sufficient isk/income to maintain my enjoyment of EVE, I have no motivation to sell my PLEX.

As was pointed out by 2 other posters, when I withhold those 10k PLEX, I deny CCP its income from them for replacement.

I control the market, and CCPs income, by doing nothing except sitting on my 10k PLEX.
This as a culminating effect of my originally, at better rates, having withdrawn 10k PLEX from the market in the first place.

The fact I withhold 10k PLEX from the market, is why the market supply/demand is what it is today.

Rates of PLEX introduction are not available to us, but it is certain that the more PLEX I withdraw from the market, and sit on, the greater the value of my existing stockpile.


I was referring to the OOG market. There CCP is the sole supplier and they can supply as many PLEX as customers want, there is is effectively no upper bound on the number of PLEX they could supply. Thus, it is demand that determines the amount of PLEX entering the game. CCP can have an effect, but only by lowering or raising the price. That is all I meant.

As for the stock in game, some of it may be effectively sunk out of the game in an account that is say, no longer subbed and the player is no longer logging in (for now at least). It is much like ISK in the wallets of those players. It is technically in game, but there is pretty much no way for it to be in circulation and having an effect on the economy.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Salvos Rhoska
#96 - 2017-05-25 18:35:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
CCP may control the introduction of PLEX into the game, but its these entities ingame that control its value ingame.
Thus, demand is largely what determines the quantity of PLEX that shows up in game.


I disagree.

Demand only determines the introduction of new PLEX, but that does not account for withheld PLEX.

If I sit on 10,000 PLEX, and have sufficient isk/income to maintain my enjoyment of EVE, I have no motivation to sell my PLEX.

As was pointed out by 2 other posters, when I withhold those 10k PLEX, I deny CCP its income from them for replacement.

I control the market, and CCPs income, by doing nothing except sitting on my 10k PLEX.
This as a culminating effect of my originally, at better rates, having withdrawn 10k PLEX from the market in the first place.

The fact I withhold 10k PLEX from the market, is why the market supply/demand is what it is today.

Rates of PLEX introduction are not available to us, but it is certain that the more PLEX I withdraw from the market, and sit on, the greater the value of my existing stockpile.


I was referring to the OOG market. There CCP is the sole supplier and they can supply as many PLEX as customers want, there is is effectively no upper bound on the number of PLEX they could supply. Thus, it is demand that determines the amount of PLEX entering the game. CCP can have an effect, but only by lowering or raising the price. That is all I meant.

As for the stock in game, some of it may be effectively sunk out of the game in an account that is say, no longer subbed and the player is no longer logging in (for now at least). It is much like ISK in the wallets of those players. It is technically in game, but there is pretty much no way for it to be in circulation and having an effect on the economy.


1) You avoided my impetus.
2) CCP is the supplier of PLEX for cash, but not its holder once issued.
3) Players hold PLEX, and they hold them in huge amounts, far exceeding monthly introduction of PLEX.
4) PLEX is a means to pay for sub/secondary services.
5) Players that leave EVE likely dont have PLEX, or they would use them to train their characters while away.

Result:
- PLEX magnates control the supply of PLEX ingame, not CCP.
-CCPs introduction of PLEX is dependent on player purchase.
-BUT, PLEX magnates control that, because they control the INGAME market for isk equity.

If someone sits on a 1-10k PLEX stack, this has long lasting repercussions on the market by omission, as they have been purchased, introduced, but not expended.

As was pointed out by two other posters, CCP only registers PLEX as income once they are expended.
Yet there are entities sitting on thousands upon thousands of unexpended PLEXs, basically screwing CCP out of their money.
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#97 - 2017-05-26 05:55:07 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:


1) You avoided my impetus.
2) CCP is the supplier of PLEX for cash, but not its holder once issued.
3) Players hold PLEX, and they hold them in huge amounts, far exceeding monthly introduction of PLEX.
4) PLEX is a means to pay for sub/secondary services.
5) Players that leave EVE likely dont have PLEX, or they would use them to train their characters while away.

Result:
- PLEX magnates control the supply of PLEX ingame, not CCP.
-CCPs introduction of PLEX is dependent on player purchase.
-BUT, PLEX magnates control that, because they control the INGAME market for isk equity.

If someone sits on a 1-10k PLEX stack, this has long lasting repercussions on the market by omission, as they have been purchased, introduced, but not expended.

As was pointed out by two other posters, CCP only registers PLEX as income once they are expended.
Yet there are entities sitting on thousands upon thousands of unexpended PLEXs, basically screwing CCP out of their money.


Then how come the price drops when CCP has a PLEX sale?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Salvos Rhoska
#98 - 2017-05-26 06:13:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:


1) You avoided my impetus.
2) CCP is the supplier of PLEX for cash, but not its holder once issued.
3) Players hold PLEX, and they hold them in huge amounts, far exceeding monthly introduction of PLEX.
4) PLEX is a means to pay for sub/secondary services.
5) Players that leave EVE likely dont have PLEX, or they would use them to train their characters while away.

Result:
- PLEX magnates control the supply of PLEX ingame, not CCP.
-CCPs introduction of PLEX is dependent on player purchase.
-BUT, PLEX magnates control that, because they control the INGAME market for isk equity.

If someone sits on a 1-10k PLEX stack, this has long lasting repercussions on the market by omission, as they have been purchased, introduced, but not expended.

As was pointed out by two other posters, CCP only registers PLEX as income once they are expended.
Yet there are entities sitting on thousands upon thousands of unexpended PLEXs, basically screwing CCP out of their money.


Then how come the price drops when CCP has a PLEX sale?


A better question would be how come the prices rise back even above the pre-sale price afterwards.
Jeremiah Saken
The Fall of Leviathan
#99 - 2017-05-26 06:44:10 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Teckos Pech wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:


1) You avoided my impetus.
2) CCP is the supplier of PLEX for cash, but not its holder once issued.
3) Players hold PLEX, and they hold them in huge amounts, far exceeding monthly introduction of PLEX.
4) PLEX is a means to pay for sub/secondary services.
5) Players that leave EVE likely dont have PLEX, or they would use them to train their characters while away.

Result:
- PLEX magnates control the supply of PLEX ingame, not CCP.
-CCPs introduction of PLEX is dependent on player purchase.
-BUT, PLEX magnates control that, because they control the INGAME market for isk equity.

If someone sits on a 1-10k PLEX stack, this has long lasting repercussions on the market by omission, as they have been purchased, introduced, but not expended.

As was pointed out by two other posters, CCP only registers PLEX as income once they are expended.
Yet there are entities sitting on thousands upon thousands of unexpended PLEXs, basically screwing CCP out of their money.


Then how come the price drops when CCP has a PLEX sale?


A better question would be how come the prices rise back even above the pre-sale price afterwards.

supply/demand, with PLEX sale there is more PLEX on market when sale ends prices return to previous state. PLEX is like gold in RL. It's been rising in price since introducion. If I would invest my ISK into faction BS 2 years (machariel for example) it would be terrible loss. PLEX on the other hand...

"I am tormented with an everlasting itch for things remote. I love to sail forbidden seas..." - Herman Melville

Salvos Rhoska
#100 - 2017-05-26 10:13:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Teckos:

Just realised I answered your question with a question, which is disrespectful.

The answer to your question is that PLEX sales spur purchase of PLEX from CCP by players whom immediately sell them for isk.
Supply on the market increases substantially and rapidly, as they compete each other down so as to get their isk as fast as possible.